• Why is Our Military So Screwed up? (Response to Schindler’s “On Conscription and Military Effectiveness”)

    Let me put it in a nutshell — I'm a supporter of national armies, I'm not a pacifist, even if I have objections to the war in Iraq or aspects of the war in Afghanistan and the drones program on moral grounds. I think we live in a dangerous world with really awful and nasty enemies that we didn't create by warring against them or their proxies, who are really evil all on their own. I'm not so sure the surge was a great idea, and we pretty much lost the war in Afghanistan, which I find awful, as I do know something about this region, and I think it will definitely go downhill into worse security and more instability and poverty for the people of Eurasia and South Asia.

    But while we can argue about whether this or that war makes sense, or this or that way of pursuing the war, or whether "special wars" (clandestine and even illegal intelligence operations) have to take the place of massive armies marching in the night and people dying in the mud, there has to be a discussion about what I see is a looming moral problem.

    Why is the military so messed up? We've had a military that has *created* and *not saved us from* harm by giving us Manning, Snowden, McCrystal, Petraeus, Bales, and Carey — to mention just some of the most lurid, most destructive figures who have been through our armed forces and have objectively wound up hurting their own countries tremendously.

    Why is that? Why did this happen?

    So let me go through my thinking on this:

    I know it's Christmas, but I really couldn't take it more — the lastest "returning soldier surprise" story was the straw that broke the camel's back for me.

    I know for some it's tantamount to treason to question these heart-wretching but usually kitschy stories that appear practically every day, especially in mass media and local newspapers, but I do. I really find them reprehensible. I always have. They've always irritated, then angered me. (They irritate me as much as the sly and manipulative "Support Our Troops" meme which witless Dem operatives purveyed in lieu of a real peace movement — hey, be against wars if you want, but at least have the decency not to pretend that you are "for" soldiers as if they are like union employees just "doing a job."

    So I'm grateful to this blog post by former NSA analyst and now professor at the Navy College John Schindler today for sharpening my thinking on this.

    Here's why all those stories about soldiers surprising their little kids in their elementary schools with an unexpected early return home, or soldiers appearing suddenly at their mom's birthday party, or soldiers suddenly showing up to propose marriage, or soldiers suddenly appearing at their brother's workplace — why none of them work for me.

    That is, sure, they're nice, and no doubt the people in the stories really appreciate them and are awfully glad to have their loved ones home surprising them like this.

    But their institutionalization as a meme, as a staple of culture, as a news diet, as a kind of justification of everything — that just doesn't work.

    And here's why — first, two big reasons — and then the rests of the reasons why I find the military just so screwed up these days and think it should change:

    1) Because they didn't HAVE to go to these wars. They are in a voluntary army. They were not conscripted. Especially women could CHOOSE to stay home with a NEWBORN BABY, for example, good Lord, no war is worth leaving a nursing baby for when you don't have to! A newly-married husband doesn't have to join the army, either, he can stay home with his new wife. A father of two elementary school kids really does have choices and doesn't need to ensure that they grow up without him and risk turning into little felons or drug abusers.

    And so on. They chose to go overseas to fight in a war, then they should accept that this will mean hardship and even possibly deprivation and grief for their families and loved ones. That's why their sudden showings and media-saturated surprises just don't add up. The poignancy part, I mean. The drama. There was no need, because you didn't really have to go.

    Why not do the hard job of staying home and taking care of your responsibilities and getting a good education and a good job on your own? Then maybe you'd have something to bring to — instead of taking from — the armed services.

    2) Because the armed forces have engaged in a massive public relations program for years which amounts to this: join the army, learn a trade, get an education for free, and get a job when you get out. This seems really attractive to a lot of people. But it's hugely misleading. They paint a picture as if you have to go through a bit of a rugged boot camp, sure, but then you are taught all these interesting skills useful in the private sector. Yes, you have to go overseas, but you'll either be on a ship somewhere, or you'll be in Germany, or maybe South Korea, or maybe merely just sitting in Texas. or maybe you'll go to Afghanistan, but not very long, and in any event, even if you do, you don't have a huge chance of being killed. Then college– paid for — and that great job! With that great resume-booster provided free by Uncle Sam.

    This "learn a skill, get a job" stuff is very deep-seated, and you find all sorts of people drawing on it, mainly in the lower classes,the poor, or the clueless middle class that is turning into lower class due to recessions and lay-offs. You even hear people tell themselves that they have "no choice" but to go "get a job" in the army because there are "no jobs" elsewhere.

    I personally find this bullshit, as those who want to work can get jobs — they just might not  be jobs with free education and exotic travel and missions to go with them.

    3) It's my firm conviction that the reason we have so many people having psychotic breaks in the armed forces, and going crazy and killing civilians, or coming home and committing suicide, or suffering from PTSD and substance abuse, is because of the massive disconnect between the advertisements, and the shill about "learn a trade, get a job" and the reality which is — be trained in something that might help our mission of killing people, kill then, then go home and resume your normal life.

    We're unable to create a valid and efficient killing machine when necessary, and what we have instead is an army of job trainees who seem shocked and surprise that their internships and apprenticeships have IEDs in them.

    I think this goes up the chain, and the sense of "you are special, we trained you, and now you're fabulous" sets up a situation where you feel you can have affairs, get drunk, be abusive, not do your duty, all because it's about you, and not anything else.

