• Are Special Wars Really New and Special or Are They Old Dirty Tricks?

    John Schindler, the former NSA official and professor at the US Navy Academy, has a theory of "special wars" — basically running wars like the Russians do in order to be able to fight them.

    Except, I'm quite sure neither he nor any supporters would like that reductive description of the concept.

    I love John Schindler's stuff — don't get me wrong. I always marvel that someone that young who didn't directly fight the Soviets in the dissident trenches understands so much about them and their methods, and is even able to teach others about it methodically. It restores my hope in the NSA after Snowden, which for me, like CableGate, is at least in part about the failure of government to keep out the adversarial hacker culture that accompanies wikification and moving life online.

    Schindler has been absolutely right on Snowden and all things related to it, so I take seriously any theory he comes up with about how to fight the Russians better, especially now that they have really gone full-tilt into enemy mode. I'm all for containment, Cold War, deterrence — the works because all of that is required with this kind of real threat to the West.

    So how hard will it be to put "special war" over politically, given the Obama "progressives" and what is to come if they succeed again in 2016?

    Here's where Schindler first wrote about it at length and more this week since it was covered in the New York Times.

    I've been thinking about it since last year, and have questions about it:

    Ever since I heard of Schindler’s “special war” theory last September, I’ve pondered whether I like it or not — but then, war isn’t something you “like like” – as you do a Facebook kitty. There’s the Catholic theory of “a just war” which should have as its goals the ending of war. Does it fit?

    I wonder how some of its aspects are to be distinguished from what used to be called “CIA dirty tricks” — and maybe it’s not. For those who don’t want to endorse drones and mass killing, “special wars” is an attractive alternative. And indeed, any moral person has to ask why we wouldn’t opt for “special wars” that are more efficient, require much less troops, seem brainier, and are more pin-pointed. That is, a drone might have “collateral damage” or hit women and children or wedding guests while going after the fighters who deliberately mingle among them — there’s lots of angst about drones become of the remoteness of the operation of them. Then massive numbers of troops — as in the “surge” in Afghanistan — that just seems to get lots of our soldiers killed, and not win the war anyway — precisely because we live in the age of “special wars” which the Russians and the Taliban for that matter are really good at.

    So wouldn’t we rather have an intelligence agent parachute in and assassinate the Pakistani ISI operative who is sustaining the Taliban, or infiltrate a political party, or get inside the prime minister’s office, or whatever it is that you do, instead of massing troops around borders and trying to drone away militants. In the old days, that’s what the CIA did, and it worked in some places, but it got a bad rap.

    That’s my question then. Once “special wars” gets going, how will it deal with the bad rap? The Russians and even some Ukrainians think the US has mercenaries parachuted into southeastern Ukraine already (we don’t); what if we start really doing that sort of thing?

    Next, there is so much wrong with the military — scandals in the top leadership, suicides, massacres of civilians, PTSD– as I’ve noted before, I think this is a mismatch between the reality of what war is, and the PR campaign that the armed forces insist on retaining, which implies that you “learn a skill” and “get a job” through the military — meaning that the poor people who come into this setting think their goal is to get a skill and be assured of a job, instead of going into dangerous places and killing people. So that begs the question: can we make “special wars” with *this* army?

    In general, I’d like to see less contractors in the armed services and government in general — most problems we’ve had — think of Snowden – are related to them. So would “special wars” be done with contractors? I think it would be better to have permanent, trained, regular armed services doing this.

    We also need more HUMINT, foreign languages, education — how will that be assured? Can existing academies like West Point create the cadres of the “special wars” or does some other academy have to be created?

    Finally, what about the moral problem of “becoming like them”? The Russians are good at “special wars” because they’re cynical nihilists exploiting illiberal ideas like nationalism or Eurasianism. Can you get good at “special wars” and remain decent?

     

    So basically, it comes down to this: if Schindler means that we should get better at fighting the Russians who use this whole array of Bolshevik methods, from disinformation to masking to lying to agitation and propaganda — by using more counter-intelligence and counter-propaganda, I'm for that. But how much will we be lying, cheating, disinforming, faking, masking, ourselves then?

    Would it involve committing terrorism against civilians?

    That is, I'm for exposing propaganda, calling out lies, vigorously challenging all the bullshit coming out of the Kremlin and broadcasting much more of it than we do. I'm for getting a lot more clever about dealing with this ruthless enemy in the Kremlin. Some of that requires clandestine work that the public will have to take on faith needs to be done, and the less they know about it, the better. But how to get that through in the age of Snowden, where the default of most young people is to distrust government and imagine the US is the greatest evil in the world?

     

     

  • Save Uzbek Journalist Dilmurod Sayyid, Ill in Prison

    Dilmurod

    Dilmurod Sayyid. Photo via Uznews.net

    I just want to draw everyone's attention to the urgent case of Dilmurod Sayyid, an Uzbek journalist who exposed corruption in agribusiness in Uzbekistan and has been a political prisoner for many years. Committee to Protect Journalists has included him in their list of reporters jailed for their work.

    I just saw on Twitteran appeal in Uzbek on the BBC World Service for Uzbekistan posted by Khayrullo Fayz (@xayrullofayz), an Uzbek journalist, who summarized it for me in a few lines in Russian.

    The original Uzbek language story is here. Perhaps someone who reads Uzbek can supply more detail.

    Khayrullo did give me a summary of a few lines in Russian.

    As far as I understand, Sayyid's brother just visited him recently and found that he has lost 55 kilograms. He had already ill with tuberculosis. He has lost hope of getting out of prison.

    As some may know, several years ago Dilmurod suffered the tragic loss of his wife and small daughter when they were killed in a car accident on their way to visit him.  He was not allowed to attend the funeral. Dilmurod was sentenced in 2009 to 12.5 years in prison on charges said by human rights monitors to be fabricated.

    The US and other Western governments do work quietly to get prisoners of conscience released in Uzbekistan and has had some success, even recently. So I hope some attention can get Dilmurod's name put forward and appeals going out on his behalf ASAP.

    P.S. I've just found an English-language summary of the story here.

    – In December, I was able to see my brother in a prison in Karshi . I was given a date for four hours. In October, he had his chest x-rayed, and the doctors said that the results came out good. Therefore, after the Sangorod he was not returned to the colony for tuberculosis patients in Navoi, but was transferred to a labor colony in Karshi. During the last meeting I prepared some mean, we sat and talked. But he ate almost nothing. Brother was very thin, weighs about 55-56 kilograms, and has become so small, his hair all white. Dilmurod said that he was  working in the colony, perhaps he did not want to upset me and said that he was not given the hard work, – says Obid Saidov.

    Note the difference between lost 55 kg and weighs 55 kg. This should be clarified but the bottom line is that he is very sick and has lost a lot of weight.

     

  • Why is Our Military So Screwed up? (Response to Schindler’s “On Conscription and Military Effectiveness”)

    Let me put it in a nutshell — I'm a supporter of national armies, I'm not a pacifist, even if I have objections to the war in Iraq or aspects of the war in Afghanistan and the drones program on moral grounds. I think we live in a dangerous world with really awful and nasty enemies that we didn't create by warring against them or their proxies, who are really evil all on their own. I'm not so sure the surge was a great idea, and we pretty much lost the war in Afghanistan, which I find awful, as I do know something about this region, and I think it will definitely go downhill into worse security and more instability and poverty for the people of Eurasia and South Asia.

    But while we can argue about whether this or that war makes sense, or this or that way of pursuing the war, or whether "special wars" (clandestine and even illegal intelligence operations) have to take the place of massive armies marching in the night and people dying in the mud, there has to be a discussion about what I see is a looming moral problem.

    Why is the military so messed up? We've had a military that has *created* and *not saved us from* harm by giving us Manning, Snowden, McCrystal, Petraeus, Bales, and Carey — to mention just some of the most lurid, most destructive figures who have been through our armed forces and have objectively wound up hurting their own countries tremendously.

    Why is that? Why did this happen?

    So let me go through my thinking on this:

    I know it's Christmas, but I really couldn't take it more — the lastest "returning soldier surprise" story was the straw that broke the camel's back for me.

    I know for some it's tantamount to treason to question these heart-wretching but usually kitschy stories that appear practically every day, especially in mass media and local newspapers, but I do. I really find them reprehensible. I always have. They've always irritated, then angered me. (They irritate me as much as the sly and manipulative "Support Our Troops" meme which witless Dem operatives purveyed in lieu of a real peace movement — hey, be against wars if you want, but at least have the decency not to pretend that you are "for" soldiers as if they are like union employees just "doing a job."

