• WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


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  • Will There Be Conflict in Central Asia After US Troop Withdrawal? Interview with Me in CA-News (English Original)

    Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) propaganda video. Comments on Youtube suggest they get some resistance from their compatriots.

    I was delighted to give an interview to CA-News, which is a Central Asian news online publication based in Bishkek associated with AKIpress.org  (in Russian).

    But because there are a half dozen or so mistakes in the translation that makes me sound like I'm saying the opposite of what I actually said [fortunately fixed within a day!], and because not everybody reads Russian, I'm reprinting the original Russian questions and my answers in English below. I've asked them to make the corrections. I don't mind, because this is an important independent publication and I support its mission. I think they do a good job.

    I'm not sure how they came to ask me, a person who is not a formal expert on the region, for such an extensive interview, but they did, perhaps in search of independent analysis.

    Although I've spent a career of 35 years in this field where I have travelled extensively throughout Eurasia, and lived and worked in Russia and travelled frequently to Russia, Belarus, Poland in particular for OSCE, I have never been to a single Central Asian country. I worked in the Central Eurasian Program at OSI for six years without such a boon. It's not for any lack of desire; it just so happened that at different times when I was actually invited to go to Kyrgzystan when I worked with various human rights groups, or Kazakhstan when I was a public member at the OSCE, it simply happened that I couldn't go. I doubt I could get a visa to Turkmenistan, having written critically about it for OSI for six years, or Uzbekistan, where I also wrote critically for two years — and of course before that, I edited two weeklies for RFE/RL and other publications for many years.

    Even so, I study the regional Russian-language and English-language press very carefully, go to all the conferences I can, and interview people directly either when they visit the US, or when I see them at international conferences or over email and Skype. That's certainly not a substitute for a personal visit, where you can get the feel of things and have many important one-on-one conversations. But in lack of direct exposure on my skin of the winds of Central Asia, I'm no different than most pundits who have either never been there, or have been there only infrequently, and don't even speak any regional languages.

    I do think there's an advantage to having a critical independent view of this critical region. I think those not in formal structures can speak out more loudly about the corrosive effect on human rights that the US and Europe have had; the ongoing pernicious role that Russia plays; and the troublesome future of Chinese domination — not to mention the ways in which the oppressive autocratic regimes play these factors off against each other to keep themselves in power and their people miserable.

    You have nothing to lose if your job does not depend on some certain perspective. I find that the status quo in the human rights movement is to minimize the threat of terror or unrest and play up the awfulness of the regimes. That's a whitewash, given the groups in the region that have many, many more thousands of adherents that Western-style human rights groups — like Hizb-ut-Tahir.

    As for Washington, I find that far from there being the "neo con" belief that a) there is rampant terrorism and a horrible threat of Islamization and/or b) some imminent "Arab Spring" coming, there is actually nothing of the sort. Oh, there's that one paper at Jamestown Foundation or something, but that's it.

    That is, those on the left, the "progressives" and the "RealPolitik" adherents constantly pontificate as if there were some horrid neo-cons or hawks or conservatives saying these things, but in fact these groups, which have dwindling influence in any event, either are following RealPolitik themselves or don't even care at all about this region (mainly the latter).

    So in my view, there is this whole fake industry of anti-anti commentary, which runs like this:

    "There isn't any Islamic threat at all in this region, perish the thought, it's just a poor region with dictators who in fact go overboard suppressing legitimate Muslim activity"

    "There's no Muslim fervour in fact, these states are Sovietized and secularized".

    "Nothing is going to happen when troops leave, it is all wildly exaggerated and people who say that seem not to realize that the US troops are the conflict generator, not the IMU"

    "Russia has little influence any more in this region; it has less gas extraction, it has less money, it has length troop strength and its efforts to make a Warsaw Pact — the CSTO — or a Soviet Re-Union with a customs union have mainly failed."

    And so on.

    While each one of those statements can be true up to a point, they also lead to this strange endorsement of the status quo in these regions that in fact ends up serving the regimes, in my view.

    Russia's influence is considerable, and it has been behind unrest by its action (as it was in Bakiyev's ouster and its threats to Atambayev) or inaction (with the pogroms in Osh). The remittance economies are huge — for the labour migrants from Tajikistan in particular, but increasingly Uzbekistan and even Turkmenistan. That means that Russia winds up dominating the lives of these countries through some of their most vulnerable citizens — not just the mainly male workers but the females left back home as head of households with children. The Russian language did not disappear from this region, even if it is taught less, because dominating Russian mainstream media, and Russian-controlled social media like mail.ru and Vkontakte, are very big factors in the media space in this region.

    As for terrorism, sure, it gets exaggerated and the regimes "do it to themselves". But there are also real terrorist acts that occur. There is a sense that the presence of US troops in Afghanistan has ensured a kind of "frozen conflict" in this region that isn't on the official list of the frozen conflicts. The IMU has been tied up mainly fighting NATO troops. So when they go away, then what? Where do they go, those 5000 or 8000 or however many fighters there are? (And probably there are analysts saying they are only 2000, but who really knows, what, you did a door-to-door survey, guys?) Will they peacefully melt back into the countryside and farm happily? Or what? I think it's okay to look at that question critically without being branded as a terrorism hysteric.

    Ditto the question of "Arab Spring". No one thinks there is any Arab Spring coming to Central Asia. I don't know of a single pundit or analyst saying this. Yet again, there is the "anti-anti-" industry making this claim, mainly from the Registan gang. The problem is that when you adopt that scornful skepticism, you stop seeing reality when it appears. As Paul Goble put it, there is a way in which talking about the Arab Spring is a little spring in itself. And there are signs of unrest here and there, and you don't know how they will turn out.

    Remember, the same gang at Registan — Sarah Kendzior and Katy Pearce — were predicting with firm determination that discussion of oppression on the Internet was causing a chill in use, a decline in use, and even the shuttering of popular discussion pages. They implied that there would never be any Twitter revolution in Azerbaijan, that it was going to be slow and incremental and we shouldn't artificially speed it up by over-amplifying human rights cases.

    Yet thousands of people keep demonstrating in Azerbaijan despite the news of repression, and they keep using Internet tools to make their case — tools that Pearce is now blithely measuring with machinopology as if she had never written that Internet use would be chilled by such expression. It hasn't been. Facebook membership boomed. Will this "spring" last forever? I truly doubt it. Not with potential European and American oil interests — and actually existing Russian and Iranian oil interests — in this mix. Everybody will blame the West for the crackdown in Azerbaijan that is likely to be inevitable and thorough, and fume at the regime-tropic USAID grantees that they ignored last year (or even cooperated with) as the smoking gun of American perfidy.  But it will be Russia's money and military role that will be the bigger factor.

    This is how I'm seeing it, in the end: To the extent Russian wants or needs conflict, or is weakened and can't efficiently prevent or manage conflict, there will be conflict in Central Asia after NATO troops are withdrawn.

    Part of that resistance to Russian state intrusion will be Islamic ferment. If analysts were busy telling everyone these were secular Soviet states and Arab Spring can't happen, they will be uncomfortably confronted with the reality that Islam is a great organizing tool in countries where it has historic roots, and this need not be seen as a threat to the West. Yet because they've been engaged in such an industry telling us it's not a threat to the West, they will be embarrassed when in fact it will be — as they emblematically were when the Egyptian woman activist just feted at the State Department turned out to be such an anti-American hater, 9/11 celebrator, and horrid anti-semite on Twitter, and not because she was hacked — a fiction State had to indulge in to save face.

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  • Will Unrest Break Out in Central Asia or the Caucasus?

    Turkmens on Flag Day
    Turkmens performing in state-orchestrated parade on Flag Day in Ashgabat. Photo by Golden Age, State News Agency of Turkmenistan.

    No.

    At least, not right now, and probably not next week.

    Oh, there might be another wave of pogroms as there was in Osh in Kyrgyzstan in June 2010 where hundreds of people were killed, mainly Uzbeks, and thousands displaced, but it might be in some other setting, not Kyrgyzstan's south, but who knows, maybe Tajikistan, as police shoot-outs of suspected terrorists have occurred regularly there since the civil war was over.

    Or there might be another massacre of workers as there were in Zhanaozen, Kazakhstan in 2011, but probably not that again, and not there.

    That's just it — whenever unrest does break out, whether in Andijan in 2005 in Uzbekistan, where hundreds were massacred or in Osh as I mentioned in 2010, the authorities make sure it is tamped down very well after that, making numerous arrests, silencing or jailing journalists and bloggers and citizen reporters. So that's that, we get it.

    Except, we don't. Because unrest does occur, sometimes with large numbers of people, and it surprises those who aren't prepared. Like the overthrow of Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan in 2012, which shows signs of Russian engineering, but which couldn't have succeeded if there hadn't been underlying social disatisfaction with energy price hikes (induced by Russia) and other deeper and long-term economic and social malaise.

    Nobody was ready when 20,000 or even 60,000 people came out on the main squares of Moscow and other Russian cities after Putin's orchestrated re-election, and nobody who got enthusiastic about the prospects then was ready for the severity of the crackdown that is now inevitably coming.

    So yeah, unrest, but they tamp it down but then, they don't. So you have to be ready, and you have to have some theory about how society changes in these countries — and that would not be "due to Internet penetration" or "development of the middle class" — the mantras rehearsed by State Department officials and pundits worldwide. If only Internet saturation reaches X point that it reached in, oh, Iran or Azerbaijan (where unrest is reaching the thousands now in demonstration), why we might see those droids we're looking for.

    But oh, remember This is What Can Happen To You, when Katy Pearce and Sarah Kendzior said about Azerbaijan that publicizing the news of the crackdown on Internet bloggers would chill the use of the Internet? Make people not want to go online or be very careful about their activities online? Remember how I was browbeaten to death for daring to suggest there was an Internet surge in Uzbekistan? But I countered this and said it was an Internet campaign that got the "donkey bloggers" released and I countered their theories of the efficacy of "networked authoritiarianism" (Rebeccah McKinnon's term) here and here (Is There an Arab Spring Bounce in Azerbaijan?) and then here for Central Asia. That is, I don't have ANY illusions that any Twitter revos are coming soon to these countries to utterly turn them over from head to foot, but I do ask: Why Can't We Say Azerbaijani Protest is Influenced by the Arab Spring and Social Media? Of course you can, and you don't need me to say this, you now have the released Emin Milli on the conference circuit to say it.

    So last week, we were told at the OSCE Internet 2013 conference by Milli, the former political prisoner and blogger who just served 15 days in jail for his chronicling of demonstrations over the death of a soldier in the army, that there are one million sign-ups on Facebook. That's a lot of people for this small country. Socialbakers, the industry source on Facebook sign-ups, says there are more than a million now.

    Says Socialbakers:

    Our social networking statistics show that Facebook penetration in Azerbaijan
    is 12.20% compared to the
    country's population and 23.97% in relation
    to number of Internet users. The total number of FB users in Azerbaijan
    is reaching 1013080 and grew by more than
    147280 in the last 6 months

    Internet penetration was reported as 44% in 2010 by the ITU; then it was reported last year as 68% and is growing. So it's a lot, and people who say that Azeris are scared off the Internet by oppression were wrong, but people who say that such large percentages of Internet penetration will lead to revolution are also wrong, as the authorities are still very skillful in picking out people to coopt, intimidate or jail and torture as needed to keep the peace — especially for those Western oil and gas companies coming in to develop the Shah Deniz II fields.

    The number of people on the square in Azerbaijan isn't one million and isn't 28,000 but more like 2,000 or 200 sometimes, depending on the topic.

    Now, Central Asia is much, much more "backward" or behind when it comes to the Internet, let alone Facebook, and has not had the kind of "Youtube protests" about local official corruption that then leads to street demonstrations — although the phenomenon still can be found here and there even in these countries.

    So you have to be ready, as these things can jump the synapse — significant unrest/revolution/unheavals in Azerbaijan would obviously affect other neighbouring countries and so on.

    Even so, we're been getting for years now articles that tell us not to worry, everything is boringly stable in Central Asia, and implying that anyone who crafts any other scenario is just hopelessly mired in Twitter mania and Jeff Jarvis-style over-romanticization of social media's power (that would not be me) or just not "getting it" about the Arab Spring, which didn't turn  out to be "all that" in the end as we well know (and this article, Aftermath of a Revolution, in the International Herald Tribune really sums it up well).

    Even so, along comes Sarah Kendzior to tell us that everything is boringly stable: The Curse of Stability. Kendzior, who, together with Katy Pearce, in an article they'd probably like to forget now, told us how cautious we must all be about Azerbaijan (and the big crackdown and big sleep could be still coming there anyway as well all know, but each time the concentric circles grow).

    This article was kind of written already on Kendzior's political home base, Registan.net, by Myles Smith: Central Asia: What Not to Look For, datelined January 2013.