    I really think the army has to step back from how they do this recruitment, how they set up expectations, and change the message and the perception managements. And I'm confident if they do, they will get better people and better outcomes. But this will require a wrenching re-evaluation and changes of policy.

    They tried "the few, the proud, the Marines" to emphasize how they really needed good, intelligent, skillful, rare people, and not dumbasses who take drugs and can't hold a job – but then they forgot that there's still the other three branches of armed service to fill — and they needed more than just a "few". Somehow, the pumping up of egos involved in getting "the few, the proud" led us not to Navy SEALS killing bin Ladn, or whatever our "gold standard" is for selfless, unsung heroics of good people doing their duty, but has led us to generals who behave outrageously and subject their nation to indelible humiliation and denigration.

    I live next door to a National Guard depot and I see the kinds of people there, and my son has various friends who have "deployed," as they describe it. How can I describe this? Well, the very word explains the mindset. These are people who either barely graduated from school, are from poor or immigrant families, who don't have a lot of prospects, who for various reasons of background needed the security of having everything organized for them. They don't say, "I'm going into the army to serve my country, it's my duty." They don't say "We have a mission to fulfill, these terrorists need to be shown who's boss" or "if we don't stop the creeping menace of Islamism, our own freedoms will be in jeopardy," they say "I'm in training"and "I'm being deployed" in the same tone of voice as people describe being sent for training and then a job in another state if they decide to work or IBM or Accenture.

    They've absorbed the recruitment message and they embody it — and it's a problematic message because we all know that they won't get a job with this "training" after they return and we're lucky if they even manage to fight the war they're plopped into.  Instead of getting jobs and going on with their lives, they have an excellent chance of coming back with substance abuse problems, PTSD, and emotional problems that if anything, prevent them from ever becoming productive members of society.

    4) I'm not a pacifist, and I don't have a problem with people deciding to serve in the army for whatever reason; indeed, our national security depends on it.  Neither of my grandfathers served in World War II, I have no idea why, but apparently their ages were such that they were a bit too old and had large families to support and worked in factories. My father served in the Korean War. His father had died in an accident and he had his mother and disabled sister to support. They rented out the top floor of their house and lived downstairs, he went to high school and worked nights at Wendt's, a dairy, as a soda jerk. He lied about his age to get into the army at 17 even before graduation but he always said he was "performing his duty for his country" and always understood it as the just cause of fighting Communism even if he was in fact a kid who needed skills and a job.

    He got them. He also got the GI bill and then graduated with a degree in engineering. The people who didn't die in a war like the Korean War continued as walking advertisements — join the army, learn a skill, get a free education, get a job. It worked — at least, better than it works now. My father was good with languages, he passed a proficiency test and was sent to Russian school and worked as a linguist for the Army Air Corps (predecessor of the Air Force) in intelligence. He flew up in planes and listened to Soviet pilots chattering and swearing and reported on what they were saying. He left the army with varicose veins from all the marching and sitting in cramped airplanes and jumping out of them now and then, and then went into civilian life to work as a ceramic engineer until his death. He always spoke of the army as a duty, not a career enhancement, and as something that had a lot of suffering and unpleasantness in it.

    5) I've come to the idea of supporting conscription not because of the notion John Schindler mentions of saying "if the elites had their own sons serve, they'd have less wars or be more cautious about getting into wars." I don't think that's a proven hypothesis. After all, the Queen of England had her relatives serving in Afghanistan and that didn't make the UK decide they shouldn't get involved in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

    I think it's more like this, however: before, armed service was a path to success — it meant you could run for political office or advance in a company because you were believed to be merited and trustworthy. But after Vietnam, that ceased. And with the last two wars, it didn't work, even with very decent people deploying; they didn't go run for Congress. I remember meeting a recent new member of Congress at the Foreign Policy Institute who had actually served in the army and it was a total shock — no Congress people do nowadays. And that's because it's not viewed as a career path — oh, except for my son's friends who five minutes ago were hanging around Union looking to score weed and playing with iPhones and dropping out of school, and now are supposedly trained enough and smart enough to fight a war. They are getting training, and free education, and they'll get a job, right? But they could barely graduate or get a GED in the NYC high school system, which is an abomination…

    So my thinking about conscription works like this: if you had conscription, then you'd get lots more people, smart people, people without illusions that they will "get a job" from serving in the army, people who "get it" about what an army really is for, people who can realize that there's a job to do, a hard and unpleasant and risky job, before they return to civilian life which they would have made for themselves *without the armed forces*.

    6) I don't have illusions about the draft. I lived through the Vietnam era, don't forget. I remember that my classmates brothers were drafted, and some of them got killed and it was very sad. Of course, if you were rich and connected, you could get out of the draft, or you could just guard a swimming pool in Texas (a famous example always discussed in that era in our town based on some guy who supposedly really did that). You didn't have to be rich and famous, either, because of the concept of draft deferment if you were in college, or if you had a teaching job. That was how my uncle avoided the draft — first going to college, then teaching elementary school. I don't think he particularly enjoyed teaching, which was hard and low-paid, but I think he preferred that to going to Vietnam and having a chance of getting killed.

