• WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


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  • Will There Be Conflict in Central Asia After US Troop Withdrawal? Interview with Me in CA-News (English Original)

    Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) propaganda video. Comments on Youtube suggest they get some resistance from their compatriots.

    I was delighted to give an interview to CA-News, which is a Central Asian news online publication based in Bishkek associated with AKIpress.org  (in Russian).

    But because there are a half dozen or so mistakes in the translation that makes me sound like I'm saying the opposite of what I actually said [fortunately fixed within a day!], and because not everybody reads Russian, I'm reprinting the original Russian questions and my answers in English below. I've asked them to make the corrections. I don't mind, because this is an important independent publication and I support its mission. I think they do a good job.

    I'm not sure how they came to ask me, a person who is not a formal expert on the region, for such an extensive interview, but they did, perhaps in search of independent analysis.

    Although I've spent a career of 35 years in this field where I have travelled extensively throughout Eurasia, and lived and worked in Russia and travelled frequently to Russia, Belarus, Poland in particular for OSCE, I have never been to a single Central Asian country. I worked in the Central Eurasian Program at OSI for six years without such a boon. It's not for any lack of desire; it just so happened that at different times when I was actually invited to go to Kyrgzystan when I worked with various human rights groups, or Kazakhstan when I was a public member at the OSCE, it simply happened that I couldn't go. I doubt I could get a visa to Turkmenistan, having written critically about it for OSI for six years, or Uzbekistan, where I also wrote critically for two years — and of course before that, I edited two weeklies for RFE/RL and other publications for many years.

    Even so, I study the regional Russian-language and English-language press very carefully, go to all the conferences I can, and interview people directly either when they visit the US, or when I see them at international conferences or over email and Skype. That's certainly not a substitute for a personal visit, where you can get the feel of things and have many important one-on-one conversations. But in lack of direct exposure on my skin of the winds of Central Asia, I'm no different than most pundits who have either never been there, or have been there only infrequently, and don't even speak any regional languages.

    I do think there's an advantage to having a critical independent view of this critical region. I think those not in formal structures can speak out more loudly about the corrosive effect on human rights that the US and Europe have had; the ongoing pernicious role that Russia plays; and the troublesome future of Chinese domination — not to mention the ways in which the oppressive autocratic regimes play these factors off against each other to keep themselves in power and their people miserable.

    You have nothing to lose if your job does not depend on some certain perspective. I find that the status quo in the human rights movement is to minimize the threat of terror or unrest and play up the awfulness of the regimes. That's a whitewash, given the groups in the region that have many, many more thousands of adherents that Western-style human rights groups — like Hizb-ut-Tahir.

    As for Washington, I find that far from there being the "neo con" belief that a) there is rampant terrorism and a horrible threat of Islamization and/or b) some imminent "Arab Spring" coming, there is actually nothing of the sort. Oh, there's that one paper at Jamestown Foundation or something, but that's it.

    That is, those on the left, the "progressives" and the "RealPolitik" adherents constantly pontificate as if there were some horrid neo-cons or hawks or conservatives saying these things, but in fact these groups, which have dwindling influence in any event, either are following RealPolitik themselves or don't even care at all about this region (mainly the latter).

    So in my view, there is this whole fake industry of anti-anti commentary, which runs like this:

    "There isn't any Islamic threat at all in this region, perish the thought, it's just a poor region with dictators who in fact go overboard suppressing legitimate Muslim activity"

    "There's no Muslim fervour in fact, these states are Sovietized and secularized".

    "Nothing is going to happen when troops leave, it is all wildly exaggerated and people who say that seem not to realize that the US troops are the conflict generator, not the IMU"

    "Russia has little influence any more in this region; it has less gas extraction, it has less money, it has length troop strength and its efforts to make a Warsaw Pact — the CSTO — or a Soviet Re-Union with a customs union have mainly failed."

    And so on.

    While each one of those statements can be true up to a point, they also lead to this strange endorsement of the status quo in these regions that in fact ends up serving the regimes, in my view.

    Russia's influence is considerable, and it has been behind unrest by its action (as it was in Bakiyev's ouster and its threats to Atambayev) or inaction (with the pogroms in Osh). The remittance economies are huge — for the labour migrants from Tajikistan in particular, but increasingly Uzbekistan and even Turkmenistan. That means that Russia winds up dominating the lives of these countries through some of their most vulnerable citizens — not just the mainly male workers but the females left back home as head of households with children. The Russian language did not disappear from this region, even if it is taught less, because dominating Russian mainstream media, and Russian-controlled social media like mail.ru and Vkontakte, are very big factors in the media space in this region.

    As for terrorism, sure, it gets exaggerated and the regimes "do it to themselves". But there are also real terrorist acts that occur. There is a sense that the presence of US troops in Afghanistan has ensured a kind of "frozen conflict" in this region that isn't on the official list of the frozen conflicts. The IMU has been tied up mainly fighting NATO troops. So when they go away, then what? Where do they go, those 5000 or 8000 or however many fighters there are? (And probably there are analysts saying they are only 2000, but who really knows, what, you did a door-to-door survey, guys?) Will they peacefully melt back into the countryside and farm happily? Or what? I think it's okay to look at that question critically without being branded as a terrorism hysteric.

    Ditto the question of "Arab Spring". No one thinks there is any Arab Spring coming to Central Asia. I don't know of a single pundit or analyst saying this. Yet again, there is the "anti-anti-" industry making this claim, mainly from the Registan gang. The problem is that when you adopt that scornful skepticism, you stop seeing reality when it appears. As Paul Goble put it, there is a way in which talking about the Arab Spring is a little spring in itself. And there are signs of unrest here and there, and you don't know how they will turn out.

    Remember, the same gang at Registan — Sarah Kendzior and Katy Pearce — were predicting with firm determination that discussion of oppression on the Internet was causing a chill in use, a decline in use, and even the shuttering of popular discussion pages. They implied that there would never be any Twitter revolution in Azerbaijan, that it was going to be slow and incremental and we shouldn't artificially speed it up by over-amplifying human rights cases.

    Yet thousands of people keep demonstrating in Azerbaijan despite the news of repression, and they keep using Internet tools to make their case — tools that Pearce is now blithely measuring with machinopology as if she had never written that Internet use would be chilled by such expression. It hasn't been. Facebook membership boomed. Will this "spring" last forever? I truly doubt it. Not with potential European and American oil interests — and actually existing Russian and Iranian oil interests — in this mix. Everybody will blame the West for the crackdown in Azerbaijan that is likely to be inevitable and thorough, and fume at the regime-tropic USAID grantees that they ignored last year (or even cooperated with) as the smoking gun of American perfidy.  But it will be Russia's money and military role that will be the bigger factor.

    This is how I'm seeing it, in the end: To the extent Russian wants or needs conflict, or is weakened and can't efficiently prevent or manage conflict, there will be conflict in Central Asia after NATO troops are withdrawn.

    Part of that resistance to Russian state intrusion will be Islamic ferment. If analysts were busy telling everyone these were secular Soviet states and Arab Spring can't happen, they will be uncomfortably confronted with the reality that Islam is a great organizing tool in countries where it has historic roots, and this need not be seen as a threat to the West. Yet because they've been engaged in such an industry telling us it's not a threat to the West, they will be embarrassed when in fact it will be — as they emblematically were when the Egyptian woman activist just feted at the State Department turned out to be such an anti-American hater, 9/11 celebrator, and horrid anti-semite on Twitter, and not because she was hacked — a fiction State had to indulge in to save face.

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  • What Can We Expect from the Talks on Iran in Kazakhstan?

    Well, not much.

    The round of talks is between Iran and the so-called P5 or permanent five members of the UN Security Coucil — Russia, China,
    France, the UK, and the US — plus an aspiring member of the Security Council who has been an elected member in the past — Germany. It's good they're having this in Almaty and not making these diplomats hoof it to the artificially-constructed capital of Astana, which is inconvenient, I'm told.

    Why don't I expect much?

    Well, this below gives you an idea — from the Daily Press Briefing at the State Department yesterday.

    I just don't think there's much new here, from either the US or Iran, and that Kazakhstan's presence doesn't add much.

    To be sure, the Central Asian countries deal more effectively with Iran than the US. That is, they have their quarrels and boycotts and temporary cessation of rail projects (like Turkmenistan) and make-ups and problems, too, but nothing like the US.

    Whenever the I-ranter comes to one of these countries, you never hear him spouting about the Jews, the Great Satan, the need to wipe Israel off the map, the scourge of Western civilization, etc. but he just talks normally and boringly like a Soviet bureaucrat about potash or rail ties, and then sometimes they'll have a carefully-choreographed spring ritual for Novruz, and maybe he'll give presents to the other potentates. But the rhetoric is completely dialed down.

    What is Kazakhstan's value-add? Well, in some ways, maybe it's the new hegemon on Central Asia, and not Uzbekistan anymore, simply because it gets along with Russia better (has a big Russian minority), its economy is doing better, and Western oil companies get along better with it than, say, Turkmenistan.

    Oh, and remember WikiLeaks?

    "Kazakhstan Open to Increase Pressure on Iran".

    Kazakhstan is considered some sort of "no nukes" state that will spread the non-proliferation idea to others. But I think that's to miss the unique circumstances that got Astana to part with its nukes: the Russian deal made at the collapse of the Soviet Union, that essentially, in exchange for your sovereignty, you have to give us your nukes. That was an offer they couldn't refuse. Kazakhstan's deal seems to have worked out better than, say, Belarus', but then, Kazakhstan is in the Soviet Re-Union efforts Putin has re-constructed and others aren't.