    Kendzior doesn't link to her colleague but should have, as he put down the markers for the prediction businesss, and I couldn't disagree, although as I said, you really need to have better theories of change and a more hopeful expectation about the people in these countries and their need to have a better life than they do under their current dictatorships.

    I could answer Kendzior in detail but then, I already have in the past, and did on another article exactly a year ago by another specialist, Scott, Radnitz, Waiting for Spring, who told us "not to hold our breaths" and compare Central Asia to the Arab Spring — and it's a good thing we didn't, as we'd be as blue as a UN peacekeeper's helmet now.

    Even so, I'll just cut and paste below the fold what I put in the comments to Radnitz's peace again, because it still applies. And keep in mind that what the Arab Spring had was Al Jazeera (not WikiLeaks or Anonymous, silly, that's just self-serving hacker twaddle). Central Asia doesn't have that; it has Russian TV. So, you get what you get, even if you add Facebook.

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  • The Fundamental Fallacies of Katy Pearce’s Machinopology in Azerbaijan

    January 14 2012 youth protest in Baku by Obyektiv TV.

    The other day a colleague sent me a link to a social graph that he said was "fascinating" — it was about the protests in Azerbaijan.

    It turned out to be made by anthropologist Katy Pearce but I couldn't see her name in my view of the screen — it was only visible later when I returned for a closer look and scrolled down — but of course, visible to anyone who clicked on the link and took an interest.

    Here's what it said (go to the link and keep reading for the full jargon-laden experience):

    The graph represents a network of up to 1500 Twitter users whose recent
    tweets contained "#protestbaku". The network was obtained on Monday, 14
    January 2013 at 23:01 UTC. There is an edge for each follows
    relationship. There is an edge for each "replies-to" relationship in a
    tweet. There is an edge for each "mentions" relationship in a tweet.
    There is a self-loop edge for each tweet that is not a "replies-to" or
    "mentions". The tweets were made over the 2-day, 6-hour, 37-minute
    period from Saturday, 12 January 2013 at 15:36 UTC to Monday, 14 January
    2013 at 22:13 UTC.

    What, you didn't get the wind-chill factor or the latitude and longitude on Google maps? This report is the sort of high-falutin essential nonsense that passes for scholarship in our day, and I'm going to be ruthless with it. I've decided to call this field of study "machinopology" instead of "anthropology" because I think that not only have these social scientists ceased to study real human beings; when they study their spoor left on the Internet — not a good substitute — they become fierce apologists for this decidedly inaccurate and misleading means of studying people and you can't speak sense to them.

    THE "SCIENCE" OF HASHTAG DIKTAT

    In gathering this data, Pearce was heedless about what has been called the Niels Bohr effect — that the scientist himself intrudes on his data by the very act of study and is studying his study, so to speak. Pearce first goosed her contacts on Twitter to come up with a hashtag, then pushed them toward used of a standardized one, #protestbaku — policing with fierce hostility anyone who didn't keep to the meaning of the hashtag as she saw it (typical of the Twitter hashtag Nazis).  There may have been very rich and rewarding conversations on Twitter on January 14; but if they didn't have Katy Pearce's hashtag, they are like a tree falling in the proverbial forrest…

    In fact, Pearce was such a "scientist," that she even got into an epic Twit fight and started to mouth off to some of the people who appeared to be "pro-government" tweeters — who maybe just didn't seem to agree with Katy and her source-friends. She even yells at this woman to "stay off their hashtag" –– not just because she cared about the integrity of meaning, but because it would have screwed up her results if the meaning wasn't uniform. (If you don't understand the meaning of hashtags, email me, I've been on Twitter since 2007).

    Katy Twit Fight

    Imagine, pretending you are an impartial anthropologist, and telling anybody in the field — even a regime tool (which we can't be sure this person really is, simply because they disagree with the way the soldier's death should have been handled) — to "go home, turn off your phone/computer, watch a movie, and leave these people alone". Does she think she's talking to her toddler here?! This is just outrageous stuff — but it passes as "cool" because it's machinopology and not anthropology — and anything goes.

    BACK STORY

    Anyway, I use Twitter as a kind of "Delicious" if "Delicio.us" had ever been functional and useful. That is, I park links for myself there to catch up on later and figure I can also share them at the same time if anyone else has anything to say about them. I often go back to my own stream to find things — for me, re-tweet often does mean endorsement and I don't shirk from that association, but it also can merely mean "parked here to read later, looks interesting" or "read this, want to file it". I wrote on my tweet about the social graph an "h/t" to this colleague because that's what you do when someone else tells you something you didn't know — you acknowledge their reference. No big deal — but then I saw a rare response from Katy Pearce, the anthropologist who feels she owns this field of Internet studies in the Caucasus.

    Her remark was puzzling to me because she said "thank you" — although I'm an enemy to her (she denounced me a year ago to my then-boss!) and then said she helped with a blog post. Not realizing what she was going on about, I called he out for her unsavoury role in joining up with Sarah Kendzior after I challenged the Registan diktat last year, and going to denounce me as somehow "unfit" to my editor at EurasiaNet because I…dared to stand up to Joshua Foust in a completely legitimate and much-needed manner, and because I refused to be bullied by these gals online.

    I was particularly appalled at Pearce at the time — I published  a perfectly ordinary and fine little blurb about the surge of Facebook membership in Uzbekistan, citing Socialbakers; I cautioned that it had to be seen in relative terms due to the harassment there, but she blasted me as using shoddy research. It was insane — over a blog blurb, and on Twitter.  She herself later was found using Socialbakers, which is perfectly fine. She was doing this just to troll, as they say — it was sinister.

    So ever since stumbling on these academics and defense contractors on Registan, I've challenged them as a group that is a funny amalgam of seeming criticism of the US yet reverence for US policies such as on drones, and seeming criticism of the regimes of Central Asia — but always within limits and always with disparaging the opposition, particularly in exile, and the human rights movements along the way.

    It turned out Pearce was kvetching at me because she believed that "h/t"
    should go not to the person who tipped me off to the link, but to her,
    as designer of this graph. I simply didn't know it was made by her at
    first, and no "impropriety" was intended; that she had to cross the
    Internet to police this and make a snide comment lets you know how
    HUGELY controlling she is — so much so that those who once criticized
    her or Kendzior publicly are now beaten into silence — it's a scary
    thing to watch. Academe is a frightful place. In a world where
    attribution is one click away when you link, it's hard to posit ill will
    or damage.

    REALISM UBER ALLES

    Thus, while I'm not in academia myself and not an Internet or official regional expert, I've had a long period of closely reading what Katy Pearce and Sarah Kendzior produce for the academic world, and have grown to be a very stringent critic as you can see in past entries of this blog under the topic "Registan": their thesis is designed to minimize and disparage dissenters; celebrate those who are more cerebral and incremental and less active; caution against publishing too much negative human rights material on the Internet so it doesn't scare off lolcat posters; and then essentially do the government's work for it — making sure that the Internet is something that grows on the conditions and timetables and in the manner that these New Realist academics wish instead of people who use it for protest and not only communications. If you think this is a caricature of their studies, go and read them and judge for yourself. I think you will come away very disturbed if you care about democracy and human rights. They are part of the New Realists school of Joshua Foust, Nathan Hamm and others at Registan and they work overtime to belittle, discourage, disparage, intimidate and bully people in the human rights movement who disagree with their RealPolitik regarding the post-Soviet countries.

    Time and again, in article or op-ed or longer monograph or journal piece, I've seen their theses "prove" the same points: a) the governments of Central Asia are all-powerful and will never change; b) no Arab Spring will ever occur here; c) there is no civil society here and only 2 1/2 old Soviet-style dissidents who have no following; d) people inform on each other and hate each other and are spiteful so it is not a milieu in which a social movement can get started; e) repression is very severe and even deadly.

    It's not as if any of these things are untrue in a sense, but it's their culmination and their vectors that lead you to wonder what on earth they are up to here: they seem to see it as their job to discourage any challenge to these governments by using the homeopathic method — only they get to challenge them — a little, in the way they wish, but not too much.

    That's actually why it's so strange Registan is having a conference this week to discuss the passing of Karimov — it must be that they either feel this is a "safe" topic now or the defense contracting circles in which they travel find it useful to do a little scarifying of Karimov now. I've called Registan the "small game" before and that about sizes it up — it's about some sort of power trip, but it's just not clear whose, entirely.

    SHINY NEW COOL INTERNET THINGWHICH WE HAD 12 YEARS AGO

    The social graph that at first so fascinated me and others is a case in point for the kind of study of the post-Soviet countries that I simply find suspect — suspect because it leads to conclusions and influences policy in such a way as to get those in power in our government or wealthy foundations or universities to stop taking the opposition seriously and to discount human rights work as marginal. Any objection to their New Realism is met with withering scorn that you are a Neo-Con and hopelessly mired with Commentary and Jennifer Rubin. There's no in-between for these people. ANY criticism gets the "Neo-Con" slur.

    So…At first glance the social graph seems really cool! Who wouldn't like a cool Internet thing like this! As it happens, I first saw a social graph like this in The Sims Online in the year 2000, made by Will Wright. He had developed a program to capture in that simulated virtual world a way of showing relationships to people — every time you gave a balloon to someone as an avatar, or even just interacted with them, that person would become your "friend"; if you slapped them, they would become your "enemy", and these "balloons" would then show as green or red in an elaborate graph accessible above every avatar's head on his profile. People spent hours pouring over these balloon graphs — they were fascinating. You could acquire a "balloon" merely by going to a simulator or a place on the server and being in proximity to other people — many a sim-hubbie would catch his sim-wifey cheating by reading her balloons. You could also see who wasn't letting their relationships "stay green" — the more interactions you had with a person, the higher and brighter your relationship would show. The capturing of relationships by machine was something that fascinated Will Wright, maker of the Sims and now on the board of Linden Lab, maker of Second Life.

    People don't take these virtual worlds seriously, thinking them as pathetic sexting chat rooms and furry enclaves,  but I have followed them for their interesting sociology for more than a decade because I see them as petri dishes, simulators and testing grounds for the means and methods of social media and social networks on the wider Internet. Time and again, I have seen things prototyped, or played out in Second Life, that then appear in the real world, almost as if it had uncanny predictive powers — events like WikiLeaks or the Instagram scandal — all these have played out in these worlds first.

    Another thing that Will Wright did was show — because he could, possessing control of a virtual world in which every person's speech and actions could be captured by the machine — what people were doing or saying. So he could take snapshots or make dynamic pictures — X percent were kissing or X percent were going to the toilet as you can do in the Sims — and X percent were saying the words "love".

    So it's not surprising to me that now people use Twitter — and all the gestures, as they are called ("likes", links, comments, replies, retweets, etc. etc. ) — to track social relationship.

    MACHINES ARE NOT PEOPLE

    The problems is that machines are far from perfect in replicating organic human relationships — replicating their ways and means online in social networks can be disastrous — and the scientists studying this and pretending that it enhances anthropology don't seem to take into account the fundamental fallacies of their science, making it a pseudo-science.

    I realize just how cool it is to have charts and graphs and fancy jargonistic words like edges and vertices. We have seen this in Second Life for years and it's old news for some of us. But it has to be thoroughly questioned, as it is laying now — in its still-primitive state — the grounds for the totalitarian Wired State, and it has to be challenged before our freedoms are eradicated. It's not just study; it's study with an aim to control society by letting certain elites drill and analyze the data and then use it to shape online experience — where we all increasingly live. The most obvious exploitation of this data was in the recent elections, where sociologists were put to work for the Obama Truth Team to manipulate stories to attract voters.

    THREE FALLACIES OF MACHINOPOLOGY

    But there are deep fallacies in these machine-readings of people, and they need to be called out

    Here are three main fallacies right off the bat in this artifact:

    1. We can't be sure that retweets equal political affiliation. We are told ad nauseum especially by the Registani types on Twitter that "retweet ≠ endorsement" — they love using the geeky ≠ which means "does not equal" but which isn't always instantly recognizeable as such to the average person.  Of course, people usually lie when they say this, and are merely covering their asses, especially at jobs. Of course their retweets are endorsement. Especially when they retweet each other and bolster their friends. They're just saying that but we know better.

    The assumption of Katy Pearce's graph here is indeed that retweet DOES mean endosement because she uses it to group people into political affiliation. She even says that pro-government forces are known for using certain words like "yolo". Of course, "yolo" is what the kids say on Tumblr or Facebook, "you only live once". It's very popular now among teens here in New York, especially Hispanic teens although it isn't a Hispanic word, it just sounds like one. There may be an insider's piece of esoteric knowledge here, where pro-government forces in Azerbaijan have already been established as always saying "yolo" like hipsters in New York, but I am out of the loop so I'll have to say that it needs questioning.