    Remember they fixed THAT problem of too many deferments by starting a lottery. And that was really scary. Suddenly, our music teacher and band leader could get drafted. Our neighbours could get drafted. And did. And then some got killed. Of course there was a fair amount of opposition to the war; I went to my first anti-war demonstration when I was 14. But by and large, in small towns outside the big cities, people did their duty. That's how they understood it. They hoped for the best.  I worked in the US Post Office with a lot of veterans and disabled veterans, because they got points awarded on the civil service exam for the USPS  so that they'd have jobs, and these were serious people who served their country and did their duty.

    But "Vietnam vet" in a lot of cases came to mean people who were crazy, drug-abusers, off the grid, bikers, whatever. This idea of "learn a trade, get a job," fell away…

    7) Not that many people were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan by contrast with other wars. But they were maimed and killed more in real time on the air on instant media and social media and it therefore loomed larger perhaps. And they did in fact get killed in increasing numbers — numbers that flew in the fact of that "the few, the proud" propaganda and the "learn a trade, get a job" shill.

    I remember trying to raise this issue with Richard Holbrooke. In the little neighbourhood where I spend my Thanksgivings, three men out of five who deployed together were killed, leaving widows and children. That sure wasn't worth it, because we lost.

    8) Our armed forces are really, really hurting. And I don't think that's because they are "stretched thin" in "two long wars". That is, sure, they take their toll. World War II was "only" six years and the Korean War was "only" three years — but more people died in them than in these wars.  I actually think the "set and setting" problem of the Army recruiment propaganda and the kinds of people they wind up attracting with that misleading promise of "skills and jobs" are central to the problem. The army reflects the problem of society in the family, education, the work place, but itself is serving as an incubator worsening them.

    Chelsea Manning is a classic example. She was smart, actually had computer and analytical skills largely self-taught on "the Internet", but was an EDP, to use the cops' lingo, an "emotionally disturbed person" who flopped around not knowing what to do, with an alcoholic and abusive dad or something, with identity issues, who felt the army would not only give her "a good education and a good job" where the regular economy hadn't, but would also "pull her together". It didn't. The rest is history.

    Edward Snowden is another good example. We never learn how this high-school drop-out, also with an absentee dad, who seemed to also have good self-taught Internet-learned skills, felt he had to go in the army — where he promptly broke both legs, instead of "learning a skill and getting a good job". Even so, he migrated toward related national security work, but questions remain: how clueless do you have to be to break not one, but two legs in basic training? Maybe you're "an indoor cat" who shouldn't have joined and no one should have let you? Or how negligent do the armed services have to be? We don't know. But Ed was not "good people" for the real job of the army, which is serving your country and fighting a war, not getting an all-expense paid training and job placement program.

    And there are more, and higher-level fuck-ups — but first, a personal story.

    8)  My own son went and joined the Marines but didn't finish the process and now is ineligible for service. I wasn't thrilled with the idea, but he was of age, and it was his decision and I thought (I'm not immune to the propaganda, either), he might "learn a trade and get a good job" where these things had failed in civilian life.

    He went through various physical and written exams, briefing sessions, interviews, etc. and was getting ready to ship out to Parris Island. But then due to a confluence of various circumstances in his own life and the draw-down being announced, there were delays and then he began to get cold on the idea. For one, the recruiting officer began to tell him that he really should stay in college, then go in the Marines, it would only be better for him to go into higher-level training. Also, I won an electric motorcycle at TechCrunch Disrupt with the express pitch that I hoped it would be something that would keep him out of the Marines because I didn't want him to be sent to Afghanistan and be one of the last people to become disabled or die there (and I guess fate rewarded us there…Man proposes, God disposes…)

    I had reasons to believe this would be the case that he would die, or worse, become disabled. Naturally he had more of a chance of becoming disabled in a motorcycle accident, and sadly that's exactly what happened.

    But even as he used that argument to persuade me that Afghanistan was going to be "safe,"  I could see that for this kid, even my own son whose father was jailed in a Soviet psychiatric hospital because he refused to go in the army when Czechoslovakia was being invaded, there was only the haziest notion of the war in Afghanistan, despite all my work in human rights and the UN and discussing the issues at home, and only the foggiest concept of any mission or duty. To country, to society, let alone to vulnerable people overseas whose country was overrun with thugs.

    But there was much, much more prevelant in his thinking was that he was going to "get training" and "get a good job". The Cisco network training which his high school provided — which he didn't finish — didn't grab him. But somehow, the army — which would amount to the same thing only with the chance to get up early in the morning, eat grub, run around like hell and then have a chance to die — was going to do it.

    In real life, in the civilian sector, prospects for somebody with less than a year in college, which he didn't like, were not great — he worked variously many hours a week for low pay as an insurance salesman, a cell phone salesman, an electricity salesman, a computer repairman and it was all going nowhere. Occupy sent a very powerful message even to this family that definitely opposed Occupy and its Marxist politics: if you load up on college debt, you may not be abe to pay it back for years and you may not get a good job. The army looked attractive in those circumstances, when your prospects were years more of selling insurance and going to school nights. It's too bad they were winding down the wars, eh? Everywhere the message went out to stop recruiting so heavily and now they can afford to pick better people.

    Recruiting officers tell kids now — hey, go back to school. Hey, you have that drug charge or that robbery charge? Well, we can still let you in, but now we're going to look for people with cleaner records. You didn't do very well on the test because you didn't pay attention and barely graduated from high school? Well, we're going to find people who are better than you now.  But that isn't what they did for the last ten years, and it shows.