    Here they are at State, fumbling around…

    QUESTION: The talks start tomorrow in Almaty —

    MR. VENTRELL: Yeah.

    QUESTION: — for the first time in a few months. And Catherine
    Ashton’s office today said that they’re a serious effort to try and
    break stalemate and get to – get things moving. Can you tell us what the
    United States or the what the P5+1 is bringing to the table that might
    make Iran rethink?

    MR. VENTRELL: Well, without getting into the details, because
    we need to let the negotiators do their jobs, we do have a serious,
    updated proposal. And we hope that the Iranian regime will make the
    strategic decision to come to the talks that start tomorrow in
    Kazakhstan prepared to discuss substance so that there can be progress
    in addressing the international community’s concerns. You heard
    Secretary Kerry talk about this this morning, and we do have a serious
    updated proposal, and our proposal does include reciprocal measures that
    encourage Iran to make concrete steps to begin addressing the
    international community’s concerns.

    But beyond that, I think we really need to let the negotiators – our
    team is out there. This will begin tomorrow morning their time, and we
    need to let them do their work.

    QUESTION: There are reports out there that among the measures
    on the Western side, if you want to call it that, could be a lifting
    sanctions on the gold and metal trades. Would that be something that you
    could —

    MR. VENTRELL: Beyond saying that we have reciprocal measures
    that encourage Iran to make concrete steps, I’m really not going to get
    into the details. We need to let our negotiators work.

    QUESTION: You said, “serious, updated,” not seriously updated, right?

    MR. VENTRELL: A serious, updated proposal.

    QUESTION: Okay. So that doesn’t imply that it’s been dramatically altered from previous negotiations last year?

    MR. VENTRELL: I mean, it’s serious —

    QUESTION: And updated.

    MR. VENTRELL: — and it’s also updated.

    QUESTION: Okay.

    QUESTION: Do you —

    QUESTION: You were saying that —

    QUESTION: And all the other ones were serious too, right?

    MR. VENTRELL: We’ve always come to the table ready to engage seriously.

    QUESTION: All right. So if you were to judge the difference
    between this negotiation and the last one, the actual offer on the table
    isn’t dramatically different than previously?

    MR. VENTRELL: There’s nothing more that I’m going to say about the offer on the table. Let’s let our negotiators work.

    Go ahead.

    QUESTION: You mentioned reciprocal measures to —

    MR. VENTRELL: Reciprocal measures, yeah.

    QUESTION: — to help Iran take the decision?

    MR. VENTRELL: Yeah.

    QUESTION: So some things will happen before Iran takes a drastic measure on UN resolutions or on stopping its nuclear program or whatever?

    MR. VENTRELL: I’m just not going to get into it beyond what I said before.

    QUESTION: Well, generally, do you feel optimistic going into
    these talks? Is the United States hopeful that there might be a change
    in the Iranian position?

    MR. VENTRELL: I mean, we want them to make the strategic
    decision. We’re obviously – as the Secretary said, there is time and
    space for diplomacy, but it’s not infinite time, and we clearly want –
    we’ve come with a serious proposal, and we want to – we hope that the
    Iranians have come with the strategic decision that they’re going to
    change their behavior.

    QUESTION: But the fact – excuse me – but the fact that they
    are using these new centrifuges, dramatically trying to increase their
    enrichment capability and purity, doesn’t necessarily signal that
    they’re ready to negotiate an end to their nuclear program.

    MR. VENTRELL: Well, as Toria said last week, that’s a tactic they’ve used in the past coming into talks. And let’s see what happens.

    QUESTION: You think it’s a tactic, or you think they’re trying
    to build a nuclear – I thought you thought that the reason they were
    using these centrifuges is to build a nuclear weapon?

    MR. VENTRELL: I mean, clearly we have concerns about the
    Iranian program. But beyond that, all I’ll say is that that’s something
    that they’ve done in the past in the lead up to talks. Not necessarily
    one specific action or another, but that seems to be part of their
    strategy.

    Okay.

    QUESTION: Procedurally, what will happen tomorrow? Is it just
    one day of talks, and then everyone goes away to consider their
    positions? Or is there a possibility it could go to two, or —

    MR. VENTRELL: The talks in the past have sometimes gone into a second day. Let’s see what happens.

    Samir.

    QUESTION: Do you have a readout on why Under Secretary Sherman is going to Israel?

    MR. VENTRELL: I don’t have any information on that. I’ll have to look into it.

    QUESTION: You guys put out a statement.

    MR. VENTRELL: Oh, we have already put it out?

    QUESTION: Yes.

    MR. VENTRELL: I’m sorry. I —

    QUESTION: She’s going to brief them on the topics. (Laughter.)

    MR. VENTRELL: Anything else?

    QUESTION: Wait. But you put out a statement that she will go Israel —

    QUESTION: Oh. Is she going to brief them?

    QUESTION: — Saudi Arabia, and —

    QUESTION: Is she going to Israel and these countries to brief them on the talks?

    MR. VENTRELL: Okay. Guys, I didn’t realize in this thing we
    put out announcing her travel that it included that detail. Let me look
    into it. I’ll have some more information for you tomorrow.

    QUESTION: Do you have the statement?

    MR. VENTRELL: I don’t have it in my book right now.

    QUESTION: I’ll forward it to you.

    MR. VENTRELL: Okay? Thanks.

  • Tajik Opticon #8

    Prokudin-Gorsky Small

     This is my little blog on Tajikistan that comes out on Saturdays. I was travelling abroad and working on a project this last month so I missed two weeks, but I hope to be back on track. If you are reading this on TinyLetter you will have to come to my blog Different Stans for the links in RU and TJ as these are blocked by this mail system. Write me at [email protected] with comments or requests to be added to the mailing list.

    HEADLINES

    o US Secretary of State Visits Tajikistan

    o Tajik President Calls on Army to Resist External Threats

    o Journalist Stabbing a Warning for Tajik Opposition

    COMMENTARY

    Assistant Secretary of State Robert O. Blake, Jr. visited Dushanbe February 20-21 and met with President Emomali Rahmon. There is nothing on the US Embassy Dushanbe web site (yet) about this meeting, and only a picture on the Embassy Facebook page; very little anywhere else.

    The independent Tajik press reported an alleged offer to make Tajikistan available for NATO equipment withdrawals, but the official did not seem very high level and later the same press reported just on the English-language page reported "Washington reprotedly does not plan to use Tajikistan’s infrastructure
    during the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan." So the US seemed to be saying "thanks but no thanks". Too mountainous?

    Into this vacuum of information steps a Russian analyst as usual, speculating that the purpose of Blake's trip was to shore up commitments from Dushanbe to let US and NATO military "obyekty" (installations) stay on the territory of Tajikistan. It's interesting that he doesn't say "troops," although there are some US "troops" in Tajikistan doing training and advising. He talks about the "obyekty" (facilities) which in a sense are what the US is already helping with by donating equipment.

    The Russian analyst Anatoly Knyazev from the Institute for Oriental Studies believes the US will bribe officials and support a "thin layer" of students and nationalist intellectuals ("thin layer" is old Soviet Pravda parlance for a discredited social class not according to the Marxist-Leninist plan). This "thin layer" – the Oreo cookie filling smushed between Russia and the US and ready to be dipped into the milk of China (so I'm visualizing vividly now) is not really going to be allowed to succeed, as the US won't fund them, but they will be used to put pressure on Rahmon. Mkay.

    Meanwhile, USAID is busy funding comic books in the Tajik language, so I don't think anyone's going to be colouring outside the lines…

    Note that in the US photo op, Rahmon is smiling and the chandelier is featured. Note that in the Tajik photo op Rahmon is frowning and the wallpaper is featured. Also, note that the flower display at these things are always done beautifully.

    The Tajik military parade last week provided an opportunity for Dushanbe to show off their hardware including some still-shiny Chaikas. Haven't seen those in awhile.

    The trial of the suspect in the killing of the security official in Badakhshan last year has opened, and surprise, surprise, it's behind closed doors.

    There was a bit of a kerfluffle with an Iranian presidential candidate speaking of a "Greater Iran" and Iran "taking back" Tajikistan, Armenian and Azerbaijan, but…well, when we saw the phrase "presidential candidate" we knew that this story couldn't be true, because those things are real in the Iranian dictatorship. Anyway, Ahmadineajad is coming to Dushanbe for the spring festival of Novruz in a few weeks and surely they'll sort things out. Meanwhile, we learn from RFE/RL and @eTajikistan that 29% of the 2000 plus foreign students in Tajikistan come from Iran.

    Other comments in italics below.

     

    Blake and Rahmon 2
    Photo by US Embassy Dushanbe

    U.S. Official Calls For Fair Tajik Presidential Election

    U.S. Assistant Secretary for South and
    Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake has called on Tajikistan's leadership
    to hold a fair, democratic, and transparent presidential election in
    November.

    Blake started his two-day visit to Dushanbe on February 20 and has met with NGO representatives and civil-society activists.

    No doubt this meeting had more people in it than Blake's meeting in Turkmenistan.

    Blake and Rahmon
    Assistant
    Secretary of State for Central and South Asia Robert O. Blake, Jr. and
    President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, February 20, 2013. Photo by President.tj.

    President.tj reports:

    It was emphasized that the US continues to provide support to
    Tajikistan's initiatives to intensify its struggle with terrorism,
    extremism, unlawful narcotics trade, and to further assist in the
    strengthening of the defense of the state borders with Afghanistan, and
    material and technical provision of the relevant state agencies.