    We can't be sure that every person who retweets dissenters' links or retweets government links are on the same page as those forces. Maybe they are only bookmarking. Maybe they are making a cover story but disagree. The fact is, you can't have it both ways. You can't, as academics CYAing on Twitter yourself and telling us "≠" on all retweets, yet in your shiny social graph studying a country's demonstration, suddenly then group everybody's tweets in a certain political framework as if retweets *do* equal endorsement. Which is it? Or at least admit that it's sometimes one, and sometimes the other, and you don't have a basis for grouping people rigidly in this fashion.

    2. Many accounts, especially pro-government accounts, could be fake or bots. As one of the Azerbaijani tweeters noted, there are a lot of fake accounts made by the government. For all we know, there's a few guys sitting in the basement of the secret police and manufacturing all these personas. Or maybe some loyalists who spontaneously on their own do this, although the former scenario is more likely. There could be hundreds — thousands of them — and they could be set up by scripts or bots to behave even realistically.

    The Anonymous types always grouse about the US military and its "persona" projects, which is used only overseas to do things like debate on Al Qaeda's web pages; they are not supposed to engage in propaganda at home, which is known as "blowback". But Anonymous itself wrote the book on persona craft, and do it themselves all over, everywhere, in spades, and were the first to cause destruction everywhere with it, corrupting the entire online environment. And the descendents of the Bolsheviks and the KGB, who were masters at making doubles and disguises, have no problem in moving this skill online. Again: they can sound very realistic but could be fake or even bots. The Flatter Bots in Second Life that go around appearing as suave men and women and flatter people's outfits and then eventually get them to give them money have had amazing success earning the bot wrangler tens of thousands of real dollars. Artificial intelligence and online persona work is really getting good. Turing would be proud.

    3. Relationship lines may not mean anything. One of the first things we discovered with Will Wright's experiments 10-12 years ago, and then Philip Rosedale's experiments in Second Life in the last 5-7 years, is that when machines grab and aggregate and render relationship lines from chat and various other social gestures, they can be woefully inaccurate or outright wrong. I already mentioned the "balloons" in the Sims that caused couples to break up — someone could teleport to a sim by accident, or due to a spam invitation; they would acquire a seeming "relationship" by appearing in proximity to someone, but it would mean nothing. In Second Life, when someone invented two-way wrist watches (hmmm) to show who was near you and beam that information up to a webpage for display, people howled and screamed because they felt it was an invasion of privacy.

    It was. Unscrupulous and unethical hackers said it was open data so they could get to scrape it and use it. Technically it was, although no one who had chosen to make a public profile with their static data linked to their name and their list of favourite places or comments had ALSO granted permission for real-time display of their proximity data.

    GIRLS NEAR ME DO NOT WANT TO BE NEAR YOU

    It's like what happened then five years later — just last year — with Girls Near Me. That app was widely popular with boys — they grabbed open FB data about girls with geolocation and used it to stalk them for dates. The girls did not like this because they hadn't put up FB pages to be accessed by creepy guys in bars with smart phones; maybe they didn't know how to fix their privacy sliders. This is a case where users screaming enough finally overwhelmed geekitude, and the ap was removed. People HATE HATE HATE having proximity data even if "open" displayed to the web; they HATE HATE HATE others — scientists and marketers — making judgements about it. Anthropologists are not supposed to do experiments or gather information on people without their consent. Did the people in the graph given their consent to be shown this way? Of course not.

    But it's not only about privacy; it's about ridicularity. As one woman put it very aptly about the newfangled search thing that Facebook put up the other day: "Hey, is this thing going to make it so that FB stops offering my husband's ex-wife as a friend?"

    Bingo. That's proximity data handled by machines in Machinopology which is a very poor substitute for anthropology — which itself isn't always in ethical and skilled hands online or in real life these days.

    I find that FB is uncanny in chosing just those people who are sworn enemies and serving them up to me over and over again as "friend" prospects; Linked-in is the absolute worst at this. It really is annoying and drives you away from the service. Of course "it can't know" and you wouldn't want "it" to know — and it is supposed to "get smarter" by having you X out the offer. But you don'to want it to get THAT smart…do you?

    MY FAVOURITE LINK TO HATE

    So if I answer somebody's tweet; if I retweet them, if I even favourite them, it means nothing. One of the most common gestures I see online is when Anonymous "favourites" something critical I've said about them — they don't mean that they like this; in fact, they hate it. They've favourited it merely to keep it parked and accessible so they can organize attacks on me among their contacts. I've seen this played out with others as well. Most things are not what they seem online; much of the time, they are just the opposite.

    How many of those using #protestbaku were secret policemen; how many were hipsters; how many wanted to prove to Western grant-giving foundations that they were active? We may never know.

    HOW SAFE ARE SOCIAL GRAPHS?

    This brings me to the issue of privacy and the usage of these graphs. This first thing I noticed when I clicked on this thing — after the initial "ooh, ahh, shiny" that anyone will make at seeing all the protesters of Azerbaijan laid out in a nice "map" — was that the people in this nexus might not like being shown this way. Somebody casually firing off a tweet on their iPhone may not realize that a social scientist has now captured them and fixed them like a fly in amber as talking to a notorious opposition leader; now through a sinewy wire on a jpeg that is easily copied, they are forever not alone.

    And that must be why you can't see this picture clearly. No matter how much you click or resize, the names actually don't show up. Only Katy Pearce and her fellow "scientists' can see this information.

    This could be a function of my browser (Firefox); of the need to register for the site (I didn't) or some other artifact, but the fact is: I cannot click on it on various computers and on the iPhone and see anything, and others likely have that experience to.

    So this Internet shiny dines out on being part of the "open" Internet and "accessible" and "free" but…you actually can't see it. If you *could* see it, you might start reality-testing it. You'd click on some of the big nodes — people with larger and familiar pictures — and see if those people linking in were really friends or enemies; casual or dedicated — you might judge it.

    But you can't do that: it is not clickable to a bigger size to really study. And I'm actually fine with that, given that this is Azerbaijan we're talking about — that thing is an indictment! But there's something slimy about sending it all over the web to be gawked at, but not really seen. It's elitist and controlling. I think it's wrong. You could start from the premise that anyone with an open Twitter account in a sense "consents" to being seen and having their data known. But as we saw with Second Life and Girls Near Me, what people HATE HATE HATE is when their *proximity data* is shown. And that's what this does — more than standing next to someone at a demonstration, it shows who was connected enough to share an idea, a link, etc. And that is risky. I think this has to be debated; it isn't being debated. Machinopologists — the term I think is apt for people who have replaced the study of humans directly with the study of machine-gathered data about humans *and* are fierce apologists for this method — think everything is up for grabs; they are greedy.

    DISPARAGING THE DIASPORA

    I also want to say something about the groupings. Katy Pearce, like Ethan Zuckerman before her, and others of like mind, seems to disparage the diaspora. This group is least interesting to her and if it is larger she discounts it. These are people not in the country, and almost then "disqualified" from study. There's a loathing of the diaspora among the New Realists because they tend not to be very realistic about their homelands; they are "in the way" of making that OstPolitik that the NRs want to achieve.

    But I think this is hugely shortsighted. The diaspora is the living link to the closed society; it is the best thing we've got. Social media, the study of the social graph and the social gestures online are no substitute for these living human beings. Lots of people come and go from the diaspora, or receive family and friends as visitors who come and go. It's a rich milieu and it should never be discounted. If a few very vocal opposition leaders in exile seem to set the tone, well, look past that; there is a lot more there. Twitter, Facebook, Live Journal — these are the living ways these connections are kept up these days, and the diaspora handling of them is vital — it simply shouldn't be disparaged as somehow irrelevant or "not a Twitter revolution". The diaspora is what helps bring awareness to Western countries as well (and the rest of the world, for that matter, but the West cares the most).

    LIKE BIRDS NOT ON A WIRE

    So that leaves the core of the people actually in the country, using Twitter for logistics, and tweeting with a geolocation of Baku itself (and as we know from the time when everyone switched their Twitter to say they were in Iran to try to confuse the secret police, this could be misleading as well).

    One of my most vivid memories in monitoring human rights in Eurasia in the last 35 years is a scene I saw in Baku in the early 2000s — perhaps 10 years ago or so. There was a large street demonstration organized by opposition parties and groups. It was all men — women were seldom seen on the street. They all had cell phones and used them to coordinate their movements and get information about police movements and arrests and the route of their march.

    Suddenly, the government shut off all the cell phones — they can do that in a country where the mobile companies are under their control. Everyone on the square suddenly got disconnected. None of them could talk to each other and they were all confused and worried now, and couldn't figure out what was going on. That's how the government wanted them. It was like a flock of birds, suddenly flying into some poisonous air or something. They all stopped or jerked around and began meandering off in odd directions.

    I've seen the authorities do the same thing in Minsk.

    So the social graph is fragile; it is risky to establish it, but it isn't *so* fragile and *so* risky that people don't make it and use it.

    And of course opinions change, groups form and reform, affiliations break and rejoin — and these kinds of graphs are ephemera and really of limited value. There is no substitute for talking to people live in real life.

    WHY CAN'T YOU JUST INTERVIEW PEOPLE IN REAL LIFE?

    One of the critiques I had of another study done by Pearce and Kendzior is that they outsourced their field world. That is, while no doubt they've done interviews in the field, and talk to people online or when they visit the US, and while they do go to these countries occasionally, they tend to write articles and studies without going there for significant periods of time. And they literally outsourced their questions on one survey about the Internet and attitudes towards risk and critical information to some USAID type entity that was making a survey *anyway* already in country, and simply tucked in a few questions on the subject of Pearce and Kendzior's study into their own large and baggy effort.

    I found the redaction of the questions odd; I found the whole thing just unsound. Why can't you go there and do your own surveys, even with less samples? Maybe it's too hard to get a visa and function in the country? Well, then let's not pretend we're studying a closed society just because we have a newfangled "open Internet". The two don't necessarily mesh.

    There's more that could be said about the personalities involved in Azerbaijan; about the issue itself; about the things that motivate people to demonstrate. There was a strange locution that Katy Pearce was happy to pick up and rebroadcast: "this isn't a political demonstration". Nonsense. of course it's political. Every demonstration is political. And there's nothing wrong with being political and demonstrating. It's as if the hipsters of Baku want to be post-political as some strategy to save their skin. This won't work. And it denegrates others who are demonstrably political. Again, it's okay to be political; just because a demonstration wasn't on the platform of a political party or with political party leaders speaking or whatever the criteria was, doesn't mean it isn't highly political — which AGAIN is ok to be! You sense that for Pearce, it's wrong to be political because that means challenging the government in unrealistic ways….That won't do if you are a New Realist.

    I wish people would criticize these things more.

  • Tajik Opticon #5

    Prokudin-Gorsky Small

    1907 Solar Eclipse Expedition by Sergei Prokhudi-Gorskii, Russian Photographer in Central Asia.

    This is my little newsletter on Tajikistan that comes out once a
    week on Saturdays. If you want to see past issues, look to the column on
    the right down below for the key word "Tajikistan". If you want to get this in
    your email or you have comments or contributions, write
    [email protected]


    o One Step Forward (Facebook Re-Opened), Two Steps Backward (Twitter, Russian Sites Closed)

    o Could You Ever Turn an Anodyne Development Job in Dushanbe into Anything Real?

    o Will Tajikistan Really Become Like Yemen, Guys?

     COMMENTS:

    Oh, geez, didn't we just all laugh at the Tajik minister of communications and get Facebook opened up again with the help of the US ambassador?! And now Twitter is down and all the Russian social network sites!

    Yes, this is terrible. Most likely it will end in two days. Or maybe 7 days. It's not like Russian troops in Tajikistan are going to get those sites right back up, any more than whatever US military are in Tajikistan got Facebook working again but…Russian troops need those sites, too, so it's not over yet. It's more about which providers are hooked up to which members of the Family in charge of the whole country, and what's in it for them. Watch this space.

    Also I think the head of the Internet Service Providers Association, which is independent but subject to governmental directives, got it about right — it's not about perfidious US envoys who care only about their own California corporations or Russian indifference to their own business people, as @etajikistan was implying last week; it's more about the Tajik elections in a year. Every single resource available, administrative or otherwise, will be deployed in keeping the same set in power.

    We all worry about how Tajikistan will develop, especially when foreign NGOs are increasingly blocked, social media is blocked, and domestic NGOs defunded or de-legitimized. How will these groups survive?

    TAJIKISTAN SHUTS DOWN TWITTER AND OTHER SOCIAL NETWORKS

    Tajikistan has ordered local Internet providers to block Twitter, one of more than 100 sites including popular Russian-language social networks starting next week, an industry representative told AFP Saturday.

