• WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


    (more…)

  • No, the US Will Not Use Tajikistan as Its Back Yard Leaving Afghanistan

    Blake on BBC
    Blake gives an interview to the BBC in March 2012 during a trip to Dushanbe. Photo by US Embassy Dushanbe.

    So here we have it now (distributed today), so we don't just have to listen to Russian analyst speculation or my newsletter, we can hear it from the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia himself, in answer to some journalists in Dushanbe:

    No, the US will not use Tajikistan as its backyard or a doormat on its way out of Afghanistan.

    But really, the next questions for the journalists to have asked, if they had had an opportunity before the Assistant Secretary was whisked away on the tarmac, would be something like these:

    o But is the US training special ops teams or intelligence-related personnel or troops so that we have a close working relationship with the oppressive government of Tajikistan regarding post-withdrawal Afghanistan?

    o But just how many US troops and advisers will remain in Tajikistan, and will this number grow, and will there be any kind of informal cooperation with the abusive government of Tajikistan around something like Ayni or any other location?

    o But does the US feel that it is constrained by the presence of Russian troops and Russian plans/intentions regarding Tajikistan?

    o Say, why *won't* the operation take place through Tajikistan, but takes place through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and of course Russia (60% of the NDN chokehold is in Russia)? Is life about choices among Eurasian tyrants or are there logistical issues with road or rail conditions or something?

    o Could you be more specific then, if you aren't literally going to run the US troops backward out of Tajikistan, and you aren't going to literally help Tajikistan through the base in Ayni, what *will* you will be doing militarily in terms of helping the authoritarian government of Tajikistan to have stability?

    o What do you define as "stability"?

    Remarks

    Robert O. Blake, Jr.
    Assistant Secretary, Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs
    Palace of Nations
    Dushanbe, Tajikistan
    February 20, 2013


     

    Assistant Secretary Blake:
    Well good evening everyone. I’ve just concluded a very productive
    meeting with his Excellency President Rahmon. I had the opportunity to
    thank President Rahmon for his very strong support of stabilization
    efforts in Afghanistan and for his strong support of the U.S. and
    international coalition efforts in Afghanistan. We discussed how we can
    continue to strengthen our cooperation in the areas of border security,
    counterterrorism, and counternarcotics. I congratulated President Rahmon
    on the progress that Tajikistan has made in its efforts to join the
    World Trade Organization that will occur very soon and I remarked that
    this will be an important step in facilitating trade and regional
    integration in this region. We also discussed the importance of free,
    transparent and fair elections in the elections that will take place in
    November; as well as the importance of allowing space for
    nongovernmental organizations, for journalists, and for other members of
    civil society. I will be giving a press conference tomorrow but I’ll be
    glad to take one or two questions now.

    Question: Did you have a chance to discuss with the President,
    issues related to military cooperation, in particular, using the
    territory of Tajikistan for transportation of some cargo for
    Afghanistan, for some joint cooperation there? Did you discuss issues of
    the use of one of our airports in the remote region of Ayni for the use
    of military operations and for the purposes of military cooperation
    with Afghanistan?

    Assistant Secretary Blake: No, we didn’t discuss any use of
    any Tajik airport either now or in the future but we did discuss, in
    general, our cooperation on Afghanistan and again particularly the
    importance of continuing to strengthen our cooperation in the areas of
    border security and counternarcotics and counterterrorism particularly
    now that this very important transition in Afghanistan is beginning.
    I’ll take one more question.

    Question [BBC/Tajikistan]: Does the U.S. government have an
    intention to withdraw its troops very soon through the territory of
    Tajikistan and if yes, how will Tajikistan benefit from it?

    Assistant Secretary Blake: No, as you all know, the President
    of the United States announced during his State of the Union speech that
    the United States would be halving the number of troops in Afghanistan
    by February of next year, but I don’t expect that that operation will
    take place through Tajikistan. But nonetheless I do want to express our
    support for Tajikistan’s efforts to help the stabilization for
    Afghanistan and we very much count on those efforts continuing. And
    again, I’ll be glad to take your questions tomorrow. Thank you very
    much.

  • UPDATE: Civil Society in Turkmenistan? What Civil Society in Turkmenistan?!

    Microscope
    USAID provides a gift of microscopes to Turkmen medical personnel. Photo US Embassy in Ashgbat

    So when I heard that Robert Blake, Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asia, was going to "meet with civil society representatives" on his day-long trip to Turkmenistan last week, naturally I took out my microscope here, like these Turkmen medical workers took out these handy gifts from USAID.

    Not to say anything bad about people fighting the good fight and all, but…civil society? Turkmenistan? Really, guys?

    I was really, really curious what they would come up with.

    It's true that there are a very tiny handful of human rights defenders in Turkmenistan, or intellectuals who question the regime modestly, and such, and perhaps that's whom they met? But there's no transcript of the meeting or even a press release — there's only a round table with journalists which is separate.

    UPDATE:  I've now found out about Blake's meeting, although not from his office, and as I suspected, it
    was a very tiny number of people who are very beleaguered, so I won't
    mention their names, so as not to put them further in the spotlight and targeted for repression. Although I do hope that this meeting with the somewhat influential United States will guarantee them in fact some modicum of protection.

    I've
    also been hearing more from various human rights groups about the press law,
    and found it is quite fake: you must be accredited by the state to be
    called "a journalist," so that freelancers and bloggers do not count and
    are not protected. Remember the old American adage: the best press law
    is no press law. That's why it says "Congress shall make no law…" in
    the First Amendment.

    There are many issues that should have been
    discussed by Blake in his meetings with officials, but we don't know
    what they were because they're secret (except for the answers to the
    press at the round table, which were not very complete, despite his
    protestations).

    There are the appalling conditions in the prisons;
    the long sentences to political prisoners who are missing or who don't
    get visits for very long periods.

    There's the entire issue of
    Russian migration/citizenship which has been handled horribly by both
    Russia and Turkmenistan, forcing people either to give up their jobs and homes and
    flee to Russia in uncertainty, or stay in Turkmenistan but unable to
    leave and live as second-class citizens.

    One of the reasons I
    insisted on keeping Jackson-Vanik on the books is because Turkmenistan
    remains as essentially a non-market economy which restricts emigration
    — it keeps a black list of people not allowed out of — or into –the
    country.

    ***

    So…did they mean that they were going to meet with the Galkynysh Galkynysh Galkynysh imenno Galkynysha? ("Galkynysh" is a Turkmen word that means "renewal" or "revival," and the state makes very heavy use of it for just about everything — they renamed their gas fields by this word, and it's also the name of a fake government-organized civic movement that in fact actually got disbanded and folded into something else recently, I think. Galkynysh is also the name of Berdymukhamedov's yacht.

    If you look down below at the recommended articles, you will see one BBC story, "Turkmen FM Missing for 10 Years". He likely was outright executed in the prison system or died of mistreatment.  I've always been astounded that an actual foreign minister — a man who met with all kinds of foreigners and was known around the world because of the role this gas-rich state played in the region — could actually go missing and no one would really seem to ask for him anymore. Does anymore? There's your answer about civil society: that. When they find him — or confess to what they have done with him, that's the day that maybe civil society might begin…

    Right before Blake's plane touched down, the Turkmens churned out a new "liberal" media law. I'm sure it will be implemented in practice *cough*. As usual, with his latest house-cleaning, Berdy has kicked the latest TV director to the curb. Who would ever agree to take that job?!

    Now, I'm the first to say that civil society doesn't have to exist in registered NGOs, let alone USAID or Soros grantees. If anything, the more a social movement can exist without those confines, which can be deadly in their own way, the better. Civil society can take lots of forms. In this part of the world, you can't be horribly picky. You work with what there is. If all you can do is GONGO work, you do that, just because it's better than a stick in your eye.

    But when you do this sort of fake stuff, you have to keep pinching yourself and reminding yourself it's fake — and I don't think enough people do that these days, especially younger people. They come to believe the fiction that USAID is helping "the community" when they do this or that in a place like Turkmenistan. In fact, they are helping strengthening the autocratic government. It's like the questions I asked about the Navy Seabees, God bless them, when they go help the Stroibat in Tajikistan. This has its blessings, but it's good to ask what at the end of the day it is reinforcing, an abusive coercive army that is displacing what could be a viable private sector in construction or…

    No doubt some bureaucrats somewhere are trying to tease out the tendrils of this new press law and call it some sort of "improvement"…

    To be sure, various things go on in Turkmenistan that are touching or quaint or that provide people with a sense of "humanity" that gives them hope that "maybe" civil society is possible. Of course, if civil society means the ability to go to a Western film show, then we've lowered our standards and we're not thinking of institutions anymore, but just semblances.

    Turkmens were moved as any one would be of the horrific massacre of school children in Newtown, Massachusetts, and they left out flowers and stuffed animals just like people around the world.

    Gallerysympathy2012-x558
    US Embassy Ashgabat 2012.

    And Turkmens learn "California Dreamin' to sing for a foreign guest".

    But while endearing and human, it's humanity, not civil society, which is what enables societies to be humane as well as human.

    I was looking at some photos of North Korean scenes the other day and I saw one that showed a couple and their child having a picnic in a park. The father was bouncing the child up and down. Sure, North Koreans have picnics, even in their totalitarian horror. Even so, it reminded me of Erik Bulatov's painting DANGER with the picnic. The borders loom…

    The US had toned down the human rights/democracy/civil society rhetoric quite a bit in dealing with Turkmenistan in the earlier years of Berdymukhamedov's reign. I think they wanted to make sure they didn't queer any gas deals.

    But now that those deals have remained elusive for some 6 years now, and all those promised blocs for Chevron and ConocoPhilips and such aren't materializing, the US has gotten a little bit more forward-leaning on the human rights portfolio.

    So now someone like Blake will actually weave these words into his speeches but of course in an entirely anodyne fashion:

    As I said earlier, we had a good discussion on human rights issues, some
    of the new laws that have been passed here in Turkmenistan, as well as
    on educational and exchange programs that are of great importance.

