• WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


    (more…)

  • Capital Flight from Kazakhstan with Nazerbayev Ailing?

    Боевой парад, 1 07.05.13
    At Otar Military Range, President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Nursultan Nazarbayev attends combat parade in honour of Fatherland Defenders' Day. Photo by akorda.kz.

    Every time you see the pro-government Russian media come up with headlines like this, you have to ask whether the Kremlin is manipulating the story in order to place pressure on the given stan to extract some concession. What's up? Nazarbayev is continuing to make public appearances and seems sturdy enough.

    On the other hand, Nazarbayev, among the longest-running Soviet-era dictators, is getting on in years, could reasonably be said to be suffering ailments. So planning for the end and the transition government is prudent.

    With Kazakhstan subsidizing some of the think-tanks in Washington that might cover it more critically; with Registan providing either strangely positive or pseudo-critical coverage of Kazakhstan; with even the far more-critical EurasiaNet lapsing into praise of Nazarbayev university and human interest stories too often; it's hard to know what's really happening in Kazakhstan. The independent press is suppressed; journalists and opposition leaders are jailed.

    Yet this headline in fact comes from coverage of a critical report from the Almaty-based think-tank Institute for Political Solutions. Someone else can tell me how they think this institute leans politically or what its backers are but it seems to produce relevant, critical material (it wouldn't exist if it were too critical so it has its limits).

    Meanwhile, some highlights from their interesting report:

    o A large number of social protests in small and medium labor collectives mainly connected to delays in pay;

    o unpopular government initiatives, i.e. reform of the pension system by having citizens of employment age make forced contributions to pension savings — accompanied by law promoting the hiring of older persons;

    o increasing rumors of Nazerbayev's ill health and uncertainty about the transition process;

    o "exit of share holders from the largest Kazakhstani companies"; revival of initiatives to sell the controlling shares of ENRC and possible exit of Vladimir Kim from Kazakhmys;

    o plans for hiring 18,000 people in Atyrau region in Tengiz oil fields and finding jobs for 12,000 people fired from factories — which lets you know about great dislocations in the society.

    So, people have demonstrated:

    o About 1,000 people took part in a peaceful two-day protest  in Jalpaktal in Western Kazakhstan over moving the administration of the district Karas to Jangal which will deprive them of water access; earlier Jalpaktal lost its status as "district center" and therefore lost work places and budgets for social services.

    o Merchants at markets in Almaty protested judicial enforcers who sealed all their containers in their absence on the weekend. Authorities said they were enforcing fire safety regulations passed last November after failure to comply. The move affected 43 markets. Since these regimes use fire regulations to stop all kinds of political and commercial activity randomly and capriciously, it's hard to know what this is really about; it could really be about fire safety or it could be about not getting a sufficient cut from the market mafias, I just don't know, and await others' research.

    o Plumbers and electricities went on strike in Astana because they hadn't received their pay in three months.

    o A strike of builders on the Western Europe-Western China transit corridor; 600-700 workers said that labor regulations were violated, and they were not being paid overtime or getting sick days and being forced to pay for repair of machines o ut of their own salaries.

    o Other strikes in Akyrtobe because pay was not received for four months.

    And so on. All of these problems sound like symptoms of a state that is too involved in the economy. On the other hand, it's a vicious circle, because if the state subsidies and state controls were lifted a lot of these giant enterprises would rationally shrink or die creating more unemployment and unrest. It's the dilemma of all the post-Soviet countries caught between impossible-to-implement socialism and impossible-to-get-working-right capitalism.

    Then you get lovely ideas like this: the akim (governor) of the North Kazakhstan region Samat Eskendirov has decided that the way to get those plants not releasing wages to their workers is to confiscate their land. That sounds like a great solution *cough*. The explanation is that fines over delayed wages were not effective. "At the same time, the akim's iniaitive provokes questions regarding the legal justification, and aside from everything else, lays the ground for raiders seizures of business." Indeed. Why don't plants pay their wages? Well, maybe their wage fund is in Cyprus or something, but it might be that they don't have the profits to pay the excess employed — again, I await further analysis.

    The Communist Popular Party of Kazakhstan in Almaty demonstrated agaginst a fare hike on public transport, high utility cuases and lack of day care places. Communism persists in a place like Kazakhstan with possibly unreasonable socialistic demands because the oil wealth doesn't trickle down. Now I wonder why that is…

    You can read more of their interesting reports here. The April report seems to be here (although I think there's a code error there now) and the summary is here on regnum.ru.

    In part, this is a typical month of protests, and they don't represent any Arab Spring. Even so, they bear watching more closely. Maybe it's these jitters that made Nazarbayev preside over Kazakhstan's first military parade in its history this week. He was also well enough to placate the considerable Russian minority in Kazakhstan by visiting an Easter service last Sunday.

     

     

  • Russian Media Claims US Will “Send Troops” to Kyrgyzstan Over Air Crash: Disinformation

    Why does the Russia media print stuff like this speculating that the US is about to go to war with Kyrgyzstan?!

    If you ever wonder why Eurasian exchange students and new immigrants in America acquire the views they do, ponder the media they read all their lives, were satured with, and still read and believe — it's filled with deliberate lies and tendentious bullshit endlessly inciting hatred and suspicion.

    The Kremlin is the worst of the provocateurs in this business, and the old Soviet disinformation and "agents of influence" apparatus was never dismantled. (Yes, the Daily Mail with its fake story about Saudi reports of involvement in the Boston bombing is right up there with the disinformation, but in their case, it's about sensations to sell newspapers; in the Kremlin's case, it's a state policy to lie and distract.)

    The way these pieces always work there is "plausible deniability" because the Russian outlet is always citing an "expert" from one of the many state-sponsored think-tanks, or even a "Western expert" from among their likeminded networks, or even "sources" close to the government.

    Today, the Russian wire service regnum.ru, which seldom departs from the official Moscow line, has a story with the headline "Plane Crash: US May Declare Kyrgyzstan as 'Outlaw' and Bring in Forces:  Opinion," citing Kirill Stepanyuk, a commentator from comment.kg

    Washington may declare Kyrgyzstan a country of a unrestrained terrorism and introduce US troops into the republic. We cannot forget that for the USA, Central Asia is a strategically important region and now there is the urgent issue of the withdrawl from Kyrgyzstan of the American military base, the same base from which the plane that crashed took off.

    There is no basis for any of these claims.

    According to the New York Times, the military plane crashed near the Kyrgyz village of Chaldovar on the border of Kazakhstan.

    The Times published a picture of the crash site yesterday and quoted US officials as saying the reason for the crash and the status of the five crew members was still not known.

    The Times cited an eyewitness who said that local authorities blocked off the site:

    The news agency cited a local official, Daniyar Zhanykulov, a deputy
    head of a Kyrgyz political party, who said that the open parachute was
    on the ground near the site, but that police officers and firefighters
    found no sign of the crew.