    9) The people at the top in the military have let us down appallingly. I am still trying to understand this. How could this happen? Some years ago I was interviewed by Rolling Stone and appeared in a story there about Second Life and I know exactly what they do with you: they make fun of you. Deliberately. I knew that going into it. That's what they do if you aren't a rock star, duh! I can't imagine being so stupid as to hang out with their reporters and drink and tell them stories. You'd have to be ignorant or so vain that they could play on your vanity. So much for McChrystal, who I thought was a lot smarter.

    Petraeus — what the hell? You have this exemplary career, you have this incredibly important duty to perform with many people depending on you and your country's safety and reputation at stake, and you screw it up by letting this manipulative biographer get you into an affair and then expose you to scandal? What? How vain and stupid do you have to be?

    Bales. You sound like a person who had lots of problems before you deployed that you thought the army would fix for you. Either your vanity and belief you could do what you couldn't led you to back-to-back deployments, or somebody in charge of deployment had the poor judgement to deploy you (what, they ran out of job-seekers and stupid drug users in New York City?) But all in all, the set and setting seems to have contributed to the appalling massacre of innocent Afghan civilians you should have been taking the utmost care to protect. Didn't you have any sense of duty?

    And Carey. Gosh, I could almost understand the back stories of Manning and the others, maybe it's just human nature. But my God, what an asshole. Getting drunk with the Russians?! With known operatives serving as honey pots from the GRU? While you are responsible for nuclear weapons?! What are you fucking stupid? Or is it so vain that you think you can do no wrong? I'm just BAFFLED.

    So you can see that I find a theme here — vanity. Telling little darlings they are wonderful. Special. Only the few, the proud. That they will advance their lovely careers. That they will turn from losers into productive members of society because they will "get trained and get a job". It reminds me of all the Yuppie moms in the playground with their endless ego-boosting of their toddlers, and their endless, inexhaustive ability to empathize with the wants and needs of their little monsters instead of setting limits and insisting on good behaviour.

    "Use your indoor voice, Tommy" or "We don't throw sand, Janie" or "what do you need, apple juice? A graham cracker? a Samsung tablet?" instead of getting a "No, stop that, or we're leaving" or "no, snack-time is at 4 pm, it's not time yet."

    You know what I mean?

    And all of this is horribly, horribly wrong. We need to change all this, radically. From top to bottom. it isn't even so much about changing to a draft versus voluntary — it's about THIS. It's about GETTING RID of the idea that the army is here to serve YOU, instead of you SERVING THE ARMY. It's about finding people who could get a job in civilian life, but choose to do this other, harder thing because they love their country. It's about setting up the expectations right, and weeding out the EDPs better. It's about saying "You're not going to get anything out of this, and might lose your leg." It's about ending the "heroics" of the "surprise dad" and that brave soul learning to walk on artificial limbs who had the misfortune to have a "training accident" while he was in his "job program". It's about creating fighting men and women who fight like they're going to win, who get that war is sacrifice, not self-aggrandizement.

    It's a hard and tricky thing. On the one hand, you want to instill a sense of mission, of responsibility, of America's role in the world. On the other hand, you don't want this:

    Ms. [REDACTED] states that Maj Gen Carey was visibly agitated about the long delay at Zurich, he appeared drunk and, in the public area, talked loudly about the importance of his position as commander of the only operational nuclear force in the world and that he saves the world from war every day.

    Or this:

    “I am not trying to bring down the NSA, I am working to improve the NSA,” he said. “I am still working for the NSA right now. They are the only ones who don’t realize it.”

    “That whole question — who elected you? — inverts the model,” he said. “They elected me. The overseers.”

    He named the chairmen of the Senate and House intelligence committees.

    Dianne Feinstein elected me when she asked softball questions” in committee hearings, he said. “Mike Rogers elected me when he kept these programs hidden. . . . The FISA court elected me when they decided to legislate from the bench on things that were far beyond the mandate of what that court was ever intended to do. The system failed comprehensively, and each level of oversight, each level of responsibility that should have addressed this, abdicated their responsibility.”

    And so on. You get the idea.

    People who have a sense of a purpose higher than themselves before which they become humble, not arrogant.

    It used to be religious upbringing accomplished this, or perhaps life on a family farm. Then maybe school or civic clubs could provide it. Nothing provides it anymore.

    There's just the Internet.

    I'm not an expert and I don't know how this can be accomplished. But not only experts should get to decide these things. All citizens get a say in their votes and in their freedom of expression.

     

  • WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


    (more…)

  • Youtube Feed of Uzbek Suspect Fazliddin Kurbanov — Hate for Russians, Americans, Love for Jihad, Explosives, and Power Rangers

    Boise da id. Email lingiz ishlayaptimi

     Fazliddin Kurbanov commented and liked 2 months ago

    I love idaho and exactly boise and eagle. This is. A wonderful place on the world. Very niat. Welcome. Idaho

    Moving to Idaho

    ourotherplanet by ourotherplanet • 3,232 views

    Fazliddin Kurbanov and 15 others liked 11 months ago

    Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)

    deseagle42 by deseagle42 • 10,593 views

    http://alemarah-iea.com/eng… Real news about Afghanistan

    bbc aljazeera Taliban طالبان Afghanistan افغانستان nuristan نورستان islam terrorism…

    As it happens, there are quite a few people named "Fazliddin Kurbanov" in the world. But as this particular Fazliddin Kurbanov has a very heavily used Youtube account with hundreds of videos in Russian and Uzbek about jihad (that would be much harder for him to do in Uzbekistan itself, where Youtube is blocked), and as he mentions Boise in a comment on another person's Youtube account, and even writes in English "I love Idaho" four months ago — it seems like it is the same person as the suspect. How many Uzbeks with this particular name could there be in Idaho?