    So I'm grateful to this blog post by former NSA analyst and now professor at the Navy College John Schindler today for sharpening my thinking on this.

    Here's why all those stories about soldiers surprising their little kids in their elementary schools with an unexpected early return home, or soldiers appearing suddenly at their mom's birthday party, or soldiers suddenly showing up to propose marriage, or soldiers suddenly appearing at their brother's workplace — why none of them work for me.

    That is, sure, they're nice, and no doubt the people in the stories really appreciate them and are awfully glad to have their loved ones home surprising them like this.

    But their institutionalization as a meme, as a staple of culture, as a news diet, as a kind of justification of everything — that just doesn't work.

    And here's why — first, two big reasons — and then the rests of the reasons why I find the military just so screwed up these days and think it should change:

    1) Because they didn't HAVE to go to these wars. They are in a voluntary army. They were not conscripted. Especially women could CHOOSE to stay home with a NEWBORN BABY, for example, good Lord, no war is worth leaving a nursing baby for when you don't have to! A newly-married husband doesn't have to join the army, either, he can stay home with his new wife. A father of two elementary school kids really does have choices and doesn't need to ensure that they grow up without him and risk turning into little felons or drug abusers.

    And so on. They chose to go overseas to fight in a war, then they should accept that this will mean hardship and even possibly deprivation and grief for their families and loved ones. That's why their sudden showings and media-saturated surprises just don't add up. The poignancy part, I mean. The drama. There was no need, because you didn't really have to go.

    Why not do the hard job of staying home and taking care of your responsibilities and getting a good education and a good job on your own? Then maybe you'd have something to bring to — instead of taking from — the armed services.

    2) Because the armed forces have engaged in a massive public relations program for years which amounts to this: join the army, learn a trade, get an education for free, and get a job when you get out. This seems really attractive to a lot of people. But it's hugely misleading. They paint a picture as if you have to go through a bit of a rugged boot camp, sure, but then you are taught all these interesting skills useful in the private sector. Yes, you have to go overseas, but you'll either be on a ship somewhere, or you'll be in Germany, or maybe South Korea, or maybe merely just sitting in Texas. or maybe you'll go to Afghanistan, but not very long, and in any event, even if you do, you don't have a huge chance of being killed. Then college– paid for — and that great job! With that great resume-booster provided free by Uncle Sam.

    This "learn a skill, get a job" stuff is very deep-seated, and you find all sorts of people drawing on it, mainly in the lower classes,the poor, or the clueless middle class that is turning into lower class due to recessions and lay-offs. You even hear people tell themselves that they have "no choice" but to go "get a job" in the army because there are "no jobs" elsewhere.

    I personally find this bullshit, as those who want to work can get jobs — they just might not  be jobs with free education and exotic travel and missions to go with them.

    3) It's my firm conviction that the reason we have so many people having psychotic breaks in the armed forces, and going crazy and killing civilians, or coming home and committing suicide, or suffering from PTSD and substance abuse, is because of the massive disconnect between the advertisements, and the shill about "learn a trade, get a job" and the reality which is — be trained in something that might help our mission of killing people, kill then, then go home and resume your normal life.

    We're unable to create a valid and efficient killing machine when necessary, and what we have instead is an army of job trainees who seem shocked and surprise that their internships and apprenticeships have IEDs in them.

    I think this goes up the chain, and the sense of "you are special, we trained you, and now you're fabulous" sets up a situation where you feel you can have affairs, get drunk, be abusive, not do your duty, all because it's about you, and not anything else.

    I really think the army has to step back from how they do this recruitment, how they set up expectations, and change the message and the perception managements. And I'm confident if they do, they will get better people and better outcomes. But this will require a wrenching re-evaluation and changes of policy.

    They tried "the few, the proud, the Marines" to emphasize how they really needed good, intelligent, skillful, rare people, and not dumbasses who take drugs and can't hold a job – but then they forgot that there's still the other three branches of armed service to fill — and they needed more than just a "few". Somehow, the pumping up of egos involved in getting "the few, the proud" led us not to Navy SEALS killing bin Ladn, or whatever our "gold standard" is for selfless, unsung heroics of good people doing their duty, but has led us to generals who behave outrageously and subject their nation to indelible humiliation and denigration.

    I live next door to a National Guard depot and I see the kinds of people there, and my son has various friends who have "deployed," as they describe it. How can I describe this? Well, the very word explains the mindset. These are people who either barely graduated from school, are from poor or immigrant families, who don't have a lot of prospects, who for various reasons of background needed the security of having everything organized for them. They don't say, "I'm going into the army to serve my country, it's my duty." They don't say "We have a mission to fulfill, these terrorists need to be shown who's boss" or "if we don't stop the creeping menace of Islamism, our own freedoms will be in jeopardy," they say "I'm in training"and "I'm being deployed" in the same tone of voice as people describe being sent for training and then a job in another state if they decide to work or IBM or Accenture.

    They've absorbed the recruitment message and they embody it — and it's a problematic message because we all know that they won't get a job with this "training" after they return and we're lucky if they even manage to fight the war they're plopped into.  Instead of getting jobs and going on with their lives, they have an excellent chance of coming back with substance abuse problems, PTSD, and emotional problems that if anything, prevent them from ever becoming productive members of society.

    4) I'm not a pacifist, and I don't have a problem with people deciding to serve in the army for whatever reason; indeed, our national security depends on it.  Neither of my grandfathers served in World War II, I have no idea why, but apparently their ages were such that they were a bit too old and had large families to support and worked in factories. My father served in the Korean War. His father had died in an accident and he had his mother and disabled sister to support. They rented out the top floor of their house and lived downstairs, he went to high school and worked nights at Wendt's, a dairy, as a soda jerk. He lied about his age to get into the army at 17 even before graduation but he always said he was "performing his duty for his country" and always understood it as the just cause of fighting Communism even if he was in fact a kid who needed skills and a job.

    He got them. He also got the GI bill and then graduated with a degree in engineering. The people who didn't die in a war like the Korean War continued as walking advertisements — join the army, learn a skill, get a free education, get a job. It worked — at least, better than it works now. My father was good with languages, he passed a proficiency test and was sent to Russian school and worked as a linguist for the Army Air Corps (predecessor of the Air Force) in intelligence. He flew up in planes and listened to Soviet pilots chattering and swearing and reported on what they were saying. He left the army with varicose veins from all the marching and sitting in cramped airplanes and jumping out of them now and then, and then went into civilian life to work as a ceramic engineer until his death. He always spoke of the army as a duty, not a career enhancement, and as something that had a lot of suffering and unpleasantness in it.

    5) I've come to the idea of supporting conscription not because of the notion John Schindler mentions of saying "if the elites had their own sons serve, they'd have less wars or be more cautious about getting into wars." I don't think that's a proven hypothesis. After all, the Queen of England had her relatives serving in Afghanistan and that didn't make the UK decide they shouldn't get involved in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

    I think it's more like this, however: before, armed service was a path to success — it meant you could run for political office or advance in a company because you were believed to be merited and trustworthy. But after Vietnam, that ceased. And with the last two wars, it didn't work, even with very decent people deploying; they didn't go run for Congress. I remember meeting a recent new member of Congress at the Foreign Policy Institute who had actually served in the army and it was a total shock — no Congress people do nowadays. And that's because it's not viewed as a career path — oh, except for my son's friends who five minutes ago were hanging around Union looking to score weed and playing with iPhones and dropping out of school, and now are supposedly trained enough and smart enough to fight a war. They are getting training, and free education, and they'll get a job, right? But they could barely graduate or get a GED in the NYC high school system, which is an abomination…

    So my thinking about conscription works like this: if you had conscription, then you'd get lots more people, smart people, people without illusions that they will "get a job" from serving in the army, people who "get it" about what an army really is for, people who can realize that there's a job to do, a hard and unpleasant and risky job, before they return to civilian life which they would have made for themselves *without the armed forces*.

    6) I don't have illusions about the draft. I lived through the Vietnam era, don't forget. I remember that my classmates brothers were drafted, and some of them got killed and it was very sad. Of course, if you were rich and connected, you could get out of the draft, or you could just guard a swimming pool in Texas (a famous example always discussed in that era in our town based on some guy who supposedly really did that). You didn't have to be rich and famous, either, because of the concept of draft deferment if you were in college, or if you had a teaching job. That was how my uncle avoided the draft — first going to college, then teaching elementary school. I don't think he particularly enjoyed teaching, which was hard and low-paid, but I think he preferred that to going to Vietnam and having a chance of getting killed.