    "The (government) communications service has sent Internet companies a huge list of 131 sites that must be blocked in the country from Monday," said Asomiddin Atoyev, the head of the Tajik association of Internet providers.

    So while access to Facebook was opened up last week, now Russian sites are being blocked:  Vkontakte [In Touch], Odnoklassniki [Classmates], the most popular social networking sites in Russia with many users in the ex-Soviet Union, and Mail.ru, an email service.

    The head of the Internet Service Providers provides an explanation:

    "The next presidential elections will be held in Tajikistan in November 2013, and this will bring even more harsh control of Internet resources and independent media," predicted the head of the National Association of Independent Media of Tajikistan, Nuriddin Karshiboyev.

    MISSING YOUR SOCIAL MEDIA FIX? TAJKINO HAS DVDS FOR YOU

    Just in time for the holidays, Tajikkino has released a DVD box set collection of documentaries on Emomali Rahmon's activities as Tajikistan's president during the last 20 years.

    Each year of Rahmon's presidency is detailed on a separate disk, twenty in all, with the remaining seven disks of the 27-disk collection dedicated to Rahmon's role in developing various sectors of the country.

    Among those seven are films such as "Emomali Rahmon and Food Security" and "Emomali Rahmon and Energy Independence."

    US CALLS FOR RE-INSTATEMENT OF TAJIK HUMAN RIGHTS GROUP

    The US seldom says anything about Tajikistan from Washington, but the US mission to the OSCE is empowered to make critical statements — and thank God it does. Here's a statement as delivered by Ambassador Ian Kelly, to the Permanent Council, Vienna, December 13, 2012

    The United States notes with concern that a court in Tajikistan ordered the NGO Amparo to close on October 24, 2012, citing alleged minor administrative irregularities in the organization’s operations. We support Amparo's recently expressed intention to appeal the court's ruling, as the organization seeks to continue its important work. Amparo has worked tirelessly since 2005 to empower the youth of Tajikistan through human rights education and to monitor the human rights situation of some of Tajikistan’s most vulnerable groups, including orphans and the disabled. Amparo is an integral part of the burgeoning civil society tapestry in Tajikistan. Its efforts are precisely the sort of activities that every country should encourage in its civil society in order to strengthen the rule of law, democratization, and respect for human rights.

    The United States calls on the government of Tajikistan to reinstate Amparo’s license to operate consistently with OSCE commitments to respect and protect freedom of association.  We further call on Tajikistan to refrain from similar actions against other NGOs working to improve life for Tajikistan’s people.

    Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

    WANTED: A LAWYER WHO CAN TAKE THIS SILLY DEVELOPMENT JOB AND MAKE IT INTO SOMETHING USEFUL TO PEOPLE

    Here's a typical USAID development sort of "rule of law" job description — (it's called ROL in the business, although ROFL might be more appropriate in some settings, given their judicial systems). The title is "Program Director" and the program is "Equal Before the Law".

    This time it's at the Eurasia Foundation, but it could be any of these still-existing US-funded sort of jobs.

    And if it's anything like the hundreds of other jobs in this business, the person who is drafted to fill it will be hired because he has already proven himself as a US bureaucrat, and is able to fill out elaborate report forms and draft budgets, and not because he can actually push the envelop in Dushanbe.

    When I read the wimpy job description, I wish they could add things like this:

    o Establish contact with practicing lawyers who defend human rights victims and do what you can to assist their work even quietly and help them if they get in trouble; meet those lawyers who protested the whopping punitive fines on their media clients, or those still brave enough to try to help those accused of extremism;

    o Keep trying to get the Tajik authorities to lift their ban on the registration of the human rights group Amparo and let lawyers into the courtrooms where "extremists" are being tried;

    o Make sure you invite a wide variety of people to your programs, not just the approved and combed government lawyers or officials but people both with and without law licenses;

    o Help people with everything from literature and ideas to contacts and pointers to sources of funding to go behind your own silly little program;

    o Be careful what you tell diplomats, you could be WikiLeaked. Practice good online security and be well-behaved offline — nobody likes drunken, ugly Americans who also hit on the locals;

    o Keep your go-bag packed by the door, because you may be expelled suddenly because you are doing a good job — and have a zip drive of your stuff ready to roll and easy contact of all major news and diplomats who can easily protest your expulsion;

    You get the idea. I don't think enough people do it this way. Yeah, I get it that I'm writing a description for a Human Rights Watch job that in fact should also have in it "Be willing to accept and roll with death threats emanating from close watch of your personal life by creepy people."

    But still. More can be injected into these anodyne roles and never is.

    IS IT MALEVICH OR IS IT TAJIKISTAN?

    Kulobatnight

    Is this Kazimir Malevich's famous Black Square painting? Or is it Kulyab at night? You have your answer from the Tajik blogger Hasavor, who blogs in Russian here (and hasn't gotten the memo yet from foreign planners that would instruct him to stop using Russian so we can all share in his insights). Translation:

    "How is it possible that in a country that sells electricity to Afghanistan and builds the highest flagpoles in the world, gigantic (although empty) libraries, enormous mosques and super-expensive residential complexes for rich people doesn't have enough electricity for ordinary people"?

    "We continue to live in the stone age. The people are chopping tees for firewood, heating stoves with dung fuel and buying up coal for the winter."

    h/t Global Voices.

    RIPPLE EFFECT OF BAN ON FOREIGN-FUNDED ACTIVITIES

    Like Russia, which has gotten a lot more attention doing this, Tajikistan has cracked down on foreign-funded activities; in October, there was an official ban on foreign-funded seminars and conferences. Hey, do these CIS leaders attention their on Russian-funded conferences where they plot and harmonize these things?!

    I'm going to try to be very upset that somebody can't have an all-expense-paid seminar in Dushanbe, truly I am, but the real problem with this is that the per-diems that can keep Tajiks alive also dry up with something like this and the contacts that can be helpful even in silly development jobs.

    And of course, scrutiny of foreign funding then is the next thing to come.

    Western diplomats are shocked at the ban, since international NGOs play an enormous role in the country’s economy, public health, and infrastructure.  Students are traditionally the main target of these NGOs in developing countries such as Tajikistan, which is still recovering from years of stagnant Soviet rule.

    This role isn't without its controversies as we've reported regarding the Agha Khan Foundation.

    h/t @ericamarat

    HOW CAN YOU SUPPORT NGOS IN TAJIKISTAN?

    Pamir
    Wanted: More pretty mountains, less ugly realities. Photo by dwrawlinson, 2006.

    The question then becomes how you can support NGO activity in Tajikistan if the government bans it.

    And you have to ask the question that if the government is banning it for some, why isn't it for others? And what is to be done about sorting this out?

    This organization — about which I know nothing directly — appears to be trying to solve the problem of how you survive when the UN doesn't renew your original start-up grant and when perhaps you don't have other options with other big funders.

    You sell calendars of the beautiful Pamir mountains.

    So if you're indignant about the failure to sustain NGOs, why, you can go buy a £9.95 calendar from this outfit that supports eco-tourism in the Pamirs, META, founded by UNESCO and now 'restructured' and struggling to exist on its own.

    Someone will explain to me why the Agha Khan folks left these people out, or maybe it's a different opera — I have a lot to learn. But the idea is one that might work for others.

    I'm just trying to figure out who can pose for "March" for the "torture" concept that some other groups need to illustrate their causes on their calendars.  Anybody to pose for "June" for "domestic violence"? Ok, back to the pretty mountains…

    HOW MANY TAJIKS CAN FLUSH THEIR TOILETS?

    Tajik Toilet
    Outhouse in Bulunkul, Tajikistan.  Photo by kvitlauk, 2009.

    "Only 5% of population have access to safe drinking water and drainage in Tajikistan," says the scare headline based on a UN report at CA-News.

    But that's incorrect and misleading, so you have to go see what the original report said by looking at the UN News Centre.

    "Access to clean water one of most pressing environmental challenges," is the way the UN directly states it.

    This is how they wrote the story more clearly:

    The EPR finds that only one third of Tajikistan’s 7.2 million inhabitants have access to chlorinated piped water. Some 30 per cent rely on spring water and the remainder of the population depend on river and ditch water sources. Only five per cent of the population are connected to public sewerage.

    They also mention the tailings from mines as does CA. We're going to keep hearing about those 55 million tons of radioactive waste in every conceivable way under every conceivable rubric — because it makes a good scare headline — until the cows come home — or they don't, and die glowing. It's not as if nothing is being done about this problem, as we reported, but it's a perfect storm of problems in Tajikistan, and this is just one more thing.

    TAJIKS LOVE THEIR FELLOW PERSIANS AND HATE THE JEWS:  IRANIAN TV

    You know how I said we don't have very many polls really to explain the attitudes of Tajiks to Islam, extremism, the treatment of suspected Islamic extremists and terrorists in their country, and so on. Well, we don't.

    But, to fill the gap, there is always Iranian TV!

    Say, if you want the polls to come out right, pay for them yourself and put them on state-controlled TV in an authoritarian state, I always say.

    But there's more — and totally predictable, about Israel:

    The Zionist entity was least favorably viewed with 57.5 percent of
    respondents choosing negative and very negative to describe their
    feeling about the regime. England and France followed the Zionist entity
    with 30.6 and 28.8 percent respectively.

    Evil Satan America is not even mentioned, and perhaps not mentionable.

    Well, this is what you get from a poll about the two Persian speaking members who are members of the Economic Cooperation Organization, as Iranian TV helpfully explains.

    HOW IS TAJIKISTAN NOT LET YEMEN? LET ME COUNT THE WAYS

    Nate Schenkkan ‏@nateschenkkan asks on Twitter:

    Serious question: if we project out 5-10 years, how much does Tajikistan look like Yemen in this description? http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/19/zero_farce_thirty?page=0,2

    In the piece he links to, about the controversial film about hunting bin Ladn called Zero Dark Thirty, Ty McCormick interviews Ali Soufan, who says this:

    We also need to study the incubating factors that promote terrorism. What are the factors in South Yemen that are making people and tribes join al Qaeda? For example, one sheikh, when asked why he was sheltering al Qaeda fighters, responded that the government had promised to send him six teachers. Fahd al-Quso brought 16 teachers. In some areas al Qaeda has also supplied electricity and water. These things don't cost much, and we used to give billions of dollars to the Yemeni government, but most of it went to line pockets. It did not reach ordinary people. So we have to deal with the roots of the problem: What are the incubating factors for terrorism? And there's no cookie-cutter approach to this. What works in South Yemen probably won't work in the north of the country, and what works in Saudi Arabia probably won't work in Libya, because there's a range of incubating factors. Sometimes it's sectarian, sometimes it's tribal, sometimes it's economic, but the roots are never religious or ideological.

    We could add that what works in Yemen won't work in Tajikistan, either. But for Ali to tell us that the roots are "never" religious or ideological is just plain daft. Of course they are religious — extremist forms of Islam — and of course they are ideological — and some Islamism got its start with copying Marxism-Leninism, and it's okay to say that. Every single Central Asian regime sees it that way, and our job isn't to pretend they aren't seeing some real problems with extremism (how did the Arab Spring turn out) but to persuade them to address it in less abusive ways.

    Ideas matter, people think about them and study them and talk about them and then sometimes they do them, and we should follow that and not blank it out of the equation. If it were possible to fix countries by just 10 more teachers for every Al Qaeda gifting of teachers (and what kind of teachers those might be!), USAID would have triumphed in every corner of the world by now; OSCE too.

    Come on, Yemen and Tajikistan are not really so alike, although to the "progressives" in Washington with their my-focals, any place where there is American activity can all seem alike and all evil.

    Here's how these two are different:

    o Yemen 24.8 million Tajikistan 7 million

    o Yemen has considerable Saudi Aid backing it up; Tajikistan has some but nearly nothing like Yemen

    o Yemen gets some US aid, but a lot more from Russian and China — say, ditto Tajikistan but the dynamics are different as the number of US military in Tajikistan is dwarfed by the number of Russian military.

    Asia Times explains it all for you:

    Russia has stolen a march over the United States in the multimillion-dollar arms market in cash-strapped Yemen, whose weapons purchases are being funded mostly by neighboring Saudi Arabia.

    The Yemeni armed forces, currently undergoing an ambitious modernization program worth an estimated $4 billion US, are equipped with weapons largely from Russia, China, Ukraine, eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics.

    With the attempted bombing of a US airliner on Christmas Day by a Nigerian student, reportedly trained by al-Qaeda in Yemen, the administration of President Barack Obama has pledged to double. Yemen’s military and counter-terrorism aid, to nearly $150 million, to strengthen the besieged government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

    I've just spent the same half hour looking online that I've spent many times before trying to find the exact dollar number for how much US military aid goes to Tajikistan, and it's hard to do and there aren't clear answers — but I think it's a VERY safe belt that it is not $4 billion, you know? It's more like that $150 million to Yemen, that looks very insignifant to Russia and China — whose aid never stirs the blood of the NGOs and the pundits in Washington like US aid.