    Even if it is not, but some other would-be jihadist, it deserves a close study because it seems to be an anatomy of the "self-radicalizing" jihadist — the Youtubizing would-be terrorist who learns to hate from agitprop videos made in the Russian language by…whoever it is makes these youtubes in Russian (we know the Russian government itself funds iran.ru, so I wonder if the Russian intelligence services also run the youtube jihadist business too in order to annoy the West).

    Watch as he lurches from hating Russians and loving Idaho to hating American soldiers and then studying how to make bombs…

    I'm going to reject in advance any claim that analyzing the social media of suspects — whether it turns out to be right or wrong — is somehow an illegitimate or immoral activity. If you make a public account on social media and put comments and content on it, sorry, but other members of the public will comment on your content, especially if you become a suspect in a crime. If it's not you, but your content draws critical comment — too bad. Don't go on Youtube then if you don't like being discussed. There was far, far too much net-nannying around the Boston marathon bombing suspects, with the liberal and leftist media being the worst at silencing critical speculation and debate about Islamists and anarchists, and then turning around and indulging it in themselves with speculation about the right-wing extremists.

    I have no confirmation that this account belongs to the same person who has just been arrested, but it seems as if it is, and it deserves discussion in any event.

    As you can see from this page of numerous videos, Sarah Kendzior's (and the other Registanis') theories of the Russian language disappearing and people preferring only their native Uzbek is shot all to hell. Maybe the behaviour is different in a 20-year-old or a 15-year-old (although I don't see that it is), but in this 30-year-old, we see the classic pattern of the post-Soviet space — Russian as in fact a lingua franca, often written in Latin letters, used to be able to be understood to more people — other Russian speakers, whether they are Chechens or Kyrgyz or Russians themselves. The post-Soviet space is a very big space, and the far-flung empire includes Eastern Europe where people also still understand Russian. So this is the language of the Internet, like it or not. You wish people spoke English, and might then be more educated — they aren't.

    To be sure, Fazliddin uses Uzbek too. But he uses Russian more. Maybe it is easier for him to express himself in a language that was one he was forced to learn in school, and it works for the technical things he wants to express — oh, about how to make ammonium nitrate.

    Every youtube you can see in this list is "legal" — there are none of those blank spaces from where Google has pulled some of the most severe jihadist videos as you can see from Tamerlan Tsarnaev's much smaller Youtube list. This list has numerous violent, hateful videos — showing American soldiers being killed; cheering on Chechen resistance leaders and terrorists; showing sorrow for Muslims killed and blaming America — maybe Google isn't as active in removing Russian videos. There are also numerous jihad videos in Uzbek and various classic Islamic videos, i.e. how to wear the hijab, what kind of beard to grow.

    What stands out for me in this stream is the hate. Youtube is an infamous place of hate, with people writing the most hateful comments imagineable, but usually they are anonymous. Here's a guy, under his own name, spending hours and hours writing in Russian, with Latin letters, the most vile statements about Russians.

    Kurbanov's likes are a strange medley of everything from Power Rangers to jihad videos to news about drones to Chechen warriors.

    Drones – License to Kill for example, and a video about the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan — a number shared from Muhammad Foruq in Albania who also collects Islamist videos with Russian subtitles like this one from the Islamic Jihad Creative Studio Badr-at-Tauhid.

    Like the other jihad kids, this guy likes to learn about Free Masonry, the secret society. There are a lot of truck videos, suggesting that like other Uzbek emigres and emigres in general from the FSU, he is driving a truck for a living (Muhtorov did as well).

    But most of all, there is the vile stream of hate to Russians.

    "Russians are fucked," he wrote two weeks ago.  "Chechens are good guys," he wrote about Chechen Diary which is a famous documentary series by the Belarusian film-maker Pavel Sheremet, who himself suffered reprisals in Belarus and Russia for his work covering the Chechen wars.

    Most of all, he feels resentment — to the "new Uzbeks" — affluent Uzbeks in an advertisement that others admired but which prompted him to say "herd of sheep".

    So much does this guy hate Russians — and official Uzbeks like the president's daughter, Gulnara Karimova — that interestingly — for someone who was planning a terrorist act in America — that he has his to say about the Russian spy Anna Chapman:

    Пидаразы а не ученые где вы были 20 лет назад. Говорили абезяны были чумошники руские всё варуют у американских ученых бараны

    That's typed in Cyrillic (other Russian-language comments are in Angrusski with Latin) and he uses a term that is a huge insult, with a kind of variation that means something like "You vile pederasts". "Pederast" is usually the term people in this part of the world use for any gay person, not just child molesters.

    "You are pederasts and not scientists where were you 20 years ago. They say Russian chumoshniki were monkeys, they steal everything from the American scientists, the sheep."