    This was an opportunity to say something a tad more critical about that press law with the paint not even dry on it, but, alas…

    Unfortunately, when the US does this, well, not so forcefully, and does it much more in places like Belarus, it gets this snide reaction from the Russians, as gundogar.org reported about an interview with Sergei Mikheyev, general director of the Center for Current Politics on Voice of Russia:

    By the way, some information came out about how [Blake] would meet with representatives of civil society, and talk about human rights. I think such a conversation in Turkmenistan will be extremely uninteresting, especially given the background of America's vested interested in the region.

    It's just interesting to see their approaches: in some parts of the world, they trumpet about their principled and uncompromising adherence to the struggle for human rights even to the point of hysteria, and in others — they simply don't notice obvious things in places where it is profitable for them.

    Ouch. Well, no angel he, as Russia's appalling support of the most murderous regime on the planet now after the North Koreans — Assad in Syria — just trumps anything any Russian wants to natter on about human rights.

    But he doesn't say anything any different than US human rights activists who complain about the selectivity with which the US bashes Belarus — because it can — and is mute on Russia and Central Asia.

    This is because of the 60% chokehold that Russia has over us with our need to go through their back yard with the Northern Distribution Network.

    Turkmenistan does not let us send trucks or trains through their land, but they allow overflights of "non-lethal" materials and they have a "gas-and-go" arrangement at their airport — and are building a new airport.

    At the press round table we see the real limitations of this semblance of advocacy:

    Question: You last visited Turkmenistan in 2011 as part of a
    regional tour of Central Asia as well as Azerbaijan. During your last
    visit you criticized the very slow speed and tempo of reform and
    democratization in the region, and in Turkmenistan in particular. So
    what has changed?

    Assistant Secretary Blake: Well, in all of my meetings today I
    just expressed the view of the United States that political development
    needs to keep pace with economic development, and that it’s very
    important for any society to have a vigorous civil society to help
    ensure popular support for the programs of the government.

    So we talked about the new law on mass media as well as the law on
    national security agencies and, again, I urged progress on all the
    fundamental freedoms, not only because those are important in their own
    right, but because those will help to ensure a stable, democratic, and
    prosperous future for Turkmenistan.

    Question: Can you provide more specifics?

    Assistant Secretary Blake: I think I’ve been pretty specific.

    I've followed up with a query to him on Twitter on who these people were in "civil society"; I think it will "go nowhere".

    Well, one wonders if in the conversations, Blake asks things like "Say, where's your foreign minister? He's been missing for a decade. Did you find him yet?" Or "Say, how are those young people who put up Youtube videos of that explosion in Abadan? Are they out of jail?"

    I suspect the conversation doesn't go that way. And it's hard to make it go that way when the real hysterics and trumpeters are people like the regime representatives, not only about how wonderful they are, with their iodine in the water and safe baby zones and everything like that, but how awful the rest of the world is by contrast.

    What you have to do with a situation like this, as I said, however, is work with what you can. Yes, it's good to have the visiting inspectors and firemen raise the tough cases. Those who have to work there have to try to do the benign things like windmills or anti-AIDS programs that they can get passed.

    They have to try to find their "counterparts" in the professions and try to break their isolation. Of course, all the people allowed to meet with foreigners are groomed and cleared and you end up talking to the same ones over and over again at the Institute for Democracy and Human Rights WITH the President, in meetings where the Protector, as he is called, beams over you from a portrait. No matter, you keep trying, especially to get Turkmens to travel outside their country where they can have some new experiences.

    No doubt Amb. Robert Patterson does all of these things, with his considerable experience from Leningrad to Somalia; he speaks Russian, and probably tries every little thing you can try there to try to create normalcy. But it is hard, and you can't do it alone. It would help if the US could get the EU more on the same page so that things like German doctors agreeing to preside while Berdymukhamedov, trained as a dentist, operates on a hapless Turkmen patient, don't happen and therefore don't add lustre to this lunatic.

    It's about damage control, and pushing the envelope, and not conferring legitimacy on them. And hoping for a better day…

     Meanwhile, in a place like Turkmenistan, it's best not to organize something called "a meeting with civil society" when it most certainly doesn't exist even in the tattered form it does in say, Uzbekistan.

     

     

     

     

  • Tajik Opticon #6

    Prokudin-Gorsky Small

    This is my little blog about Tajikistan that comes out on Saturdays. I had a three-week hiatus during the region's holidays, which I call "The Land of the Eternal Yolka," and my own holidays, which were actually a chance to get some big work projects done. If you want to read past issues, click on "Tajikistan" under the categories. If you have comments leave them here or write me at [email protected] where you can also get on the list to get this newsletter via email.

    COMMENTS

    Here we go again with the on-again, off-again social media website closures in Tajikistan which have been going on for months and which I've reported on in all my past issues.

    What is the purpose of these shenanigans? Not really to shut down the sites, which likely make money for somebody, and likely related to the president and his family somewhere. It's just to let them know that "they can if they want," and they are in charge here. Post your LolCats if you will, people, but we can pull them on you at any time, for no any reason, or no reason. (Actually, they are a lot like the TOS of most of these services in that respect, because they can ban you arbitrarily at will for any reason or no reason, too!)

    The saga of these American social networks gets Western media attention, but they are used by Tajiks in small numbers *(there are 41,160 Facebook users reported by Socialbakers among the lowest in the world, but still 0.55% of the population, which is about 7.5 million. I couldn't find the Twitter usage right away, but if Twitter in Russia is .3% of iPhone users, then Tajikistan will be even smaller). BTW, this research company says that people don't use the geolocation tag much, so it's a bit worthless to speculate.

    What's more important than whether or not these Western sites get blocked — although they are still significant and an important outlet for some — is how the internal sites like Asia Plus fare, and what the government or its proxies are doing to control the domestic media.

    Despite the foreign minister's claim that he would get 80% of the population on the Internet, the government is going slow and keeping a tight rein on the web. And the Muslim authorities are also letting journalists know they are watching. The Council of Ulems, which is basically an arm of the state as Forum 18's Igor Rotar has explained, recently issued a statement saying that fatwahs were not to be recognized if issued from various unofficial groups. Well, at first that might seem like welcome news, if the official Islamic Council tells people that fatwahs are not going to be recognized. But all they mean is that they themselves get to be the only ones in the fatwah business.

    The journalists' community is not sitting back on  their hands when they hear this sort of thing; Nuriddin Karshibayev, head of the National Association of Independent Media of Tajikistan said this was a mere "recommendation" and that in any event, a fatwah "is not a lawful demand, and looks like interference in the professional activity of a journalist , which is an act punishable under criminal law". Well, good luck with that, as a state-approved and state-controlled entity like the Council of Ulems may be viewed as making "lawful demands" by the regime when it tells TV and radio "not to corrupt youth" and so on. It's obviously a tug of war. I don't know why Karshibayev said, "If the Council of Ulems believes our journalist do not know how to write materials on religious themes, please, let us organize trainings and teach them". Good Lord, that's giving them too much, as you don't want this state religious council in the business of "training" journalists. That must be merely a rhetorial device to call them out (I hope).

    Here's a good article from 2010 which explains why people even turn to Islamic authorities and want to get their fatwahs in the first place: they want some authority to deal with problems that the state can't or won't address, and they want in particular a moral leader to resolve their problems like divorce and division of property. These are people's customs and heritage and they want to turn to them as the secular Soviet and post-Soviet governments aren't helpful. The question is whether these customs, as they become more enhanced, and as the government also exploits people's need for them, become either a toehold for extremism or another conveyor belt for state control or both simultaneously. Certainly the effort to close down two stores that had build informal mosques on their premises lets us know that the state doesn't like freelancing on religion and is ready to invoke both building codes and religious law to accomplish this task.

    The US military is in Tajikistan. What do they do all day, as they wait for the seams to burst on their handiwork in Afghanistan next door after 2014? Well, they are trying to make "infrastructure" in keeping with the Obama Administration's notion, developed under Hillary Clinton and likely to be continued under John Kerry, of a "New Silk Road" that will replace the ground lines of communication (G-LOC) in the Northern Distribution Network with arteries for business and trade.

    To that end, the US deploys the Navy Seabees to help Tajikistan. These are the same Navy Seabees who are busy bees in neighbouring Afghanistan, building a trauma center for the region.

    In Tajikistan, the Seabees are helping the Stroibat. Oh, the Stroibat! Remember them from the Soviet era? That was the division of the Soviet Red Army where a lot of hapless recruits were put to work building roads — and still are. As I'm getting the impression from some history, it seems the tsar, then the commissars would tend to put Central Asians into the stroibat instead of combat units because they weren't sure they'd stay loyal to the cause.

    Perhaps you didn't realize that Seabees despite its spelling comes from
    CB, which is American for "stroibat" — Construction Battallion. As we can learn helpfully from the US ambassador in Cambodia, now that there's much social media out there:

    Since World War II, the Seabees have been building roads, airstrips, and buildings in various locales all over the world, sometimes in support of a specific military objective, as during World War II, but other times to help improve the infrastructure of a developing country.

    So the American stroibat, if you will, is very much central to the notion of the New Silk Road.

    In Tajkistan, as you can read below, and see all the pictures, the work has involved training their "counterparts". Except, like a lot of things in this business, they aren't really counterparts. The Navy Seabees are voluntary recruits, and they come from a country where there is a rich and developed private sector in construction, and other competing branches even of civilian construction for disasters like FEMA, not to mention the Army Corps of Engineers.  And even if you look at things like the Roosevelt era and the WPA and the roads and national parks construction, the American state hasn't used the metaphor of "building socialism" in the same way as the Soviet and post-Soviet states have, literally mobilizing workers forcefully into the army, or on volunteer subbotniks and such, to get large construction projects done.

    On balance, it's probably a good thing that these mid-Western kids in the US Navy are teaching the Tajik Stroibat things like how to put in shims on cross-beams.