    “It’s a horror, what’s happening,” Mr. Zhanykulov said, according to the
    report. “There are no signs of people. The prosecutor and police
    blocked off the area. And the rubble of the plane is burning. This is a
    mountain area, and fire trucks cannot work.”

    But according to the Russian "specialist" at comment.kg it was all different:

    Really, in the first minutes after the plane crash, there was contradictory information with regard to the fact that at the site of the crash of the fuel plane, neither brigades from the Emergency Ministry nor police and even ambulances were allowed near the sight. Supposedly the territory was surrounded by American military." Whether that was true or not will hardly be able to be established since practically immediately followed a rebuttal of this information. If you reason logically, the Americans learned about trouble on board the fuel plane immediately and after they got an SOS signal likely sent their military people to the fallen liner.

    Of course, it's possible US troops got to a plane that had just taken off from their base a few minutes earlier than local first-responders but I think more than just the American side of this story has to be questioned.

    This crash follows a crash in Afghanistan in which 7 people on board a plane were killed after taking off from Bagram, and "no enemy activity" was reported in the area. Naturally, two planes like this crashing in the same week seems like sabotage, and yet, given the rush with which the US is trying to get troops out of Afghanistan and all the ensuing difficulties, fatigue and nerves and the negligence that comes with them could also be part of the background to these accidents. Or they could just be accidents.

    I don't recall an American military plane ever crashing before in Kyrgyzstan, given the probably thousands of flights that have come out of that based during the Afghan war.  Kyrgyzstan is like other post-Soviet countries with quite a few plane crashes in its record, but this was a plane piloted by Americans from their base, presumably.

    This Russian story is not above trying to fan the flames of in fact non-existent ethnic hatred toward Kyrgyz, merely because the Boston bombers happen to have been born in Kyrgyzstan, as Chechens in the diaspora, although they left more than 10 years ago. Kyrgyzstan appears to have little to do with the Tsarnaev family, other than the fact that Tamerlan Tsarnaev managed to hang on to a Kyrgyz passport and use it to travel to Dagestan undetected supposedly even by Dagestani officials – a story that I think needs more research and more explanation — and those implying that questions and criticisms here are about the Kyrgyz ethnos should knock it off, as it's about the Kyrgyz government, often pressured by Russia, and that's about something different.

    As eyewitnesses describe, the fuel plane began to disintegrate in mid-air and exploded at a height of about two kilomters. Kowing that the USA will contrive to draw some advantage even from terrorist attacks, even in this story some underwater rocks may suddenly appear. Not so long ago, after the explosions in Boston, in the USA the question began to be hyped at length athat the death-dealing "pressure cookers" were prepared by natives of Kyrgyzstan, the brothers Tsarnaev."

    This is fake, as there isn't a single news story in the American press, even in tabloids that sensationalized the story like the Daily News, claiming these were "Kyrgyz" — it was always explained even for the geography-challenged American public that these were Chechens who happened to be born in Kyrgyzstan and left. Kyrgyzstan has as much to do with this story as the Seven Eleven chain store where the bombing suspects bought their Doritos and Red Bull, breakfast of champions.

    Stepanyuk went on to say that the Americans "most likely will not miss a chance" to claim that a missile downed the plane (although there is no such claim) and that they are "capable" of even "sacrificing a plane" for this purpose (and of course the people on it, which of course is an outrageous implication).

    "Washington may declare Kyrgyzstan an outlaw country of unbridled terrorist and introduce their forces into the republic."

    American troops are there already on the base, of course, but there's absolutely nothing like that implied by US officials or even intimated by the big critics of the US involvement in this region.

    EurasiaNet is back to putting falcons on the front page in a week of plane crashes and suspects in the Boston bombing tied to this region, they've either run out of copy or they've decided that this sort of "costumes and colourful objects" folk approach to the region is just the sort of "human interest" their readers are looking for — presumably because they don't get enough of it from National Geographic.

    The Bug Pit doesn't advance any critiques or conspiracy theories in any direction but notes the mystery of the removed yet seemingly re-appearing parachutes.

    Bug writes that the last crash of the KC-135 was in 1991 and fails to explain it wasn't in Kyrgyzstan, then links to Wikipedia, which actually says the last crash was in 1999 and in Germany.

  • Is Foust Flip-Flopping on Kazakhstan?

    In a recent post, Joshua Foust, who now describes himself as a columnist at PBS and *the* editor of Registan.net, turns in a piece that is crafted to look critical of Kazakhstan.

    Is it?

    My comment:

    *Blinks*. Foust has completely flip-flopped here. Only a year ago he
    was writing pieces minimizing the Zhanaozen massacre as a "local labor
    dispute". When Russian and Kazakh journalists who travelled to the scene
    questioned the official death toll, Foust trashed them. He ridiculed a
    prominent scholar of Central Asia Martha Brill Olcott as being too soft
    on the regime — when he himself said the same things. It was
    extraordinary. When I pointed this out, he harangued me and vilified me
    in the most vicious ways, and got all his pals on Registan to do the
    same. When a State Dept. official pointed out that in face he was saying
    the same thing as Olcott, his comment was deleted. I was banned from
    Registan for writing normal criticism of some of their appalling
    fellow-travelling. Author after author have taken the regime's side and
    I've filled up my blog with critiques.

     Now, all of a sudden, this piece.

     But it's cleverly done. Because after acting as if he is talking as a
    savvy fellow about what "we all know" to be Kazakhstan's PR flaking, he
    then tucks this paragraph into the piece making it seem as if
    Kazakhstan, on the eve of talks again about Iran and its nuclear
    program, is some sort of valuable honest broker or successful convener
    and diplomatic force (it's not):

     And, then, there is its steady rise as a global nuclear mediator.
    Kazakhstan might be the only place where Iran and the P5+1 can disagree
    amicably: Kazakhstan is near Iran, and it has recognized Iran's right to
    a civilian nuclear program. And the West might consider Kazakhstan's
    own nuclear legacy a suggestive model for Iran — a point that President
    Nazarbayev made plainly in a New York Times op-ed a year ago.

     And a few other lines like that — "Nazarbayev is genuinely popular"
    — which essentially track that very PR puffery from the regime — and
    it's as if he's made a sandwich, and hidden these pickles in it.

    I don't know what to make of this seeming turnaround, but it might be
    because he's no longer working for John Kerry's think tank American
    Security Project and is free to take another line, or he just feels this
    is what is fashionable now — it won't be the first time he's flipped
    and flopped in breathtaking ways that not only is adoring fans don't
    ever seem to notice, but which more clear-eyed readers hesitate to point
    out for fear of his vicious harassment on Twitter.

    ***

    Click on the side under the "Kazakhstan" topics and see my critiques of pieces that have been on Registan.net about Kazakhstan.