    I see this word "chumoshniki" as in "dirty chumoshniki" on Internet fora in Central Asia all the time and I think it's an ethnic slur based on the word "chum" or nomadic tent or something. Someone in the field may know.

    Every other clip has a comment to the effect that "Russians are monkeys" — a typical insult.

    A clip on "Obama's minimum wage disappointment." Let's crank up the mal-adjusted immigrant theme, shall we, because if you are poor, you get to blow up a building!
    A number of videos sympathetic to the Chechens, devastated in two Chechen wars, and also about the Soviets in Afghanistan.
     
    "You're a fool," writes Fazliddin about a video on Kadyrov, the Putin-installed head of Chechnya. "You listen to the Russians."
    A video on Chechen resistance leader  Shamil Basayev, responsible for a number of terrorist acts and killed by the Russians — Fazliddin writes something like "you Russians come here, we'll fix you."
     
    Here's another sample of his typical comments, this one on a video of a fight between Chechens and the OMON riot police, apparently addressed to the guy who uploaded the video:
    Oleg feliks slishay huella. Вы руские отсосали наши хуйи и дасехпор сасете ачем ти гавориш ебан ебаныч мы вас и ваш омон мочем ти смотришь видео вы руские чмошники проиграли все гасни как и раньше гаснули свами уже переписоватся заподло алкашы недоделоные
    Oleg feliks, listen, are you fucked. You Russians sucked our dicks and still suck them and you fucking tell us you'll fuck us and your OMON, look at the video, you Russian chmoshniki lost, you're dying out, it's even shameful to take your census, you're pathetic alcoholics.
    Interesting — four months ago, Kurbanov wrote a comment about a Russian-language video on female suicide bombers that condemns them:
    Te beliy baran poprobuy is za svoyey religiy pojertvovat saboy mi umerayem I ubevaeym vas. Ati chto zbelal bla svoyey religie kazol huy drachil I drachil balshe. A perebacha tak perebelano chto zombi eto ti I nekto bolshe. Kafiri
    You are a white sheep. Just try to sacrifice yourself for your religion we are dying and we will kill you. And what have you you done with your fucking religion you goat jerking off a cock and more. [?] You're a zombie and nothing else. Kafiri (infidels).
    And yet on another video in this series about the shakhidki (female suicide bombers) he writes matter-of-factly "Because do not fear death as you do." This comment was five months ago; the other one was four months ago, maybe his mind shifted on this issue.
    A video about Zhirinovsky — and more "Russian goats" comments.
    The film "Chechen Trap" gets this comment: "Posholti nahuy beliy russkiy baran i ruskiy rab" which is "Go fuck yourself you white Russian sheep and Russian slave."
    As with other Russian-speakers in the Islamist set on Youtube, he has both videos with naked women, and quite a few videos showing how to wear the hijab.
    Anti-Christian propaganda — the real name of God is Allah in the Bible, Islam in the Bible, etc.
    To Russians who made a propaganda film about how Arabs fighting for Islam on Russian terroritory had been "liquidated," our Idahoan geopolitician has this to say:
    vot eto tochnoe dokozatelstvo chto ve obezani a asobeno ti samaya haroshaya i takimi vi i ostanetes poka ne achnetes i ne primite pravdu zasun tvoyu nauku ne sebe v jad a vzad tvoemu otsu i togda uvas budet nastoyashaya evolitciya a karan dlya ludey a ne dlya odezayan
    Here is exact proof that you are monkeys and you are especially good and you will remain that way until you come to your senses and accept the truth stick your science up your ass and the ass of your father and then you will have real evolution but the Koran is for people and not monkeys.
    Like I said — the wisdom of the ages.
    Fazliddin liked the video about the Taliban's jailbreak and the American soldiers crying after an ambush — a film that in fact someone was trying to use to illustrate what terrorist propaganda is.
    And here's some fuel for the argument that US support of the Karimov job fuels jihad — Fazliddin posts he video, made by a Russian  news team, about renewal of US military aid to Uzbekistan.
    Here's a popular video about an American jihadi. Films on Mecca; chants of "Allohu Akbar" to films about the Islamic resistance.
    Shaikh Muhammad Yasir / Advice to the Ulema and Dua'at. "Stop Killing Muslims in Burma".
    Here's a helpful video with a very helpful disclaimer that really worked1

    9/11 Hijackers – Mohammad Atta and Ziad Jarrah

    BruceLee2343 by BruceLee2343 • 23,673 views

    This video is soley for educational purposes and references and is not by any means used for incitement of terrorism. Or terrorist acts.

    Okay…

    A film about a thief who converted to Islam prompts the comment, "inshaallah kazakistan stanet islamskoy derjavoe" — "Inshallah, Kazakhstan will become an Islamic power."

    The losses of the Russian army in Chechnya…Shariah courts…more how to wear a hijab…

    As for one of the truther videos about how there weren't really planes at the twin towers, our Youtube jihad specialist exclaims:

    "vi shto vse sumashetshie eto teroristi neponatno"
    "What are you saying, are you mad, those are terrorists, don't get it."