    But are they displacing what in fact could be better established in the private sector or civilian sector, rather than strengthening the Soviet-style Stroibat? I wonder. To be sure, our Seabees are going to great lengths to "strengthen the local economy," as they put it, buying their construction materials in nearby markets. Those markets might depend on the good will of some state or even religious potentate in that area; there really isn't a "free market" in the American sense.

    Of such mismatches of seeming counterparts, history is made. Will the New Silk Road get built with a series of these kinds of shims, stuck into whatever seeming counterpart they can find hastily before 2015? Look down at the end to see how much money we spend on Tajikistan: a pittance — $45 million for this last year for the non-military projects. So, maybe it's a good thing that building is getting done out of the military budget?

    The military gets in where private business may still fear to tread. Maplecroft cautions against investment in these corrupt and unstable countries. Okay, well I do wonder this: how is that Tajik engineer who headed up the British gold company Oxus' efforts in Uzbekistan, who got jailed when the Uzbek government seized their assets? Eventually, this company stopped complaining publicly. Maybe they made a settlement. What happened to the engineer, Said Ashurov? It seems he is still serving a 12-year sentence for "espionage" while those with foreign passports headed for the exits.

     

    * Tajik Government Still Messing Around with Social Media Sites

    * Religious Council: No Fatwahs! Or Rather,  Just Our Fatwahs, Please!

    * American Stroibat Helps Tajik Stroibat – and So the New Silk Road…

     

    Tajik Facebook And RFE/RL Sites To Be Unblocked In 'Two To Three Days' (RFE/RL)

    The Tajik government's Communications Service chief says the Facebook
    social network and the website of RFE/RL's Tajik Service will be
    accessible again in two or three days.

    Beg Zuhurov told journalists on January 18 that "access to some websites was disrupted because of technical problems."

    RFE/RL's Tajik Website, Facebook Blocked Again (RFE/RL)

    The Facebook social network and RFE/RL's website in Tajik are inaccessible in Tajikistan again.

    Asomuddin Atoev, the chairman of Tajikistan's Association of Internet
    Service Providers, told RFE/RL that Tajikistan's leading Internet
    service providers received SMS instructions from the government's
    Communications Service requesting the sites be blocked.

    However, the service's chief, Beg Zuhurov, told RFE/RL that his service had not given any instructions to block the sites.

    Tajikistan: Dushanbe Web Regulator Creating “Preposterous Impediments” (EurasiaNet)

    Something strange happened in Tajikistan over a late December
    weekend. On a Friday evening, the government’s communications agency
    ordered Internet service providers (ISPs) to block 131 websites for
    “technical” reasons. Then suddenly, a few days later, the ISPs were
    told, in effect; ‘never mind.’

    * * *

    “Instead of creating a favorable environment for further development of
    Tajik IT enterprises, and ensuring their access to foreign markets, the
    regulator creates preposterous impediments,” said Asomiddin Atoev, the
    chairman of the Association of Internet Providers. “Tajikistan recently joined the World Trade Organization.
    The authorities simply do not realize the responsibility imposed by
    many WTO provisions. In particular, these include the creation of a
    favorable business environment, including in the IT sector, the creative
    industry, and [protection of] intellectual property,” Atoev added.

    Theologians at Tajikistan Islamic Center Recommend Media Refrain from Fatwahs (Asia+ Russian)

    (Summary translation) Theologians at the Islamic Center of Tajikistan recommend media leaders and officials of the government's Committee on Religious Affairs to refrain from giving out fatwahs (in Islam, this is an explanation of a certain problem of a religious and legal nature, and also an answer to a question of a religious nature, which a competent person provides).

    "A fatwah can be giving exclusively by the ulems of the Islamic Center and our doors are open to all citizens of the country," says the appeal, which was passed at a meeting of the Council of Ulems [Theologians] of the Islamic Center of Tajikistan and distributed January 19."

    "A democratic state gives the right to all people to express their opinion but in all developed countries, democracy is limited by the frameworks of the law. It is hard to imagine what would happen with our society if individual groupings, for the sake of their own interests, would interpret the canons of shariah in their own way," says the statement.

    Nuriddin Karshibayev, head of the National Association of Independent Media of Tajikistan, has told Asia Plus that the ulems announcment  is only a "recommendation" because the Constitution prohibits censorship.

    "If the Council of Ulems believes our journalist do not know how to write materials on religious themes, please, let us organize trainings and teach them. But getting a fatwah, forgive me, that's not a lawful demand, and looks like interference in the professional activity of a journalist , which is an act punished under criminal law."

    Muminabad has a population of 13,000 with 4 mosques; there are a total of 51 in the whole region.

    Authorities Stop Store Owners from Adding Mosques (Asia Plus – Russian)

    In the village of Muminabad (see some good pictures here), in the administrative center of Muminabad district of the Khatlon region, the owners of two private stores unlawfully tried to adapt them as mosques.

    Sharif Abdylkhamidov, head of the Qulyab regional department of religious affairs, said authorities blocked the store owner on Tursunzade Street in Muminabad who had put in a separate entrance and turned the second floor of the store into a mosque.

     

    Darvaz
    Darvaz, one of the remote border towns near the Afghan border in Gorno-Badakhshan Photo by Brian Harrington Spier.

    Tajikistan Requests Documents On Borders From Russia (RFE/RL)

    The Tajik foreign minister has officially asked Russian authorities to
    provide Dushanbe with historical documents related to borders between
    former Soviet republics in Central Asia.

    Hamrohon Zarifi told journalists on January 17 that the documents are
    needed to clarify Tajikistan's borders with neighboring Uzbekistan and
    Kyrgyzstan in order to prevent problems like those experienced in
    Uzbekistan's Sokh district.

    Tajikistan Driving Hard Bargain With Russia Over Base (EurasiaNet)

    The presidents of Tajikistan and Russia signed an agreement
    in October to extend the presence of the Russian military base in
    Tajikistan for another 30 years. But Tajikistan is dragging its feet on
    the ratification of the deal, waiting first for Russia to carry out its
    part of the deal, to supply duty-free petroleum products and to loosen
    restrictions on labor migrants, according to a report
    in the Russian newspaper Kommersant. The Kremlin wanted all of these
    issues to be dealt with all at the same time, and Russian foreign
    minister Sergey Lavrov just finished a visit to Dushanbe, where he attempted to iron out these issues.

    Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan Present “Extreme Risk” to Investors – Survey (EurasiaNet)

    Investors operating in three post-Soviet Central Asian republics face
    an “extreme risk” of having their businesses expropriated, according to
    a survey released last week in the UK.

    Maplecroft, a Bath-based political risk consultancy, said on January 9
    that it had found plenty of reasons to be wary of the business climate
    in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan after “evaluating the risk to
    business from discriminatory acts by the government that reduces
    ownership, control or rights of private investments either gradually or
    as a result of a single action.” Recent fits of resource nationalism in
    Kyrgyzstan — where the Kumtor gold mine,
    operated by Toronto-based Centerra Gold, accounted for 12 percent of
    GDP in 2011 and more than half the country’s industrial output – and
    rampant authoritarianism in places like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have
    led Maplecroft to rank these countries among the most risky in the
    world.

    "We're Proud that President's Son Works in Customs" (h/t @joshuakucera) – Russian

    Ever since Rustam Emomali (the eldest son of the president of Tajikistan) began working at the Customs Agency, this service has obtained good results. This was stated today at a press conference by Nemat Rahmatov, first deputy of the Customs Service of the government of Tajikistan.

    "Only in the course of the last year, 88  million somoni were sent to the country's budget by preventing contrabrand of goods. We are proud that the son of the head of state works in our agency, and we hope Rustam Emomali will continue his activity in the customs service," said Rahmatov.

    Seebees
    Seabees assigned to Naval Mobile Construction Battalion 133 work with
    the Tajik Army to rebuild, restore and remodel various buildings on
    Shamsi Military Base in Tajikistan. NMCB 133 is deployed with Commander,
    Task Group 56.2, promoting maritime security operations and theater
    security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of
    responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd
    Class Derek R. Sanchez/Released)

    Seebees2
    Builder Constructionman Taylor Mendonca, assigned to Naval Mobile
    Construction Battalion 133, teaches a Tajik soldier how to shim cross
    slats while building a roof during an international relations project
    with the Tajik Army. NMCB 133 is deployed with Commander, Task Group
    56.2, promoting maritime security operations and theater security
    cooperation efforts in the US. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. (U.S.
    Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Derek R.
    Sanchez/Released)

    NMCB 133 Conducts First Mission in Tajikistan (US Navy) h/t @joshuakucera

    U.S. Navy Seabees assigned to Naval Mobile Construction Battalion (NMCB)
    133 deployed to Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in November as part of a Global
    Peace Operations Initiative (GPOI), the first Seabee mission in
    Tajikistan.

    In support of the Office of Military Cooperation (OMC) and Tajikistan
    Ministry of Defense (MOD), the Seabee crew began construction alongside
    the MOD's construction force, the Stroibat, on phase one of a $1 million
    project at the Peace Support Operation Training Center (PSOTC) at
    Shamsi Base, funded by GPOI.

    To help boost the local economy and establish lasting relationships with
    contractors and vendors, the building materials were procured in nearby
    street vendor markets by Utilitiesman 1st Class Justin Walker, the
    Seabee project supervisor, and Air Force contracting officer, 1st Lt.
    Sunset Lo. The vendors delivered the materials in a timely manner,
    enabling the project to move forward on schedule.

    If you want, you can friend them on Facebook.

    Hit-and-Run Accident in Dushanbe Involves Car with US Embassy License Plate (Asia Plus – Russian)

    A car with US Embassy license plates (004 D 055) in Dushanbe was involved in a hit-in-run accident which killed Loik Sharali on December 29, 2012, Asia Plus reports. Police are investigating, and the US Embassy says they are cooperating.

    Lots of "Yankee Go Home" in the comments there, and recollections of how the US disregarded diplomatic immunity for a Georgian diplomat who killed a girl in an accident in the US. 

    Coaches Handed Over in Dushanbe (Railway Gazette)

    The 15 coaches including a restaurant car were ordered from Ukrainian
    manufacturer Kriukov Car Building Works. Similar to vehicles previously
    supplied to Kazakhstan, they are designed for use in temperatures
    between -45°C and 40°C and are to be deployed on Dushanbe – Moscow
    services.