  • What Can We Expect from the Talks on Iran in Kazakhstan?

    Well, not much.

    The round of talks is between Iran and the so-called P5 or permanent five members of the UN Security Coucil — Russia, China,
    France, the UK, and the US — plus an aspiring member of the Security Council who has been an elected member in the past — Germany. It's good they're having this in Almaty and not making these diplomats hoof it to the artificially-constructed capital of Astana, which is inconvenient, I'm told.

    Why don't I expect much?

    Well, this below gives you an idea — from the Daily Press Briefing at the State Department yesterday.

    I just don't think there's much new here, from either the US or Iran, and that Kazakhstan's presence doesn't add much.

    To be sure, the Central Asian countries deal more effectively with Iran than the US. That is, they have their quarrels and boycotts and temporary cessation of rail projects (like Turkmenistan) and make-ups and problems, too, but nothing like the US.

    Whenever the I-ranter comes to one of these countries, you never hear him spouting about the Jews, the Great Satan, the need to wipe Israel off the map, the scourge of Western civilization, etc. but he just talks normally and boringly like a Soviet bureaucrat about potash or rail ties, and then sometimes they'll have a carefully-choreographed spring ritual for Novruz, and maybe he'll give presents to the other potentates. But the rhetoric is completely dialed down.

    What is Kazakhstan's value-add? Well, in some ways, maybe it's the new hegemon on Central Asia, and not Uzbekistan anymore, simply because it gets along with Russia better (has a big Russian minority), its economy is doing better, and Western oil companies get along better with it than, say, Turkmenistan.

    Oh, and remember WikiLeaks?

    "Kazakhstan Open to Increase Pressure on Iran".

    Kazakhstan is considered some sort of "no nukes" state that will spread the non-proliferation idea to others. But I think that's to miss the unique circumstances that got Astana to part with its nukes: the Russian deal made at the collapse of the Soviet Union, that essentially, in exchange for your sovereignty, you have to give us your nukes. That was an offer they couldn't refuse. Kazakhstan's deal seems to have worked out better than, say, Belarus', but then, Kazakhstan is in the Soviet Re-Union efforts Putin has re-constructed and others aren't.

    Here they are at State, fumbling around…

    QUESTION: The talks start tomorrow in Almaty —

    MR. VENTRELL: Yeah.

    QUESTION: — for the first time in a few months. And Catherine
    Ashton’s office today said that they’re a serious effort to try and
    break stalemate and get to – get things moving. Can you tell us what the
    United States or the what the P5+1 is bringing to the table that might
    make Iran rethink?

    MR. VENTRELL: Well, without getting into the details, because
    we need to let the negotiators do their jobs, we do have a serious,
    updated proposal. And we hope that the Iranian regime will make the
    strategic decision to come to the talks that start tomorrow in
    Kazakhstan prepared to discuss substance so that there can be progress
    in addressing the international community’s concerns. You heard
    Secretary Kerry talk about this this morning, and we do have a serious
    updated proposal, and our proposal does include reciprocal measures that
    encourage Iran to make concrete steps to begin addressing the
    international community’s concerns.

    But beyond that, I think we really need to let the negotiators – our
    team is out there. This will begin tomorrow morning their time, and we
    need to let them do their work.

    QUESTION: There are reports out there that among the measures
    on the Western side, if you want to call it that, could be a lifting
    sanctions on the gold and metal trades. Would that be something that you
    could —

    MR. VENTRELL: Beyond saying that we have reciprocal measures
    that encourage Iran to make concrete steps, I’m really not going to get
    into the details. We need to let our negotiators work.

    QUESTION: You said, “serious, updated,” not seriously updated, right?

    MR. VENTRELL: A serious, updated proposal.

    QUESTION: Okay. So that doesn’t imply that it’s been dramatically altered from previous negotiations last year?

    MR. VENTRELL: I mean, it’s serious —

    QUESTION: And updated.

    MR. VENTRELL: — and it’s also updated.

    QUESTION: Okay.

    QUESTION: Do you —

    QUESTION: You were saying that —

    QUESTION: And all the other ones were serious too, right?

    MR. VENTRELL: We’ve always come to the table ready to engage seriously.

    QUESTION: All right. So if you were to judge the difference
    between this negotiation and the last one, the actual offer on the table
    isn’t dramatically different than previously?

    MR. VENTRELL: There’s nothing more that I’m going to say about the offer on the table. Let’s let our negotiators work.

    Go ahead.

    QUESTION: You mentioned reciprocal measures to —

    MR. VENTRELL: Reciprocal measures, yeah.

    QUESTION: — to help Iran take the decision?

    MR. VENTRELL: Yeah.

    QUESTION: So some things will happen before Iran takes a drastic measure on UN resolutions or on stopping its nuclear program or whatever?

    MR. VENTRELL: I’m just not going to get into it beyond what I said before.

    QUESTION: Well, generally, do you feel optimistic going into
    these talks? Is the United States hopeful that there might be a change
    in the Iranian position?

    MR. VENTRELL: I mean, we want them to make the strategic
    decision. We’re obviously – as the Secretary said, there is time and
    space for diplomacy, but it’s not infinite time, and we clearly want –
    we’ve come with a serious proposal, and we want to – we hope that the
    Iranians have come with the strategic decision that they’re going to
    change their behavior.

    QUESTION: But the fact – excuse me – but the fact that they
    are using these new centrifuges, dramatically trying to increase their
    enrichment capability and purity, doesn’t necessarily signal that
    they’re ready to negotiate an end to their nuclear program.

    MR. VENTRELL: Well, as Toria said last week, that’s a tactic they’ve used in the past coming into talks. And let’s see what happens.

    QUESTION: You think it’s a tactic, or you think they’re trying
    to build a nuclear – I thought you thought that the reason they were
    using these centrifuges is to build a nuclear weapon?

    MR. VENTRELL: I mean, clearly we have concerns about the
    Iranian program. But beyond that, all I’ll say is that that’s something
    that they’ve done in the past in the lead up to talks. Not necessarily
    one specific action or another, but that seems to be part of their
    strategy.

    Okay.

    QUESTION: Procedurally, what will happen tomorrow? Is it just
    one day of talks, and then everyone goes away to consider their
    positions? Or is there a possibility it could go to two, or —

    MR. VENTRELL: The talks in the past have sometimes gone into a second day. Let’s see what happens.

    Samir.

    QUESTION: Do you have a readout on why Under Secretary Sherman is going to Israel?

    MR. VENTRELL: I don’t have any information on that. I’ll have to look into it.

    QUESTION: You guys put out a statement.

    MR. VENTRELL: Oh, we have already put it out?

    QUESTION: Yes.

    MR. VENTRELL: I’m sorry. I —

    QUESTION: She’s going to brief them on the topics. (Laughter.)

    MR. VENTRELL: Anything else?