    Yes, Nate can say something like this not only because Russia and China simply don't bother him as much as America — he's American and in America and it's easier to reach: CENTCOM is directly involved with Tajikistan — they're easier to scold than Russia not only because they are closer to hand but because they tell you what they are doing.  We also know about the "secret drone war" in Yemen because we have free media to cover it; the Russian free media, such as it is, is preoccupied usually with other things.

    TAJIK  PARLIAMENT APPROVES LAW AGAINST DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

    Tajik Women
    Wedding musicians in Khorog, Badakhshan, 2011. Photo by Evgeni Zotov.

    RFE/RL reports a new law responding to the problem of domestic violence in Tajikistan:

    The law includes a statement that the elderly should play an active role in preventing domestic violence among young families.

    The advice of elders carries significant weight in traditional Tajik society.

    According to official statistics, more than 200 women took their own lives in 2010 and a majority of the cases were related to domestic violence.

    Nate Schenkkan frets that this "a bit mild."

    Yes. But it's better than — if you'll forgive the expression — a stick in the eye.

    One does have to worry about a law that tries to solve modern problems — all the men having to go work abroad and some of the women also having to go do that now, too, instead of herding goats — and then tries to perpetuate ancient solutions to them from institutions that have now broken up (like the family) or which, like the elders may help certain patriarchal traditions best left discontinued, like wife-beating.

    UNFPA also tries to get the Islamic elders in Sudanese society to do more to get the African men to stem the epidemic of rape of women. Sometimes it works. Generally, it doesn't.

    WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT BIG NEIGHBOURS AND BIG POWERS THAT DON'T HELP YOU VERY MUCH

    Alexander Cooley ‏@CooleyOnEurasia tweets about a new report from Finland:

    Interesting and topical new @FrideEUCAM working paper on the security-development nexus in #Tajikistan http://www.eucentralasia.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/Working_Papers/EUCAM-WP12-Tajikistan-EN.pdf

    The report is by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland EUCAM Security and Development project implemented by FRIDE and the Karelian Institute of the University of Eastern Finland — and one bonus from clicking on that link is that you will sort out all these acronyms and what they mean.

     

    The EUCAM-SD is a key component of the EUCAM programme and focuses on the links between security challenges in the Central Asian region and the need for development in the broadest sense, including governance, poverty reduction, ethnic tension and social equality.

    I could only take the time to skim it now, but it looks useful. Let me say this: this report comes from a country that has also itself had to grapple with the problem of having a very big neighbour on its border who, well, Finlandized it. Tajikistan has that same big neighbour, too.

    Sugar Melon Pamir
    Shop in the Pamir mountains. Photo by Sugar Melon.

  • Tajik Opticon #3

     

    Prokudin-Gorsky
    1907 Solar Eclipse Expedition by Sergei Prokhudi-Gorskii, Russian Photographer in Central Asia.

    This is my little weekly newsletter on Saturdays about Tajikistan. You can send news or comments or get it sent by email by writing to me at [email protected]

    COMMENT:

    So the in-your-face Tajik telecommunications official Beg Zuhorov did keep his word as I reported last week and opened back up the Internet sites Facebook and RFE/RL  — after implying they could be shut any time by having announced that "the public" had complained about "extremism" (never explained precisely). It turns out some of the providers didn't even bother to follow the blocking orders, and one of them was owned by President Emmomali  Rahmonov's own son. It always annoys me when a story likes this gets reported by EurasiaNet.org and others as a Bad Thing About Central Asia, and gets  picked up by numerous tech sites, blogs, etc. but then the un-doing of the Bad Thing doesn't get reported. At least RFE/RL had a report about its unblocking but it was never clear what it was really all about.

    While it may be only a coincidence, given how many of these types of trials are, the blockage came just as a group of people were about to go on trial for this nebulous "extremism" in Khojand (the verdict was announced after websites were running again). This seems a particularly strange and brutal case — among the 7 defendants are two middle-aged women and their minor teenage sons, 16 and 18 (the defendant was arrested before he turned 18). They all got very high sentences for "advocating the violent overthrow of the Constitutional order". Helpfully, they pleaded guilty using the exact same language of the charges in the criminal code. But we have no idea what they actually did. It's hard to picture these moms and their teenage sons throwing bombs.

    I have no use for Hizb-ut-Tahir; I have absolutely no hesitation condemning it as extremist and likely cunning and duplicitous about its ultimate aims. It claims that it is merely "peacefully" going about building a caliphate, i.e. theocratic rule, but it never explains what the plans are for all the infidels who don't want a caliphate. Too often, HuT members or ex-members, as somebody always patiently explains in exasperation at your suspicions, are tried and found guilty of real crimes. Even Western countries like Germany have banned the group.

    It's too bad that human rights groups and pundits who see these kinds of awful cases such as occurred in Khujand can't find a way to condemn the way the Tajik government misuses the law and persecutes people — AND condemn the groups that seem to have gotten their clutches into ordinary poor people in this backward country. I'm quite prepared to believe that all these people involved are innocent, and even the repeat offenders at least suffered lack of due process, yet I'd like to see the literature, the activities and the groups behind these cases as well — and I don't see anything wrong with morally condemning them and opposing them, even if the opposition should not take the form of prosecution. There is such a legion of determined do-gooders with the position that HuT is innocent because innocent people are wrongfully prosecuted over HuT that I am the only person in the metaverse with this position. I wish I had more company. If I had more company, and if especially Tajik journalists and human rights activists felt more free to condemn HuT and make the distinctions between the group's reprehensible goals and those victimized around it, I think we might see less victims.

    The World Bank is telling the Tajiks to cut their already very sparse electricity consumption in half. Tajikistan is already a place with blackouts and the lights going off all the time routinely, yet it's like that old Vietnam-war joke about the Soviets writing to the Vietnamese Communists: "Tighten your belts!" Reply: "What are belts? Send them!"

    This outrageous austerity program is unlikely to get consent from the Tajik government, but I really have to wonder why it is even being proposed. Yes, electricity is the cheapest in the world, but the country is also among the poorest in the world AND it is supplying some of its power to war-torn Afghanistan, which the US is usually grateful for. I guess I can think of a lot of things that might be done to save energy in Tajikistan before consumers are told to shut off their lights. It's not like they're leaving their computers and kindles and microwaves plugged in all night running. Example: are there a lot of Soviet-era huge Stalin-type giant buildings all over the place? Why are they being heated day and night?  And is the government looking the other way or even taking bribes while some companies steal electricity, as they do in Uzbekistan? If I were Tajikistan, I'd stall on that outrageous World Bank proposal and tell them to get busy doing a usage and hot spots report for a year and get back to them.

    Seems like the US military also wants to tell Tajikistan not to run their toasters too much: in a tweet, the Central Asia Newswire tells Dushanbe that austerity, not Roghun, is the answer. To be honest, I don't have an informed opinion as to whether it's true that Roghun is the ecology-busting monster that Uzbek propagandists claim — who have an easier time making their case in the world media and world's institutions than Tajikistan. The World Bank has gotten stung around the world over the decades backing big, stupid, expensive, destructive dam projects, and now all that Western NGO yammering against them has caught up with them — and they have to take it out on Tajikistan, I guess. There doesn't seem to be an international multilateral organization that seems to have the stamina to take this issue on — neither the UN, despite the marbled heated halls of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Ashgabat, nor the World Bank, or OSCE has been able to get the traction to really decide this for the region – read: stand up to Russia, waiting in the wings, and Uzbekistan, which is nasty.

    So, like a lot of things in Central Asian life, maybe it will be left to the Chinese…

    Surprise — Tajikistan is corrupt, says Transparency International in its latest report. But interestingly, it's not *as* corrupt as its immediate neighbours. There's a 20 point or more gap in their scores, even though all of them are hugging the bottom of the barrel. Now why is that? Is there a fine line between corruption that is deterred through authoritarian persecution (i.e. as in Iran, not an ideal way to handle it obviously) and authoritarian persecution that in fact only leads to corruption to get around it? (Uzbekistan). Or are their cultural factors? Or is it that if you are just too poor, with half your GDP made up of people gone abroad to work,  it's hard to be corrupt?

    Cue up the garden perennial story that the Russian language is dying out because somebody has made a trip to Dushanbe and has anecdotes to tell. Sorry, this old Russian-speaker isn't buying it. Maybe because I speak Russian to all the Tajiks I ever run into in New York or Washington, even 20-somethings, and they never seem surprised or angry. Now, I get it that Russian isn't being taught as much, that young people aren't speaking it as much, and so on. And there's also the living fact that actual native Russian-speakers are being driven out of Tajikistan by repression and poverty — doctors and engineers among the ethnic Russians and Russian speakers of the old Soviet Union are forced to leave — 3661 last year, which doesn't sound like very many, until you realize this is among the tens of thousands who have left since the fall o f the USSR, and they happen to be among many of the professionals. It's brain-drain, which isn't a surprising thing in a country where the dictator turns off Internet pages on a whim.

    Even so, I think programmers for this region, whether at RFE/RL or OSI or OSCE or any institution, have really lost an opportunity due to their hatred of Russians and aversion toward the Russian language. Here was this built-in lingua-franca that you didn't have to pay anyone to teach or learn, like English, which still isn't as widespread as these planners believe. There is all kind of literature — good, democratic literature — published by all kinds of institutions, including even the old CIA-funded bodies like the International Literary Center, now defunct. Here's a lingua franca, by the way, that would enable these peoples to talk to *each other* and others in the CIS who might support them and at least learn about their issues. Yet the nationalists in the State Department or Soros — the people who think that every country has to follow the path of Poland by relying on language and religion to gain freedom — block even the most benign efforts to try to have cross-border Russian materials. The radios don't have Russian-language pages for most of the stans, except Kazakhstan, where the excuse is that there is a large Russian minority. I wonder what their traffic is on that page from all the stans? Somebody in Turkmenistan has to find out free news in Russian from RFE/RL by going to the Kazakhstan page instead of the Turkmen page. The success of fergananews.com and chrono-tm.org in Russian should succeed in making the point to these planners that they are short-sighted and misled. They could be promoting local languages while also trying to use what remains of this lingua franca to promote freedom and understanding.

    Here's When to Schedule Your Trip to Dushanbe, Mark Zuckerberg

    Ever diligent Facebook friends have found out the office hours of Beg Zuhurov, the brazen Tajik official who justified the closure of Facebook on the grounds that "the public was complaining too much about extremism". The official is only at his desk to meet supplicants on Saturdays from 10:00 am to 12:00 pm. Nice! So after a week's hard work, just when you might be sleeping in or spending time with your family or doing your second job to make ends meet, that's when Zuhurov's office is open!

    Fergana.com reported that Tajikistan had blocked Facebook on November 27, and that Zuhurov had invited Zuckerberg "or one of his assistants" to come visit him to discuss the matter. All six Internet providers were ordered to block it and complied; mobile providers did the same.

    Zuhorov made this evasive comment at the time:

    I personally didn't give the order to block the access to the social network Facebook The Communications Service didn't give it either, but if it is necessary, the access will be closed. Every day I receive complaints from people about the contents on the network. The network does not resolve social issues, but purely commercial. Everyone remembers how the civil war began in the country, so then everything then began with criticism. We will not allow war to occur.

    I reported last week that Zuhorov then soon promised to unblock the sites — and he kept his word.

    Are Web Sites Unblocked in Tajikistan?

    But there was still due diligence to be done. Fergana.com asked on December 4 whether reports from RIA-Novosti, the Russian state news agency, were true that Facebook and other Internet sites were unblocked.

    "Access to Facebook is unblocked by the state Internet provider Tajik-telekom," Asomuddin Atoye, head of the Tajik association of Internet providers. "If the state Internet-provider has unblocked Facebook, then I'm sure there will be permission from the Communications Service for other providers and operators as well," Atotyev said.

    Some Tajik Providers Are More Equal Than Others

    Radio Liberty's Tajik Service Radio Ozodi reported that it was blocked on December 1, and apparently later that it  had been unblocked, fergananews.com reported. RFE/RL confirmed that the site was unblocked on December 3. This apparently happened after Tajik state agency for communications sent out SMS messages with "a demand to unblock the site". Fergananews.com was still trying to check whether this was true on December 4, and also discovered that some providers had never blocked the sites in the first place.

    Fergananews.com says a source reported:

    "You know why? Because, for example, the Saturn-Online provider belongs to the son of the president of the country, Rustam Emomalievich, and the Ministry of Communications doesn't touch that company."