    Remember they fixed THAT problem of too many deferments by starting a lottery. And that was really scary. Suddenly, our music teacher and band leader could get drafted. Our neighbours could get drafted. And did. And then some got killed. Of course there was a fair amount of opposition to the war; I went to my first anti-war demonstration when I was 14. But by and large, in small towns outside the big cities, people did their duty. That's how they understood it. They hoped for the best.  I worked in the US Post Office with a lot of veterans and disabled veterans, because they got points awarded on the civil service exam for the USPS  so that they'd have jobs, and these were serious people who served their country and did their duty.

    But "Vietnam vet" in a lot of cases came to mean people who were crazy, drug-abusers, off the grid, bikers, whatever. This idea of "learn a trade, get a job," fell away…

    7) Not that many people were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan by contrast with other wars. But they were maimed and killed more in real time on the air on instant media and social media and it therefore loomed larger perhaps. And they did in fact get killed in increasing numbers — numbers that flew in the fact of that "the few, the proud" propaganda and the "learn a trade, get a job" shill.

    I remember trying to raise this issue with Richard Holbrooke. In the little neighbourhood where I spend my Thanksgivings, three men out of five who deployed together were killed, leaving widows and children. That sure wasn't worth it, because we lost.

    8) Our armed forces are really, really hurting. And I don't think that's because they are "stretched thin" in "two long wars". That is, sure, they take their toll. World War II was "only" six years and the Korean War was "only" three years — but more people died in them than in these wars.  I actually think the "set and setting" problem of the Army recruiment propaganda and the kinds of people they wind up attracting with that misleading promise of "skills and jobs" are central to the problem. The army reflects the problem of society in the family, education, the work place, but itself is serving as an incubator worsening them.

    Chelsea Manning is a classic example. She was smart, actually had computer and analytical skills largely self-taught on "the Internet", but was an EDP, to use the cops' lingo, an "emotionally disturbed person" who flopped around not knowing what to do, with an alcoholic and abusive dad or something, with identity issues, who felt the army would not only give her "a good education and a good job" where the regular economy hadn't, but would also "pull her together". It didn't. The rest is history.

    Edward Snowden is another good example. We never learn how this high-school drop-out, also with an absentee dad, who seemed to also have good self-taught Internet-learned skills, felt he had to go in the army — where he promptly broke both legs, instead of "learning a skill and getting a good job". Even so, he migrated toward related national security work, but questions remain: how clueless do you have to be to break not one, but two legs in basic training? Maybe you're "an indoor cat" who shouldn't have joined and no one should have let you? Or how negligent do the armed services have to be? We don't know. But Ed was not "good people" for the real job of the army, which is serving your country and fighting a war, not getting an all-expense paid training and job placement program.

    And there are more, and higher-level fuck-ups — but first, a personal story.

    8)  My own son went and joined the Marines but didn't finish the process and now is ineligible for service. I wasn't thrilled with the idea, but he was of age, and it was his decision and I thought (I'm not immune to the propaganda, either), he might "learn a trade and get a good job" where these things had failed in civilian life.

    He went through various physical and written exams, briefing sessions, interviews, etc. and was getting ready to ship out to Parris Island. But then due to a confluence of various circumstances in his own life and the draw-down being announced, there were delays and then he began to get cold on the idea. For one, the recruiting officer began to tell him that he really should stay in college, then go in the Marines, it would only be better for him to go into higher-level training. Also, I won an electric motorcycle at TechCrunch Disrupt with the express pitch that I hoped it would be something that would keep him out of the Marines because I didn't want him to be sent to Afghanistan and be one of the last people to become disabled or die there (and I guess fate rewarded us there…Man proposes, God disposes…)

    I had reasons to believe this would be the case that he would die, or worse, become disabled. Naturally he had more of a chance of becoming disabled in a motorcycle accident, and sadly that's exactly what happened.

    But even as he used that argument to persuade me that Afghanistan was going to be "safe,"  I could see that for this kid, even my own son whose father was jailed in a Soviet psychiatric hospital because he refused to go in the army when Czechoslovakia was being invaded, there was only the haziest notion of the war in Afghanistan, despite all my work in human rights and the UN and discussing the issues at home, and only the foggiest concept of any mission or duty. To country, to society, let alone to vulnerable people overseas whose country was overrun with thugs.

    But there was much, much more prevelant in his thinking was that he was going to "get training" and "get a good job". The Cisco network training which his high school provided — which he didn't finish — didn't grab him. But somehow, the army — which would amount to the same thing only with the chance to get up early in the morning, eat grub, run around like hell and then have a chance to die — was going to do it.

    In real life, in the civilian sector, prospects for somebody with less than a year in college, which he didn't like, were not great — he worked variously many hours a week for low pay as an insurance salesman, a cell phone salesman, an electricity salesman, a computer repairman and it was all going nowhere. Occupy sent a very powerful message even to this family that definitely opposed Occupy and its Marxist politics: if you load up on college debt, you may not be abe to pay it back for years and you may not get a good job. The army looked attractive in those circumstances, when your prospects were years more of selling insurance and going to school nights. It's too bad they were winding down the wars, eh? Everywhere the message went out to stop recruiting so heavily and now they can afford to pick better people.

    Recruiting officers tell kids now — hey, go back to school. Hey, you have that drug charge or that robbery charge? Well, we can still let you in, but now we're going to look for people with cleaner records. You didn't do very well on the test because you didn't pay attention and barely graduated from high school? Well, we're going to find people who are better than you now.  But that isn't what they did for the last ten years, and it shows.

    9) The people at the top in the military have let us down appallingly. I am still trying to understand this. How could this happen? Some years ago I was interviewed by Rolling Stone and appeared in a story there about Second Life and I know exactly what they do with you: they make fun of you. Deliberately. I knew that going into it. That's what they do if you aren't a rock star, duh! I can't imagine being so stupid as to hang out with their reporters and drink and tell them stories. You'd have to be ignorant or so vain that they could play on your vanity. So much for McChrystal, who I thought was a lot smarter.

    Petraeus — what the hell? You have this exemplary career, you have this incredibly important duty to perform with many people depending on you and your country's safety and reputation at stake, and you screw it up by letting this manipulative biographer get you into an affair and then expose you to scandal? What? How vain and stupid do you have to be?

    Bales. You sound like a person who had lots of problems before you deployed that you thought the army would fix for you. Either your vanity and belief you could do what you couldn't led you to back-to-back deployments, or somebody in charge of deployment had the poor judgement to deploy you (what, they ran out of job-seekers and stupid drug users in New York City?) But all in all, the set and setting seems to have contributed to the appalling massacre of innocent Afghan civilians you should have been taking the utmost care to protect. Didn't you have any sense of duty?

    And Carey. Gosh, I could almost understand the back stories of Manning and the others, maybe it's just human nature. But my God, what an asshole. Getting drunk with the Russians?! With known operatives serving as honey pots from the GRU? While you are responsible for nuclear weapons?! What are you fucking stupid? Or is it so vain that you think you can do no wrong? I'm just BAFFLED.

    So you can see that I find a theme here — vanity. Telling little darlings they are wonderful. Special. Only the few, the proud. That they will advance their lovely careers. That they will turn from losers into productive members of society because they will "get trained and get a job". It reminds me of all the Yuppie moms in the playground with their endless ego-boosting of their toddlers, and their endless, inexhaustive ability to empathize with the wants and needs of their little monsters instead of setting limits and insisting on good behaviour.

    "Use your indoor voice, Tommy" or "We don't throw sand, Janie" or "what do you need, apple juice? A graham cracker? a Samsung tablet?" instead of getting a "No, stop that, or we're leaving" or "no, snack-time is at 4 pm, it's not time yet."

    You know what I mean?

    And all of this is horribly, horribly wrong. We need to change all this, radically. From top to bottom. it isn't even so much about changing to a draft versus voluntary — it's about THIS. It's about GETTING RID of the idea that the army is here to serve YOU, instead of you SERVING THE ARMY. It's about finding people who could get a job in civilian life, but choose to do this other, harder thing because they love their country. It's about setting up the expectations right, and weeding out the EDPs better. It's about saying "You're not going to get anything out of this, and might lose your leg." It's about ending the "heroics" of the "surprise dad" and that brave soul learning to walk on artificial limbs who had the misfortune to have a "training accident" while he was in his "job program". It's about creating fighting men and women who fight like they're going to win, who get that war is sacrifice, not self-aggrandizement.

    It's a hard and tricky thing. On the one hand, you want to instill a sense of mission, of responsibility, of America's role in the world. On the other hand, you don't want this:

    Ms. [REDACTED] states that Maj Gen Carey was visibly agitated about the long delay at Zurich, he appeared drunk and, in the public area, talked loudly about the importance of his position as commander of the only operational nuclear force in the world and that he saves the world from war every day.