    QUESTION: Wait. But you put out a statement that she will go Israel —

    QUESTION: Oh. Is she going to brief them?

    QUESTION: — Saudi Arabia, and —

    QUESTION: Is she going to Israel and these countries to brief them on the talks?

    MR. VENTRELL: Okay. Guys, I didn’t realize in this thing we
    put out announcing her travel that it included that detail. Let me look
    into it. I’ll have some more information for you tomorrow.

    QUESTION: Do you have the statement?

    MR. VENTRELL: I don’t have it in my book right now.

    QUESTION: I’ll forward it to you.

    MR. VENTRELL: Okay? Thanks.

  • Will Unrest Break Out in Central Asia or the Caucasus?

    Turkmens on Flag Day
    Turkmens performing in state-orchestrated parade on Flag Day in Ashgabat. Photo by Golden Age, State News Agency of Turkmenistan.

    No.

    At least, not right now, and probably not next week.

    Oh, there might be another wave of pogroms as there was in Osh in Kyrgyzstan in June 2010 where hundreds of people were killed, mainly Uzbeks, and thousands displaced, but it might be in some other setting, not Kyrgyzstan's south, but who knows, maybe Tajikistan, as police shoot-outs of suspected terrorists have occurred regularly there since the civil war was over.

    Or there might be another massacre of workers as there were in Zhanaozen, Kazakhstan in 2011, but probably not that again, and not there.

    That's just it — whenever unrest does break out, whether in Andijan in 2005 in Uzbekistan, where hundreds were massacred or in Osh as I mentioned in 2010, the authorities make sure it is tamped down very well after that, making numerous arrests, silencing or jailing journalists and bloggers and citizen reporters. So that's that, we get it.

    Except, we don't. Because unrest does occur, sometimes with large numbers of people, and it surprises those who aren't prepared. Like the overthrow of Bakiyev in Kyrgyzstan in 2012, which shows signs of Russian engineering, but which couldn't have succeeded if there hadn't been underlying social disatisfaction with energy price hikes (induced by Russia) and other deeper and long-term economic and social malaise.

    Nobody was ready when 20,000 or even 60,000 people came out on the main squares of Moscow and other Russian cities after Putin's orchestrated re-election, and nobody who got enthusiastic about the prospects then was ready for the severity of the crackdown that is now inevitably coming.

    So yeah, unrest, but they tamp it down but then, they don't. So you have to be ready, and you have to have some theory about how society changes in these countries — and that would not be "due to Internet penetration" or "development of the middle class" — the mantras rehearsed by State Department officials and pundits worldwide. If only Internet saturation reaches X point that it reached in, oh, Iran or Azerbaijan (where unrest is reaching the thousands now in demonstration), why we might see those droids we're looking for.

    But oh, remember This is What Can Happen To You, when Katy Pearce and Sarah Kendzior said about Azerbaijan that publicizing the news of the crackdown on Internet bloggers would chill the use of the Internet? Make people not want to go online or be very careful about their activities online? Remember how I was browbeaten to death for daring to suggest there was an Internet surge in Uzbekistan? But I countered this and said it was an Internet campaign that got the "donkey bloggers" released and I countered their theories of the efficacy of "networked authoritiarianism" (Rebeccah McKinnon's term) here and here (Is There an Arab Spring Bounce in Azerbaijan?) and then here for Central Asia. That is, I don't have ANY illusions that any Twitter revos are coming soon to these countries to utterly turn them over from head to foot, but I do ask: Why Can't We Say Azerbaijani Protest is Influenced by the Arab Spring and Social Media? Of course you can, and you don't need me to say this, you now have the released Emin Milli on the conference circuit to say it.

    So last week, we were told at the OSCE Internet 2013 conference by Milli, the former political prisoner and blogger who just served 15 days in jail for his chronicling of demonstrations over the death of a soldier in the army, that there are one million sign-ups on Facebook. That's a lot of people for this small country. Socialbakers, the industry source on Facebook sign-ups, says there are more than a million now.

    Says Socialbakers:

    Our social networking statistics show that Facebook penetration in Azerbaijan
    is 12.20% compared to the
    country's population and 23.97% in relation
    to number of Internet users. The total number of FB users in Azerbaijan
    is reaching 1013080 and grew by more than
    147280 in the last 6 months

    Internet penetration was reported as 44% in 2010 by the ITU; then it was reported last year as 68% and is growing. So it's a lot, and people who say that Azeris are scared off the Internet by oppression were wrong, but people who say that such large percentages of Internet penetration will lead to revolution are also wrong, as the authorities are still very skillful in picking out people to coopt, intimidate or jail and torture as needed to keep the peace — especially for those Western oil and gas companies coming in to develop the Shah Deniz II fields.

    The number of people on the square in Azerbaijan isn't one million and isn't 28,000 but more like 2,000 or 200 sometimes, depending on the topic.

    Now, Central Asia is much, much more "backward" or behind when it comes to the Internet, let alone Facebook, and has not had the kind of "Youtube protests" about local official corruption that then leads to street demonstrations — although the phenomenon still can be found here and there even in these countries.

    So you have to be ready, as these things can jump the synapse — significant unrest/revolution/unheavals in Azerbaijan would obviously affect other neighbouring countries and so on.

    Even so, we're been getting for years now articles that tell us not to worry, everything is boringly stable in Central Asia, and implying that anyone who crafts any other scenario is just hopelessly mired in Twitter mania and Jeff Jarvis-style over-romanticization of social media's power (that would not be me) or just not "getting it" about the Arab Spring, which didn't turn  out to be "all that" in the end as we well know (and this article, Aftermath of a Revolution, in the International Herald Tribune really sums it up well).

    Even so, along comes Sarah Kendzior to tell us that everything is boringly stable: The Curse of Stability. Kendzior, who, together with Katy Pearce, in an article they'd probably like to forget now, told us how cautious we must all be about Azerbaijan (and the big crackdown and big sleep could be still coming there anyway as well all know, but each time the concentric circles grow).

    This article was kind of written already on Kendzior's political home base, Registan.net, by Myles Smith: Central Asia: What Not to Look For, datelined January 2013.

    Kendzior doesn't link to her colleague but should have, as he put down the markers for the prediction businesss, and I couldn't disagree, although as I said, you really need to have better theories of change and a more hopeful expectation about the people in these countries and their need to have a better life than they do under their current dictatorships.

    I could answer Kendzior in detail but then, I already have in the past, and did on another article exactly a year ago by another specialist, Scott, Radnitz, Waiting for Spring, who told us "not to hold our breaths" and compare Central Asia to the Arab Spring — and it's a good thing we didn't, as we'd be as blue as a UN peacekeeper's helmet now.