    Tajikistan:  Recent Developments and US Interests (CRS)

    From Congressional Research Service by Jim Nichols.

    The United States has been Tajikistan's largest bilateral donor, budgeting $988.57 million of aid for Tajikistan (FREEDOM support Act and agency budgets) over the period from fiscal year 1992 through fiscal year 2010, mainly for food and other hunmanitarian needs. Budgeted assistance for FY2011 was $44.48 million, and estimated assistance for FY2012 was $45.02 million. The Administration requested $37.41 million in foreign assistance for Tajikistan in FY2013 (these FY2011-FY2013 figures exclude most Defense and Energy Department programs).

  • “Great Gain, Not Great Game” — But Increased Militarization?

    EXBS
    Mitsubishi ATV given by US in EXBS Vehicle Donation program to Uzbek Institute of Nuclear Physics

    Argh, who writes these lines?

    Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asia Robert O. Blake, Jr. put out the transcript of a speech yesterday made at Indiana University's Inner Asian and Uralic Natural Resource Center  titled Toward a Great Gain, Not a New Great Game. OK, who profits, as Lenin would say?

    Most of the references to human rights are generics, but there's this:

    It is important to note that we always take into account the political,
    economic, military and human rights situation of a partner country when
    deciding what kind of security cooperation to pursue. As an example, we
    provide only non-lethal assistance to Uzbekistan because of our concerns
    about its human rights record. But we continue to engage, making it
    clear that our relationship can reach its full potential only when
    Uzbekistan meets its human rights obligations.

    Non-lethal, but still military, i.e. still assistance to police and troops that might be directly or indirectly, as a system, part of human rights abuse. I don't believe human rights and democracy "rub off" from training, and that those kinds of exercises are mainly fallacious and at best, aspirational — and really more about having contacts with regimes so that when all hell breaks loose you have people to talk to. Or even before all hell breaks loose — in another program, the US supplies vehicles to the IUzbek nuclear institute to be able to zip around and monitor radiation at borders. During the presentation ceremony in July, Amb. George Krol explained:

    The U.S. and Uzbekistan are partners in the fight against
    transnational threats including international terrorism and the
    proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. The problem of
    proliferation and trafficking of illicit materials is not just a problem
    for our two countries but for the world, and the work performed by
    Uzbekistan’s Institute of Nuclear Physics is vital to making the world
    safer.

    These Mitsubishis are donated for "the war on terror," and are hopefully used for their intended purpose — if used wrongfully, it's more likely they wouldn't be involved in cracking down on dissidents so much as driving groceries home. But speculation that the US might leave military vehicles or equipment (or more seriously, sell arms) remains — and there's nothing wrong with continuing to watch this with that speculation in mind, because it could happen quickly. For one, we have Blake's words at a press conference in August in Tashkent which are a reassurance, but also involve his own thinking of what might be expected — but not certainty:

    AP:  Also in Uzbekistan, there have been some reports from Russian media
    recently suggesting the possibility that during the drawdown during 2014
    that military equipment might be left along. What assurances can be
    made making certain that the wrong things do not end in the wrong hands,
    by which I mean weaponry.

    Blake: First of all, the process of allocating Excess Defense Articles
    is only just beginning. We are beginning the consultations on that. It
    won’t be just for Uzbekistan but for all countries partnering on NDN.
    There will be quite detailed conversations with our military people
    based in embassies in each of these posts, with host nation counterparts
    on this thing. With respect to Uzbekistan, I do not think there will be
    any lethal weapons of any kind that will be offered. I think most of
    the kind of things that will be on offer will be military vehicles,
    Humvees, those kind of things. It is in our interests to provide those
    kinds of equipment. Uzbekistan has been a strong supporter of the NDN.
    That has in turn raised their profile with international terrorist
    organizations, who may want to target Uzbekistan in retribution. So, it
    is very much in our interest to help Uzbekistan defend itself against
    such attacks.

    We are certainly prepared to think about how we can do that. I myself
    have been engaged over the last year in the U.S. Congress to get a
    waiver so that we can provide non-lethal military assistance to
    Uzbekistan, even though they have not met a lot of the human rights
    conditions that would allow for more regular military assistance. That
    waiver has been approved. We are providing non-lethal military
    assistance now and will continue to do so, and the EDA process will be
    one way that we could help.

    Around Blake's trip to Uzbekistan in August, the Uzbek regime acquitted one token activist, Shuhrat Rustamov, as Democracy Digest reported
    although of course a dozen or more human rights defenders and
    journalists remain, and many thousands of religious prisoners remain. I
    haven't seen an independent read-out of this civil society meeting,
    which was likely choreographed and selective, but at least it was a
    departure from past years and trips by high-profile US officials who
    avoided civil society.

    The Indiana speech doesn't add anything new with regard to these intentions or the prospects of deployment of a US base, but it certainly doesn't make such speculation seem unreasonable or even "conspiratorial" as Joshua Foust has claimed. It's an evolving situation. Joshua Kucera at the Bug Pit focused on the speculation about whether a base would be negotiated and noted Blake's denials. Although no base was negotiated, he felt the trip was used by Blake to understand Karimov's motivations and intentions for leaving the CSTO. But then Kucera overlooks the real practical goal of the visit, as Democracy Digest pointed out, in describing the "sweetener" to this trip that came with the activist's court acquittal:

    The ruling came as Obama administration
    officials prepare to negotiate an agreement with Islam Karimov,
    Uzbekistan’s authoritarian president, to permit thousands of military
    vehicles, and other equipment to transit from Afghanistan through Uzbek
    territory.

    This week General William Fraser III, the Commander of the U.S. military
    Transportation Command (TRANSCOM), visited Uzbekistan to meet with
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulaziz Kamilov and Minister of Defense
    Kabul Berdiev to discuss issues relating to the Northern Distribution
    Network through which cargo transits Uzbekistan en route to
    Afghanistan. Those issues are likely less about supplying troops in their last year and more about bringing the heavy military vehicles out. All in all, the effort is to increase closer cooperation between the Uzbek and US militaries, as this other recent program for fraternization also indicates. 

    The UK has also, of course been very busy doing this same type of negotiations — and this is what prompted the AP reporter to ask whether these transiting vehicles could "fall into the wrong hands," i.e. Uzbek military and/or Interior Ministry troops/police that might use it to oppress their own people as they did in Andijan in 2005 or — I would add — terrorists.  Certainly when *thousands* of vehicles are going from point A through point B, some of them will get lost, stolen, misappropriated, and maybe given away, despite Blake's claims that this will be tightly controlled.

    Kazakhstan also was described in the speech yesterday with a strange amalgam of business and human rights:

    Turning to some of our specific security priorities, we have excellent
    cooperation with Kazakhstan on non-proliferation issues ranging from
    proliferation prevention to improvement of the regulatory framework for
    strategic trade controls, and we look forward to building on our
    cooperation on mutual security concerns with complementing progress in
    human rights, and labor and religious freedoms.

    It's too bad we couldn't have that "religious freedoms" for Uzbekistan, too.

    Then for Kyrgyzstan, hopefully not by design, no mention of human rights but something about "services". Is there a "service" citizens can sign up for to get equal treatment under the law if they are ethnic minorities like Uzbeks?

    In Kyrgyzstan, which also hosts the Manas Transit Center through
    which all of our troops going to Afghanistan pass, we are helping the
    new democratically-elected government to reform the security sector and
    to address issues related to corruption and rule of law. We are also
    helping the government improve services for citizens.

    The NDN continues to be vital despite resumption of relations with Pakistan and truck routes opening:

    The Northern Distribution Network,
    or NDN, is perhaps the clearest example of the benefits to the U.S. our
    security engagement with the Central Asian countries has yielded. Over
    the past year, we have seen how the NDN provided critically important
    alternate routes for our non-lethal cargo transiting to and from
    Afghanistan, particularly when we were experiencing challenging moments
    in our relationship with Pakistan.

    I do wonder a) whether small business get to contract with the NDN or only the big state cronies and b) how that GM plant, which was reducing its output, is doing and c) whether there is any really stringent review going on of the corruption issue in contracts, per the waiver passed last year that still provided for six-month reviews.

    But here's the part that is new — or at least, articulated with more emphasis, and contains the seeds of concerns about further militarization of the relationship with Central Asian dictatorships, and their own further militarization throughout the region. Many people think of 2014 as a kind of cliff, after which US troops come home and only a few remain behind to turn off the lights. But the Administration now describes the post-withdrawal period as a Transformation Decade , and that Transformation Decade actually includes, well, the continued presence of troops:

    In addition to our important bilateral security relationships, the
    United States helps facilitate increased regional coordination and
    support for Afghanistan. The Central Asian countries are vital partners
    in support of the International Security Assistance Force’s efforts
    against the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan, especially as
    Afghanistan increasingly takes the lead for its own security, as it has
    done now for over 75 percent of its population. None of us has an
    interest in seeing Afghanistan ever again become a platform from which
    Al-Qaida or others could attack our homeland.

    The Central Asian countries will remain important partners as a NATO
    Enduring Presence replaces the ISAF mission in 2014, and as Afghanistan
    embarks upon its Transformation Decade between 2015 and 2024.
    Afghanistan will increase coordination with NATO on internal security
    and with its neighbors on shared issues such as border security and
    combating flows of narcotics and other contraband [emphasis added].

    The United States is likely to maintain a presence in Afghanistan,
    the particulars of which will be negotiated over the next year. We are
    committed to the success of Afghanistan’s security transition and to
    regional security, and we have communicated this commitment to our
    Central Asian partners.

    Certainly there will be a lot less troops in Afghanistan, but I wonder if it's fair to say there will be more military advisor presence then in neighbouring Central Asia — for a number of reasons, including the fact that the Central Asian governmentgs will want to have some US troops as a counter to Russian troops, and as a deterrent to Islamic insurgency springboarding from Afghanistan.