    Flowers
    Photo by President.tj

    Tajik Ambassader Wants Tajikistan Off Jackson-Vanik (h/t @ericamarat

    DUSHANBE, February 14, 2013, Asia-Plus — Tajik Ambassador to the
    United States, Nouriddin Shamsov, has called on Washington to remove
    Tajikistan from Jackson-Vanik restrictions.

    According to Silk Road Newsline, Ambassador Shamsov has noted that
    Tajik economy shows steady progress, the country will officially join
    the WTO on March 2, 20012 and it’s time for the United States to
    graduate Tajikistan from the restrictive Jackson-Vanik amendment.

    “My government anticipates continuing effective bilateral cooperation
    with U.S. Government to lift as soon as possible the Jackson-Vanik
    amendment which would impede as we do believe full fledged membership of
    Tajikistan in the WTO and further promotion of bilateral trade and
    investment relations with the Unites States of America,” Shamsov told a
    panel on the WTO at the at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute (CACI) in
    Washington on February 13.

    "No Obstacle" to NATO Transit Through Tajikistan h/t@TheBugPit

    Tajikistan is ready to offer its territory for transit of freight by
    international allied forces in Afghanistan, and there are no obstalces
    regarding this issue. Davlat Nazriev, head of the Agency for
    Information, Press Analysis and Foreign Policy Planning of the Foreign
    Affairs of Tajikistan announced at a briefing.

    "In the event of an appeal from any country, this question will be reviewed through the established procedures," he emphasized.

    Russian Analyst Sees Blake's Trip as Demand for Support of US and NATO Installations 

    The purpose of Robert Blake's visit to Dushanbe is to obtain a final decision on the issue of deploying American and NATO military facilities on the territory of Tajikistan, since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan has already begun, and the US immediately demands hard guarantees, says Aleksandr Knyazev, coordinator of regiona programs for the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Seciences, regnum.ru reported February 20.

    In the expert's opinion, "It is still not too late for Russia to stop this process, otherwise before the end of this year, another process may be initiated regarding the withdrawal of the Russian military base from Tajikistan. Evidently the US is placing its bets on Rahmon according to the principle, 'he's a bastard but our bastard," and it's understandable that they are absolutely indifferent to the nation of this regime when it's a question of the strategic plans for deploying part of the troops withdrawn from Afghanistan in the countries of the region."

    Knyazev sees the situation crudely — bribes to key officials, and support for a "thin layer of Westernized youth" and some of the intelligentsia that are "nationalist-minded"  and see the West as "the lesser of two evils". This "layer" will activate "numerous Western NGOs for 'colour scenarios', not to really bring them about but as "a lever of pressure on Rahmon".

    Border Ceremony
    Photo by US Embassy Tajikistan

    US Equipment for Tajikistan

    The United States Embassy in Dushanbe, Export Control and Related
    Border Security program (EXBS) and Office of Military Cooperation (OMC)
    provided twenty-two All – Terrain Vehicles (ATV’s), thirty-three light
    trucks and additional tactical equipment to the Government of
    Tajikistan. The ATV’s will be distributed to border posts throughout
    Tajikistan to assist Border Guard units in their efforts to combat
    contraband from entering and transiting the country.  The light trucks
    and tactical equipment will similarly benefit Border Guard detachments,
    outposts, and units, increasing their capacity for securing the Tajik
    border from external threats.  

    Deputy Chief of Mission, Sarah Penhune participated in a donation
    ceremony at the Border Guard Facility in Dushanbe.  Ms. Penhune
    remarked, “The United States Government shares the goals of the
    Government of Tajikistan to combat the threat of contraband and drug
    trafficking and recognizes that keeping Tajikistan’s borders secure is a
    national priority.  The Border Guards are the first line of defense for
    Tajikistan from external threats, and they are frequently required to
    carry out this important work with limited resources, in very difficult
    terrain, and often during very challenging weather conditions.  The U.
    S. Embassy EXBS and OMC programs are pleased to assist the Border Guard
    in their efforts to combat the threat of contraband and drug
    trafficking.”

    Tajik Parade
    Where the Chaikas are still in service…Tajik Military Parade, Photo:  Presidential Press Service.

    Tajik President Calls on Army to Resist External Threats

    At a meeting to honour the 20th anniversary of Tajikistan's Armed Forces, the president called on the military and law-enforcement agencies to take into account growing "threats of modernity" such as terrorism, extremism and narcotics, regnum. ru and president.tj reported.

    "I have noted many times and emphasize once again that security the security of the state and nation, protecting civilian life and the socio-economic development of the country directly depends on the political situation, law and order, guarantee of the rule of law, combatting crime and protecting our boarders," the news agency Avesta reported, citing the president.

    Suspects Tried For Killing Of Local Tajik Security Chief

    Two suspects in the high-profile killing of a top security official have
    gone on trial in Tajikistan's restive Gorno-Badakhshan region.

    Supreme Court judge Mirzoali Karimov confirmed to RFE/RL that the trial
    started on February 19 in the southeastern province's capital, Khorugh.

    The sessions are being held behind closed doors.

    Tajik Activist Stabbed in Moscow

    A well-known Tajik journalist and activist has been stabbed in Moscow.

    Bakhtior Sattori told RFE/RL in a telephone interview on February 20 that an unknown assailant attacked him near his apartment.

    Sattori said he was stabbed in the stomach and face on February 19.

    Tajik Investigator Gets Two-Year Prison Sentence For Suspect's Death

    A court in Dushanbe has sentenced police investigator Abdurahmon Dodov
    to two years in prison for negligence that caused a suspect's death in
    custody.

    In 2011, Bahromiddin Shodiev was arrested in Dushanbe on suspicion of theft.

    The following day, he was taken in a comatose state to a hospital, where he died 10 days later.

    Before he died, Shodiev regained consciousness and told relatives he had
    been beaten until he confessed to crimes he had not committed.

    Journalists Stabbing a Warning for Tajik Opposition ht/ @randomdijit

    A Russian human rights activist who has worked closely with Sattori suggests
    [ru] that the assault on Sattori was a “political order,” and that the
    journalist was punished for his ties with Quvvatov and his recent
    attempts to mobilize international pressure in order to prevent the
    politician's extradition to Tajikistan. It is unclear what the
    journalist himself makes of the attack. In his interview with Radio
    Ozodi, Sattori said [ru] he did not know whom to blame for an apparent attempt on his life. A bit later, however, he told [ru] BBC he knew who was behind the attack, suggesting also that this was a powerful person within the Tajik government.

    @asodiqov

    Is the stabbing of a Tajik journalist a taste of things to come ahead of presidential election? http://goo.gl/XjNPx  #Tajikistan #Sattori

    Ukrainian Court Extends Detention For Former Tajik Prime Minister

    A court in Ukraine has ruled that former Tajik Prime Minister Abdumalik
    Abdullojonov can be held in detention for up to 40 days while
    authorities await documents from Dushanbe regarding his possible
    extradition.

    Abdullojonov was arrested on February 5 at Boryspil Airport near Kyiv on
    an international warrant after arriving from the United States.

    Kiva Projects in Tajikistan

    1293497
    Salimboy has raised 41% of the $1075 he needs for a small business.

    Could you buy some mutton for Abdumanon or livestock for Salimboy? Or perfume for Sanifa?

    $17,696,350 have been lent to projects in Tajikistan through Kiva.

    A Greater Iran? h/t @joshuakucera (Translation from Russian)

    Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry has made an official announcementi n which it has condemned the statement by Ayatollah Said Muhammad Bokiri Harrozi, a presidential candidate, that in the event that he becomes president of Iran, then Tajikistan, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be returned to Iran, news.tj reported.

    The Foreign Minister noted that the statement appeared on  http://cheshmandaz.org on February 5.

    Iranian President to Visit Tajikistan in March

    Ahmadinejad will visit Tajikistan in the last week of March to meet with the Tajik president, attend Novruz celebrations, and attend the launch of Sangtuda Hydropower Station No. 2

    Most Foreign Students in Tajikistan for Iran h/t @eTajikistan

    eTajikistan
    ‏@eTajikistan

    #Tajikistan's 2130 foreign univ students: Iran 29%, Turkmenistan 17%, Uzbekistan 12% Afghan 11% India 9% http://www.ozodi.org/content/article/24910091.html … @RadioiOzodi

    Now here's the Russian which will be easier for many to read.

    Video by state.gov

    Secretary of State Kerry Discovers "Kyrzakstan"

    Tengrinnews.kz and other regional media poked fun at newbie Secretary of State John Kerry when he seemed to speak of a new country, "Kyrzakstan," in his speech at the University of Virginia at Charlottesville. They picked up Global Post's coverage of Kerry's speech — no other US or English-speaking media seems to have the story. Said Kerry:

    "They support democratic transitions in 'Kyrzakhstan' and Georgia,
    mindful from our own experience that it takes a long time to get
    democracy right, and that it rarely happens right away.”

    In a telephone conversation Kerry also thanked Kazakhstan for agreeing to hold talks on Iran's nukes.

    State.gov's transcript has it correctly as "Kyrgyzstan". But at about 30:14 or so on the video tape, you can hear Kerry make a slight muff of the name of this Central Asian country. Even so, the overall message in support of democracy, lest anyone think only the neo-cons will carry this torch, is clear:

    We value human rights, and we need to tell the story of America’s
    good work there, too. We know that the most effective way to promote the
    universal rights of all people, rights and religious freedom, is not
    from the podium, not from either end of Pennsylvania Avenue. It’s from
    the front lines – wherever freedom and basic human dignity are denied.
    And that’s what Tim Kaine understood when he went to Honduras.