    Even so, I'll just cut and paste below the fold what I put in the comments to Radnitz's peace again, because it still applies. And keep in mind that what the Arab Spring had was Al Jazeera (not WikiLeaks or Anonymous, silly, that's just self-serving hacker twaddle). Central Asia doesn't have that; it has Russian TV. So, you get what you get, even if you add Facebook.

    (more…)

  • Isolated Talking Kazakh Elephants Or the Controlling Hand of Registan

    Stamp_of_Kazakhstan_605
    Kazakh postage stamp of Batyr, the talking elephant in Kazakhstan.

    Michael Hancock-Parmer strikes again.  When we last heard from him, he was trashing the Russian journalist who covered the Zhanaozen massacre critically in an appalling post that earned a reprimand from his former professor, who was then "disciplined" by Registan dominatrix Sarah Kendzior into apologizing and admitting she had a lot to learn about becoming a better human being (!). Some people withdraw from conflicts with Registan because the price is very high — in academia, there is great fear of losing scarce positions, and the Registanis are horribly vindictive and will complain to people's bosses if they don't like their criticism.

    I got into a side convio with H-P in email which he begged me not to publish, so I won't, but needless to say, he proved himself to be an ass.

    Now this contribution from Hancock-Parmer, urging the Kazakh people not to Latinize their alphabet but to use…Arabic script.

    I'm giving this the "Batyr" award, for the poor "talking elephant" that "died from an overdose of soporifics" (like reading too much Registan!). Everyone convinced themselves that the elephant could really talk because he mastered a few memes and gestures on cue and was rewarded. It was convincing!

    Born on July 23, 1969 at Almaty Zoo, Batyr lived his entire life in the Karaganda Zoo in Karaganda, of ex-USSR Kazakhstan. He died in 1993 having never seen or heard another elephant. Batyr was the offspring of once-wild Indian elephants (a subspecies of the Asian elephant). Batyr's mother "Palm" and father "Dubas"[3] had been presented to Kazakhstan's Almaty Zoo by the then Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru.

    Telling people in another country what kind of script they should use in their language — that's bad enough, and ranks right up there with Katy Pearce screaming at people on Twitter to use a certain hashtag, and if they don't use it the way she likes — even allowing for the fact that they may be regime tools — she tells them to "get off the Internet".

    But telling them not to use Latin and instead, to use Arabic, for pseudo-scholarly reasons has got to be even worse — and it reminds me of the Batyr story because by mimicking humans on demand, Batyr in fact was isolated from other real elephants — and the humans were fooled.

    Batyr, whose name is a Turkic word meaning Dashing Equestrian, Man of Courage or Athlete,
    was first alleged to speak just before New Year's Day in the winter of
    1977 when he was eight years old. Zoo employees were the first to notice
    his "speech", but he soon delighted zoo-goers at large by appearing to
    ask his attendants for water and regularly praising or (infrequently)
    chastising himself.

    Language is a natural and organic thing, and people pretty much speak it as they wish, except for the French who police anglicisms. Chastising people into speaking language a certain way — awful!

    Kazakhstan of course has a long and troubled history with the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union and has a large Russian-speaking minority. So putting their Kazakh language into Cyrrilic script made a certain amount of sense but it was obviously coerced. What would the Kazakh language be if there had never been a Russia, or a kinder, gentler Russia? Well, there wasn't, so it is what it is…

    But when Kazakhstan got its independence from the Soviet Union — or more importantly, from Russia — it gradually began to de-Russify and began to join the rest of the world and try to modernize. I don't buy the state's own propaganda about this at all, and it's a very rocky road.

    Yet I do follow Kazakhstan sufficiently, including the various independent and state tweeters, to know that if they have to chose something besides Cyrrilic, it will be Latin, not Arabic letters. That's because the language of the Internet, like it or not, is English, and a lot of the computer and Internet terms borrowed in other languages come from English. God knows, for example, why Russians talk about "follovat'" on Twitter instead of "sledit'" which has less characters, but they do because it "feels right" to them as they'll tell you.

    Kazakhstan is a secular Muslim nation where the regime controls religious expression brutally, and gets its hand on the Muslim communities in particular. So that means a turn to the Arabic world might not be for them.

    But more to the point, just because they are Muslim doesn't mean they feel the need to turn toward Arabic. In doing so, they would isolate themselves further from Eurasia, Europe and the Internet lingua franca and I don't see any evidence that they want to do that.

    Young people simply reply naturally that they use Latin because that's what English uses and they want to learn and use English.

    This kind of prudish, controlling prescriptiveness for people's language has just got to go.

    Only a fussy little Registani nerd like Michael Hancock-Parmer could have "concerns" about another nation writing their alphabet as they please (!):

    I’m writing this post to share some concerns about the Latinization program for Kazakhstan announced by President Nazarbaev in connection with other progressive changes to the Republic.

    The Too Long; Didn’t Read analysis of what I’m about to write is
    simple: I am not as excited for Latinization as I used to be. I am not
    forecasting doom or anything like it. Nor am I saying that this is all
    part of some conspiracy or weird power grab on the part of Nazarbaev.
    No. I am rather trying to share some concerns that might interest
    Registan’s readers.

    I have reservations that it will adversely affect Kazakhstan’s citizens
    in their efforts to better understand their past and the formation of
    the their current situation.

    I'm the first to say that Russian is still a lingua-franca more than English is in this region; it's the poor man's lingua-franca because not everyone can get a Soros grant and go to a Western course or conference and perfect their conversational English. There is that large minority as well. If anything, we should be concerned about these people being forced to leave their comfort level to use Latin  — but then, they're being asked to do that for the Kazakh language, not the Russian language.

    What this terrible affectation about Kazakhs needing to "better understand their past" isn't really about "richness of literature" in the Soviet era (?!) but about the fetishization of Islam that is common among the New Realists in Washington and New York in general and the Registanis in particular. There's an entire mindset and contrived narrative they have acquired which goes like this:

    o There is this "they" out there who exaggerate the threat of Islam and hate Muslims — be they neo-cons or traditional conservatives or Blue Dog Democrats or whatever — and "we" have to counter them;

    o We are the smart people surrounded by idiots, so we will embrace the vibrancy and diversity of Islam and show "them" up to be bigots and haters

    o In fact, if we don't stop this criticism of Islamic countries (which we believe to be hatred) then we are actually harming our nation's security because the US will "bomb Iran" and we will be in WWIII;

    o The enemy of our enemy is our friend — conservatives and parts of the Obama Administration we don't like are too distrustful of theocratic states, so we'll be nice to them to show how cool we are.

    I find this all very unscholarly, and I find that when there is this mindset, you can't get new facts and impressions to go through — it's like trying to get the miniature golf ball through the rotating blades of the windmill — very hard.

    Sure, Latinization is contrived, like the very capital of Astana itself and lots of Nazarbayev state-building projects. Yet if people don't want to use it and want to stick with Cyrrilic, they will, and it will be hard to stop them.