    As for the concept of "Afghanistan as platform for Al Qaeda," I think the way to think about this is more like this: Al Qaeda is the platform from which attacks on our homeland and our diplomats abroad are launched. Or: Al Qaeda is the software that can be installed on any platform to attack our homeland and our diplomats abroad. And it seems pretty permanently installed in Afghanistan.

    (more…)

  • Karimov is Worried About Life After 2014: Would the US Prop Him Up or Leave Him Military Equipment?

    Karimov gov uz
    President Karimov looking chipper in Khorezm. Or at least, after studio retouches. Photo by gov.uz.

    Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov is worried about what will happen after US and NATO troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2014.

    At least, we think he is, but the statement only appears to have been aired on Uzbek-language television and translated by BBC October 11:

    Uzbek President Islom Karimov has
    said his country needs to prepare itself for possible security
    challenges as NATO plans to leave neighbouring Afghanistan in 2014.

    He was speaking on his tour of the northwestern region of Xorazm on 9
    October, in remarks broadcast on Uzbek TV the following day. The
    remarks came in a special TV broadcast detailing the president's visit
    to the region.

    "We need to be prepared. The
    departure of the US troops tomorrow will bring unrest to Afghanistan.
    This will bring us unrest with all sorts of disasters coming close to
    our doorstep. We must not forget the events we went through in the 1990s
    and the 2000s.
    When we say Uzbekistan looks to the future, not just today, this means
    we should build a strong army, one that is second to none. We must give
    this a thought too," the president said, as he spoke to heads of local
    farms.

    But the full text of his speech on the Foreign Ministry and other government websites doesn't contain any remarks about Afghanistan. Instead, the speech is filled up with those sort of fun facts that Soviet-style dictators love to dazzle poor farmers with — "Currently, 88 percent of general schools in the region are outfitted with gyms, compared to the 63 percent back in 2003" or "96,300 young men and women in Khorezm region are currently pursuing
    knowledge and grasping [sic] modern vocations at the ninety-one academic
    lyceums and professional colleges." No doubt to keep their minds off jihad

    There's also a small business boom, the president claims — and who knows, maybe some of them might have a chance to get lucrative contracts from US businesses eager to supply the NDN (but not likely, as they would have to be government approved and probably go to the First Family's cronies in big state corporations).  Who does get lucky from the US government-sponsored "Industry Days"?  As you can see from this slide show on surface contracts in the CENTCOM region, the US military wants to use "locally procured goods". How is that working out? Where could we find this information?

    No doubt Karimov *is* worried about what will happen in 2014, but given all the attacks on NATO by the Taliban and their allies, and the "green on blue" attacks and such, how is the US going to get out, well, gracefully? The GLOC  (ground line of communications) appears to have been restored from Pakistan but of course with lots of protest from parliament (i.e. government proxies), complaints that NATO caused millions of dollars of damage to Pakistani roads, and a view that Islamabad "surrendered" by accepting apologies finally from a civilian and not a military leader, and not even taking fees (after the US complaining about "price-gouging").

    Even though the US and Pakistan have a deal signed through 2015, that doesn't mean the NDN won't go away because Pakistan has showed it can shut off the spigot, and security issues obviously remain. 

    So one can't rule out the idea — although the speculation has subsided — that NATO might need to leave heavy equipment in the neighbouring stans.

    There was some flurry of commentary when Uzbekistan opted out of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that it was preparing itself mentally and legally to cooperate with NATO — and even restoration of the US base.

    Certainly that's the frank position of regional analysts like Kazakhstan's Murat Lamulin:

    The forthcoming withdrawal of the Western coalition troops from
    Afghanistan and possible deployment of weapons and, probably, U.S.
    operating bases on the territory of some Central Asian countries is
    creating a new situation in the region. It is in this context that one
    should probably view Tashkent’s decision to “suspend” its membership in
    the Collective Security Treaty Organization, announced in late June this
    year. The CSTO Charter prohibits the deployment of third countries’
    military bases on the territories of the allied countries. Uzbekistan’s
    withdrawal removes legal barriers for it to host any military hardware
    of NATO, including weapons that NATO forces would like to leave on their
    way from Afghanistan.

    This piece on a Russian media-sponsored site just makes common sense — if the US faces problems as it withdraws from Afghanistan or experiences problems again with Pakistan, and if Uzbekistan is worried about defense, then it is fast, cheap and easy for the US to leave these heavy lethal vehicles in Uzbekistan — although of course there's the obstacle that the NDN agreements provide only for non-lethal deliveries. (I wonder if there is a loophole here — the agreements were for equipment going in — what about equipment coming out? The agreement was signed with the stans last June to take the equipment out.)

    Of course, Karimov is all about playing the great powers off against each other in classic fashion. Even though ultimately Karimov pulled out of the CSTO in late June, when he met with Putin in early June, the two leaders said NATO's withdrawal would mean they would step up their own cooperation, uznews.net reported.

    The Uzbek president stressed that the withdrawal of foreign military
    personnel from Afghanistan before a competent army is set up may
    destabilise the country and the region as a whole.


    “If this problem is not resolved, if it is not fully exposed as it truly
    is, I think many things will unravel later, and we will simply miss the
    moment,” Karimov said.

    “This directly concerns the security of the Russian Federation itself.
    Cooperation with our Uzbekistani partners is extremely important for
    us,” the Russian president told a news conference

    But as uznews.net pointed out, "On the same day when the Uzbek and Russian presidents met, Nato in
    Brussels stroke a deal with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan on the
    transit of military freight from Afghanistan, UzDaily.uz website has
    reported." 

    There's also discussion that the US might sell weapons to Uzbekistan (It seems much more likely that they'd just leave military equipment behind in Uzbekistan). Columbia University's Alexander Cooley has suggested in The New York Times that the US would sell weapons to Tashkent:

    Most controversially of all, NATO and the Central Asian states are still
    negotiating over the potential transfer of military equipment, used by
    coalition forces in Afghanistan, to Central Asian governments’ security
    services, which have a bloody human rights record.


    In January, the Obama administration lifted a ban on foreign military
    sales to Uzbekistan, on national security grounds, to allow for sales of
    counterterrorism equipment. American officials insist that such future
    transfers will include only nonlethal items, but the Uzbek government
    has long sought items like armored personnel carriers, helicopters and
    drones, which could be used to suppress protests.

    Joshua Foust naturally finds this a "conspiracy" to even entertain this idea:

    There is no basis in US law, official US policy, or anything US
    officials have said about their plans for the regime, that indicate even
    a distant interest in selling weapons to Tashkent.

    So what? Laws get changed — as we saw the law change last year barring military aid to Uzbekistan due to the Andijan massacre in 2005 and its appalling human rights record. Exigencies exist, emergencies happen, whatever.  Foust notes that the Uzbeks start high and negotiate down and that Cooley is just reporting rumors from his trips to Uzbekistan.

    At least Cooley travels to the region, unlike Foust, and what he reports tracks with what regional analysts are saying.  I can't imagine why anyone would be so adamant about the US *not* doing this, and in such a fury to slam colleagues in the field for reporting the matter-of-fact horse-trading likely going on. What's this really about? Often these rampages of Foust's seem to be only about trying to position himself as a quotable expert to get more media attention and possibly some kind of better job than "fellow" at ASP — in Obama II's State Department where Sen. John Kerry or some other comrade could be secretary of state.

    The venerable Walter Pincus speaks up against doing business with tyrants and quotes former CENTCOM head Adm. William Fallon:

    “We would envision, and this is already with the agreement of the
    Afghan government, that this place would be the enduring facility . . .
    within that country by which we would provide continuing support to
    that nation, and hopefully be able to use that facility for other things
    in the region.”

    Pincus concludes: "Let’s hope those “other things” don’t include military operations to
    keep in power Washington’s current “allies,” such as the current rulers
    in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan." 

    And sudden Foust tut kak tut  — blasting Pincus for his "curious bit of hand-wringing" and supposed exaggeration. Foust converts Pincus' legitimate concern about helping to keep these tyrants in power — especially given already-existing efforts that bolst them, with this:   "where on earth would he get the impression that anyone in Washington
    wants to defend Nazarbayev or Berdimuhamedov against a coup?

    But there's a difference between the US siding with Berdymukhamedov or Nararbayev or Karimov in a coup where they faced challenges from, say, insiders in the security of military sectors or oligarchs — and the US helping these regimes fight off terrorists that might or might not be actual Islamist terrorists.  The US would probably not mix in if, say, Russia-based Uzbek tycoon Alisher Usmanov decided he wanted to replace Karimov — that would be fighting the Kremlin, too. But if some band of terrorists with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Afghan police or Taliban launched some raid to destabilize Karimov, sure, the existing US special forces who already advise Tashkent and have a closer relationship now with the Karimov government might intervene in a pinch — we don't know. We can't be sure. There's nothing wrong with pointing up this scenario as one of the many bad things to come after 2014.

     


    The US Army helped build the railway to Mazar-e-Sharif to ship supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan. Video by American Forces Network Afghanistan.

  • State Gets a Bit More Starchy on Turkmenistan

    Dragon Oil 1 gov tm
    Dragon Oil rig in Caspian. Photo by Turkmenistan Golden Age 2012.

    State Department officials are usually very circumspect when it comes to Turkmenistan, a gas-rich and freedom-poor authoritarian Central Asian nation on the Caspian Sea. Turkmenistan is far more closed than Uzbekistan — there are hardly any human rights activists or opposition figures there. Hence virtually no one for lonely foreign officials to visit, when they might get a few hours free from their minders, and have nothing to do but rattle around in the huge white marble city in the "dictator chic" genre, with broad avenues and desert-dry air.

    So that's why it's news when all of a sudden, in testimony to the US Congress, Robert O. Blake, Jr., Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, whose statements are generally as bland as canned pears, suddenly puts the phrases "pipeline" and "human rights" and "transparency" all into one paragraph:

    The recent signing of gas sales and purchase agreements between Turkmenistan, Pakistan and India enables the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline to move to the commercial phase. This project is one example of the potential Turkmenistan has to be a leader in the economic prosperity of the region. We encourage Turkmenistan to build clear and transparent mechanisms for investment in its country.