    The brave employees of State and USAID – and the Diplomatic Security
    personnel who protect the civilians serving us overseas – work in some
    of the most dangerous places on Earth, and they do it fully cognizant
    that we share stronger partnerships with countries that share our
    commitment to democratic values and human rights. They fight corruption
    in Nigeria. They support the rule of law in Burma. They support
    democratic institutions in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, mindful from our own
    experience that it takes a long time to get democracy right, and that it
    rarely happens right away.

    In the end, all of those efforts, all of that danger and risk that
    they take, makes us more secure. And we do value democracy, just as
    you’ve demonstrated here at UVA through the Presidential Precinct
    program that’s training leaders in emerging democracies.

     

    Big Gas Find in Tajikistan

    @edwardlucas Byebye water melons, hello gas & oil #Tajikistan nat gas reserves est 2x #Norway's. … via @TajAnalytical @eTajikistan

    @joshuakucera

     
    Wow: so is this natural gas find in Tajikistan for real? Double Norway's reserves?

     

    Tumblr_mi2hjyF0t31qaejg5o1_500
    Children Get Help from MSF on Drug-Resistant TB

     

    o Julie Judkins, representative of the Appalachian Trail, visited Tajikistan recently through a US program and spoke about the importance of community trails.

    Here's her photos and text.

    o @USAIDCtrAsia

    We hosted a training for 18 #Tajik children’s book writers/illustrators to improve books in #mothertongue & we'll publish 30 new kid's books

    Dushanbe
    Dushanbe apartment building, September 2012. Photo by Eric Haglund.

  • Will Unrest Break Out in Central Asia or the Caucasus?

    Turkmens on Flag Day
    Turkmens performing in state-orchestrated parade on Flag Day in Ashgabat. Photo by Golden Age, State News Agency of Turkmenistan.

    No.

    At least, not right now, and probably not next week.

    Oh, there might be another wave of pogroms as there was in Osh in Kyrgyzstan in June 2010 where hundreds of people were killed, mainly Uzbeks, and thousands displaced, but it might be in some other setting, not Kyrgyzstan's south, but who knows, maybe Tajikistan, as police shoot-outs of suspected terrorists have occurred regularly there since the civil war was over.

    Or there might be another massacre of workers as there were in Zhanaozen, Kazakhstan in 2011, but probably not that again, and not there.

    That's just it — whenever unrest does break out, whether in Andijan in 2005 in Uzbekistan, where hundreds were massacred or in Osh as I mentioned in 2010, the authorities make sure it is tamped down very well after that, making numerous arrests, silencing or jailing journalists and bloggers and citizen reporters. So that's that, we get it.

    Except, we don't. Because unrest does occur, sometimes with large numbers of people, and it surprises those who aren't prepared. Like the overthrow of Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan in 2012, which shows signs of Russian engineering, but which couldn't have succeeded if there hadn't been underlying social disatisfaction with energy price hikes (induced by Russia) and other deeper and long-term economic and social malaise.

    Nobody was ready when 20,000 or even 60,000 people came out on the main squares of Moscow and other Russian cities after Putin's orchestrated re-election, and nobody who got enthusiastic about the prospects then was ready for the severity of the crackdown that is now inevitably coming.

    So yeah, unrest, but they tamp it down but then, they don't. So you have to be ready, and you have to have some theory about how society changes in these countries — and that would not be "due to Internet penetration" or "development of the middle class" — the mantras rehearsed by State Department officials and pundits worldwide. If only Internet saturation reaches X point that it reached in, oh, Iran or Azerbaijan (where unrest is reaching the thousands now in demonstration), why we might see those droids we're looking for.

    But oh, remember This is What Can Happen To You, when Katy Pearce and Sarah Kendzior said about Azerbaijan that publicizing the news of the crackdown on Internet bloggers would chill the use of the Internet? Make people not want to go online or be very careful about their activities online? Remember how I was browbeaten to death for daring to suggest there was an Internet surge in Uzbekistan? But I countered this and said it was an Internet campaign that got the "donkey bloggers" released and I countered their theories of the efficacy of "networked authoritiarianism" (Rebeccah McKinnon's term) here and here (Is There an Arab Spring Bounce in Azerbaijan?) and then here for Central Asia. That is, I don't have ANY illusions that any Twitter revos are coming soon to these countries to utterly turn them over from head to foot, but I do ask: Why Can't We Say Azerbaijani Protest is Influenced by the Arab Spring and Social Media? Of course you can, and you don't need me to say this, you now have the released Emin Milli on the conference circuit to say it.

    So last week, we were told at the OSCE Internet 2013 conference by Milli, the former political prisoner and blogger who just served 15 days in jail for his chronicling of demonstrations over the death of a soldier in the army, that there are one million sign-ups on Facebook. That's a lot of people for this small country. Socialbakers, the industry source on Facebook sign-ups, says there are more than a million now.

    Says Socialbakers:

    Our social networking statistics show that Facebook penetration in Azerbaijan
    is 12.20% compared to the
    country's population and 23.97% in relation
    to number of Internet users. The total number of FB users in Azerbaijan
    is reaching 1013080 and grew by more than
    147280 in the last 6 months

    Internet penetration was reported as 44% in 2010 by the ITU; then it was reported last year as 68% and is growing. So it's a lot, and people who say that Azeris are scared off the Internet by oppression were wrong, but people who say that such large percentages of Internet penetration will lead to revolution are also wrong, as the authorities are still very skillful in picking out people to coopt, intimidate or jail and torture as needed to keep the peace — especially for those Western oil and gas companies coming in to develop the Shah Deniz II fields.

    The number of people on the square in Azerbaijan isn't one million and isn't 28,000 but more like 2,000 or 200 sometimes, depending on the topic.

    Now, Central Asia is much, much more "backward" or behind when it comes to the Internet, let alone Facebook, and has not had the kind of "Youtube protests" about local official corruption that then leads to street demonstrations — although the phenomenon still can be found here and there even in these countries.

    So you have to be ready, as these things can jump the synapse — significant unrest/revolution/unheavals in Azerbaijan would obviously affect other neighbouring countries and so on.

    Even so, we're been getting for years now articles that tell us not to worry, everything is boringly stable in Central Asia, and implying that anyone who crafts any other scenario is just hopelessly mired in Twitter mania and Jeff Jarvis-style over-romanticization of social media's power (that would not be me) or just not "getting it" about the Arab Spring, which didn't turn  out to be "all that" in the end as we well know (and this article, Aftermath of a Revolution, in the International Herald Tribune really sums it up well).

    Even so, along comes Sarah Kendzior to tell us that everything is boringly stable: The Curse of Stability. Kendzior, who, together with Katy Pearce, in an article they'd probably like to forget now, told us how cautious we must all be about Azerbaijan (and the big crackdown and big sleep could be still coming there anyway as well all know, but each time the concentric circles grow).

    This article was kind of written already on Kendzior's political home base, Registan.net, by Myles Smith: Central Asia: What Not to Look For, datelined January 2013.

    Kendzior doesn't link to her colleague but should have, as he put down the markers for the prediction businesss, and I couldn't disagree, although as I said, you really need to have better theories of change and a more hopeful expectation about the people in these countries and their need to have a better life than they do under their current dictatorships.

    I could answer Kendzior in detail but then, I already have in the past, and did on another article exactly a year ago by another specialist, Scott, Radnitz, Waiting for Spring, who told us "not to hold our breaths" and compare Central Asia to the Arab Spring — and it's a good thing we didn't, as we'd be as blue as a UN peacekeeper's helmet now.

    Even so, I'll just cut and paste below the fold what I put in the comments to Radnitz's peace again, because it still applies. And keep in mind that what the Arab Spring had was Al Jazeera (not WikiLeaks or Anonymous, silly, that's just self-serving hacker twaddle). Central Asia doesn't have that; it has Russian TV. So, you get what you get, even if you add Facebook.

    (more…)

  • Russian Human Rights Defender Receives Death Threats for Work in Central Asia

    Vitaly Ponomaryov (also spelled Ponomarev), a veteran Russian human rights advocate at Memorial Society for Central Asia, has been receiving some nasty death threats in relationship to his work in the region.

    I have known and worked with Vitaly for years, and he is one of the most solid and dedicated researchers on human rights and humanitarian issues for Central Asia. Memorial Society is the leading Russian human rights organization devoted to keeping the memory of the victims of the crimes of Stalin and also preventing and responding to their legacy, the human rights violations of today under the Putin regime. Russians tend to be preoccupied with the human rights problems in their own country, of which there are no shortage, but it has been the hallmark of Memorial that they try to care about what is happening outside of Moscow, especially in places where the Russian government can be part of the problem.

    Ponomaryov was particularly noted recently in 2010 when he did difficult, in-depth and dangerous reporting about the pogroms in the south of Kyrgyzstan.

    Ponomaryov is a modest fellow who will not go around trying to get press attention, so it's up to his friends to spread the word and speak to their governments and ask them to intercede with Uzbek and Russian authorities so that they investigate these threats. These incidents are in a context of increasing threats to Russian human rights defenders such as Tanya Lokshina of Human Rights Watch in Moscow and takes place in a climate of crackdown by both Russian and Uzbek authorities on human rights groups.

    I saw Sanjar Umarov, the former Uzbek political prisoner, instantly responded on Twitter when he heard the news and linked to BBC Uzbek Service which carried a report.