    There's another project lurking under Michael Hannover-Parmer's tender ministrations here — it's sort of like pan-Turkism. He wants to prove how close the Central Asian peoples are to each other:

    In essence, “Arabic-script Kazakh” is nearly a contradiction in terms.
    When written in Arabic script, Kazakh, Tatar, Bashkir, and Karakalpak
    appear much more identical then then do in the current Cyrillic
    alphabets. Moreover, their close relationship with Uzbek, Uyghur,
    Kyrgyz, Turkmen, and Ottoman-Turkish was far more apparent. Though much
    ink has been spilled attacking the awkwardness of Arabic at correctly
    carrying Turkic language, the longevity of the alphabet must be
    re-considered rather than seen as a sign of backwardness or Oriental
    decadence. Rather, the very limitations of the Arabic script (i.e.
    writing of the various Turkic vowels) might be considered as its
    strength.

    H-P tries to justify his own diktat in deciding what is "best" for a people and trying to back it up with tld;r "scholarship" by pointing out that Stalin was the one to manipulate languages and alphabets and narratives. Yes, we get all that. Yes, they are contrived. Yes, people will work their way out of it. But hardly with Arabic script. And…who says "integrationist processes" are really naturally occuring? They don't naturally occur in the EU, either…

    H-P also has a touching concern for the "treasury of work written during the Soviet Union". Well, sure. No people should burn their books, even from discredited communist pasts. But, well, if there isn't a demand for them, there isn't. We don't all demand that even the classics be transcripted into the English of Beowulf or Shakespeare. Language is a dynamic and living thing, even if tyrants monkey with it.

    Fortunately, nobody anywhere is likely to pay the slightest attention to this fussy fellow — read the reply in the comments from a young man who simply points out that QWERTY is what is there to use, and that's what he is using. Oh, and there's this:

    Uzbekistan moved from Arabic alphabet to Latin in 1920′s because
    Uzbekistan because a secular country and wanted to break with Islam.
    That move made most of the religious literature instantly inaccessible
    that helped to establish a secular society.

    Whatever you want to say about Sovietization — and I'm happy to criticize it all day long — there's something to be said for secularism even of the Vladimir Posner/Soviet sort as compared to radical Islam. People shouldn't be cut off from their national religious literature, but there's no need to artificially crowbar it back into place, either.

    But as I said, the fetishizing of Islam that this crowd indulges in brings them to this sort of untenable position.

    I'd like Kazakhstan — if it is getting all national and independent — to a) come to a true independence which would mean independence of Nazarbayevism and even batyrism; and b) be tolerant of Russians and Russian-speakers in its own land even if it wants to distance itself from Moscow, generally a good thing. I think this process of Latinization might take so long that it is unlikely to harm the Russian population, but it bears watching.

     

  • The Inherent Contradictions of Registan’s Narrative

    A video of the massacre by the now shuttered K+ Internet video news site.

    What a difference a year makes.

    A year ago, Joshua Foust of American Security Project was arguing in the Atlantic that the massacre of workers in Zhanaozen didn't matter that much, because it was a local conflict, unrelated to any terrorist group, and not really a threat to the Nazarbayev regime.

    I debated him on the Atlantic comments; so did Nate Schenkkan, then writing for EurasiaNet and now at Freedom House.

    Foust's minimizing of the dreadful events of Zhanaozen was consistent with his overall Real-Politik theories summarized in his Why Human Rights Aren't Paramount at PBS (which I also debated in the comments.) Indeed, the theories of pragmatism ultimately conceding the status quo for the region's regimes is something Registan writers are known for — a concept I call "The Small Game".

    Foust, a former defense contractor and now an avid apologist for drones as the "smart" weapon, is known for his wildly nasty attacks on numerous human rights leaders, activists, and pundits who don't agree with him.

    Given how much he had downplayed Zhanaozen, I confronted him, noting that his position was little different from a respected regional specialist, Martha Brill Olcott, who also didn't think that the regime would be threatened by any "Arab Spring" type movements — whom he derided.

    I came to her defense; Foust replied savagely; a State Department official who defended me and said I was only defending Olcott found his comment was removed — developments I summarized here.

    I continued to press for more investigation of the Zhanaozen events, just like all the major human rights groups. I interviewed a brave Russian journalist who had covered the massacre and had one eyewitness who said there were many more bodies of victims than officially reported; this was the question many were asking at the time.

    Foust's persistent minimization of the massacre and his mean-spirited dismissal of the Russian journalist earned him lengthy takedowns from a notorious character named Mark Ames who is little better in his own track record. In a parallel development, another Registan writer, Michael Hancock-Parmer, bashed the woman Russian journalist in shameful ways which got a pile-on in the comments. Then a former professor of this author, Elise Anderson, took him to task for his questionable methods, and strikingly, Sarah Kendzior came along and evenutally creepily maneuvered the woman — who in fact was spot on — into conceding she might be wrong and ostensibly shouldn't have publicly harmed her student's online rep by dissing him. Say, does that method sound familiar!

    We may never know how many people in fact were killed in Zhanaozen, although there do not seem to be 70.

    But the events unleashed tidal ways of repression with grave consequences in ways that I think none of us had conceived when were were obsessing about the initial event itself and the body count — on both sides of the debate.

    Nate's account — based on his eye-witness reporting and monitoring of the trial of Kozlov — provides all the chilling details:

    In the last year, the government has moved relentlessly and methodically
    to crush the country’s already limited civic life. Hundreds of locals
    in Zhanaozen and nearby Aktau were detained, and many of them likely
    tortured. Thirty-four oil workers were convicted of organizing the riots
    in a mass trial where detailed allegations of torture were ignored. The
    government investigation swept up a whole slew of civil society and
    opposition activists as material witnesses and possible defendants,
    before settling on Vladimir Kozlov.

    Kozlov, leader of the unregistered opposition party Alga, and two
    codefendants were convicted in October of “inciting social hatred”
    against the government in order to create conflict in Zhanaozen. Somehow
    Kozlov—who even in the prosecution’s conspiratorial version of events
    never distributed or advocated the use of weapons—has become the one
    responsible for unarmed protesters being shot in the back. His trial,
    which Freedom House monitored and reported on,
    was marked by procedural irregularities and built around the testimony
    of his former fellow activists, many of whom had said they were tortured
    in their own trials.

    I met Kozlov myself at the OSCE's Human Dimense Implementation Meeting before his arrest in 2010, and even then, the Kazakh ambassador and head of delegation interrupted his speech at the meeting and threatened him with charges of "inciting violence" merely because in his remarks, he said that when the opposition eventually came to power, it would address all the massive human rights violations of the regime. "We will come for you," he said — and by that he didn't mean any violent reprisal, but trials for their human rights crimes.