    In order to realize its potential, Turkmenistan must make significant steps to fulfill its international obligations on human rights. The United States consistently raises concerns about respect for human rights at every appropriate opportunity and we have offered assistance to help advance space for civil society and building democratic systems.

    That's exceptional, because in recent years, the US has been so eager to court the hard-to-get President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and line up some business with him, especially for American oil companies, that they have tended to keep any comments about human rights to carefully-choreographed private discussions. To be sure, this was a hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Europe and Eurasia, where officials can expect a little more questioning than usual, but still, the rhetoric seems more edgy than in the past.

    So, why is this happening now?

    Well, for one, the US has been persisting in trying to work with the Turkmens now for the more than six years Berdymukhamedov has been in power, and has precious little to show for it. If anything, despite finally installing a new ambassador after a five-year hiatus, holding special business exhibitions and promotions, offering help and training and educational opportunities, the Americans have at times been kicked in the teeth. Peace Corps members with visas and air tickets in hand have been suddenly delayed and gradually their numbers whittled down to little or nothing. Students ready to leave at the airport for exchange programs are pulled off programs.  Chevron and others are seemingly promised an offshore drilling permit, then never get any — and they'd rather be onshore anyway. US officials work overtime trying to fix these situations up, and it's all kind of mysterious. Now why do the Turkmens do that? After all, we are paying them top dollar to use their country as a re-fueling station for planes bound to supply NATO troops in Afghanistan with non-lethal equipment.

    What's up? Perhaps the "multi-vector policy" that rotates so widely from China to Iran to Qatar to Austria to Belarus to England and seems so affable with so many other countries with so many high-level meetings has its saw-toothed edge? Nothing shows you're independent like bashing America! The pudgy dictator has had 249 meetings with foreign dignitaries in the last year! Ok, 317. Alright, I don't know how many exactly but — a lot, and somewhere in the miles of turgid Turkmen wire copy you can find this exact number.

    So because they aren't getting anywhere despite being silent on human rights for all this time, perhaps US officials have decided that they should be a little more forward-leaning. It's a shame that human rights could be seen as a club in that respect, but that is how it's done.

    There could be another reason — Blake and others may be expecting increased NGO protests as the Asian Bank for Development takes the Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Indian (TAPI) pipeline out for its road show this fall to various world capitals, in search of oil majors to help build the project and take on the financing and security headaches that will abound. So pre-emptively, so to speak, State has indicated that they realize there are human rights and "transparency" problems. That's for sure — no one can really be sure just how much money Berdymukhamedov has his hands on — and it all seems to come through his hands — and how much he parts with to try to better his fellow citizens' lot — as distinct from building lots of white palaces.

    Nothing gets NGOs agitated like "the extractive industry" — it easily exemplifies everything they hate about capitalism and commerce, and even if they are not anti-business, they can get behind concern for the environment which is never misplaced when it comes to drilling and pipelines.

    Berdy also seems aware of this protest wave that may crest on his country, and talks up a good story about how pipelines under the sea are less dangerous than those above ground. I don't know how much people want to test those theories in a region that is prone to earthquakes, spills, sabotage (remember the April 2009 explosion?), terrorism and even wars — and of course those vague "shortcomings in performance of work" for which hundreds of officials have been dismissed in the Era of Revival and now the Era of Happiness and Stability.

    Of course, as I'm pointing out, the wrath of NGOs is somewhat misplaced on Turkmenistan, when the American companies which they love best to hate aren't even able to drill an inch into the karakum. China has already spent more than $8 billion building a pipeline out of Turkmenistan to China, and not a single demonstration, newsletter, poster, or even email appeared from the usual Western environmental groups. We have no idea what that very rapidly-build pipeline did to the environment or areas or people in Turkmenistan, and that's not only because it's a closed society, but because nobody cared to chase the Chinese National Petroleum Company — it just doesn't get the juices flowing like US petroleum corporations. In fact, the major Western environmental organizations tend to ignore Central Asia because it's hard to get information.

    The exception is a small adovcacy and research organization called Crude Accountability which has Russian-speakers and a network of colleagues in the region and who have persisted in getting the story of environmental damage and oppression in Central Asian countries. You seldom hear of Greenpeace trying any of its "direct action" protests on ships around Russian and its allies — maybe that's because when local chapters of Greenpeace simply try to hold a rally to protest against Arctic drilling, 23 people are arrested.

    So snarkiness of the predictable adversarial culture really seems misplaced, when a company like Chevron — which in fact has been there all along and isn't "stealing in like a thief" — hasn't even got a deal.  And then there's this — what I always ask people spouting the usual hysteria on forums: what do you cook your breakfast with every morning, firewood? Pipelines exists in a lot of places of the world where protests no longer appear (Alaska) although it might if something goes wrong again (Alaska). We'd all like to live in a world of outdoor solar-powered offices and computers and Burning Man camp-outs like Philip Rosedale, but we're not there yet.

    So it's good to start early and often to hammer on the problem of "lack of transparency," but realistically, it's not going to go anywhere in Turkmenistan until the society experiences much greater changes than have been in the offing since 2006 when past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov died. The Turkmens have figured out (from paying attention to NGOs but not allowing them in their own country) to play the transparency game, and have turned the tables on Chevron and others as I've written, sulking about their supposed lack of transparency for not parting with proprietary technological secrets that no company would part with (say, how about more from the Turkmen side regarding those Gaffney, Clines Associates estimates of the reserves, eh?)

    Turkmenistan is a very hard nut to crack — and nut-cracking in general hasn't gone so well for the US in Central Asia. The US ambassador has actually accomplished a fair amount on his watch, quietly getting some political prisoners freed or getting them family visits and trying to solve the students' cases and keep a positive momentum for both educational exchange and business. There's a theory that trade is a tide that raises all boats. I've never seen that happen in any country in the world. It's claimed for China and Kazakhstan, but we only see continued problems with everything from media suppression to environmental hazards to murders — business doesn't auto-magically install democracy any more than a USAID project does.

    I really don't have a recipe for Turkmenistan other than that more people need to try to go there and report what they see, and more efforts have to be made to get the word out about what happens there, and to pay more attention to those who already get many stories out, such as Chronicles of Turkmenistan. To the extent possible, NGOs should try to follow the TAPI story to see if their interest and efforts to get more information might be some deterrence on the usual bribes and slush funds that abound around things like this.

    Yet I'm skeptical that TAPI will start getting built any time soon, or that Western companies will even be involved in it, and the X marked on the map where the backhoes are going to appear may be right at the Turkmen border, not inside Turkmenistan, as Ashgabat continually repeats the refrain that they will "sell their gas at the border," and Europeans and others are taking them more at their word since the collapse of the ambitious Nabucco project.

    In any event, the gas-hungry rapidly-developing countries of China and India aren't going to care a whole lot about what Westerners tell them about how they should avoid all the things that Westerners take for granted like gas-guzzling personal cars and invest instead on environmental protection and mass transport. What any environmental campaign has to start with, however, is a newsletter — a newsletter that nobody is yet able to publish in Ashgabat.

     

     

  • The Monkey Cage of Uzbekistan and the Anti-NATO Protests of Chicago

    Anti-Nato
    Catholic Workers protest May 14 in Chicago, Photo by Steve Rhodes.

    The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE or the Helsinki Commission) held a briefing yesterday on political prisoners in Central Asia.

    Dr. Sanjar Umarov, head of the Sunshine Coalition, spoke about his awful experiences as a political prisoner.

    A dapper middle-aged businessman who started a reform movement in Uzbekistan, Umarov spent four years under brutal treatment in Uzbekistan's prisons, until finally he was released and permitted to be reunited with his family, who live in Tennessee.

    For an hour in a hot Washington, DC room at the Rayburn House Office Building, Umarov patiently answered the questions of Congressman Steve Cohen (D-Tennessee), a commissioner of CSCE with an impressive record advocating for human rights, about the details of his torture in prison. Umarov was repeatedly incarcerated in a cramped cell known among the prisoners as "the monkey cell," a small space of 3 x 1 meters with bars, a cold cement floor, no amenities, and an open window even when the temperature was 10 degrees. Umarov was first thrown in this punishment cell for objecting during a political education session to the fact that President Islam Karimov extended his rule in violation of the constitutional limits on the term of presidents.

    I will post a link to the video and transcript when it is ready at csce.gov, it is devastating, and a must-see to understand the kind of dictatorship we are dealing with when we do business with Karimov.

    Richard Solash of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has a good summary of the briefing here. As it was a briefing, as distinct from a hearing, the floor was open to the public to ask questions. I asked whether there was any intention to make a protest about the political prisoners of Central Asia and the terrible conditions they were being held by directing it to the NATO summit. President Karimov himself and the Central Asian foreign ministers or other ministers will be attending.  I asked if the closer relationship that the US now had to maintain with the Central Asian powers since losing the route through Pakistan had any impact on the human rights situation, and whether the exigency of having to maintain the GLOC (as the military calls the Ground Lines of Communication) or Northern Distribution Network (NDN) through Uzbekistan meant the US felt constrained in raising human rights issues.

    My long-time colleague Catherine Cosman of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom replied:

    "Many believe that because of the NDN, politically speaking, the United States is in a weaker position to raise human rights concerns with these governments. Personally, I believe that, in fact, it's the opposite, because these governments are extremely corrupt and the U.S. government pays a lot for these transit routes and so the officials in these governments stand to gain personally," she said.

    "So I would say that, in fact, if [the United States] raises human rights cases and makes use of NDN connection in that way, we could see human rights gains."

    The payment is $500 million for all of them, Dierdre Tynan of eurasianet.org reports, but we don't know the particulars of each country's payment and the duration of the deal. The deal with Pakistan today is described in the Tribune of Pakistan as $365 million for the year, or something like $1500 or $4000 a load.