    Or this:

    “I am not trying to bring down the NSA, I am working to improve the NSA,” he said. “I am still working for the NSA right now. They are the only ones who don’t realize it.”

    “That whole question — who elected you? — inverts the model,” he said. “They elected me. The overseers.”

    He named the chairmen of the Senate and House intelligence committees.

    Dianne Feinstein elected me when she asked softball questions” in committee hearings, he said. “Mike Rogers elected me when he kept these programs hidden. . . . The FISA court elected me when they decided to legislate from the bench on things that were far beyond the mandate of what that court was ever intended to do. The system failed comprehensively, and each level of oversight, each level of responsibility that should have addressed this, abdicated their responsibility.”

    And so on. You get the idea.

    People who have a sense of a purpose higher than themselves before which they become humble, not arrogant.

    It used to be religious upbringing accomplished this, or perhaps life on a family farm. Then maybe school or civic clubs could provide it. Nothing provides it anymore.

    There's just the Internet.

    I'm not an expert and I don't know how this can be accomplished. But not only experts should get to decide these things. All citizens get a say in their votes and in their freedom of expression.

     

  • Indian Revisionism; American Revisionism

    I find a lot of revisionism of history by the Twittering masses, especially about the war in Afghanistan.

    The average idiot on social media believes that the US has killed the most people in the world (false) and that the US has especially killed a lot of the people in Afghanistan (false) which was all our fault because we somehow lured the Soviets into the war (false), supported Osama bin Ladn against them (false) and then caused the Taliban to be born as well (false).

    All of these anti-American fictions never start with a firm grasp of the Soviet communist terror, where some 50 million people were killed, and never have a handle on the 10 years of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, where one million civilians were killed.

    Here's a simple powerpoint in case you never studied history.

    In 1999, the largest number of refugees in the world were from Afghanistan. That's before 9/11, that's before the US invasion of Afghanistan, that's due to the Soviet war which ended in 1989.

    One of the things I find most irksome is a certain kind of leftist Indian revision about the Soviet Union, the war in Afghanistan, and the United States.

    Of all people, they should know better, as they were right there in the region, and knew exactly what was going on all around them. Indeed, there are intellectuals who do grasp it.

    But there's a concerned faction that for all kinds of domestic and international political reasons is trying to shift the focus to the US.

    So you get an article like this in the New Yorker by Pankaj Mishra.

    When, during the short ensuing war between India and Pakistan, Nixon implicitly threatened India by ordering a nuclear aircraft carrier, the U.S.S. Enterprise, into the Bay of Bengal, millions of Indian minds went dark with geopolitical paranoia. Nixon and his national-security adviser, Henry Kissinger, became, as Mistry puts it, “names to curse with.” Mistry’s protagonist amplifies a commonplace conjecture: “The CIA plan” involves supporting Pakistan against India, because India’s friendship with the Soviet Union “makes Nixon shit, lying awake in bed and thinking about it. His house is white, but his pyjamas become brown every night.” . . .

    Yes, Kissinger and Nixon did bad things, we all recognize that. Yes, they are responsible for wars and loss of life. A huge protest movement was mounted against them, successfully, in the end, by the way.

    But let's put this era in a much more credible perspective, shall we?

    The reason the nefarious Kissinger and Nixon could get other members of government and the general public to be reluctant about India, and support its enemy Pakistan strategically, is because India was busy friending up the Soviet Union then, as the author admits.

    That was a bad thing the author doesn't admit.

    At that time not only did the Kremlin preside over a vicious system responsible for the unjust jailing and torture of tens of thousands, it had behind it the millions of people massacred by Lenin and Stalin. Some friend. Friending that friend would rightfully make anyone else who wanted freedom and liberty for all to be cold, i.e. as in Cold War.

    You can point to all kinds of things the US did wrong in Pakistan. But if you airbrush out of your analysis the fact that the Soviets KILLED ONE MILLION AFGHANS AND FORCED FIVE MILLION TO FLEE during their war, you are completely dishonest intellectually.

    Friending Pakistan to address Afghanistan is the least bad of a lot of bad options. You know, there's friending Uzbekistan, too. Or Iran. Okay, then. Least bad.

    In the New Yorker piece, the author makes it seem as if Jimmy Carter somehow "lured" the Soviets into this war because he was happy to seem them "mired down" as the US had been in Viet Nam. It implies there was something the US could do to stop that war. Um, what would that be, a resolution at the UN Security Council?! The US role in funding the rebels was hardly significant — like I said, ONE MILLION were killed. If the US were able to do more, obviously so many wouldn't have been killed. But it was pin-pricking the opposite nuclear power and never going to do much.

    In an op-ed piece in the New York Times, you get the same context-free thinking, blaming Bangladesh entirely on Kissinger and Nixon, when even Wikipedia doesn't do that. Supporting murderous Pakistani generals isn't the same thing as committing massacres — which in fact were set in motion by factors outside of the US — and start with India's partitioning out of Muslims.

    Writes Bass:

    As recently declassified documents and White House tapes show, Nixon and Kissinger stood stoutly behind Pakistan’s generals, supporting the murderous regime at many of the most crucial moments. This largely overlooked horror ranks among the darkest chapters in the entire cold war.

    Of course, no country, not even the United States, can prevent massacres everywhere in the world — but this was a close American ally, which prized its warm relationship with the United States and used American weapons and military supplies against its own people.

    Nixon and Kissinger were not just motivated by dispassionate realpolitik, weighing Pakistan’s help with the secret opening to China or India’s pro-Soviet leanings. The White House tapes capture their emotional rage, going far beyond Nixon’s habitual vulgarity. In the Oval Office, Nixon told Kissinger that the Indians needed “a mass famine.” Kissinger sneered at people who “bleed” for “the dying Bengalis.”

    They were unmoved by the suffering of Bengalis, despite detailed reporting about the killing from Archer K. Blood, the brave United States consul general in East Pakistan. Nor did Nixon and Kissinger waver when Kenneth B. Keating, a former Republican senator from New York then serving as the American ambassador to India, personally confronted them in the Oval Office about “a matter of genocide” that targeted the Hindu minority among the Bengalis.

    After Mr. Blood’s consulate sent an extraordinary cable formally dissenting from American policy, decrying what it called genocide, Nixon and Kissinger ousted Mr. Blood from his post in East Pakistan. Kissinger privately scorned Mr. Blood as “this maniac”; Nixon called Mr. Keating “a traitor.”

    All of this may well be true, but Bass must never have ready any other divulged Kissinger comments if he thinks this represents a special animus; Kissinger also infamously suggested that even if the Soviet Jews were killed in large numbers as in the Holocaust, it would not be a fight for the US due to Soviet nuclear power.

    See, when a scholar like this cannot accept the reality of the massive crimes against humanity of the Soviets, their invasions of countries and coercive sphere of influence and their war in Afghanistan, then I find myself wishing for a second opinion. This scholar dismisses concerns about India's pro-Soviet leanings.

    But these are real concerns. It doesn't matter if Nixon is cynical about them; they are real. They are about mass crimes against humanity and a bloody oppressive system that you deter, and do not let spread if you value freedom. Scholars like Bass don't have a feel for this reality.

    I'm happy to remember what Nixon and Kissinger did in those horrible days if Prof. Bass will zoom out and remember what the Soviets did in their terrible days before and during this period.

    Amy Goodman and Alan Nairn place the darkest hour in a different place — Indonesia, and the massacre of East Timor by the generals backed by the US. It was their direct experience in those atrocities that set them up for a life-long career of anti-government activism and the creation of Democracy Now! which champions Manning and Snowden.

    So for them, too, nothing exists but the sins of US pragmatism backing up this or that awful regime in the Cold War, but the back story to that — the Soviet Union and the worst crimes against humanity — never exist. It's those crimes that enabled both sincere and cynical reactions including the backing of autocratic regimes.

    I could add that Amy, Jeremy Scahill and the rest of this crowd could care less when the US backs the Russian regimes, responsible for the massacres of tens of thousands — hundreds of thousands — of Chechens. And of course they were all MIA and preoccupied only with the one-sided peace-movement in the Soviet era and never did anything about the previous war in Afghanistan.

    Those like Bass who focus only on American evils in a complex story like Bangladesh and tend only to worry about due process for Islamists rather than justice for all also leave out the work of feminist scholars such as Gita Sagahl.