    As Schenkkan notes, despite the fact the government tried some people said to be responsible for the shootings, there is a very incomplete response:

    The government of Kazakhstan has highlighted the fact that some local
    officials were tried on corruption charges, and a handful of police
    officers were found guilty of “exceeding authority” for their role in
    the Zhanaozen events. But specific and well-substantiated allegations of
    torture went uninvestigated. Despite President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s
    initial pledge that there would be an independent international inquiry,
    no such probe has materialized, even after the UN human rights
    commissioner explicitly requested it. One year later, we still do not
    know who gave the order to use live fire on unarmed protesters, and
    dozens of officers who participated in the shootings have faced no
    charges at all.

    And as he notes, this has served to unleash a huge crackdown on civil society, such as it is, in ways I think we didn't anticipate a year ago:

    Now the Kozlov conviction is being used to shutter media outlets associated with the opposition across the country on grounds of “extremism.” The verdict held that Kozlov led an “organized criminal group” funded by exiled oligarch Mukhtar Ablyazov, establishing a guilt-by-association logic that could be used to punish practically anyone engaged in civic or political activism. The outlets that are being closed, like the newspaper Respublika, the online news site Stan TV, and the satellite broadcaster K+, have interacted regularly with all prominent figures in political life or civil society in Kazakhstan. Kazakh human rights activists are talking grimly about their country sliding toward conditions associated with Uzbekistan, long regarded as the most ruthless and aggressively repressive government in the region.

    Yet the Real-Politik writers at Registan express no regrets or make no apologies for their minimizing of the events there — Foust even said that if in fact 70 were found to be killed, maybe the regime would be shaken, but it wouldn't be by a few dozen — a curious algorithm.

    Now, Registan is taking the usual star turn, pretending to be a platform for discussion and debate, and providing space to the Kazakh ambassador, who naturally downplays all the negative events and attempts to spin them madly.

    Giving this Kazakh official space is, I think the sort of thing most NGO advocacy organizations or even policy organizations might be reluctant to do — the very frame lends a patina of legitimacy the regime certainly doesn't have. You can always call a dictator mouthpiece for a comment and quote it in your own article without having to yield your platform to them in faux free debate while people like Kozlov sit in cold jail cells. It's bad faith, really, to do that.

    Meanwhile, Shenkkan, who obviously cares about Kozlov and did everything possible to monitor and report on his unfair trial and the other negative developments in Kazakhstan, regretably lends legitimacy to Registan's bad faith by submitting a guest post to Registan. (Note: the Kazakh ambassador gets his own byline in a separate box as "an opinion piece"; Shenkkan has to fit in under Nathan Hamm's byline as a "guest post". Difference in rank!)

    Again, Registan is not a place of good faith or fairness, but a place very much of bad faith when it silences critics and defenders of critics who are legitimate, and pretends that's alright. Shenkkan shouldn't be part of that methodology or that company and lending the site the patina of legitimacy himself — he was always seized on and quoted or offered space by the Registanis when they blocked or ignored or savaged other EurasiaNet writers and human rights advocates simply because he was a nice guy with really great regional knowledge who likes to get along with people.

    In discussing Kazakhstan's national narrative, Foust now cunningly shifts his own narrative from one that minimizes Zhanaozen, or trashes Russian journalists trying to cover the atrocity, or people who confronted him with his minimization, and starts chiding Kazakhstan in dulcet tones about how it is not behaving like a mature, young wealthy state should be. The main message of the piece, in the undertow: Nazzy is bad on human rights, but who cares, he's opening up the mineral rights to foreigners again.

    Last year, we were told that Russian journalists exaggerated things, "human rights are not paramount," the regime would stand, and human rights nervous nellies were too idealistic. Now, says Foust regarding the accusation that Respublika, Kozlov's publication, is "extremist" that it is not worthy of the regime:

    Put simply, such an unnecessary attack on Kazakhstan’s still-fledgling
    political opposition is not the behavior of a growing, confident, young,
    dynamic country, which is what Kazakhstan clearly wants to be. It is
    the behavior of a weak, insecure, terribly afraid regime. Which could
    potentially be dangerous in the long run, not only in the case of
    another Zhanaozen massacre but more subtle forms of repression like
    further limiting speech and setting harsh limits on public gatherings.

    It's not clear how subtle forms of repression are "more dangerous" than massacres, but let's welcome Foust to the Newly-Acquired Conscience Club because now he's scolding the regime about human rights lagging the way he used to scold other people for calling out the regime or his soft touch. I guess that's because it's okay to say these things now…or something….

    Foust only has to plant a few dog whistles in his column to get the usual suspects turning out in the comments and basically sniping at the opposition, their newspapers, and castigating the very notion of any alturistic international community, because it is only interested in resource extraction, to hear them tell it. Mission accomplished!

     

     

     

     

  • Authorities in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan Install Video Surveillance Cameras in Mosques

    Carpetblogger
    Largest mosque in Central Asia near Kipchak, Turkmenistan, can hold 20,000. Photo by Carpetblogger, 2005, who said it was empty at mid-day.

    This is disturbing news — citing Radio Ozodlik, fergananews.com reports that video surveillance cameras have been installed in all the mosques in Namagan.

    "There are 30 mosques in Namagan, and cameras have been installed in all of them, and not just one camera but several in various parts of the buildings and in the courtyards," a source told Radio Ozodlik in Uzbekistan. "Imams say that this is done in order to protect believers from thieves, of which there are simply too many."

    Thieves? Really? What do they steal, shoes?

    Ozodlik asked the local Muslim administration about the cameras, but they didn't have any explanation. Another imam had a more plausible idea:

    According to the famous imam Rashod-kori Kamolov, the reason is the intent by the local authorities to watch what is going on during prayers, to follow what imams are saying to believers, and see whether young people are attending prayers.

    Uzbekistan has the largest population of Muslims in the former Soviet Union and Namangan is the third-largest city.

    Says Wikipedia, while noting everywhere that "citations are needed," 

    At the time of the Russian occupation, Namangan was a center of Islamic learning, with 20 madrassahs and over 600 mosques…Since Uzbekistan independence in 1991, Namangan has gained a reputation for Islamic awakening, with many mosques and schools funded by charity organizations from Middle Eastern countries, including the conservative Wahabi sect from Saudi Arabia. This has also translated into political opposition against the secular government of Uzbekistan.

    Kazakh authorities are doing the same thing, says fergananews.com.

    Authorities in Alma-Aty have placed surveillance cameras in all the mosques there. Here's what the mayor says, tengrinews.kz reports:

    "We place great attention on the struggle against the propaganda of terrorism and extremism. In some mosques, video surveillance camers have been installed. The akim of the Medeus district has taken the initiative into his own hands. Together with businessmen, he is placing surveillance cameras in public places. We also call for them. In 2012, about 2,000 video surveillance camers will be put throughout the city," Esimov explains.