    Now the Norwegian Helsinki Committee has published some material in English, which I reprint below:

    Investigate threats against Memorial Central Asia staff

    Investigate threats against Memorial Central Asia staff

    The Norwegian Helsinki Committee
    was distressed to learn of serious, anonymous threats made against the
    Central Asia Program
    Director of Human Rights Center Memorial,
    Vitaliy Ponomarev, on 12 January 2012 and urges Russian and Uzbekistani
    authorities
    to open an investigation.

    Mr. Ponomarev is a prominent human rights
    defender and researcher based in Moscow, who has led Memorial’s
    important work in
    Central Asia since 1999. On 12 January, he
    received several e-mails from different internet addresses, containing
    disturbing
    death threats against himself and members
    of his family.

    While the threats were made anonymously, they
    were sent from the same IP-address, found to be located in Tashkent,
    Uzbekistan.
    The emails themselves were made to appear
    to be from ethnic Uzbeks residing in the south of Kyrgyzstan. However,
    Memorial
    reported that linguistic analysis
    indicates the use of an Uzbek dialect used in Tashkent rather than in
    Kyrgyzstan.

    Human Rights Center Memorial has reported
    the threats to the Federal Security Service of Russia (FSB) and the
    Prosecutor General’s
    office, requesting that an investigation
    into the threats be carried out.


    – Unfortunately, threats against human
    rights defenders have become commonplace in the CIS. The reason for such
    threats can
    often be hard to pinpoint, said Secretary
    General of the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, Bjørn Engesland. – In Mr.
    Ponomarev’s
    case, the threats would seem to come from
    persons who are concerned at the unusually high quality of his work to
    expose human
    rights violations.

    More here on his past publications and current work.

    FrontLine Defenders also has an appeal and further information.

    Here's an interview in English with Ponomaryov by the NewsBriefing Central Asia, which explains an important thesis: that the thousands of people the Uzbek authorities have arrested and tortured on vague grounds of "religious extremism" in fact leads to instability, not stability.

  • More on the Immorality of Drones and Evil Robots

    Yoshimi Battles the Pink Robots by The Flaming Lips

    Joshua Foust, the former defense contractor who now serves as a non-senior analyst at John Kerry's American Security Project, has yet another piece published on the liberal PBS site about why the Obama Administration should continue to feel good about drones.

    It's in response to a report by Human Rights Watch called appropriately Losing Humanity.

    The premise is basically — oh, you civilians and peaceniks filled with FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt as the geeks called it)! You just don't get it and you just aren't cool because you can't realize how efficient drones are and don't realize how much we already use robotic stuff. Silly you, and stupid you! And smart me!

    My answer:

    The reason a lot of science fiction is scary is not because it's about machines, but because it's about people — people against other people, and not under a shared sense of the rule of law.

    The computer code that runs the killing machines is made by humans and is a concretization of their will, not something uncontrollable or entirely automatic and escaped from their control.

    More importantly, the decisions about where to deploy the machines that involve targets drawn from Panatir data-dredging, or heat-seeking missiles or counter-mortar systems are made by humans. Before drones are deployed, humans sometimes have to do things like call up leaders of countries and seek their intelligence and their clearance. So, in the first place, nothing that is portrayed here as automatic is in fact as automatic as Foust strangely makes it seem, because it's in a context and a system where humans do make decisions about the very theaters of war in the first place.

    Yet precisely because in our time, the weapons are far more automated, and in the case of drones, there is a greater acceleration and precision — and therefore ease and seeming moral comfort — in their use, we have to look at the moral dimension. Foust seems content if drones just don't miss very often or don't have much collateral damage. But if they get so easy to use, won't the temptation be to do more killing with them and make them more automatic? Where will it stop and who will be authorized to make the judgement call?

    There's also the question of whether it's really the case that drones *are* so precise, given how many reports there are from human rights groups and local lawyers about non-combatants, including children, who are hit. These victims can't seek compensation, as their counterparts killed by regular US or NATO actions with more traditional weapons can, because drones are in a secret program run by the CIA, and not the military. This is apparently because of the need to keep them secret, apparently particularly from the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    So this raises questions of governance, as to whether we can morally retain these weapons as secret and unaccountable, and whether we should put them under the regular armed forces' leadership.

    More automation can in fact decouple the moral imperative from the results of the action of weapons particularly because of the acceleration and capacity for devastation.

    Foust has a curious coda to yet another unconscionable piece in defense of drones as efficient war-machines — he posits the idea that a less active role by people — i.e. less compunction about use and nature of targets and consequences — could somehow be a goal, and that more automation need not diminish our values. How?

    In fact, if these programs reflect our values, they would have to become less secret, and attacks less common. Foust has already stripped away the moral context by pretending to find all kinds of "good" uses of "automation" that in fact a) aren't automation as he claims because of the prior choices about war in the first place, and theaters of war, and targets and b) have more unintended consequences than he prepares to admit.

    As Foust notes, the Pentagon released a directive on "appropriate levels of human judgement," but Foust seems to think the radiant future can contain more automated processes if we can just all agree on our priorities.

    There's nothing wrong with a cultural heritage that seems autonomous robots as deadly; they are. Pentagon planners and the CIA don't wish to kill civilians who are not combatants. Yet they do. They do because the targets often tend to have their families around them and the military can't wait until they get into the clear. That's the crux of the problem.

    There's a strange notion that raising any moral questions about killing machines, as Human Rights Watch has done, is motivated by "fear". It seems simply to be more motivated by morality, and also the practical sense that machines don't have consciences, and code never renders human interaction as perfectly as real life.

  • Why Can’t Human Rights Activists Walk and Chew Gum at the Same Time?

    It's a good thing that the European Court of Human Rights has pronounced on the case of the CIA's wrongful detention and mistreatmet of Khaled el-Masri as torture. This sheds a needed spotlight on the CIA's widely-denounced rendition program and hopefully will put an end to it as not only a gross violation of human rights but a conflict generator. (Among the persistent theories for the Benghazi attack is a story that the CIA was holding detainees suspected of terrorism in the Benghazi compound.)

    But Jim Goldston, head of the Soros-funded Open Society Justice Initiative, has trouble telling the whole story on the way to making this case part of the anti-American cause. So does the leftist Guardian. So do a lot of people.

    It's a narrative echoed by a lot of NGOs and individuals all over the world, and usually with none of the lawyerly care that Goldston brings to his work.

    The end of Khaled el-Masri's sad story is that he is now in prison again — this time, legitimately — for assaulting the mayor of a German town and starting a fire over a dispute. He is serving a two-year sentence.

    Now, perhaps you can craft an entire theory not only about his unhappy childhood and the trauma inflicted on him by the CIA that led him to this sorry pass, where he is now in jail for cause, not accidently.

    So OSI and other human rights advocates just leave out that part out of the story — it's awkward, it doesn't fit, and they don't think it matters. In a strict construction of "trial truth" it doesn't matter, either — whatever the nature of the defendant's character or his separate acts in other settings, if he has been tortured in detention, his rights are violated and that's it, he deserves justice and compensation.

    But in the moral and political universe that these human rights groups always pretend they don't inhabit (but actually occupy only one wing of), the larger issue acutely remains of what the CIA and the US government and the West in general are all to do about a population of young, angry Muslim men some of who actually are guilty of launching attacks on them, some of whom are only guilty of inciting such attacks or yakking them up on the Internet, and some of whom are innocent of any act, while they nurture hostile, extremist views that ultimately ensure a chronic climate of antagonism.

    Step one might seem obvious — have the CIA stop rendering and stop torturing. I'm all for that! Who isn't? Only the most obsessive conservatives in the US would really oppose it. Republicans like John McCain are in fact for publicizing and ending any US involvement in torture of foreigners and secret detention in foreign countries.

    But there's another half of this equation that human rights agitators never, ever want to admit, not only because it doesn't fit their paradigm of innocent victims, and disrupts the narrative of badly treated justice crusaders, but because then they'd have to face down their own clients' antagonism of the rights paradigm — and address the problem of their defense of jihad. In fact, where Amnesty International has gone completely wrong and utterly lost its way is in adopting a concept of "defensive jihad" that exonerates these violent clients and fits them in the same category as "prisoners of conscience", although the classic Amnesty definition of such persons was in fact that they not use or advocate violence.

    The fact of the matter is, if human rights activists only celebrate the victims of Guantanamo as victims, and use it to fuel their anti-American lefty agendas, they aren't credible, and they never do anything long-term to rectify situations like we now face in Egypt, where ultimately democracy and human rights are "a train that takes you to your destiny, and then you get off" as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has famously put it.

    If human rights groups really want to change the world, they need to change this narrative that enables victims of human rights violations — even if rightly established as victims — also to become some kind of heroes of human rights — which they aren't. And that means not hiding the story, but telling it in all its complexities. It means admitting that the cases are not black-and-white and that the principles of justice they fight for have to apply to the civilians harmed by extremism and terrorism as well.

    In dealing with these Guantanamo cases, US authorities face a number of real challenges for which human rights groups really haven't come up with good answers: some of the people they have released have gone on to commit terrorist attacks again; some of them incite hatred and violation of others' human rights, i.e. of women, such as the Cage Prisoners group in the UK; some are mentally ill, either because they started out that way or became that way from mistreatment; some of them would be at risk of being tortured far more severely in their homelands like Yemen or Uzbekistan.

    So what's a liberal if flawed superpower to do? It would be great if these suspects could be transferred to US prisons in US states that appear eager to take them, and try them normally as other terrorist suspects have been tried. It would be great if more European countries would simply take them so that the US doesn't have to endlessly fight the challenge here at home from some districts and some political forces that don't want them here (which perplexingly, seem still to have power, even though we are now in Obama II, and Obama really should must the power to address this chronic situation).