    Russian Language Fading Away

    RFE/RL reports: A Tajik who grew up in Dushanbe but only
    recently returned after decades in Russia has noticed a change in the
    Tajik capital. Hardly anyone speaks Russian anymore.

    As Konstantin Parshin at EurasiaNet.org tells it: 

    Evidence is mostly anecdotal, but the linguistic changes are
    obvious to Tajiks who have been away for years. This past summer, for
    example, Ruslan Akhmedov wanted to sell an apartment he inherited, so
    returned to Dushanbe from a small Russian town where he's lived for most
    of his adult life. "I placed an ad in a local paper indicating my phone
    number," Akhmedov recalled. "Out of about thirty people who called me
    during the first couple of days, only three or four easily switched into
    Russian. With the others, I had to communicate in my primitive Tajik.
    Regrettably, I've almost forgotten the language."

    CIS Heads of State Meet 

    The heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States met in Ashgabat on December 6.

    Nothing happened.

    The Golden Age, the Turkmen government website, reported:

    The meeting participants considered and discussed a series of issues,
    including organizational. Owing to them, it was made relevant decisions.

    Wait. Did something happen? According to trend.az:

    The Declaration stressed that organized crime, terrorism, illegal drugs
    and psychotropic substances traffic are a serious threat to the security
    of CIS states.


    "We declare our intention to fight against these threats," the document said.

    Russia thinks something did happen, however. Putin hopes to use his leverage hosting the G20 and G8 meetings in Russia to represent Central Asia's intersts. RT reports:

    However, it can happen only on condition that these interests are timely and duly formulated, the Russian president added.

    Developing
    the topic of international cooperation, Vladimir Putin told the
    participants that they should develop and promote a common agenda in
    various other international organizations, such as the OSCE.

    Putin added that the current situation in this organization “was not a source of optimism”. “OSCE
    should have long ago stopped servicing the interests of certain
    countries and concentrate its attention on unification issues,” the Russian leader said.  Putin also expressed hope that when Ukraine takes it turn to chair the OSCE in 2013 it would promote this very position.

    Transparency:  Two-Thirds of Countries Said to Be 'Highly Corrupt

    RFE/RL reports:

    The anticorruption group Transparency
    International (TI) says high levels of bribery, abuse of power, and
    secret dealings continue to “ravage” societies around the world, despite
    a growing public outcry over corrupt governments.


    The annual Corruption Perceptions Index,
    published on December 5 by the Berlin-based group, shows that
    two-thirds of 176 countries are perceived by citizens to be highly
    corrupt.

    Tajikistan is among them, of course.  But as you can see from the map, it ranks only 157, by contrast with its neighbours Turkmenistan, at 170, and Afghanistan, at 174, Uzbekistan at 170, but not as good as Iran, at 133 and just a tad worse than Kyrgyzstan which is at 154.

    Intervention at the OSCE Ministerial Council

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a little bit to say about Tajikistan in her speech at the OSCE meeting of foreign ministers:

    In Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, there are
    examples of the restrictions of the freedom of expression online and
    offline as well as the freedom of religion.

    Ok, that's it. The resolution on digital freedom didn't pass, despite now finally — after some hard negotiations — having 47 signatories. Still, 57 are needed in this consensus organization.

    Russians Leave Tajikistan for Russia

    Asia-Plus says 3,661 people left for Russia this year.

    3,661 people have left Tajikistan for Russia under the Russian
    national program to assist the voluntary resettlement of
    fellow-countrymen living abroad to the Russian Federation since 2007.

    According to the Russian Federal Migration Service (FMS)’s office in Tajikistan, 62 percent of them have higher education.

    So these are ethnic Russians or Russian speakers of other "nationalities", i.e. not Tajiks or Tajik-spakers.

    Speaking at the meeting, Viktor Sebelev, the head of FMS’s office in
    Tajikistan, noted that 30 percent of those who had left Tajikistan for
    Russia under the mentioned program were technical and engineering
    employees and 15 percent physicians.  30 percent of physicians that have
    left Tajikistan fro Russia have scientific degrees.

    Court Sentences "Extremists" in Tajikistan

    Asia-Plus reports December 8 that in Khujand, seven people have been tried for "extremism," accused of membership in Hizb-ut-Tahir, which is a "banned religious extremist party" under Tajik law (in Russian).

    Judge Shukhrat Akhrorov said that the sentences were announced in investigation-isolation building no. 2 in Khujand, and that among the convicted were three women and one minor. Most of them pleaded guilty in exactly the language of the law itself, including "the forcible change of the Constitutional order," said the judge.

    Among them were two Chkalovsk residents, Islom Boboyev, 16, and Sukhrob Khafiz, now 18, were sentenced to 6 and 10 years incarceration, respectively, and were serve their terms in prison colonies under "strict" and "common educational" regimes, respectively.

    Others sentenced:

    Mavloniddin Ermatov, resident of Isfar, 28, second-time offender, 3 years strict regime colony

    Sattorkul Kholikulov, 36, resident of Zafarabad district, also repeat offender, 3 years strict regime.

    Mukhayyo Khafizov, mother of Sukhrob, 39, 12 years, common regimen prison colony

    Mukhabbat Khafizov, 28, 10 years prison

    Minir Boboyev, 40, mother of Islom Boboyev, sentenced to 8.5 years, common regimen prison colony.

    The sentences are being appealed.

    According to the Sogdi region prosecutor, "56 active members of religious and extremist parties have had their cases sent to court."

    Earthquake in Tajikistan

    4.7 magnitude, in Murghob.

    Joint Tajik-Afghan Drug Raid

    Tajik and Afghan authorities nabbed nearly 1,000 pounds of drugs in a six-day border operation.

    “The successful 6-day joint operation was launched in northern Afghan
    province of Badakhshan and Khatlon province in [southern] Tajikistan,”
    the Xinhua news agency reported Afghan Deputy Interior Minister Baz
    Mohammad Ahmadi said at a press conference. The seized drugs included
    heroin and opium.


    Thirteen Afghan citizens are now in custody, the minister said. There
    has been no official statement on any Tajiks arrested in the operation,
    although two Tajik women who had been taken hostage by the drug
    traffickers were released.

    No word on any psychotropic drugs.

    World Bank Advises Tajikistan to Hike Electricity Price 50%

        Central Asia Newsire reports:

    The World Bank has advised authorities in Tajikistan to hike
    electricity prices by 50 percent as part of its solution to the
    country’s perennial winter power crisis, local media reported on
    Tuesday.

    The study, entitled “Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis: Electricity
    Supply and Demand Alternatives”, notes that aside from the country’s
    inability to meet energy requirements, consumers are not incentivized to
    use power carefully.

    That article doesn't mention Roghun, yet the US military-funded Central Asia Newswires has some advice on top of the World Bank's report in the tweet sent to link to the World Bank report

    #Rogun is not answer to #electricity woes – increasing fares, conserving #energy is

    Automatic Check-in Down at Dushanbe Airport

    Central Asia Newswire reports that Tajikistan’s international airport at Dushanbe have been checked-in the
    old fashioned way for the last two weeks over a pay dispute, citing local media
    outlets.

    David Trilling of Eurasianet.org calls this "one of the world's worst airports" and tweets that it "just got more inefficient".

    Forests and Wildlife Increased in Endangered Area in Tajikistan

    Good news! UNDP reports:

    Tajikistan’s Vakhsh River valley is crucial to the livelihoods and food
    security of millions of people, but the degradation of natural resources
    has been persistent and extensive over the past 100 years. The tugai
    forests, reservoirs of biodiversity and source of income for local
    communities, have been stripped at an ever-escalating rate, either to
    clear land for agriculture or as source of energy.

    But UNDP stepped in with a project to reverse these trends.

    After four years, an evaluation of the project found that tree-cutting
    had declined by 90 percent since 2008, allowing the forest to
    regenerate, while populations of birds and animals increased by 50
    percent. Community members say they feel a sense of pride and ownership
    in what they have been able to accomplish. "Protecting the forests is a
    noble cause that should always be supported," says Bekmurodov
    Kurbonmahmad, a member of the committee.

    Did they stop cutting trees merely because they ran out of them? What are they using for fuel now? Animal dung? And while it's great that the animals returned, how are the people doing?

    In the district of Jura Nazarov, UNDP assisted communities with other
    aspects of sustainable rural development. Almost all of the district’s
    14,000 inhabitants depend on farming, but more than 70 percent of the
    land is no longer arable, after years of poor agricultural and
    irrigation practices during the Soviet era.

            Yet, UNDP says it has good news there, too:

    Seventy-five percent of the respondents reported that they were able to
    sell additional crops, with a 25 percent increase in income on average.
    The extra funds have gone into renovating family homes, hiring farm
    labour to expand production, repairing irrigation systems and sending
    children to school.

    Feeling Glum About Tajikistan? Here's a Nice Promotional Video

    From the Embassy of Tajikistan in the US. It has a nice American narrator with a mellow accent, despite that "Ta-JICK-istan" to rhyme with "ick" and will be broadcast on ABC News. The message is that with US investment and lots of mining, the region will become more stable and the relationship will grow stronger.


     

  • MTS Back in Turkmenistan — But Only for Foreigners

    Is Russia's mobile company MTS back in Turkmenistan just for foreigners, or for everybody?

    Rumours have been floating around for some time, punctuated by upbeat predictions from corporate executives, that MTS was going to get back into Turkmenistan after a protracted hiatus since December 2010, when Turkmen tyrant Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov turfed out the Russian cell company unceremoniously, leaving 2.4 million customers in Turkmenistan without cell phone service — and that meant Internet access as well for some.

    The reason for the expulsion was in one sense straightforward — a five-year contract had come to an end and negotiations for a renewal had floundered on the Turkmen demand to get a bigger cut. There was also an assumption that with the Arab Spring and all, the Turkmen government just didn't want 3G or 4G and further Internet expansion to come to their country. They do a good job of blocking the Internet, with all of Youtube, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites all unavailable. They also have Chinese engineers as experts and their monitoring equipment installed for a song.

    Berdymukhamedov said he wanted competition to the sluggish, poorly performing sole state provider, named  Galkynysh (Revival) like every other thing in Turkmenistan that is poorly performing, too. So he invited back the Finnish telecom Nokia Siemens and the Chinese mobile company Huawei and said he wanted to see even three mobile companies compete in Turkmenistan.

    Not it's not clear where those deals are going, but maybe that was a ruse and a feint to get MTS back to the table on less favourable terms. Who knows.

    It's also been rumoured that the Turkmen government would turn on MTS at first only for foreigners or only for those in the capital or for the "specials".

    Sure enough, when an orchestrated media law conference was convened in Ashgabat this week by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the foreigners who came prepared to criticize Turkmenistan even within the confines of such an exercise were then pleasantly surprised that the cell service to which they've become addicted to in their own countries was working.

    Ali Navruzov, an avid blogger an activist from Azerbaijan (@ljmaximus) reports "MTS is just back in #Turkmenistan! I was a witness of a historic moment :)" in reply to my query.

    He was live-blogging the conference so check out his feed if you would like to see a less-sanitized version of events than you'll get from Turkmenistan: The Golden Age. (Why hasn't *that* been renamed Galkynysh?!)

    I naturally asked if MTS was turned on just for the area around the conference with the foreigners, or for everybody all over Turkmenistan, and the next day he replied:

    "As I reported yesterday, second cell phone operator in #Turkmenistan #MTS was back – today I learned it could be only for us, for roaming."

    All the better to monitor you, my dears!

    As Ali reports, Turkmen officials were all for the Internet and all for universal standards, but naturally asked penetrating questions like this: "MP Kurbannov: All schools should get the Internet, but question is what kind of the Internet?"

    Indeed!

    "What kind of Internet" is a question that Dave Winer asks!

    Pete Leonard did a story on the conference but didn't address the all-important mobile issue. Mobile is how the Internet grows by leaps and bounds in these countries.

    When asked why Facebook was blocked, Navruzov reports, a Turkmen Foreign Ministry official said he couldn't answer and since the head of Turkmentelekom wasn't present, he would have to wait to ask him. We saw that one coming!

     

     

  • What Will Be Tajikistan’s Plan B?

    Zarifi
    Foreign Minister Zarifi at CACI SAIS in Washington, DC, May 17, 2012.

    The NATO Summit in Chicago provided an opportunity to hear a number of Central Asian officials speak who stopped in Washington on their way to the summit.

    I've blogged about the many challenges Tajikistan faces as US troops exit Afghanistan in 2014 and the issue of terrorism and related challenges to religious freedom.

    Foreign Minister Hamrokhon Zarifi spoke at CACI SAIS May 17 on "Tajikistan and Central Asia in Light of 2014." Dr. S. Fred Starr opened the meeting. Zarifi worked for Tajik national security, i.e. the Soviet KGB from 1973-1993 and then in the 1990s served as ambassador to Austria, Switzerland, and Hungary and then came to the US from 2002-2006. So he is an important figure in terms of understanding the deep security issues of not only his own country but the region, and also understanding the thinking in Washington.