    As for a video about the murder of Daniel Sysoev, well, that was alright in Fazliddin's book:

    vapervih etot chelavek ne svetoe a kazol potomushto oh sam nachel oskarblat musulman tak vam enado chumoshniki i vapsheto russkie narod kak vi sami govarili sozdani iz obezani obezyanii garilla martishka aran gunani ponemaete kto vi
    First, this person is not sacred but a goat because he himself began to offend Muslims, you deserve it you chumoshniki and in general the Russian people like you yourself are created from monkeys, you're monkeys, gorillas, chimps, understand who you are
    Power rangers…namaz (Muslim prayers…what is it with Power Rangers and Iron Man and jihadists?!
    About ten months ago, Fazliddin began to watch more 9/11 movies and movies about how to make flash powder, how to make igniters. How to make ammonium nitrate, and videos of massive explosions…
    A video about how to make a car bomb with C4…okay, bring him in…
    There are three or four videos from RFE/RL in Uzbek about Muhtorov, and he has substantial comments in Uzbek — maybe someone can translate those.
  • Asia is Beating the US on the New Silk Road

    When you see deals like this, you have to wonder how serious America is about investing in the New Silk Road — which is how the State Department describes the concept for "prosperity" in the Central Asian region after the withdrawal of US troops in 2014.

    Be sure to follow my curated news clips on Scoop.it called Northern Distribution Network-New Silk Road to see in fact how rocky things are — NATO troops continue to die in battle; a plane crashed recently killed 7; there are terrible scandals about the CIA's cash spent on Karzai and cronies going to waste; there are Pakistani tribal elders demonstrating against the NATO trucking routes. James Dobbins, Obama's new special representative to the region will have a very tough and unenviable assignment; his predecessors include Richard Holbrooke, who died of heart failure and Marc Grossman, who was said to keep a low profile.

    You'd be forgiven for thinking that "the New Silk Road" merely means NATO traffic and business through Afghanistan. It's also the rest of the old Silk Road of the ancient caravan-serai in the countries of Central Asia like Uzbekistan.

    That's where South Korea has just signed a $3.9 billion deal to build a gas complex, according to trend.az:

    Kogas signs agreement for $3.9 billion gas-chemical complex – Trend.az – The
    Government of Uzbekistan and South Korean Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas)
    signed a direct agreement on the construction of the Ustyurt Gas
    Chemical Complex

    Or look at China, which has $15 million just in Jizzak:

    Chinese companies implement $15 million worth projects in Jizzak SIZ – Trend.az –
    Jizzak SIZ was created in March of this year according to the decree of the President of Uzbekistan.

    I'm not suggesting that it's a good idea for American companies to invest in this region, given the corruption and massive human rights violations — which in fact are not good for business, as the same corrupt institutions that violate people's civil rights to stay in power are the same ones that take bribes or suddenly confiscate your investment; they are intertwined.

    The State Department can't really avoid reporting these bad things about the poor investment climate in Uzbekistan where Oxus Gold saw its stake confiscated and were forced to leave at a loss and where Turkish companies have been hounded, suspected of fueling religious extremism, and expelled, and there have been other debacles, for example, the Germans not getting their debts repaid. W

    With GM reducing its car sales in Russia — the market for the Uzbek-manufactured vehicles — I wonder how this joint venture, originally inherited from South Korea's Daewoo when it was taken over by GM, will be impacted. GM says it has doubled production in Uzbekistan in in 7 years. Even so, reportedly 94% of new cars in Uzbekistan are made by GM.

    Paging Mitt Romney to ask whether this helps or hurts American jobs for GM, which declared bankruptcy in the recession, got some government-backed bail-out loans but then claimed to have paid them back in full after restructuring in which numerous workers were fired, and some Congressmen questioned their pay-back as it came from other tax-payer funds:

    GM sold 121,584 vehicles in Uzbekistan last year, making the
    country the eighth-largest market for its Chevrolet brand. The
    joint venture produced more than 225,000 cars last year and will
    raise output to 250,000 units this year.

    At one level, if it keeps the company in buiness, even if the jobs go to Uzbeks, it's a plus.

    But on the other hand, the reality is, China, South Korea, even India are investing more in this region and apparently looking the other way when it comes to corruption and human rights problems that ultimately will haunt them. They are spending large amounts of money. And this is now a foreign policy fact of life which means that as the US "pivots" toward China for reasons I can never really grasp, they will find themselves with the harsh reality that the regions of the world that they think are "pacified" or "taking care of themselves" or merely "withdrawn from" are what are being Asia's powerhouse.

    And maybe the job is just to provide a bulwark to Central Asian leaders — who in the long term may become better as the tyrants age out — so they have choices besides being taken over by China — and of course, have a hedge against Russia, which has also had its failures in a region increasingly turning anti-Moscow:

    Not every foreign investor has met with success in
    Uzbekistan. Russia's top mobile phone operator, MTS,
    which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, has written off
    $1.1 billion after its Uzbek licence was permanently revoked on
    Aug. 13.

    There's a certain lobbying force in the US which seems to be over-friendly to dictators — and gets its way despite the objectsions of human rights groups and even others in government. Says the Asia Times:

    It was reported that the American business
    delegation, headed by Carolyn Lamm, chairwoman of
    the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce
    (AUCC), and including representatives of over 30
    US companies such as Boeing, Solar Turbines,
    General Motors, Merk, General Electric Energy,
    Anadarko, Zeppelin International, Case New
    Holland, Nukem and others, attended the business
    forum.