    But…I'm told that when Europeans are asked — when they complain about Guantanamo — to take the prisoners themselves, they look at their shoes. If Spain and Switzerland took some, that's great, but what about the rest? Do you want to keep them suffering to make a point in your hateful and facile anti-American agenda, or do you really want to solve their problems?

    The US really needs to step up its clear and straight-talking rhetoric around this instead of remaining silent and in crouch mode. Part of the way they clear the air is to apologize and provide reasonable restitution to Masri; part of the way is to solidly articulate the real challenges of these people and what they represent and not pretend its a mere civil rights problem. If America — and more importantly Western human rights organizations with high visibility — could provide a way to address the challenges of these violent and incendiary populatinos without pretense, they might provide a model for awful governments like Uzbekistan and Russia and Turkey that endlessly justify their mistreatment of suspects because of the real extremism they espouse.

    Yes, the US makes grave errors in its war on terrorism. But you know, it really time to grow up and stop the litany of "Bush lied, people died" on the Iraq war, when it isn't US troops who massacred most of the 100,000 people in Iraq, but militants and terrorists aided by Al Qaeda, Iran and other hostile actors. Ditto the war in Afghanistan, where the Taliban and its allies kill 85% of the civilians — and where the scene was set not by US support of mujahideen, but the Soviet massacre of a million — a million! — Afghan civilians. Let's get the historical and political framework straight here, people.

    There just isn't enough good public American rhetoric on these issues — it's the sort of connection people like Alec Ross could be making instead of burbling inanely about "innovation" and "shifts of power to the people and end to hierarchies" as he did recently in Pakistan, a place where no shift of power is occuring except to the very present hierarchy of the ISI and the terrorists its supports.

    What's happening as a result of the crouching and dodging and leaving the narrative to "progressives" like Jim Goldston who won't tell the whole story is that entire generations in Eurasia and other areas of the world living under oppression are getting to engage in surrogate politics and chime in with anti-Americans instead of facing their own far more oppressive governments at home.

    Somebody like "eTajikistan" on Twitter, in between tweets about American-funded educational opportunities, is enabled in this immoral climate created by the international elites of the human rights movement to rant endlessly about the need to apologize to Masri or close Guantanamo. But then he never has to do more than occasionall retweet anything about the problems both of the tyrant Emmomali Rahmon and the Islamists he faces. The e-activists living abroad can indulge in a placebo and rant about seeming US support of their government, but not confront either the dictatorship or its enemies that enable it to justify its existence.

    Indeed, one gets the impression that US-funded educational programs, Soros-funded NGOs, and of course the American innovation of Twitter, have enabled entire swathes of intellectuals who should be sweeping around their own doors and addressing tyranny at home to endlessly broom the US and Israel as hated symbols along with a choir that mainly preaches to its own countries in the West.

    I wondered at the endless heckling I got from certain Pakistani journalists and bloggers when I criticized Pakistani government reluctance to take on the Taliban and even support it through their intelligence arm, even as I was critical of drone attacks that have harmed Pakistani civlians. Aren't Pakistani activists able to walk and chew gum at the same time, either?  Can't they condemn the shooting of Malala, the killing of children by drones AND take a whack at those terrorists in the Taliban and Al Qaeda that make it possible for the US to keep justifying its drones? Hello? Why?

    Then I clicked through the screens and eventually got an admission that these Pakistanis were supporters of Imre Khan, already the target of controversy over the US antiwar group CODE PINK's decision to hook up with him to protest drones in a one-sided fashion.

    Or I was dealing with Pakistani immigrants in Brisbane — which provides a home for other Muslim hecklers on Twitter who are long gone from their oppressive homelands — and have found in the anti-Western cause and the hating of America and Israel a comfortable placebo that helps them fit in with their newfound homeland's liberals.

    And the cycle of violence from disaffected angry young men, some of them mistreated, continues, and never gets better.

     

  • Tajik Opticon #3

     

    Prokudin-Gorsky
    1907 Solar Eclipse Expedition by Sergei Prokhudi-Gorskii, Russian Photographer in Central Asia.

    This is my little weekly newsletter on Saturdays about Tajikistan. You can send news or comments or get it sent by email by writing to me at [email protected]

    COMMENT:

    So the in-your-face Tajik telecommunications official Beg Zuhorov did keep his word as I reported last week and opened back up the Internet sites Facebook and RFE/RL  — after implying they could be shut any time by having announced that "the public" had complained about "extremism" (never explained precisely). It turns out some of the providers didn't even bother to follow the blocking orders, and one of them was owned by President Emmomali  Rahmonov's own son. It always annoys me when a story likes this gets reported by EurasiaNet.org and others as a Bad Thing About Central Asia, and gets  picked up by numerous tech sites, blogs, etc. but then the un-doing of the Bad Thing doesn't get reported. At least RFE/RL had a report about its unblocking but it was never clear what it was really all about.

    While it may be only a coincidence, given how many of these types of trials are, the blockage came just as a group of people were about to go on trial for this nebulous "extremism" in Khojand (the verdict was announced after websites were running again). This seems a particularly strange and brutal case — among the 7 defendants are two middle-aged women and their minor teenage sons, 16 and 18 (the defendant was arrested before he turned 18). They all got very high sentences for "advocating the violent overthrow of the Constitutional order". Helpfully, they pleaded guilty using the exact same language of the charges in the criminal code. But we have no idea what they actually did. It's hard to picture these moms and their teenage sons throwing bombs.

    I have no use for Hizb-ut-Tahir; I have absolutely no hesitation condemning it as extremist and likely cunning and duplicitous about its ultimate aims. It claims that it is merely "peacefully" going about building a caliphate, i.e. theocratic rule, but it never explains what the plans are for all the infidels who don't want a caliphate. Too often, HuT members or ex-members, as somebody always patiently explains in exasperation at your suspicions, are tried and found guilty of real crimes. Even Western countries like Germany have banned the group.

    It's too bad that human rights groups and pundits who see these kinds of awful cases such as occurred in Khujand can't find a way to condemn the way the Tajik government misuses the law and persecutes people — AND condemn the groups that seem to have gotten their clutches into ordinary poor people in this backward country. I'm quite prepared to believe that all these people involved are innocent, and even the repeat offenders at least suffered lack of due process, yet I'd like to see the literature, the activities and the groups behind these cases as well — and I don't see anything wrong with morally condemning them and opposing them, even if the opposition should not take the form of prosecution. There is such a legion of determined do-gooders with the position that HuT is innocent because innocent people are wrongfully prosecuted over HuT that I am the only person in the metaverse with this position. I wish I had more company. If I had more company, and if especially Tajik journalists and human rights activists felt more free to condemn HuT and make the distinctions between the group's reprehensible goals and those victimized around it, I think we might see less victims.

    The World Bank is telling the Tajiks to cut their already very sparse electricity consumption in half. Tajikistan is already a place with blackouts and the lights going off all the time routinely, yet it's like that old Vietnam-war joke about the Soviets writing to the Vietnamese Communists: "Tighten your belts!" Reply: "What are belts? Send them!"

    This outrageous austerity program is unlikely to get consent from the Tajik government, but I really have to wonder why it is even being proposed. Yes, electricity is the cheapest in the world, but the country is also among the poorest in the world AND it is supplying some of its power to war-torn Afghanistan, which the US is usually grateful for. I guess I can think of a lot of things that might be done to save energy in Tajikistan before consumers are told to shut off their lights. It's not like they're leaving their computers and kindles and microwaves plugged in all night running. Example: are there a lot of Soviet-era huge Stalin-type giant buildings all over the place? Why are they being heated day and night?  And is the government looking the other way or even taking bribes while some companies steal electricity, as they do in Uzbekistan? If I were Tajikistan, I'd stall on that outrageous World Bank proposal and tell them to get busy doing a usage and hot spots report for a year and get back to them.

    Seems like the US military also wants to tell Tajikistan not to run their toasters too much: in a tweet, the Central Asia Newswire tells Dushanbe that austerity, not Roghun, is the answer. To be honest, I don't have an informed opinion as to whether it's true that Roghun is the ecology-busting monster that Uzbek propagandists claim — who have an easier time making their case in the world media and world's institutions than Tajikistan. The World Bank has gotten stung around the world over the decades backing big, stupid, expensive, destructive dam projects, and now all that Western NGO yammering against them has caught up with them — and they have to take it out on Tajikistan, I guess. There doesn't seem to be an international multilateral organization that seems to have the stamina to take this issue on — neither the UN, despite the marbled heated halls of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Ashgabat, nor the World Bank, or OSCE has been able to get the traction to really decide this for the region – read: stand up to Russia, waiting in the wings, and Uzbekistan, which is nasty.

    So, like a lot of things in Central Asian life, maybe it will be left to the Chinese…

    Surprise — Tajikistan is corrupt, says Transparency International in its latest report. But interestingly, it's not *as* corrupt as its immediate neighbours. There's a 20 point or more gap in their scores, even though all of them are hugging the bottom of the barrel. Now why is that? Is there a fine line between corruption that is deterred through authoritarian persecution (i.e. as in Iran, not an ideal way to handle it obviously) and authoritarian persecution that in fact only leads to corruption to get around it? (Uzbekistan). Or are their cultural factors? Or is it that if you are just too poor, with half your GDP made up of people gone abroad to work,  it's hard to be corrupt?