    In openDemocracy recently, I argued that Bangladesh was the forgotten template for 20th century war. Long before the killings and mass rape that took place in former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, Bangladesh showed what happens when militias allied to the army are involved in a conflict[4].  Although contemporary witnesses, including a number of US diplomats[5]  were convinced that they were witnessing genocide[6] – that is the deliberate destruction of a national, ethnic, racial or religious group; by the twenty first century, the conflict in Bangladesh had largely disappeared from international concern.   A BBC website defining genocide, for instance, failed to include Bangladesh even among a list of possible genocidal campaigns. Since 1972, not a single human rights organisation has done any investigation of the conflict, although they have been harsh in their comments about the establishment of an international crimes tribunal to try alleged war criminals.

    The Pakistan military, one of the chief perpetrators of the conflict, is out of reach of the Bangladeshi authorities.    Nine men have been charged and numerous others, including at least two men resident in Western countries, are being investigated. All those charged are Bengalis. They are opposition leaders mostly of the Jamaat e Islami, a transnational fundamentalist political party, allied to the Muslim Brotherhood and often seen by Western governments as ‘moderate Islamists’. In Pakistan, in Britain and in the US, those accused of grave crimes enjoy almost complete impunity[7]. It is only in Bangladesh that there is an attempt at holding them accountable.  A mass movement, conducted almost entirely by survivors of the genocide, and energised by a new generation of younger activists, made the trial of alleged war criminals a major issue in the last elections.

    I'm not an expert on this region or these wars. I'm reading along with everyone else. But I see revisionism when I see the context of Soviet crimes against humanity and the genuine and legitimate reasons for the Cold War always left out. I'm happy to see wrong where wrong is done and don't have a problem joining in the condemnation of Nixon and Kissinger. But it's a one-sided story when it's only about them, and the Cold War is seen as merely an attempt at American hegemony instead of engendered by really serious crimes against humanity. If you don't make this part of the analysis, then you set up the next time when the crimes of communism or extremism or terrorism — real an actual crimes — are used to justify something the left finds wrong. Why can't the left be against both things?

    Look how many of these children were injured or killed by suicide bombs and Taliban-placed IEDs…

     

  • The Misery of Afghanistan

    Afghan Addicts
    The Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP),
    R.Gil Kerlikowske meets Afghan and American officials at a dinner
    held at the U.S Ambassadors residence on Feb 01, 2010. The third day
    in Afghanistan, Kerlikwoske visited the Sanga Amaj Treatment Center
    run by Social Services for Afghan Women (SSAW). This drug treatment
    center is populated by Afghan women addicted to opiates and their
    children that they bring to stay with them through-out their inpatient
    treatment. Photo: US Embassy Kabul, 2010.

    As we get ready to pull out all our troops…

    Insider attacks continue in Afghanisan:  Robert Tilford reports:

    Insider attacks in Afghanistan continue to occur however but at a much reduced rate from 2012, according to a new Pentagon report.

    There have been “nine insider attacks against ISAF thus far in 2013
    compared to 35 during the same period in 2012″, the report notes.

    Insider attacks risk “undermining international support for the
    mission and long-term support for the Afghan government, which could
    pose a threat to the transition process and stability beyond 2014.”

    “The mitigation measures adopted by ISAF and the ANSF since the surge in attacks during  summer 2012 appear to be making a difference, and to date, the rate of attacks against ISAF is significantly reduced. That said, these mitigation measures
    continue to diminish ISAF resources  and hamper movement, speed, and
    activity on the tactical level. Attacks against the ANSF  continue to
    rise, however, and may continue to do so as the ANSF assume greater
    responsibility  for the security of Afghanistan”, according to a new
    Defense Deaprtment report  http://www.defense.gov/pubs/October_1230_Report_Master_Nov7.pdf).

    More than 590,000 Afghans displaced by Taliban oppression and fighting, says the Wall Street Journal:

    More than 590,000 Afghans had been displaced
    from their homes by fighting and Taliban threats by late August,
    according to the United Nations, a 21% increase since January and more
    than four times the number in 2006, when the insurgency began in
    earnest. Wazira, who like many Afghans goes by one name, is one of more
    than 12,000 displaced people from Wardak province alone who now share
    homes around Kabul, according to the U.N.

    U.N.
    officials worry that widening violence could kick off an exodus abroad
    when American-led forces leave the country next year.

    For
    those trying to leave Afghanistan altogether, the first stop often is
    neighboring Iran or Pakistan. Some who are wealthy or lucky enough head
    for Europe or Australia, which already is coping with an influx of
    Afghan boat people. Some 38,000 people from Afghanistan have managed to
    get into industrialized nations to apply for asylum last year, more than
    from any other country, according to the U.N., and the highest figure
    since the U.S. invasion in 2001.

    That Other Big Afghan Crisis, the Growing Army of Addicts, says the New York Times.

    The number of drug users in Afghanistan is estimated to be as high as
    1.6 million, or about 5.3 percent of the population, among the highest
    rates in the world. Nationwide, one in 10 urban households has at least
    one drug user, according to a recent report from the Bureau of
    International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs. In the city of
    Herat, it is one in five.

    From 2005 to 2009, the use of opiates doubled, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime,
    putting Afghanistan on par with Russia and Iran, and the number of
    heroin users jumped more than 140 percent. Most drug experts think the
    rate of drug use has only increased since then.

    In a country troubled by adversity, from its long-running war to rampant
    corruption, drug addiction ranks low among national priorities.
    Government funding for treatment and outreach is less than $4 million a
    year. There are just under 28,000 formal treatment slots available
    nationwide, officials say, and such programs rely heavily on roughly $12
    million a year in extra international funding for treatment.

    The focus of the international community and the Afghan government has
    instead been on reducing opium production. Since the beginning of the
    war in 2001, the Americans have spent more than $6 billion to curb
    Afghanistan’s opium industry, including eradication and alternative crop
    subsidies. The effort has struggled, and in many areas eradication
    efforts have been unofficially abandoned as too costly in terms of lost
    public support for government.

    This last article I almost missed because like a lot of people, I tend to read the news that other people have already pushed through links on Facebook and Twitter first, then on various email services next, and then only later go through to the actual pages of news sites I might have book-marked or in readers. I might even actually visit the front page of the New York Times electronic version, but perhaps a story isn't on the front page.

    I only saw the story of the addicts because my aunt still gets the hard copy of the Times delivered to her home and I read it there. I keep discovering every other week how many things I've missed in the next pages, the back pages, the pages in between a link or a tweet.

    I cite these stories because these are all functions of the Taliban, and our withdrawal.

    So much revisionism goes on now — just as with the Soviet era — focusing on US killings of civilians or blaming the US. The Taliban has massacred 85% of the civilians killed in the war; Karzai and his allies the other 15%. ISAF is considered among Karzai's allies, but is responsible for a tiny fraction  of the deaths.

    Nevertheless, the Nation obsesses one-sidedly in articles like this only about the US.

    Yes, nearly 6500 people killed in 10 years is indeed an awful thing and if troops are responsible for unlawful killing, by all means,punish them.

    But let's contrast that with the MORE THAN ONE MILLION CIVILIANS KILLED BY THE SOVIETS IN THE 1980S IN AFGHANISTAN.

    My God, why should I even have to explain this?

     

  • Uzbekistan’s Delegate Pounds the Table at the UN — Denies Ample Evidence of Torture

    P de la Fuente Uzbek protesters

    Elena Urlayeva and Abdujalil Boymatov call for resignation of Karimov on Nov. 7, 2010. Photo by p de la Fuentes.

    The extraordinary scandals and dramas in the presidential palace and halls of the national security ministry in Uzbekistan lately seem almost larger than life. There are lurid tales of voices raised as the First Daughter wages a war against her sister and fights for a cousin arrested by the secret police, flinging ashtrays and slapping people — all leading to the aging and weakened president weeping in the garden.

    But all that is hard to confirm because it's hear-say and gossip, although the Christian Science Monitor and other mainstream newspapers are reporting some of it.

    Meanwhile, on a lesser stage at a UN panel, you could see the dramas actually playing out, with shouting and fists banging on the table.

    Long-time UN watchers are calling it the most incredible thing they've ever seen — well, none of them are old enough to remember Khrushchev banging his shoe on the table at the UN Security Council.

    The normally smooth-tongued and placid Akmal Saidov, chairman of the official National Human Rights Center, was literally shouting and pounding the table at a recent session of the UN's Committee Against Torture, the body charged with assessing countries' compliance with the Convention Against Torture.