    Like so many speakers today, he described the turning point for the world and his country in September 2001; Tajikistan of course was riven by civil war from 1992-1997, in which 50,000-100,000 were said to be killed; perhaps it says something about the world's indifference and the closed nature of the society that the estimates vary so wildly.

    The first thing Zarifi mentioned was his 1,500 kilometer border with Afghanistan which is "very, very different" than our borders — "it's not like Canada" he explained helpfully for people who know this but need to think about it more — and even different than Mexico.  It's mainly mountainous rock, and it has very little electronic facilities; 70% of the border does not have any kind of electronic surveillance, electric fence or physical barrier or communications but just some dirt paths.

    "I hope we will be well-prepared for 2014," he said — and his schedule in recent months reflects the worry of the world — he has been to Beijing, Moscow, and now Washington, and consulted with the SCO and CSTO; also Istanbul and Bonn  Zarifi described his border as "quite silent," i.e. generally without incident, although of course EurasiaNet and other sites do have a number of stories of border incidents, mainly with Uzbekistan. "Except for drug aggression," he added — which, while not perhaps the precise English phrase he meant to say, conveyed something very important: the fierce determination of aggressive drug-smugglers against whom the world's various weak defense systems can't cope. There wouldn't be 30,000 illegal drug-related deaths in Russia otherwise.

    So what's his thinking about how to address the post-2014 challenges? Well, he has a lot of ideas. Building highways and railroads — there are a number of projects in progress and coming on line later in the decade. Vocational training, investment, trade; regional disaster and risk monitoring, regional fiber optic networks. CASA-1000 is quite important for these plans as it is building cooperation in the electricity market — Tajikistan suffers from such shortages of electricity that it impacts its press freedom because people literally can't print news or share news online if they are in the dark. "There are serious shortages in winter-time," added the minister.

    There's the Turkmen-Tajik rail system of 500 km that will go through the northern part of Afghanistan — these plans for more crossroads on the Silk Road are in play because Tajikistan does not have much ready gas and oil to export like other Central Asian nations — the deposits are very deep and not accessible, so railroads for other countries' products become important — of course, if relations with Uzbekistan ever improve enough (and Uzbekistan seems to exercise most of what we could call "transport aggression" here by simply blocking Tajikistan's passage due to disputes about the hydropower station that could deprive Tashkent of water for its cotton crops.)

    Although not mentioned very often or tied up to human rights concerns in the way Uzbekistan is, Tajikistan is part of the Northern Distribution Network, with important trucking routes.

    Different powers have their own idea of what the Silk Road should be, of course, and Zarifi indicates that it is not just a repeat of the old Central Asian Silk Road but draws in China, Iran, and Iraq, and connects the former Soviet Union to the Arab World.

    Notably, as to future projects, particularly gas pipelines, Zarifi makes it clear that neither disputes and rivalries among Central Asian powers, or America's concerns about relations with Iran will not be factored in, to deter regional development.

    "Nobody will be a resister or destroyer of these projects. Everybody will protect them." They all understand it will help their families, he added, as the economic cooperation will help the region be stable.

    As for pipeline projects with Iran, "Why should we avoid participation of Iran in gas pipelines? I'm not seeing any obstacles. If Iran would be ready to discuss, we will discuss."

    Zarifi also spoke optimistically about converting crops from opium to sweet potato, which Afghanistan exported 20 years ago. Obviously, the cash values of these crops differ wildly…

    Dr. Starr pointed out that a lot of the projects, such as those related to CASA-1000, were due to come online in the future — 2016, 2018, and so on. Meanwhile, 80% of the GDP of Afghanistan derives from the NATO countries. "A lot of bad things could start to happen" when that's withdrawn, he cautioned.

    "First, we don't know, some will stay," said Zarifi hopefully about the troops. The Coalition should "finish his job," he said.

    "Do you have a Plan B?" asked Starr. Indeed.

    What sort of Plan B could Tajikistan, a small and poor country with 25% of its own GDP made up of remittances from labour migrants in Russia, have regarding this tremendous challenge on its border?

    That's of course why the US military is in Tajikistan spending $1.5 million and more to train and equip troops particularly to make a more secure border.

    I heard a discussion at this conference that encapsulated the problem of this region for me in a way that nothing I have heard in a decade has:  A stable Afghanistan is of interest to Iran and a stable Afghanistan is of interest to the United States.

    Now, at first glance you might thing, "Can't we all get along, and a stable Afghanistan is in all our interests."

    But it doesn't, because the way this is interpeted in military and political doctrine is that a stable Afghanistan encourages Iran to become more interested in it and in fact Iran would prefer Afghanistan to be stable its way — thereby making both an increased threat to the US. A stable Afghanistan that is stable in the way the US would like it to be then becomes a threat to Iran.

    I recall back in the early 1980s, analysts would comment that the real war in Afghanistan was between communism and the West, as liberals often described it — a Soviet communist incursion that the West fought by proxy because it was interesetd in deterring the USSR — but rather was a war between communism and Islam. Now, we've ensured that it is more about Islam and the West.

    Tajikistan has a "strategic partnership" with Russia — the labour migrants and the students in universities and of course Russia's largest military base in Central Asia is in Tajikistan. "We would like to continue this relationship," said Zarifi carefully, but of course it's not without its problems.

    A stable Tajikistan is of interest to Iran as well, as they are from the same great Persian civilization. Many have concerns about a return to Islamic unrest and civil war as in the 1990s. Asked a bout a harsh new religious law, Zarifi responded:

    "We all respect and love our religion, but would never have it as a diktat in our country," he said. He pointed out, however, that unlike some other Central Asian countries, Tajikistan legalized the Islamic Party. "The law is not against Muslims," he explained, "but about the responsibility of parents for raising their children."

    Asked to explain why children were not allowed to attend mosques or obtain education in Islam, Zarifi said that several organizations abroad in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran were fomenting radical Islam. "We're not blaming the countries, but some groups in them," he elaborated.

    According to intelligence information — and he'd be in a position to know, or for that matter, spin this information — there were plans to train young children in suicide-bombing, a la Palestine.

    "We have concrete facts that children as young as 8 and 11 were going to be used," Zarifi said.

    Later I asked some Tajik journalists whether they found this information compelling. They didn't, because they had a basic journalistic question: what are the names of these children? Who are their families? What are the organizations? What countries were involved?

    When they find Tajik students are brought home from study in Egypt from Al Azhar, the top university, because supposedly they are being trained in suicide bombing, the Tajik journalists just aren't buying the story.  It's not a sophisticated notion, they feel.

    If there were children brought abroad and prepared for suicide missions, as claimed, shouldn't we get more facts about them? Where are they now?

    Zarifi also points out to those worried that Islam is suppressed that in the Soviet era, there were 15-17 mosques; today, there are 5,000-7,000 — although we do hear of some being shut down.

    "Nowadays, some are led by extremists who came back from the war in 1994, and nobody knows what they are teaching," the foreign minister complained. "We need to prepare our own imams."

    There's a vicious circle here, however, if the belief of foreign training in Islam is accompanied with so much suspicion; 800 persons were brought back home from studies abroad due to concerns about spread of the Arab Spring.

    Registan may not believe we can ever talk about the Arab Spring and Central Asia in the same breath; officials in charge in Tajikistan not only talk about it, but act on it.

    "There are some in Saudi Arabia, some in Iraq, and they try to teach our children a different way." Again, we need details ultimately to be persuaded, and it doesn't seem to reflect the lion's share of Islamic activity in Tajikistan. Zarifi indicated a vision of a "modern Islam, a peaceful Islam" with people studying Islam in Tajikistan — when sufficient numbers of domestic (i.e. state-controlled) imams are prepared, "maybe we will change our laws," he indicated.

    Children have to stay in the state's school, and study — they cannot be studying in religious schools. It is not that they are instructed not to go to the mosque at all; the idea is not to train them there, although for any religion, worship and instruction are hard to separate.

    Ultimately, Zarifi's attitude toward religion was sort of summed up with this off-handed remark:

    "If we pray five times a day, who will work?!"

    Asked a number of times about his advice or his "lessons learned" from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Tajik civil war regarding NATO, Zarifi replied:

    "Don't hurry. Be patient."

    Can the Arab Spring reach Tajikistan? Recently, Zarifi heard a report from his chief of telecommunications in the government who quipped that they had "7 million people on the Internet." Of course they don't, in a country of 7.5 million — it's a small fraction of penetration.

    But they all have mobile phones, and increasingly, the phones are getting the capacity to connect to the Internet.

    Starr batted away in irritation several Russian-speakers who wanted to speak to Zarifi in the language he likely spoke better than English, insisting that English remain as the language of the meeting. Russia looms over Tajikistan, of course.

    But an "extraordinary painful transition" is coming to Tajikistan with the wrenching changes in Afghanistan, "and the terms are created in Washington and not in Dushanbe, and it presents extreme dangers."

    The US does have a chance in concert with other NATO members and even Russia to mitigate this if it keeps a focus and a meaningful budget on the region.

  • The Opportunistic New Friends of Belarus, Cory Doctorow and Rebecca MacKinnon

     

    By Catherine A. Fitzpatrick

    All of a sudden, we have some new opportunistic Friends of Belarus — Cory Doctorow and Rebecca MacKinnon. They had virtually nothing to say all this time since December 2010 — 18 months — while hundreds of people have been tortured and put in jail, including the main independent journalists and those operating independent web sites like charter97.org   That's because Belarus just doesn't "fit" in their worldview, dominated by the US and its allies and the US and its sins. Russia's sins and the sins of all its allies are outside the ambit of their "progressive" worldview; they virtually never talk about it (both of them piped up about Russia only when they could bang on Microsoft, when corrupt Russians using Microsoft's name harassed human rights activists and environmentalists).

    Now that Swedish investigative journalists and NGOs have produced a film exposing the awful role played by Teliasonera in helping the regimes of Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and other post-Soviet states, finally Cory Doctorow can pay attention: evil telecom! Must stop! Boo, hiss!

    Here's my post at BoingBoing.net:

    We missed you and EFF back back in December 2010 when the Belarusian regime cracked down on thousands of peaceful demonstrators who were protesting election fraud, arresting some 700 people, and sentencing hundreds of them to lengthy sentences of years. Andrei Sannikov, Uladzimer Nyaklyaeu and the other opposition presidential candidates and their staffs. We missed you throughout 2011 and 2012 as all these people were mistreated and tortured, new arrests took place, and few but the US and EU governments and a few NGOs said anything about it. Throughout this period the regime closed down websites or hijacked them to show viewers only state sites; the main news site charter97.org has constantly been under DDOS attacks. This was never of interest to you Internet freedom fighters.

    Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt and various Swedish non-governmental organizations protested repeatedly to try to get them released, and finally the combination of US and EU sanctions on this regime led to the release of some leaders, although some still remain. EFF and all the cool kids could have cared less about Internet freedom issues in Belarus and these other countries as they didn't fit your paradigm of "Blame America First".

    You only tuned in when you could see the words "telecom" and begin to salivate in glee — because you don't care about human rights in countries like Belarus or Uzbekistan for their own sakes until you can find some angle that fits your own "progressive" ideology of hating on telecoms as evil obstacles to your Google-centric world.

    Teliasonera has enabled bad regimes, to be sure. But telecoms or Western businesses aren't the central issue, and if you take away their support, these autocrats just turn to China and their telecom companies. In fact evil telcos, whether Western, Russian, Chinese, or whatever, are making millions of people able to have their own cell phones and use the Internet, which some of them use to gather information independently and protest the regimes.

    And then, confronted with this complex story in which a Swedish telecom has not done the right thing, but the real problem is the nature of these authoritarian regimes, all you can do is turn an infantile gaze at your pet issue of surveillance in the United States, where you have more freedom of expression than any country in the world

    As for Rebecca MacKinnon, I welcome her to the Newly-Acquired Conscience Society for Belarus on Twitter, and she bristled. "Do your homework before accusing me," in an angry tweet. I had commented that she had not seemed to notice what Teliasonera or other companies did, although she's always banging on telecoms. She retorted that in fact she had tweeted about it a few days ago. Oh, but that doesn't count, as the time to care about telecoms and Belarus was 18 months ago, not a few days ago, if you really cared — and in fact, it was never really the primary issue. She also said she had mentioned the issue in her speech at Oslo Freedom Forum (I don't exactly see it there, but whatever*).

    Yet that speech epitomizes what is so awful about MacKinnon, Doctorow, Jillian York and the rest of the EFF and Berkman Center gang — the insidious moral equivalency of democratic countries under the rule of law with authoritarian countries without the rule of law. "Even in democratic nations," MacKinnon piously intones, "governments are using excuses to increase this control, such as the need for the protection of children." Excuses? Why can't governments block child pornography, which in fact involves often the exploitation of Russian children?!