    The Department of Defense may see this "opportunity to raise human rights" as a bug and not a feature, but that wouldn't stop the Department of Human Rights, Labor and Democracy from making a statement — so far the US government limits its vocal statements about political prisoners in Uzbekistan, although in connection with Press Freedom Day on May 3, they included one Uzbek prisoner, Dilmurod Sayid, a journalist jailed for uncovering local corruption who is now ill with tuberculosis, on the website established for the occasion.

    Umarov said there were many deaths in detention, often of tuberculosis and AIDS, and many suicides, but it was difficult to tell if some of them were in fact victims of torture. He described the long days waiting in the cell, hearing the old van used for picking up bodies to take to the morgue creakily approaching, grinding to a halt, the rasping of the door opening, the footsteps, and then the van departing. It was very eerie and sad, and we aren't doing enough about this.

    I wondered if any of the groups demonstrating in Chicago this weekend and throughout the summit could take up the issue of political prisoners. I wrote to one of the community organizers and a few of the OWS on Twitter, but didn't get answers. OWS is preoccupied with the usual radical agenda — focusing only on the deaths of civilians killed in NATO's attacks on Libya (under 100), yet with nothing to say about the tens of thousands of civilians killed by the Taliban in Afghanistan, which kills 85 percent of the people in this war. In fact, in their call for the demonstration in Chicago, Code Pink deliberately books these deaths to NATO (in the same way they do with the 100,000 civilians deaths in the Iraq War), which is really duplicitous and morally wrong. They seem to be unable to find a way to condemn both NATO's killing of civilians, and the killing of civilians by the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and other deadly militant and terrorist groups. This has always been the problem with the anti-war movement, and it never changes in the 40 years I've been following it, with the exception of a few organizations with a broader vision.

    And somehow the issue of the political prisoners just never comes up on their radar, because they are focusing only on pulling out troops and converting the funds to assist with combating global warming, and not focusing on the larger human rights and humanitarian issues of the region. They've turned out Afghan emigres in Chicago to protest the war, and turned out immigrants to protest the immigration law (one protester has already been arrested for assaulting the police). But as I used to see with the peace movements of the 1980s and 1990s, they cannot seem to find a way to protest against any kind of militarism but NATO's, and therefore inevitably help reinforce NATO's mission, in a kind of backward way.

    One group that is colouring outside the lines of this heavily pre-cooked protest agenda is the Awareness Project International, an Arizona-based group originally created to organize summer camps for youth abroad to raise awareness of human rights, HIV/AIDS and global warming.  Lately they seem to have more Uzbeks involved (and even heading it) and have taken on more than just education, but will be protesting forced child labor in the Uzbek cotton industry.

    I was glad to see at least some group is going to Chicago to protest something about Uzbekistan, our main partner in the NDN to supply NATO troups in Afghanistan.

    The group is going to focus on forced child labour, which was the focus of a picket line related to Fashion Week last year — perhaps they could add on political prisoners and call for their release and an end to torture.

    I've written about Dmitriy Nurullayev and this group before and the complex issues of how their harassment was covered— he was one of the two students who organized a summer youth camp in Uzbekistan on these topics of AIDS and human rights, and then was interrogated by the security police. Evidently he decided not to return to Uzbekistan.

    It may be hard to stand out with this singular message around Uzbekistan during the NATO protests — there will be the din of radicalism everywhere and likely direct action and even violence and multiple arrests precisely because the protesters will go beyond the bounds of lawful assembly into civil disobedience — and as OWS often does, play the victim instead of taking their arrests like a man, which is the deal when you commit civil disobedience, you know?

    But for the long term, groups like Awareness Project, which evidently got the endorsement of the International Labor Rights Forum for this protest, can try to work with the OWS and anti-NATO protesters and get them to broaden their focus and campaigning from the myopic obsession with only America, and only the US as the imagined great evil of the world, and look at the very powers that NATO cites to justify its existence, which is the nuclear power of Russia which still maintains its political prisoners today, and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization like Uzbekistan.

    They could also take up the issues of political prisoners, as Dr. Umarov once was.

    UPDATE:  Dmitriy Nurullayev has just contacted me to say that they have added the issue of political prisoners and torture to their banners for Chicago. I hope they will be able to get their voices heard about the din.

  • Tajikistan — the Weak Link in the Chain of the US Exit from Afghanistan?

    Zarifi
    Foreign Minister Zarifi greets Clinton in Dushanbe last October. Photo by US Embassy Dushanbe.

    Pakistan — with whom we still haven't agreed about resumption of the transit of non-lethal military goods to Afghanistan — usually gets all the attention when people talk about the vulnerabilities around the US exit from Afghanistan.

    But there's all of Central Asia, too.

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Tajikistan's Foreign Minister today for talks in Washington.

    Foreign Minister Zarifi is here in the US to attend the NATO summit next week in Chicago. None of the Central Asian presidents are coming — hey, no need to bow and scrape. But they're invited because of how vital these countries are to the Northern Distribution Network, so they are at least sending their foreign ministers. And they should do that much, given that collectively, they get $500 million from the US for their right-of-a-way through their countries, and they should see this in some way as "their" war (but don't).

    Why? Because Tajikistan is next to Afghanistan, and when we pull out our troops in 2014, what's going to blow, besides the thin veneer of urban secularism in Kabul holding back the Taliban? The Afghan border of Tajikistan, that's what, and that's of concern because Tajikistan is the poorest of the post-Soviet states and now racking up increasing incidents of terrorist attacks and the arrests and trials of extremist groups that seem to then fuel more terrorist attacks. Tajikistan is also next to Iran and shares the ancient Persian civilization.

    It's a place where children still get polio — surely a shortfall of the international community's care. although after 32 cases, the UN responded with another immunization program. If you have a poor childhood do you get to be a terrorist? No, of course not, and terrorists are often urban educated middle class people.  But they develop a message that can be attractive to poor people who have no recourse. We don't know very much about the people in group trials of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Tajikistan and other Central Asian states.

    It's a state from which a large part of the population leave for migrant work in Russia, where they are treated poorly (of the 50 or 60 or so migrant workers murdered in Russia in hate crimes every year, most are Tajiks). More than a quarter of the Tajik economy is made up of remittances from migrant laborer. Tajikistan weathered a civil war in which the largest number of journalists in the world were killed (about 50), after Algeria — in the same pattern, by both the state and the Islamist militants).

    Government nervousness about extremism is said in fact to have fueled unrest, some believe — there's a tough new religion law that punishes even parents taking their children to the mosque. For the first time the US Commission on International Religious Freedom urged the State Department to give Tajikistan the desigation of "country of particular concern" for its deteriorating stae of religious rights.

    I want to think a lot more about the hydraulic theory of terrorism that is so very, very common everywhere among human rights groups, think tanks, the government — that is, that the very brutal tactics that the Central Asian governments use, or the US uses in the drone war and in counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism, are what create new rebels and terrorists. That's the operating conclusion and most find it to be true because indeed it does seem to follow a pattern. This is one of those debates people may have forever. Does the death penalty deter crime? No, it doesn't, crime increases. Did the death penalty at least remove that one murderer? Yes, but another sprang up in his place. And so on.

    Certainly when you take a BBC reporter, charge him on suspicions of Islamic extremism merely because he reported on Hizb-ut-Tahir followers, beat him, throw him in jail, mistreat him for weeks, before finally letting him go after an international outcry, you haven't made a friend for life. Think of what we heard from the Pakistani lawyer discussing the claims of his clients who became victims of US drone attacks they become militarized because they have no redress. Why are people in Hizb-ut-Tahir? Because they have no sense of redress — no place to go where their grievances are heard and addressed. Even doing part one of this proposition can go a long way to ameliorating distress in a population in dire straights, but even that part isn't done well when you tell people they can't take their children to a place of worship.

    Whatever the dynamics, the US military seems sufficiently concerned to be trying to bolster Tajikistan now as a weak link in the exit strategy — if the war spills over from Tajikistan into Afghanistan, or if it becomes a fuel pump for the revival of the civil war between a secular state and its supporters and Islamic groups, then the US is making more problems than it is solving by leaving.

    Back in March, CentCom promised increased military aid to Tajikistan to buy equipment, Avesta reports:

    Noting the "buffer" role of Tajikistan in the prevention and spreading the threats of terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking, Mattis emphasized that the U.S. is going to provide the technical assistance to the border guards and other security and law enforcement agencies in Tajikistan.

    As throughout the war in Afghanistan and other wars, there's a confusion and conflation between war-fighting and police work — so here's U.S. Army Central Command James Mattis in Dushanbe, our top army guy for the region meeting President Rakhmon to give assurances about support for equipment of police to fight terrorism. So there's a war on terror, but it's fought with support, training and equipment to police (and not army, although presumably they are trained, too.)

    The budget is $1.5 million for this year. That's not really very much. Although it's part of a full aid package of $19.1 million:

    Tajikistan ($19.1 million): U.S. assistance is focused on ensuring the stability of Tajikistan,
    particularly in light of the military drawdown in Afghanistan. Programs will seek to strengthen local governance and improve education. Funding will also be used to increase food security by seeking to solve systemic problems that contribute to food shortages such as inequitable access to water,  inadequate supplies of seeds and fertilizer, a lack of modern technologies, and poor farm practices.

    What is training and bolstering and what does it accomplish? It's not like people who fought a civil war for six years killing tens of thousands need to learn how to fight. Presumably they need to learn how to fight more professionally and…democratically…or something

    I keep seeing the images so vividly relayed by Kim Barker in the Taliban Shuffle, the trainees waving their guns around and shooting in the air and shooting themselves in the foot by accident — and then grimly, the incidents where the trained Afghan army then shoots US soldiers. Why? Is that, er, poor training? Or is resentment building over things like the accidental Koran burning? Or was it that they were never really on our side to start with? Or are they set up by other forces in Pakistan intelligence? Or what's the deal?

    At least — if I've read this correctly — we're giving the Tajiks nearly as much for health ($1.2 million) as we are in military aid, and that's good news.