    Uzbekistan is notorious for torture in its prisons and other facilities of incarceration, and also notorious for backing and filling and double-talking its way out of pressure from the international community. Tashkent is infamous for perpetuating old Soviet methods; when the International Committee of the Red Cross came to visit a prisoner who had filed complaints of torture, the wardens simply substituted the real prisoner with a prompted fake who said everything was fine. Relatives were able to uncover the deception, and eventually this fraud and other difficulties — like not being able to obtain conditions usually required by the Red Cross for visiting prisoners privately — led the ICRC finally to withdraw from Uzbekistan.

    If you have patience to work with a laggy video and know Russian — or even if you don't — you can get a gander at all this emotional defensiveness here.

    Although this is a bit simplified, Steve Swerdlow of Human Rights Watch was live-tweeting the session which will give you the flavour. The UN, particularly under pressure from Russia, China and other major-league human rights abusers is always trying to take away NGO privileges at the sessions, but cell phones, lap-tops and i-Pads are allowed in the session, mainly because the UN diplomats and experts refuse to do without them.

    RFE/RL also covered the story of the yelling and fist-banging.

    Saidov accused committee members of using outdated information.

    "You also refer to 'systematic torture' — an antiquated, hackneyed expression that has long been thrown in our faces," he said. "There is no such phrase as 'systematic torture' in international law. That's not my conclusion, but that of the former UN special rapporteur on torture, Manfred Nowak."

    After Saidov's angry outburst, Felice Gaer, vice chairperson of the UN committee and the country rapporteur for Uzbekistan, said the committee dealt only with the facts. She recalled the saying, "If you can't cite the facts, you cite the law, and if you can't cite the law, you bang the table," and said that's what the committee had witnessed at the review.

    The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights produced a rather sanitized version of the session, without the histrionics, but everyone knows they were there.

    There were some other highlights — CAT has repeatedly asked for what was being done in terms of redress for families of victims of the Andijan events, the massacre by Uzbek troops in 2005 of hundreds of civilians who came out on the public squares to demonstrate, following a jailbreak by armed opposition, the murder of several policemen, and the taking of hostages. (Human rights NGOs tend to emphasize the first part of that sentence and not mention or minimize the second part, but the two have to be mentioned together — violence did beget violence.) Saidov's answer: "Andijan is a closed subject for Uzbekistan. It's over." Once again, he claimed that the fact that Human Rights Watch could send observers to the trials of some of the people in the Andijan case was somehow the same thing as providing a full and frank report and permitting impartial investigators. It was not.

    Another creepy note was sounded when the Chinese member of CAT — this is the UN, and any country can run for elections and be voted into these bodies — praised Uzbekistan for "making so much progress" — why, it already had drafted several "national plans of action" — which is the usual sop to UN requirements — avidly encouraged by the UN bureaucracy — to try to do something about bad human rights records.

    Saidov responded: “We’re studying the Chinese experience” and “Your experience is highly valued by us.”

    Ugh. Nobody wants to think about what it means in real terms when China buys up half the gas and mineral companies and such in Central Asia. Well, that's what it means.

    The official summary record also failed to mention all the names of the cases — representing every issue from absence of lawyers to coerced confessions from torture to unjust imprisonment, etc.  brought to Uzbekistan's attention, which I obtained:

    1st day

    Ruhiddin Komilov, Rustam Tyuleganov and Bakhrom Abdurakhmanov

    Vahit Gunes

    Solijon Abdurakhmanov

    Turaboi Juraboev

    Sergei Naumov

    Zahid Umataliev

    Dilmurod Saidov

    Azam Turgunov

    Bobomurad Razzakov

    Gaibullo Djalilov

    Rasul Khudoynazarov

    Norboy Kholjigitov

    Yusuf Jumaev

    Elena Urlayeva

    Tatiana Dovlatova

    Azam Formonov

    Rayhon, Khosiyat, and Nargiza Soatova

    Gulnaza Yuldaseva

    Mehrinisso and Zulhumor Hamdamova

    Katum Ortikov

    Mutabar Tajibaeva

    2nd day

    Erkin Musaev

    HRDefenders :

    Nosim Isakov

    Ganihom Mamatkhanov

    Chuyan Mamatkulov

    Zafarjon Rahimov

    Nematjon Siddikov

    Batyrbek Eshkuziev

    Ruhiddin Fahruddinov

    Hayrullo Hamidov

    Bahrom Ibragimov

    Murod Juraev

    Davron Kabilov

    Matluba Karimova

    Samandar Kukanov

    Gayrat Mehiboev

    Rusam Usmanov

    Rashanbek Vafoev

    Akram Yuldashev

    The Uzbek delegation didn't have any answers, but apparently they may provide them in writing later.

    Kyrgyzstan will be reviewed November 11th and 12th at the UN CAT.

     

  • Uzbek Teachers Tell Students What to Say to ILO Inspectors

    Karakalpakstan2- 5th grade

    Fifth-grader in Karalpakstan, Uzbekistan picking cotton. Photo by Uzbek-German Forum.

    The Cotton Coalition (where I worked as a web editor for two years) regrettably pulled their punches when it came to the ill-advised ILO mission to Uzbekistan this year.

    The mission shouldn't have gone, because they couldn't get all the conditions they needed to do a proper independent monitoring without interference. They then participate in the sealing of a bad situation instead of maintaining standards.

    As I pointed out, no human rights groups should have endorsed this and should have loudly and forcefully condemned it.

    That's what you do when you're an NGO and not a government.

    To reiterate:

    Yet, the Cotton Campaign (funded by the Soros Foundations, although EurasiaNet, also funded by the Soros Foundations doesn't tell you that) cautiously welcomed this rigged "monitoring" visit.

    Human Rights Watch signed their cautious welcome, yet their Uzbek researcher still felt called upon to object to the conditions:

    Campaigners are concerned that the observers will not gain unfettered access to the cotton fields. “It is essential that monitoring teams be comprised only of independent observers and not include any Uzbek officials,” Steve Swerdlow, Central Asia Researcher at New York-based Human Rights Watch, told EurasiaNet.org.

    Yet surely HRW knows that it's too late to insist on conditions when the mission is already deployed and the bad terms already set. While HRW received $100 million from the Soros Foundations to establish them as the leading human rights group in the world, they should have long ago told the Soros strategists that they were withdrawing from the Cotton Campaign because it was ineffective and wishy-washy when it needed to be strong.

    I don't understand how it is that the Cotton Campaign couldn't keep its distance from both State and the ILO on this, but I think it has to do with a variety of factors:

    o the wish to stay "engaged" — these post-Soviet authoritarians are masters at guilt-tripping liberals into staying involved with them for fear that they are "missing opportunities" or "moving the goal-posts" or "never being able to say yes". The fact is, the only things these regimes understand is a consistent "no," pressure, and the refusal to legitimize

    o possible promises from State that they'd either move Uzbekistan down to tier 3 on the trafficking report, or some other gesture — I've been told by officials myself that "after 2014, things will get better" because the US won't be under pressure to maintain the NDN;

    o former State Department officials who have revolved into Soros or Human Rights Watch or other groups who feel beholden to their old comrades and/or a perspective that says you must "stay engaged"; Tom Malinowski, the former advocacy director of Human Rights Watch, a former Clinton Administration official and great engager of Russia and the post-Soviet countries, is now Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor; HRW received $100 million from the Soros Foundations;

    o some members of the coalition, i.e. in the apparels industry, who don't want to appear too radical.

    Well, all of these issues are endemic to any coalition that ranges from radical to conservative on an issue. There are reasons to keep coalitions like this going, but individual members should feel they can step out and criticize Uzbekistan when they need to.

    Today the Chronicle of Forced Labor translated a broadcast from Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe's Uzbekistan service, Radio Ozodlik:  International Monitors are still in Uzbekistan:

    International Monitors are still in Uzbekistan: Authorities are instructing students what to say to them

    23.10.2013

    A father whose child studies at Yangier Construction and Communal Services Vocational high school in Syrdarya region, called Radio Liberty. After requesting anonymity, he reported on a meeting between the international monitors and students of his child’s high school on October 22.

    Prior to the meeting, all the first-year students (ages 15-16), who recently returned from one month picking cotton, received special training on what to say to the visitors and were thoroughly coached.

    "My daughter told me that her teacher told them that a commission is coming to visit, so they need to teach the students what to say to the commission. The director himself came and taught the students what to answer if they are asked questions. While in the cotton fields, these children were taught what to say to anyone who asked. Back at the school, they were taught to say that they didn't go to pick cotton, that they studied, that their facilities are great and warm and they don't have any difficulties," said the father.

    On October 22 a commission accompanied by government officials arrived to meet with students and schoolchildren in the Syrdarya region. Residents assume that the commission members were the international monitors, because since September these international observers have been monitoring across the country and researching the situation with child labour and forced labour.