    "We’re finding a growing global movement against companies who we feel are infringing our rights," she gushes. Of course, you don't have rights regarding companies — something I've been protesting about for seven years long before EFF cared about the typical Silicon Valley corporate TOS.

    Companies are non-state actors and are not obliged to enable your piracy, child pornography, or terrorism, let alone even absolutist free speech. They are private entities with their own rights of freedom of association and freedom of expression. Sure, we would like them to be bound at least by their own TOS (they seldom are) or principles of justice and rights, but negotiating such "rights" through the ITU or UN would bring about the very horrible controls from authoritarian regimes that MacKinnon also references in her protest that "we don't have a seat at the table" at ITU. (And that's why I say the answer is not to impose new "guidelines" or negotiate international rights in hostile international territory, but simply to enable a free market of ISPs and social media platforms with a range of approximation to these rights and values. MacKinnon doesn't like Apple's "censorship" of the intifada app? Then let her go over to CREDO or some other "progressive" telecom that can provider her with such violent entertainment.)

    Let me point out that none of us have a seat at the table at ITU even if MacKinnon's organizations get seats — and that's not the way to get Internet freedom. Companies  get to decide their course. The last place we should look for promotion of real freedom of expression and the fundamental liberty of Internet connection is the Global Network Initiative of Internet-related companies and NGOs over which MacKinnon presides — they could care less about Egypt or Syria or Belarus or Azerbaijan in the GNI context, whatever they do on their own, but devote most of their ire against US congress people drafting bills against piracy or promoting cybersecurity — Google's business imperatives matter far more to them than basic human rights for all.

    MacKinnon uses her highly-visible pulpit at the Oslo Freedom Forum to talk about a piece of legislation that she doesn't like that hinders violation of intellectual property rights. "EU politicians are increasingly saying that policies like ACTA are dead," she gloats. What about the journalists who are dead in places like Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Uzbeksitan, Rebecca? That's not the fault of telecoms or evil Western governments who want to prosecute pirates: it's the fault of those very authoritarian regimes.

    MacKinnon is thrilled that Wikipedia thugglishly went dark to whine about anti-piracy legislation that offended their "copyleftist" goals; that charter97.org was dark for many days due to the KGB never bothered her. For MacKinnon, protesting against firewalls put into place by the authoritarian and brutal state of Pakistan, where journalists are murdered with impunity, is all on a smooth and glib moral plane with the US, maybe passing some laws that in fact were narrowly defined against specific kinds of commercial piracy — bills that were defeated by a flash mob organized by Google, and Mitch Kapor's anti-copyright organizations EFF, PCF and Fight for the Fututre.

    It's really freaky — the only way that MacKinnon and these other self-absorbed and self-referential North Americans can see their way clear to taking up issues of human rights abroad is if they can find an evil Western corporation in the mix, or a Western government opposing piracy. The roots of piracy in authoritarian countries like Russia that metasticize their corruption to the rest of the world are uninteresting to them.

    I remember back in December 2010 and January 2011 there were various protest groups on Facebook where some of us repeatedly raised the issues of the European telecoms. There is an Austrian company doing business in Belarus that was involved as well as the Swedish company. An influential "progressive" Austrian activist actually didn't want to take up boycotts of companies or an EU boycott of Belarus, because "this would harm people". Nobody did.

    At that time, the Skype conversations of all the opposition leaders were being published in the state newspaper, sometimes in tendentious and false excerpts. It seems some mobile phone conversations were also used, and the location data — people were placed in the square at the time of the demonstration using this information, and that was enough to jail them.

    Of course, Lukashenka has been in business since 1996, long before the Internet and mobile phones were so present even in his own repressive country, and would find ways to jail people even without any evil foreign telecoms, as he always had, using the prodigious capacity of the still-named KGB, which follows people everywhere the old fashioned way. I recall once going to meet an opposition candidate along with some Belarusian journalists, and there were so many cars following us there was a traffic jam.

    There were different theories about how the Skype calls got in the state press — the KGB didn't necessarily hack into Skype; they may have simply hacked into computers and read logs, or they may have simply opened up computers with Firefox, which handily open up all applications for you with their embedded pass words — awfully convenient for the secret police unless you thought to use various devices to erase or download your hard drive quickly on to a flash drive.

    But people didn't think they were going to be arrested. They had been allowed to campaign independently during the election and have meetings with independent candidates. They thought a peaceful election-night rally on a square wouldn't lead to such a severe crackdown.

    Regardless of how the secret police got the conversations, location data, etc., by their own sleuthing or with the mechanical affordances of the telecoms they had access to, or which colluded them, the centrality of evil is in their corner, not foreign companies. I've said this about China and Cisco as well.

    I was just reading about Sergey Brin's anguish in staying in China after the Chinese government censored; he justified remaining under his usual theory that more knowledge was better than less, and that the Chinese people would get more from even a censored Google than if it were completely removed. It took the Chinese government's direct assault on Google's own servers for him to see it more personally — and then he could see his way clear to exiting Google — when a company has skin in the game, it's not until their own skin burns that the game becomes less fun for them, as they keep rationalizing it as still fun for other people.

    ___________

    *When I debated MacKinnon about this and she mentioned the Oslo Freedom Forum, a pretentious little social media flak from OFF began following me. I asked him if he stalked people when they disagreed with OFF speakers. "Don't flatter yourself," he told me rudely — as I often noticed, "strategic communications" is a profession where above all, you are entitled to be an arrogant ass and amplify it across all platforms. I then asked if he had an automatic script that followed anyone who mentioned OFF.

  • Thought Crime or Conspiracy for Action? The Mehanna Case and the Minimizers of Terrorism

    I've written before about the vexing problem of those working overtime to minimize terrorism and written a great deal about the case of Jamshid Muhtoror, the Uzbek refugee who has been arrested on charges of providing material support to the Islamic Jihad Union, a designated foreign terrorist organization.

    The judge's decision has come down in a case that has some similarities, that of the Boston-based US citizen Terek Mehanna.

    And not surprisingly, Joshua Foust has gone to bat for this man, sentenced to 17 years on charges of providing material support to Al Qaeda. Foust believes he has been unfairly tried and handed an overly-lengthy sentence for "thought crime," although he concedes that he deserves something like an eight-year sentence for lying to a grand jury.

    As usual, there isn't a single comment questioning Foust — and he never answers polemics in a forum like PBS where he'd have to behave himself under their likely "civility" TOS rules and argue with ideas instead of engaging in his usual nasty shenanigans. There's a bunch of adulatory re-tweets by people who don't even appear to think about the issues or read the indictment or dig deeper, but just take the "text as long as your hand" and click and click some more to like or retweet because it seems to fit the zeitgeist of suspecting every terrorist case as concocted by evil Amerika bent on subduing the world in the name of counterterrorism.

    So I commented as follows:

    Foust's article represents a troubling minimizing of the threat of terrorism and questioning of law-enforcement that we've seen throughout his analysis of the Muhtorov case. See, for example this discussion.

    It's important when Foust and others such as Glenn Greenberg are crying "thought crime!" to read the full indictment [you have to click through a maturity wall because I believe it contains links to graphic beheading videos.]

    Foust doesn't seem to concede that this case involves a *conspiracy*, that is, participation in a criminal group or network. His defense hinges on the idea that Mehanna never contacted any terrorist. But he indeed associated with others who tried, even if they failed, to get training with Al Qaeda. He associated with others who in fact had training in a terrorist group; in fact one of them was the person he lied about to a grand jury — *that* was the lie. He lied about the purpose and intended destination of a trip to Yemen, and lied as to whether he had received any assistance on this trip — he said no, although he had. Foust concedes that lying to a grand jury is a problem, but it's important to point out what the lie was about: associating with a man trained in a terrorist camp, and lying about the true purpose of his visit to Yemen, to get terrorist training.

    Is this guilt by association, the bugabear of forums' geeks and literalists all over the Internet? Well, if you don't want to be accused of the actions of a group, don't actively, willfully, knowingly, deliberately associate with a group and attempt — even if you fail — to meet the main criminals in it and gain training in a terrorist camp.

    There's also the question of material support, which Foust has rejected before as "overbroad" — he never seems to concede that supporting a terrorist group is unlawful, or — just when it seems like law-enforcement might in fact narrowly demonstrate to him — he jumps to say that it wasn't really support anyway.

    Translating for Al Qaeda and helping their propaganda networks of jihad films and hatred of the US, gleefully showing beheadings and glorifying the 9/11 terrorist attack and such, this is indeed helping a terrorist group. Just because Mehanna didn't physically come into contact with Al Qaeda but only translated and published and communicated on the Internet doesn't meet it isn't *material* help. Is the Internet always and everywhere to sanitize every act for Foust, so that any extremism is always to be excused as "Interneting while Muslim" as he and other sympathetic bloggers have described it?

    Perhaps there might be a case made for Mehanna *in isolation* as merely a devout if extreme Muslim believer with extreme but not criminal views if all he did was view jihad videos or look at jihad websites or discuss them with others of like mind.

    But he was in a group and network with others who in fact were attempting to gain training *as terrorists* and intending to commit terrorist acts.

    How long are you suppose to wait before expression (not just thought) and intention of criminal action (not just discussion) are to be enacted? If you couldn't see Mehanna's intent, and you couldn't see the intent of all the others in the conspiracy, perhaps you could make a case of "reasonable doubt." But you can see them; it's the Internet.

    The arguments that Foust, Greenberg and Mehanna's defense make are understandable, given their world views and professions, but they don't seem to go as far as saying the judge and prosecutors are politicized or actually have violated the law. But the prosecutor made his case and the judge accepted it  — they did make the narrow distinction between protected speech and unprotected speech. Foust and company just didn't like how it went. The judicial system doesn't treat these cases as isolated within some precious autonomous realm known as "the Internet". They view the intentions on display and the associations with known terrorists and from all evidence, they make a legitimate call that there was knowing and deliberate material assistance to a terrorist group, Al Qaeda. Translation of videos and web site text are crucial to Al Qaeda in their recruitment and propaganda activities.

    Foust's rendering of the Muhtorov case here is tendentious as well, as he fails to describe — again — what's actually in the indictment, which is not just reading about jihad or not just discussing it on the Internet, but contact with a foreign terrorist organization and preparation of equipment and cash to make a trip to Turkey and meet up with a representative of the Islamic Jihad Union. The interpretation here isn't "overly broad," because it has to do with phoning an actual group member, speaking in code about "weddings" which is said to be the Al Qaeda-style code, telling his young daughter that he would "see her in heaven" and so on. The arrest of Muhtorov was lawful, based on what the prosecution has shown so far.

    Foust concedes that the government should have the ability to "stop terrorist plots in their tracks, and it should reserve the right to go after the terrorist networks that facilitate these plots." But he says there should be "limits" so that people who merely talk smack about the US on pro-jihad sites aren't nabbed, and that there isn't a "disproportionate response" to Islamist terrorism. But these people didn't just talk, they associate knowingly and intentionally with *those who do act*. They didn't just talk, *they planned with those who act*. They didn't just read or express opinions, they gathered material support and equipment and planned to hook up with those who commit terrorism. So the US has from all indications acted properly.

    Everyone wants fundamental civil rights to be protected in counterterrorism. Yet as Art. 30 of the the Universal Declaration of Human Rights indicates, "Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State, group or person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act aimed at the destruction of any of the rights and freedoms set forth herein." In other words, you have to have some care about the very framework of rights themselves, and not invoke rights merely to usher in extremists who undo all of them for everybody.

    In other words, you cannot use one right (Art. 19, freedom of expression) to undo another right (Art. 3, the right to life, liberty and security of person). While the First Amendment goes behind the UDHR's Art. 19 and Art. 29 regarding "morality, public order and the general welfare in a democratic society," the First Amendment isn't an endless license to plan and execute terrorism. There are Supreme Court decisions that define the limit of speech when it constitutes "incitement of imminent violence". And now we are seeing jurisprudence that establishes that deliberate collusion with terrorist groups to aid and abet them in their violent acts is a similar lawful limitation. Challenge this if you will, but don't pretend it's about "thought crime"; it's about abetting actors and their actions.

    I suspect we will see a lot more attention paid to this hitherto obscure
    article in the coming years, as indeed it contains the remedy for how
    you uphold human rights but prevent those who would undo them for all of
    us from succeeding in their deadly intentions.

    Foust and others keep wanting to amplify what they see as a vulnerability in the nexus between thought and action that should be left unimpeded to ensure there is no "thought crime". But they have only done this by treating Mehanna in isolation from his comrades and their actions, and failing to admit the nature of the conspiracy here.

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