    Cue up the garden perennial story that the Russian language is dying out because somebody has made a trip to Dushanbe and has anecdotes to tell. Sorry, this old Russian-speaker isn't buying it. Maybe because I speak Russian to all the Tajiks I ever run into in New York or Washington, even 20-somethings, and they never seem surprised or angry. Now, I get it that Russian isn't being taught as much, that young people aren't speaking it as much, and so on. And there's also the living fact that actual native Russian-speakers are being driven out of Tajikistan by repression and poverty — doctors and engineers among the ethnic Russians and Russian speakers of the old Soviet Union are forced to leave — 3661 last year, which doesn't sound like very many, until you realize this is among the tens of thousands who have left since the fall o f the USSR, and they happen to be among many of the professionals. It's brain-drain, which isn't a surprising thing in a country where the dictator turns off Internet pages on a whim.

    Even so, I think programmers for this region, whether at RFE/RL or OSI or OSCE or any institution, have really lost an opportunity due to their hatred of Russians and aversion toward the Russian language. Here was this built-in lingua-franca that you didn't have to pay anyone to teach or learn, like English, which still isn't as widespread as these planners believe. There is all kind of literature — good, democratic literature — published by all kinds of institutions, including even the old CIA-funded bodies like the International Literary Center, now defunct. Here's a lingua franca, by the way, that would enable these peoples to talk to *each other* and others in the CIS who might support them and at least learn about their issues. Yet the nationalists in the State Department or Soros — the people who think that every country has to follow the path of Poland by relying on language and religion to gain freedom — block even the most benign efforts to try to have cross-border Russian materials. The radios don't have Russian-language pages for most of the stans, except Kazakhstan, where the excuse is that there is a large Russian minority. I wonder what their traffic is on that page from all the stans? Somebody in Turkmenistan has to find out free news in Russian from RFE/RL by going to the Kazakhstan page instead of the Turkmen page. The success of fergananews.com and chrono-tm.org in Russian should succeed in making the point to these planners that they are short-sighted and misled. They could be promoting local languages while also trying to use what remains of this lingua franca to promote freedom and understanding.

    Here's When to Schedule Your Trip to Dushanbe, Mark Zuckerberg

    Ever diligent Facebook friends have found out the office hours of Beg Zuhurov, the brazen Tajik official who justified the closure of Facebook on the grounds that "the public was complaining too much about extremism". The official is only at his desk to meet supplicants on Saturdays from 10:00 am to 12:00 pm. Nice! So after a week's hard work, just when you might be sleeping in or spending time with your family or doing your second job to make ends meet, that's when Zuhurov's office is open!

    Fergana.com reported that Tajikistan had blocked Facebook on November 27, and that Zuhurov had invited Zuckerberg "or one of his assistants" to come visit him to discuss the matter. All six Internet providers were ordered to block it and complied; mobile providers did the same.

    Zuhorov made this evasive comment at the time:

    I personally didn't give the order to block the access to the social network Facebook The Communications Service didn't give it either, but if it is necessary, the access will be closed. Every day I receive complaints from people about the contents on the network. The network does not resolve social issues, but purely commercial. Everyone remembers how the civil war began in the country, so then everything then began with criticism. We will not allow war to occur.

    I reported last week that Zuhorov then soon promised to unblock the sites — and he kept his word.

    Are Web Sites Unblocked in Tajikistan?

    But there was still due diligence to be done. Fergana.com asked on December 4 whether reports from RIA-Novosti, the Russian state news agency, were true that Facebook and other Internet sites were unblocked.

    "Access to Facebook is unblocked by the state Internet provider Tajik-telekom," Asomuddin Atoye, head of the Tajik association of Internet providers. "If the state Internet-provider has unblocked Facebook, then I'm sure there will be permission from the Communications Service for other providers and operators as well," Atotyev said.

    Some Tajik Providers Are More Equal Than Others

    Radio Liberty's Tajik Service Radio Ozodi reported that it was blocked on December 1, and apparently later that it  had been unblocked, fergananews.com reported. RFE/RL confirmed that the site was unblocked on December 3. This apparently happened after Tajik state agency for communications sent out SMS messages with "a demand to unblock the site". Fergananews.com was still trying to check whether this was true on December 4, and also discovered that some providers had never blocked the sites in the first place.

    Fergananews.com says a source reported:

    "You know why? Because, for example, the Saturn-Online provider belongs to the son of the president of the country, Rustam Emomalievich, and the Ministry of Communications doesn't touch that company."

    Russian Language Fading Away

    RFE/RL reports: A Tajik who grew up in Dushanbe but only
    recently returned after decades in Russia has noticed a change in the
    Tajik capital. Hardly anyone speaks Russian anymore.

    As Konstantin Parshin at EurasiaNet.org tells it: 

    Evidence is mostly anecdotal, but the linguistic changes are
    obvious to Tajiks who have been away for years. This past summer, for
    example, Ruslan Akhmedov wanted to sell an apartment he inherited, so
    returned to Dushanbe from a small Russian town where he's lived for most
    of his adult life. "I placed an ad in a local paper indicating my phone
    number," Akhmedov recalled. "Out of about thirty people who called me
    during the first couple of days, only three or four easily switched into
    Russian. With the others, I had to communicate in my primitive Tajik.
    Regrettably, I've almost forgotten the language."

    CIS Heads of State Meet 

    The heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States met in Ashgabat on December 6.

    Nothing happened.

    The Golden Age, the Turkmen government website, reported:

    The meeting participants considered and discussed a series of issues,
    including organizational. Owing to them, it was made relevant decisions.

    Wait. Did something happen? According to trend.az:

    The Declaration stressed that organized crime, terrorism, illegal drugs
    and psychotropic substances traffic are a serious threat to the security
    of CIS states.


    "We declare our intention to fight against these threats," the document said.

    Russia thinks something did happen, however. Putin hopes to use his leverage hosting the G20 and G8 meetings in Russia to represent Central Asia's intersts. RT reports:

    However, it can happen only on condition that these interests are timely and duly formulated, the Russian president added.

    Developing
    the topic of international cooperation, Vladimir Putin told the
    participants that they should develop and promote a common agenda in
    various other international organizations, such as the OSCE.

    Putin added that the current situation in this organization “was not a source of optimism”. “OSCE
    should have long ago stopped servicing the interests of certain
    countries and concentrate its attention on unification issues,” the Russian leader said.  Putin also expressed hope that when Ukraine takes it turn to chair the OSCE in 2013 it would promote this very position.

    Transparency:  Two-Thirds of Countries Said to Be 'Highly Corrupt

    RFE/RL reports:

    The anticorruption group Transparency
    International (TI) says high levels of bribery, abuse of power, and
    secret dealings continue to “ravage” societies around the world, despite
    a growing public outcry over corrupt governments.


    The annual Corruption Perceptions Index,
    published on December 5 by the Berlin-based group, shows that
    two-thirds of 176 countries are perceived by citizens to be highly
    corrupt.

    Tajikistan is among them, of course.  But as you can see from the map, it ranks only 157, by contrast with its neighbours Turkmenistan, at 170, and Afghanistan, at 174, Uzbekistan at 170, but not as good as Iran, at 133 and just a tad worse than Kyrgyzstan which is at 154.

    Intervention at the OSCE Ministerial Council

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a little bit to say about Tajikistan in her speech at the OSCE meeting of foreign ministers:

    In Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, there are
    examples of the restrictions of the freedom of expression online and
    offline as well as the freedom of religion.

    Ok, that's it. The resolution on digital freedom didn't pass, despite now finally — after some hard negotiations — having 47 signatories. Still, 57 are needed in this consensus organization.

    Russians Leave Tajikistan for Russia

    Asia-Plus says 3,661 people left for Russia this year.

    3,661 people have left Tajikistan for Russia under the Russian
    national program to assist the voluntary resettlement of
    fellow-countrymen living abroad to the Russian Federation since 2007.

    According to the Russian Federal Migration Service (FMS)’s office in Tajikistan, 62 percent of them have higher education.

    So these are ethnic Russians or Russian speakers of other "nationalities", i.e. not Tajiks or Tajik-spakers.

    Speaking at the meeting, Viktor Sebelev, the head of FMS’s office in
    Tajikistan, noted that 30 percent of those who had left Tajikistan for
    Russia under the mentioned program were technical and engineering
    employees and 15 percent physicians.  30 percent of physicians that have
    left Tajikistan fro Russia have scientific degrees.

    Court Sentences "Extremists" in Tajikistan

    Asia-Plus reports December 8 that in Khujand, seven people have been tried for "extremism," accused of membership in Hizb-ut-Tahir, which is a "banned religious extremist party" under Tajik law (in Russian).

    Judge Shukhrat Akhrorov said that the sentences were announced in investigation-isolation building no. 2 in Khujand, and that among the convicted were three women and one minor. Most of them pleaded guilty in exactly the language of the law itself, including "the forcible change of the Constitutional order," said the judge.

    Among them were two Chkalovsk residents, Islom Boboyev, 16, and Sukhrob Khafiz, now 18, were sentenced to 6 and 10 years incarceration, respectively, and were serve their terms in prison colonies under "strict" and "common educational" regimes, respectively.

    Others sentenced:

    Mavloniddin Ermatov, resident of Isfar, 28, second-time offender, 3 years strict regime colony

    Sattorkul Kholikulov, 36, resident of Zafarabad district, also repeat offender, 3 years strict regime.

    Mukhayyo Khafizov, mother of Sukhrob, 39, 12 years, common regimen prison colony

    Mukhabbat Khafizov, 28, 10 years prison

    Minir Boboyev, 40, mother of Islom Boboyev, sentenced to 8.5 years, common regimen prison colony.