    Open Society Institute complained two years ago that the US gives more in military aid to Central Asia than it does for democracy programs. I'm the first to complain about state-tropic baggy USAID programs and don't confuse them with more effective NED or Freedom House programs that are more directly useful in helping civil society groups. Except that these organizations are expelled from most of the Central Asian countries and their grantees sometimes wind up in jail and it's actually hard to spend civil society grant money in this area of the world because of the Zen of foundation work: if it were the kind of place where you could give money easily to good causes, it wouldn't need your help.

    I think it would be worth going over the budgets again and looking at the non-military but non-democdracy aid that is related to health, labor, women, etc. that may be of significant help to this poor country — unless of course it's all being siphoned into the president's relatives pockets or something.

     

     

     

  • Textbooks Tied Up at Karachi Airport, NDN Still Closed

    Karachi Airport
    Karachi Airport, 2008. Photo by plasticshore.

    Four million childrens' textbooks destined for Afghanistan schools stuck at the Karachi airport — that's just one of the problems created by the closure of the Northern Distribution Network, the distribution route for supplying NATO troops in Afghanistan, as we learn from today's press briefing at the State Department. After a series of altercations with the US, including Pakistani outrage that they weren't clued in to the raid on Osama bin Ladn on their territory, and after 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed by US troops in a raid, Pakistan refused to allow transit through their land to Afghanistan, idling hundreds of trucks and holding uploads all over.

    Recently when the Pakistani lawyer Shahzad Akbar was here in New York speaking on behalf of his clients, victims of US drone attacks, I asked him why he thought the US wasn't apologizing, and why the US apology of "regret" wasn't enough. I was among the people in the audience asking whether in fact we were at war with Pakistan. Of course we aren't, formally, but then, lots of wars happen that aren't formally declared or supported by Congress. There is this fiction always around Pakistan that they are allies in the war on terrorism, get their intelligence people are always helping the Taliban, or their own franchised Taliban — which is why the US didn't trust them with logistical information about the bin Ladn raid.

    Now, this strike against the 24 was in my mind's eye, after only reading the newspapers like anyone else, was an example of "an accident" or perhaps "friendly fire". If it *were* friendly fire, however, why couldn't we apologize more profusely? After all, we apologize profusely for far less, like accidently burning the Koran or allowing a soldier with a history of violence to be  overdeployed a few too many times to kill a dozen villagers on a rampage.

    I've wondered about this. Was there more to it with the incident itself or the relationship with the Pakistanis?

    Akbar simply pointed out that the attack was by helicopters, not drones, and lasted two-and-a-half hours. You have to wonder how something that lasted two-and-a-half hours was "accidental". And that even if you got accidental targeting data about supposed militants on the border that were in fact Pakistani soldiers, how could you keep shooting and killing for two-and-a-half hours without somebody finally reaching you and telling you to knock it off, it was the wrong people?

    But we are not apologizing, possibly because this was a firefight with a unit that we believed was on the wrong side..or something…and because we're not apologizing, we're not inviting the Pakistanis to the NATO summit…and because we're not inviting them they aren't opening up the NDN, after there were a number of reports that they were relenting on this, and we were going to pay them now a lot of money, which they realized they needed now.

    Another thing that puzzles me is why famed Twittering defense analyst Joshua Foust writes "Dear NATO: excluding Pakistan and Iran from a summit about Afghanistan's future is not a smart decision."

    Well, they won't re-open the NDN? What's a military alliance to do? Why would they invite them to their summit, which is about the future of NATO, really, not so much the future of Afghanistan? They're leaving Afghanistan. If Pakistan is not interested in helping NATO leave, and is interested in making it as costly for NATO as possible, what cooperation can they expect from the US?

    Here's the text of the news conference:

    QUESTION: Do you have any updates on the status of the discussions with the Pakistanis over the reopening of the transit – of the supply routes? The foreign – the Pakistani foreign minister said this morning that they think that they have made their point now with the shutoff of the routes, and – which many are taking to be a suggestion that they’re about ready to allow you guys to start using them again. What is the status of that? And is there any update on whether they will be going to Chicago or not?

    MS. NULAND: Our team is still in Islamabad working on the land route issue. My understanding this morning is that they have made considerable progress, but they are still working. They are not yet finished with the Pakistanis. I don’t have any further update from what we said on Friday with regard to an invitation to Pakistan from NATO for the summit in Chicago. You heard what Secretary General Rasmussen had to say, but I don’t have anything further.

    QUESTION: And then just on – well, on the talks, who is – who’s got the lead on this? Is it you or is it the Pentagon?

    MS. NULAND: My understanding is that —

    QUESTION: And so when you’re saying “our team,” who is that?

    MS. NULAND: — is that it’s an interagency team I believe the State Department is leading. It’s at a technical level, but let me get that for you, Matt.

    QUESTION: Is —

    QUESTION: Still on Pakistan?

    QUESTION: Just to follow up?

    MS. NULAND: Please.

    QUESTION: Is Pakistan – during those meetings there, is Pakistan attaching any sort of preconditions before they’re able to open these routes, like levying new taxes or something like that?

    MS. NULAND: Well, again, I’m not going to get into the substance of the discussion, but we’re having a full review with the Government of Pakistan on how this transit system works, and all of the issues are on the table in that context.

    QUESTION: And how important is that to the invitation about the – Chicago summit?

    MS. NULAND: Well, I think you heard what Secretary General Rasmussen said. He didn’t make a direct link. He did say, however, that this is something that we want to resolve, that we think is important to resolve, and it’s important for support for Afghanistan.

    QUESTION: Okay. And lastly, Foreign Minister Khar this morning said that there will be problems for Pakistan if land routes are not reopened. So has something been conveyed by that interagency team or the U.S. Administration to Pakistan during those meetings or otherwise to prompt that kind of a statement?

    MS. NULAND: Well, I haven’t seen her statement, but I think you know this is an issue that we’ve been working on for a long time, that it’s an issue that is something that we’ve tried to cooperate with Pakistan on for a long time. The Secretary and Foreign Minister Khar spoke – I think it was a couple of days before Ambassador Grossman traveled to Islamabad to kick off the whole reengagement strategy. And it was in that context that we began the formal negotiations on the GLOCs [Ground Lines of Communication]. So it’s good news if Foreign Minister Khar is making positive statements about the importance of this for Pakistan, for Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, for their relationship with us. But as I said, we haven’t yet completed the negotiations.

    QUESTION: Just to follow up with this?

    MS. NULAND: Yes.

    QUESTION: At the same time, she also said, and also the prime minister of Pakistan, that before doors are opened, certain demands must be met by the U.S., which were given beforehand. Is there any comments? Or what are those demands? Or is U.S. ready to move forward?

    MS. NULAND: Well again, I think I said here that there is a full discussion underway about all aspects of this, but we haven’t yet come to a conclusion on all the pieces.

    Yeah.

    QUESTION: Can I ask you —

    MS. NULAND: Yeah.

    QUESTION: — something different one – related to Pakistan. Do you have any comments or any information that former Pakistan ambassador to U.S., Mr. Haqqani, he’s seeking U.S. citizenship or maybe he has applied for the U.S. citizenship?

    MS. NULAND: I don’t have any information on that. But that, in any event, would be a question for the Department of Homeland Security.

    QUESTION: Just going back to the negotiations for a second?

    QUESTION: Pakistan —

    MS. NULAND: No – yeah.

    QUESTION: The interagency – one of the demands – that the Pakistanis have had for a long time before they would reopen this was an apology for the – full-on, not this kind of half apology regrets that this and previous administrations are so fond of using. Do you know if the team that’s there is – do they have the power or authority to apologize on behalf of the United States if that is indeed a Pakistani demand to reopen the supply lines? Or is that issue, as far as you’re concerned, done?

    MS. NULAND: Well, the team that’s working on this is a technical team. They are looking at the issues of how you move things from here to there and what the terms for moving them are.

    QUESTION: Okay. So they couldn’t – they wouldn’t be in a position to offer an apology if you just —

    MS. NULAND: That question is outside their purview. But I think as —

    QUESTION: But in – so, okay. Regardless of whether it’s outside or inside their purview, and you’re saying it’s outside, but is that issue for the United States done now? Is that – that’s over?

    MS. NULAND: I think we’ve said that we very much regret this incident and we want to move forward and we want to reengage.

    Hello, Nicole.

    QUESTION: Pakistan?

    MS. NULAND: Please.

    QUESTION: Last week, students and parents of Afghanistan urged the Government of Pakistan to – as you know, 4 million textbooks of Afghanistan are lying stranded at the Karachi airport after those routes were closed following November 26th incident. This issue has been taken up by the Afghan president himself at the highest level, but nothing has made – nothing – new progress has been made so far. Are you aware of the issue, and why the children of Afghanistan are suffering through no fault of theirs?

    MS. NULAND: I wasn’t aware of this issue, but it makes sense in the context of the land routes being closed. And it speaks to the larger issue that it’s not just about support for the ISAF mission; it’s about support for Afghanistan in general, and in this case the children of Afghanistan.

    QUESTION: Staying on Afghanistan?

    MS. NULAND: Please.

    QUESTION: Any comment on the —

    QUESTION: Has the U.S. taken up this issue with the Pakistani authorities?

    MS. NULAND: On the particular issue of the textbooks, I don’t have any information. But as I said, we are working very hard on the land routes.

    Yeah.

    QUESTION: As you’re aware, an Afghan peace negotiator was killed over the weekend. Any comment on that? And what does it say about your strategy of Afghan-led talks to try to find a political end to the conflict?

    MS. NULAND: Arshad, I think the White House actually issued a statement on this issue on Saturday or on Sunday. But let me just reiterate here that the United States strongly condemns the assassination of Afghan High Peace Council member Arsala Rahmani. The High Peace Council has been working for a durable and long-term peace in Afghanistan, and those who attack members of the Peace Council are out of step with the Afghan people.

    With regard to the larger question of our efforts to try to foster an Afghan-Afghan process of reconciliation, we remain committed to trying. It’s the Afghan – it’s the Taliban who have put a pause on the talks, as Ambassador Grossman and others have made clear.