    Despite efforts by officials in Tashkent to keep children under the age of 18 from participating in cotton harvesting, the many fatal incidents involving students and schoolchildren who were forced to pick cotton is reflecting the real situation. Particularly, on October21, 16-year old Yuldoshev Erkaboy died. He had been forced to go to pick cotton and stay in Galaba village, Urganch district of Khorezm region.

    It's highly troubling that so many deaths have occurred this year at a time when the government claims it is no longer using young children and international monitors are coming on the scene. That suggests a condition of pressure and disintegration. I wish the international community had more access. It doesn't and hasn't really sufficiently tried to get it.

     

     

  • Dmitry Velikovsky and WikiLeaks’ Mediastan

    Fancy Car

    Fancy car driven by Velikovsky journalist in Afghanistan interviews by WikiLeaks on the road trip in Mediastan (although it could be owned by Wahlstrom or anyone else). Can anyone
    tell me its make and value, and also why it has Arabic script on the
    license plate, part of which is blurred out in the film?  Is this related to Wahlstrom's reporting on Palestine? ANSWER AND CORRECTION:  It's not Arabic, and it's Pashtun, as it is in Afghanistan — I hadn't realized when going over frames in the film that they were already in Afghanistan by this frame–CAF.

    I've been researching Dmitry Velikovsky, the Russian journalist who
    seems to take a lead role in the Mediastan road trip, and is narrating
    and asking questions in the film — second after Johannes Wahlstrom, who is listed as the
    producer. Velikovsky's name comes first on the list after Wahlstrom's.

    I've been trying to understand who is helping WikiLeaks, who is helping with this film, how they tie into Israel Shamir, Wahlstrom's notorious father, and what the real agenda is.

    Russkiy Reporter, the online news site, was involved in holding a screening and discussion of the film.

    Velikovsky seems to do most of his publishing at RR, although he is also on Voice of Russia, which is a pro-government.

    Russkiy Reporter is owned by the same media group that owns Ekspert, which they visit in Kazakhstan, which refuses to run the WikiLeaks cables. I will let the seasoned Moscow correspondents describe RR and its affiliations and its future possible sponsorship by the oligarch Deripaska. And RR may not even be the point, as the only reporter from RR on the Mediastan tour appears to be Velikovsky, but more research is needed.

    Dmitry appears on the VoR radio show in a sympathetic story of Manning's trial.  (I'll have to listen later to see if he didn't come to the US to cover this story and make contact with all the usual suspects.).

    Another article, about Assange, called "Prisoner of the World" (uznik, in the sense of prisoner of conscience) is subtitled: "How the Western Establishment Beat Assange." And this tells you a lot about Velikovsky's psychology. Russians, especially those leaning toward the government or who are nationalist-minded even if urban hipsters, tend to have this feeling of insecurity/hatred/venom about the superior United States, and that's what attracts them so much to WikiLeaks and Snowden. They get to stick it in the eye of the loathsome West, which they've been taught to hate in everything they get in schools and the state-controlled media. They see WikiLeaks as an undergo on the run from the "gegemon" America, and they root for it.

    So something like helping Wikileaks here is not just some mechanistic pro-government work like robots, or some intelligence plot, although I think we will find the FSB's fingerprints on this story given the presence of Wahlstrom and his dad lurking behind the scenes. No, rather it's that some Russians genuinely love the story. That the West tried to haul back Assange to Sweden to face questioning on a sex offense is offensive to Russians just on the face of it, culturally, as something like that would never happen in their sexist culture where domestic violence or sexual assault cases are very hard to get into court. That the NSA is snooping even on their Vkontakte somehow, and that Sweden is supposedly even selling Internet traffic from Russia — these ideas are offensive to them, naturally, and they hate America first. Their own government is far worse a problem for them, but they've internalized that; indeed, the way they can even express themselves on these topics in a controlled media situation is to make America the target.

    I see that a lot with Central Asians, as well — they grab on to the issues of Guantanamo andWikiLeaks and Occupy with a vengeance and obsess about it because it enables them to feel part of the world and to not feel the sting and humiliation that comes with being intellectuals in a country that has situations of imprisonment and torture far worse than Guantanamo, and snooping far worse than the NSA — and no WikiLeaks.

    Here's another pro-Assange article by Velikovsky. He evidently went to his compound in London while he was there under house arrest with a leg device and interviewed him there, taking note of the kind of car. That's some kind of Google-translate version of a Russian article that doesn't appear to be available anymore, strangely.

    Then at RR, if you see his list of stories, he has a strange amalgam — story after story after story under just his own name, or only one other name about…cars. Racing cars, new cars, hot cars. He's a specialist on cars (and drives one in Mediastan, as he is shown narrating his story at the wheel.)

    That's when he tells his story about how he made fake letters to the editor to please his boss, and then found that the marketing department didn't want him to print the real letters in a column about letters he was responsible for.

    But somehow despite not working out in that job, he found his way to reporting on cars at RR — and Assange.

    Interspersed between the cars are stories on WikiLeaks, Manning, and unrest in Egypt for Ekho Moskvy as well as Southern Ossetia — a favourite topic of Russian nationalists of course, who endlessly intrigue around the Russian-Georgian war.

    One article in which Dmitry writes with 4 or 5 other people is a critical study of jailed tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky which takes him back to his days at the Komsomol's Youth, Science and Technology Center and the Menatep bank and all the rest. It's a fairly cynical study accentuating things like quotes purporting to show Khodorkovsky saying "in a normal country, I'd be put in jail," but it's not that different from what Western reporters say about him. I do tend to wonder if in a normal country, Khodorkovsky would merely be fined, not jailed, but he isn't in a normal country.

    He also is among 6 authors who wrote favourable about five NGOs who were trying to fight off the "foreign agent act" that Putin is using to try to rein in groups that get foreign funding and engage in "politics" (it was Khodorkovsky's support of opposition parties that also bothered Putin and was the motivation for his imprisonment). This article seems fine, i.e. not snotty, but it's not clear which part of it Velikovsky wrote, that's just the thing.

    In this recent piece, Velikovsky understandably trashes The Fifth Estate, but then at least notes that "an RR report was involved" in the movie he then praises, Mediastan. That's himself, of course. He says he prefers documentaries to Hollywood. He notes that Mediastan got thrown out of the Toronto Film Festival because they picked The Fifth Estate instead.

    Velikovsky, although he mainly seemed to report on cars and fill in with a few other stories critical of the West's favourite topics, is described as a WikiLeaks expert by Voice of Russia.

    And no doubt he is. That makes him suitable for the VoR program on the NSA and interception — a program that aired in April 2012. April 2012 was when there was a huge flurry of activity against the NSA by WikiLeaks' Assange, Jacob Appelbaum, and Laura Poitras, which I've discussed at length in coverage of the Whitney Museum event on surveillance and other items in my timeline of the Snowden affair.

    Do you see a pattern here? People doing active measures, well, they schedule them. They coordinate them. And remember, they don't have to have all the people "in the know" that they are actually part of some plot; they can merely be in the networks, they can be "agents of influence."

    So…If I were a Moscow reporter, I'd no doubt have called Dmitry by now trying to get to Snowden. Among others that seem to have shown up around this story. Obviously, he was a figure trusted by the paranoid Assange for this Mediastan film — and he goes several years back covering Julian very favourably.

    I guess all doubt is removed with the appearance of Mediastan now that WikiLeaks is "removed" from Snowden or "not on Russia" anymore or somehow "not involved". While you could posit that Mediastan was filmed in 2011 and 2012 and therefore isn't relevant to 2013, the fact that a Russian publication could hold an evening with a film showing and involve Russians in Moscow related to Shamir currently in this means that WikiLeaks is still very much in the Russian tank. That WikiLeaks got hold of the film of Snowden from his Sam Adam award lets us know that, too — and of course they would, given Sarah Harrison's presence at the event.

    Yes, perhaps by now I'd be told there is a price for that entree to Snowden, like there was a price of supposedly $3000 for that Life News photo of him shopping. Geez, guys, you got burned on that, you should have waited a week, and you could get him in a suit holding a candle at a swank dinner.

    Meanwhile I won't be a bit surprised if the next feature about Snowy comes from Dima.

     

     

  • WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


    (more…)

  • Will the CSTO Be Used to Put down Internal Unrest in Central Asia?