    Do the Chinese help them with this?

    Recently, the Kremlin made a big fetish of placing video cameras in all the polling stations. Far from ensuring transparency against fraud, this was a dodge by a tyrant to in fact put pressure on voters — and actually accomplish nothing, as voting fraud doesn't always take place literally in front of a camera placed by an "urn," as the Russians aptly call their ballot boxes where their votes are thrown away and turned to ash.

    It seems like a bad idea to put cameras in mosques and intrude on people's privacy and it likely won't really stop any terrorist plots anyway. What terrorist is going to plot in front of a camera? And if the imam is giving an incendiary homily that attracts young people, haven't you already lost those young people if they found it attractive and you didn't educate them in peace and tolerance long before that?

    These issues can be complicated — there is a debate raging about the New York Police Department running surveillance on Muslim believers even outside their jurisdiction, in neighboring states. They didn't do this through cameras, but through police informants and spies going to prayers and even going on a youth rafting trip. It seems to me the Muslim communities who have been invaded in this fashion are right to be indignant and even demand justice for the violation of their rights.

    On the other hand, there are some mosques  terrorists have attended and gotten their "spiritual guidance" there, or have been "talent-spotted" by extremists frequenting the mosque, like the Brixton Mosque in the UK, attended by the "shoe bomber". But if this is a mosque attended by 500 people, why should the fact that one of them turned violent justify video camera surveillance or police spies?

    I don't think ensuring "happy childhoods" and "ending poverty" are going to fix terrorism, nor will the violation of basic civil rights. There does need to be a debate on this.  I think rather than having Muslim indoctrination films and police spies, probably the police have to hire Muslims from new immigrant communities just like the police has always done from time immemorial from immigrant communities, and put them in charge of community affairs so that they deal with issues in an appropriate manner.

    We always have a police van outside our church during Mass on Sundays. Maybe the police show up for every large gathering of hundreds of people? Or maybe they are just there to handle the inevitable old person fainting from a heart attack or stroke? Since everyone knows the policemen and they are members of the parish themselves no one seems to think anything of it.

    But it's vexsome that just because of one incident that occurred last year, our church now has to be locked up promptly after the 12:00 so that no visits can be made during the afternoon. The reason is that a homeless man attacked an usher with a stick one day when he was asked to leave. The church fathers had been fairly lenient allowing homeless to sit in church, but once once of them lunges at someone with a stick they stopped their leniency.

    Another thing that both Central Asian tyrants do (like southern preachers?) is build giant mega-places of worship. Mega-churches are a time-honoured American tradition and I'm all for them, it's freedom of religion. More than anything, they seem to go with the doctrine of "prosperity," i.e. that Jesus will help you get rich.

    In Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, they seem to be borrowing both a page of "Soviet gigantism" as well as hoping to drive believers all in to one big place where they can keep tabs on them better.

    "Soviet gigantism," for those who don't keep up with dictator chic, are these giant elaborate buildings in the former Soviet Union designed to dwarf the individual and make him seem insignificant. They're especially effective if they have huge avenues and squares all around them to dwarf him even further.  They were also part of a concept of "building communism" by having large edifices to symbolize the communist state's might.

    Recently, Berdymukhamedov announced he would build mosques to hold 3,000 in the cities of Turkmenbashi and Konye-Urgench, AP reported. And there are plans for one in Balkanabat, says turkmenistan.ru and even an international tender. (Qatar helped Tajikistan build its big mosque.)

    Actually, these aren't so mega — the largest mosque in Central Asia is part of the Turkmenbashi complex where past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov is buried, in Kipchak, outside of Ashgabat. That's funny, given that he once said there were "too many" mosques.

    Mosque
    Another photo of the Turkmenbashi mosque by Nathan Groth, 2010.

  • What is the British Defense Minister Doing in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan?

     

    Rifles_news_0037_7riflessteppeeagle_410_06
    "The iconic silver bugles of The RIFLES have been heard across the Kazak Steppes sounding out their distinctive bugle calls to the Riflemen," British army, on training of Kazakh army in 2009.

    Fergananews.com brings the news that the British defense minister is touring Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this week.

    EurasiaNet doesn't have anything on this yet, but the government news wire Kazinform reports that Rt. Hon. Philip Hammond MP is meeting with President Nursaltan Nazarbayev.

    They are talking in the usual Soviet-style comradely atmosphere about the usual vague topics like "educational exchange" and "regional security".

    "Our military officials are studying in programs for military preparedness in Great Britain," enthused Nazarbayev.

    Prime Minister David Cameron is going to visit Kazakhstan. No human rights groups anywhere appear to have made any statements, likely because they had no notice of the trip, just mentioned in the regional media today. Says Kazinform:

    Peace-keeping occupies an important place in the military cooperation between Kazakhstan and Great Britain. Proof of this are the annual Steppe Eagle exercises. Kazakhstan has also made its contribution to the process of normalization of the situation in Iraq as a part of the Multi-national Froces, where the engineering mine-detection squad of the Kazakh Army received high recognition.

    Most likely they talked about the war in Afghanistan, and the Northern Distribution Network, the cargo delivery route to NATO troops. But that's not mentioned in the official media.

    There's only a terse announcement on the Uzbek Foreign Ministry site about Hammond's visit and we're not likely to get more from the Uzbek media. Latvia's defense minister just visited Uzbekistan, olam.uz reports.

    Nothing on the British Ministry of Defence website, but you can read there about a British soldier's body armour which saved him from a Taliban's bullet — the British are serious about fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, but they, too, are drawing down troops like the US.

    You have to go into Google cache to get this story about a House of Commons parliamentary questioning of Hammond about Uzbekistan, but it's interesting:

    Afghanistan: Peacekeeping Operations

    Mr Mike Hancock: To ask the Secretary of State for Defence what discussions he has had with his counterpart in Uzbekistan on the withdrawal of UK military equipment from Afghanistan via rail; and if he will make a statement. [85226]

    Mr Philip Hammond: There has been no ministerial-level engagement with the Uzbek authorities on the subject of the withdrawal of UK military equipment from Afghanistan by rail.

    The highest level engagement by Ministry of Defence officials has been by the assistant chief of Defence staff (Logistic Operations), the two-star military officer responsible for the support of UK forces in Afghanistan and the efficient and cost-effective draw-down of those forces. As part of a wider programme of liaison with countries in central Asia, the present and previous incumbents of that post have visited Uzbekistan three times, in August 2010, March 2011 and November 2011, to conduct discussions with Uzbek officials, including the Defence Minister. These discussions have included the role that Uzbekistan might play in the draw-down of UK forces in Afghanistan but to date no decisions have been taken on the way forward.

    Will they get a decision with this visit?

    Steppe Eagle 2009
    US and Kazakh Soldiers in the Steppe Eagle exercises in 2009, NATO's Partnership for Peace.