    The sentences are being appealed.

    According to the Sogdi region prosecutor, "56 active members of religious and extremist parties have had their cases sent to court."

    Earthquake in Tajikistan

    4.7 magnitude, in Murghob.

    Joint Tajik-Afghan Drug Raid

    Tajik and Afghan authorities nabbed nearly 1,000 pounds of drugs in a six-day border operation.

    “The successful 6-day joint operation was launched in northern Afghan
    province of Badakhshan and Khatlon province in [southern] Tajikistan,”
    the Xinhua news agency reported Afghan Deputy Interior Minister Baz
    Mohammad Ahmadi said at a press conference. The seized drugs included
    heroin and opium.


    Thirteen Afghan citizens are now in custody, the minister said. There
    has been no official statement on any Tajiks arrested in the operation,
    although two Tajik women who had been taken hostage by the drug
    traffickers were released.

    No word on any psychotropic drugs.

    World Bank Advises Tajikistan to Hike Electricity Price 50%

        Central Asia Newsire reports:

    The World Bank has advised authorities in Tajikistan to hike
    electricity prices by 50 percent as part of its solution to the
    country’s perennial winter power crisis, local media reported on
    Tuesday.

    The study, entitled “Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis: Electricity
    Supply and Demand Alternatives”, notes that aside from the country’s
    inability to meet energy requirements, consumers are not incentivized to
    use power carefully.

    That article doesn't mention Roghun, yet the US military-funded Central Asia Newswires has some advice on top of the World Bank's report in the tweet sent to link to the World Bank report

    #Rogun is not answer to #electricity woes – increasing fares, conserving #energy is

    Automatic Check-in Down at Dushanbe Airport

    Central Asia Newswire reports that Tajikistan’s international airport at Dushanbe have been checked-in the
    old fashioned way for the last two weeks over a pay dispute, citing local media
    outlets.

    David Trilling of Eurasianet.org calls this "one of the world's worst airports" and tweets that it "just got more inefficient".

    Forests and Wildlife Increased in Endangered Area in Tajikistan

    Good news! UNDP reports:

    Tajikistan’s Vakhsh River valley is crucial to the livelihoods and food
    security of millions of people, but the degradation of natural resources
    has been persistent and extensive over the past 100 years. The tugai
    forests, reservoirs of biodiversity and source of income for local
    communities, have been stripped at an ever-escalating rate, either to
    clear land for agriculture or as source of energy.

    But UNDP stepped in with a project to reverse these trends.

    After four years, an evaluation of the project found that tree-cutting
    had declined by 90 percent since 2008, allowing the forest to
    regenerate, while populations of birds and animals increased by 50
    percent. Community members say they feel a sense of pride and ownership
    in what they have been able to accomplish. "Protecting the forests is a
    noble cause that should always be supported," says Bekmurodov
    Kurbonmahmad, a member of the committee.

    Did they stop cutting trees merely because they ran out of them? What are they using for fuel now? Animal dung? And while it's great that the animals returned, how are the people doing?

    In the district of Jura Nazarov, UNDP assisted communities with other
    aspects of sustainable rural development. Almost all of the district’s
    14,000 inhabitants depend on farming, but more than 70 percent of the
    land is no longer arable, after years of poor agricultural and
    irrigation practices during the Soviet era.

            Yet, UNDP says it has good news there, too:

    Seventy-five percent of the respondents reported that they were able to
    sell additional crops, with a 25 percent increase in income on average.
    The extra funds have gone into renovating family homes, hiring farm
    labour to expand production, repairing irrigation systems and sending
    children to school.

    Feeling Glum About Tajikistan? Here's a Nice Promotional Video

    From the Embassy of Tajikistan in the US. It has a nice American narrator with a mellow accent, despite that "Ta-JICK-istan" to rhyme with "ick" and will be broadcast on ABC News. The message is that with US investment and lots of mining, the region will become more stable and the relationship will grow stronger.


     

  • Who Hacked EurasiaNet’s Web Site?

    Hacks

    So the Soros-funded Central Asian news-and-views site Eurasianet.org (where I used to work) is down because it has been hacked.

    Or, as geeks always tell us with withering scorn, not "hacked," but merely subjected to a distributed denial-of-service (DDos) attack, which is sort of like "too much of a good thing" on the Internet with lots of page hits. Of course, hacking *is* defeating the legitimate purpose of any site, so it *is* hacking, and hacking *isn't* a word we should somehow "preserve" for "a better world". There isn't one.

    But why would EurasiaNet.org be hacked now?

    Well, one reason is just opportunistic hacking, zero-day attacks or DDOSes or other exploits just because during the Thanksgiving holiday, less staff are on duty and so on, and that can stretch into the next week, as the staff orders gadgets online on Cyber Monday.

    But it's already Wednesday, and the site has now been down for more than 20 hours, as the first announcement by the staff on Twitter was 20 hours ago as marked by the tweet.

    Study the twitter feed and the staff is saying they are "working on it".

    It's not just "down" with some kind of fail-while icon, but "down" and labelled by "the Internet" as a dangerous site — a site that if you keep clicking through the warnings, you may find will subject you yourself to a malware attack.

    To be sure, sometimes Google is being over-protective and such warnings are false — I've had them put on my mere blog on this commercial site merely because somebody doesn't like the content and then tries to subject me to a takedown by pretending I have "malware".

    And that is likely what has happened with EurasiaNet — so it is fairly sophisticated and opportunistic and may not be related to one single post but an overall desire to disrupt news.

    Indeed, there are lots of people who don't like this site (and I've discovered more of them since I left there) — on the US government side, there are disgruntled State Department flunkies and military advisors posted to these hell-holes who don't like the criticism focused on them when their host government are really the problem; then there are all those Central Asian governments themselves who are nasty as the day as long; then there are various factions fighting those nasty Central Asian governments who are sometimes even nastier themselves, like violent Islamist movements or nationalist dissidents with their creepy agendas for the minorities — and so on. Central Asia is a region where you are much more likely to get a hate email than a "like" on your Facebook page. The hate mail I've personally gotten from either Kyrgyz nationalists or Uzbek Islamist resistance groups are among the worst I've gotten in my life — except, of course, for mail from Serbia and Russia, usually leading the world in hate-mailing.

    The first question I'd always ask about a hack is "is it Russia?" That's because most hacking comes from Russia in the OSCE space; much of it is state-inspired or state-endorsed or state-tolerated, i.e. against Estonians, Georgians, etc.  Russians have the ill-will, the capacity, the legions of programmers with time on their hands, etc.

    But EurasiaNet tilts toward Russia decidedly, as not only Jennifer Rubin has written but others privately note who even still work there. It's party of that whole Soros/"progressive"/Center for American Progress take on Russia which is decidedly pro-Kremlin. Hey, the Socialist Scholars' Conference from 1984 called, they don't want their program back, however, as you already have a copy. But if it's fading on that old thermo-fax paper, they can give you a fresh digital version.

    With a story like this, EurasiaNet only illustrates the endless compassion they have for the Kremlin perspective:

    Russia Objects To NATO Missile Defense In Turkey: Russia has weighed in on ongoing discussions between Turkey and…

    So while I look first to see if there is a story that might have angered Russians, I also check for Uzbeks, who are among the nastiest in the region with a high capacity for harassment as the largest state and most powerful. So is it this?


    Uzbekistan Will Come Back Soon, CSTO Insists:
    Uzbekistan will come crawling back into the arms of Russia as soon as…

    Or that garden perennial about the lack of heat and the gas shortage which you could cut and paste from the last 25 winters?

    With the site down, we can't see the full version even in Google cache, but maybe that and some other negative stories on Uzbekistan means Uzbeks are a candidate.

    Let me tell you what story it's *not*: 

    On the Trail of Turkey's "KIng of Nuts": The pistachio may be the nut most people associate with Turkey, but in the…

    Another candidate for disgruntled-reader-of-the-week might be:

    Georgia's Arrests: Who’s Next?: If they were to bet on which high-ranking Georgian official goes to prison next…

    or

    Georgia: Will Ex-Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili Assist the Prosecution of "Bigger Fish"?: Georgian President….

    But…There's no question that the new Georgian leader has the backing of the Kremlin, and it's not clear yet just how far that backing will go. But here, again, Russia and the new Georgian leadership are not likely hacking commissioners here — EurasiaNet is harsh on Saakashvili and soft on the Kremlin-backed leader Ivanashvili, calling anyone in Congress slightly critical of Saakashvili as "Russophobes" although never dubbing themselves "Russophiles".

    I don't think it's going to be anything related to Kazakhstan — except for the critical reporting from Joanna Lillis, more often than not, we get these kind of stories that are either human-interest fluff or  "laugh-at-the-dictator" stories that wind up distracting from ongoing torture:


    Kazakhstan Photo: Black and White: Kids play chess
    with pieces several feet tall at the First President's Park in…

    It's not going to be the Tajiks, because the story of their blocking of Facebook is widely reported by sites with far more traffic than EurasiaNet.

    This might be a candidate for an axe-grinder:

    Kyrgyzstan: Local Voting Unsettles National Politics:   Kyrgyzstan, the closest thing Central Asia has to a working…

    Well, take a look yourself at the feed for the last two weeks and see if you can guess which story led to the hack. Most likely there isn't a story as such, but merely an opportunity. Oh, and gosh, it could never be Drupal, could it?! Dare we imagine that lovely "free" open-source software with endless part-time consultants to keep it functioning could be a greater threat than a nasty Central Asian regime?