    CSTO meeting 2010
    August 20, 2010. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko(left) , Kyrgyz President
    Roza Otunbayeva, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Armenian
    President Serge Sarkisian at unofficial summit of the leaders of the
    CSTO member states in Yerevan, Armenia © PanARMENIAN Photo / Davit
    Hakobyan

    This was the question addressed by Yulia Nikitina of MGIMO (the Moscow State Institute of International Relations) during her policy memo presentation and discussion at the annual two-day PONARS conference.

    Because I asked it.

    Her talk was actually about "How the CSTO Can (and Cannot) Help NATO" –  given the 2014 withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan. "Afghanistan is on its way to becoming a missed opportunity for NATO-CSTO cooperation," she said — and she wasn't really delving into the nature of the CSTO per se and why NATO may not wish this cooperation.

    But naturally, cooperation does hinge on the nature of the CSTO and its intentions.

    Nikitina's talk came just as a summit of the CSTO was completed, and a statement was released that the security group did not plan to add more troops to Tajikistan, but planned to help Tajikistan "strengthen its border" in light of 2014.

    To put this in perspective, think of 6,000 Russian troops already in Tajikistan, considerable wrangling still over how much Russia will pay Tajikistan for its base there and other arrangements, and a border more than 1,000 kilometers long. 

    The numbers of troops available in the CSTO — which Uzbekistan has not joined — is not officially released, but here's what Nikitina has to say: 

    In 2012, hard security issues disappeared from the agenda of potential CSTO-NATO cooperation. They were replaced by an emphasis on conflict resolution and crisis management, to which in 2013 peacekeeping was added. But what specifically can the CSTO offer in the fields of crisis management and peacekeeping?

    The CSTO has four types of collective forces. These include two regional groups of military forces (Russia-Belarus and Russia-Armenia), prepared to react to external military aggression; a 4,000-strong Collective Rapid Deployment Force for Central Asia; a 20,000-strong Collective Rapid Reaction Force (both of which have been designed to react to crises short of interstate conflicts); and collective peacekeeping forces, including about 3,500 soldiers and military officers and more than 800 civilian police officers (exact figures for all types of forces are not publicly available).

    So the last "collective peace-keeping forces" which isn't the same thing as the Collective Rapid Deployment Force, has 4,300 troops, but roughtly a fifth of them are civilian police officers. Interesting.

    Basically, my question was this (with some explanation in parentheses):

    In 2010, during the pogroms in southern Kyrgyzstan in Osh and Jalalabad, then-acting President Otunbayeva reportedly asked the CSTO to come in and help restore order. (At least 400 people were killed in these ethnic riots, thousands injured, and hundreds of thousands displaced, many temporarily to neighbouring Uzbekistan.)

    All along before then, the CSTO said they were not designed to handle internal unrest, and that was not their purpose, but they were asked anyway, and we know there were emergency meetings about this question in Kyrgyzstan.

    I had understood from talking to some diplomats that Uzbekistan opposed having the CSTO deployed in its "back yard" so to speak (as they disliked the encroachment of what they saw as a Russian-dominated entity – and that's why they refuse to join it – in a neighbour that already had several Russian bases and at that time the US base as well in Manas.)

    So the CSTO was not deployed in Kyrgyzstan (and I could add that the effort to get some 50 police from the OSCE countries to deploy for "technical assistance" to the Kyrgyz authorities was also pretty much demolished because the all-powerful mayor of Osh did not want foreign meddling and Bishkek did not have control  over him).

    In any event, after these tragic events, this question was further discussed and in due course, you heard CSTO head Borduzhya and even Foreign Minister Lavrov speak of adding the competency to address mass unrest to the tasks of the CSTO.

    Will they? I also asked if these troops could be deployed in Tajikistan, where an armed
    group was involved in clashes with law enforcement in which 30 or more
    were killed last year.

    Likely there are others more knowledgeable about the details but I think it's good to ask Russians directly about this because they don't seem to want to define either what "extremism" is or what "unrest" is or anything about this.

    I expected, since there was a news story out in Izvestiya, that this would get a "normal" answer, much like the last paragraph of this article, which reflected the official view:

    Vladimir Putin also proposed using the CSTO forces in the capacity of peace-keeping forces.

    This was first discussed after June 2010, during the period of inter-ethnic clashes in Kyrgyzstan, when CSTO forces could not interfere in the conflict due to the absence of legal mechanisms.

    Of course, peace-keeping and unrest-stopping are really different things as the UN endlessly learns to its chagrin — but I thought I'd ask.

    That Izvestiya piece made it sound like it was a mere absence of legal mechanisms, although we knew it was both an absence of political will (on Russia's part) and an unwillingness to have deployment encroaching sovereignty on others' part.

    In any event, Nikitina replied with that tone of prickly, moral-equivalency high dudgeon that seems to characterize so many interactions with the official Russian intelligentsia these days.

    She said she often got this sort of question and "just couldn't understand it". After all, no one expected NATO to go to the south of France in 2005, she noted tartly. You can't just have military alliances going hither and yon, and so on.

    It wasn't the sort of format where I could object that NATO wasn't invited to the south of France, and 400 people weren't killed in the south of France, and half a million didn't flee over the border, either.

    In any event, she said she didn't know about Uzbekistan objecting, but in fact, she said, Belarus objected. (I had never heard that before).

    Belarus said that it would be hard to tell the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks apart, Nikitina noted. I would like to think that what Belarus meant by this was not that "all Central Asians look alike" but that civilians and marauders would be hard to tell apart.

    Of course, you could start just by separating, oh, the men riding around in police or army vehicles that mysteriously seemed to become available to them, wielding guns also mysteriously obtained, and stop them from going into places with women in scarves carrying young children and fleeing in panic. That should be fairly easy to "tell apart". In any event, urban hand-to-hand combat is a difficult setting and I'm not going to tell the military or police their business. I really don't know if Russian-led troops swooping into Osh might have made a difference — especially if they didn't have a robust Chapter 7 equivalent sort of mandate to actually battle the pogromshchiki. I can't imagine that the attitude toward Russian-led forces would be intrinsically welcoming, either, although Otunbayeva, herself educated in Moscow, reportedly did ask.

    In any event, I also asked Nikitina if 4000 troops was enough to do the job. She didn't answer. The thrust of what she replied — and I await the videotape — was that while response to disorders and/or extremist attacks was now in the remit of the CSTO, it was mainly about inter-state interactions.

    She also stressed that the involvement of the CSTO in a domestic matter could only be at the invitation of the country itself.

    I do think we are not back to a Warsaw Pact type of situation where the need to protect peace-loving fraternal socialist peoples serve as an excuse to do something like invade Czechoslovakia.

    Of course, what we don't know is what would happen if there was a situation such as has occurred in Kyrgyzstan, where mobs end up toppling corrupt governments, sometimes it seems with some very skilled help (those sharpshooters you can see in some videos skilfully hiding behind trees and moving to scale fences didn't get those bazookas out of a tulip bed).

    i.e. if Russian special forces stealthily took down a government, mixing in with mobs, and then whistled for the CSTO to put down any one objecting.

    Or a scenario like in Moscow itself in August 1991, where one government leader is spirited far away and kept under house arrest, and an illegitimate coup plotters' committee appears, and then another government leader comes on tanks and defeats the coup plot but deposes the leader taken into exile. See, any one of those figures could be whistling for a CSTO. Then what? Which are the fraternal peace-loving peoples?

    Nikitina seemed to indicate that invitations for such deployment might only be a remote possibility.

    There are other troubles — Uzbekistan isn't in the CSTO, and Nazarbayev, head of Kazakhstan didn't come to the summit, even though he wasn't sick and ended up having meetings at home and then going to Monaco. Monaco?! What's that about? "I could have come and chatted with all of you about what we're going to do when hordes of terrorists come pouring over the Afghan border into our countries and destabilize us in 2014, but instead, I chose to go speak to the Prince."

    Says Izvestiya:

    President Nazarbayev’s presence was important; after all the foundation for the military component of the CSTO is the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces (CRRF). These are the divisions that will actively participate in various operations. For now, the lion’s share of the CRRF are made up of Russian and Kazakh soldiers.

     All of this requires further watching and research. Where have there been Russian "peace-keepers"? Well, in Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia.

    How would the CSTO peace-keep? Like ECOWAS or the African Union?

    Thinking of all the cases of violent unrest in Central Asia in the last 20 years, Andijan stands out as the worst or among the worst — and Uzbekistan is not part of the reaction force or the peace-keeping force (I'd love to know more about how they differ). Kyrgyzstan is part of the CSTO, but there is already this precedent where it wasn't deployed because of objections and difficulties.

    So where would the CSTO be deployed? Tajikistan?

     
    CSTO Summit PanArmenian

    CSTO summit 2010, photo by PanARMENIAN.