    Lamm is former head of the American Bar Association and you wonder why she doesn't get more challenge from her colleagues in the ABA, but then, the ABA is not really a human rights organization but a vehicle to expend USAID money for "training" that usually enriches US contractors.

    Senior Uzbek government officials
    in charge of the economic sector, including
    ministers of finance, the economy, foreign
    economic relations, investments and trade and
    other high level officials, were also in
    attendance to brief their guests on the state of
    Uzbek economy and to discuss possible investment
    and economic cooperation.

    The forum has
    been very successful, according to Uzbekistan's
    National News Agency, as the two sides reached
    understanding on 21 economic and investment
    projects covering areas such as machinery, metal
    processing, energy, oil and gas mining,
    petrochemicals, electrotechnical processes,
    uranium mining, pharmaceuticals, and others, with
    a total value of US$2.8 billion.

    Obviously, if the total value of US projects here is $2.8 billion, that doesn't even equal one project from South Korea noted above.

    Fozil Mashrab at the Asia Times last year interestingly said that Uzbekistan's "look East" policy seeking investment from places like South Korea or Malaysia was only a function of Western reticence, given that the West suspended ties with Uzbekistan after the Andijan massacre, when hundreds of people were gunned down by Uzbek troops for protesting injustices in 2005 after an opposition jail-break in which police were killed.

    But even though the US restored ties and even some forms of military aid, subject to review, it hasn't stopped the "look East" policy in fact, which I think was never going anywhere.

     

  • Tajik Opticon #9


    Prokudin-Gorsky Small
    1907 Solar Eclipse Expedition by Sergei Prokhudi-Gorskii, Russian Photographer in Central Asia.

    This is my little blog on Tajikistan that comes out on Saturdays.  If you are unable to click on all the links, come to my blog Different Stans as these can be blocked by some mail systems.
    Write me at [email protected] with comments or requests to be added to
    the mailing list.

    o Opposition Leader Missing Abroad…
    o …And Government Critic Missing at Home
    o Russians Leaving Tajikistan in Droves…
    o…and Tajik Migrants Returning from Russia in Coffins
    o Everybody Worries About the Tajik Porous Border…
    o…But at Least OSCE Tries to Do Something About It

    o Earthquake…and Harlem Shakes…

    COMMENT

    People explain the missing opposition leader abroad and the missing region critic at home by the same factor: the forthcoming presidential election coming up in November of this year.  Why it’s necessary to disappear people, when you’re going to sail through to an overwhelming victory with the same dubious high percentage for the win as all your Central Asian neighbours is beyond me, but perhaps that one tug on the thread unravels the whole thing…

    What I think people need to understand about disappearances is that you don’t have to be an exemplary citizen or innocent of crime to claim the right to security and life that your state should not take away from you. In Belarus, the Lukashenka regime has been charged with disappearing mafia kingpins along with opposition leaders, using the same methods, and of course in Russia, some 400 people in missing in the North Caucasus even by official admission. So it’s not good wherever it happens and the Tajik government needs to explain what’s going on.

    Paul Goble covers the exodus of Russians from Tajikistan, a process that has been going on steadily and in large numbers since the civil war. From far-away Brighton Beach, I can anecdotally report that for the first time talking to Russians who work as home attendants or have “khom-atten” that there are Tajiks now reported among the many former Soviets fleeing the region. When there is a Tajik restaurant in New York City, I guess we’ll know there is more serious migration. Arkady Dubnov says that Russian language isn’t declining because Tajik migrants need it to speak in the near abroad, starting with Russia, where they seek work. And some meet tragic ends, as we are reminded once again just how many return in coffins after being murdered in hate crimes or dying on unsafe construction sites.

    Let us think of the most OSCE extreme sports — the Afghan-Tajik border patrol training in the winter and…the Minsk Group meetings in the summer. OSCE tries the patience of the saints who persist with it. Everyone talks about the porous Tajik border, and a video of a precarious plane flight over it (see link below) lets you know that it’s porous, but, well, not so navigable. Even so, there is expected to be trouble after US troops withdraw, and OSCE is at least trying to train some local people to address the challenges. It seems like training for a few dozen people can’t make much of a difference, but as the saying goes, it matters to the starfish….

     

    GOVERNMENT CRITIC MISSING FOR TWO WEEKS

    From EurasiaNet.org:

    Early on March 15, a 58-year-old man put on his tracksuit and left
    home in Qurghonteppa, a 90-minute drive south of Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s
    capital. Morning exercise was a regular part of his routine, says
    Amnesty International. But on this morning the man, a prominent critic
    of President Imomali Rakhmon, did not return.

    Friends and political allies fear Salimboy Shamsiddinov was kidnapped
    for his political views, including his critique of Tajik-Uzbek
    relations. Shamsiddinov, head of the Society of Uzbeks of Khatlon
    Province, is no stranger to tough talk, often expressing himself freely
    on politics and interethnic relations in a country where questioning the
    official line is discouraged, especially in an election year.

    Translation of RFE/RL Tajik Service from e-tajikistan, who believes authorities are “blaming the victim”:

    «We looked into this theory as well. No kidnapping has taken place. Shamsiddinov has, himself, left the house and disappeared. We’ve received neither information of him having been beaten or forcefully taken out of his home nor any sign of kidnapping and this case must not be interpreted as “political”,» added E. Jalilov.

    Global Voices points out that while disappearance of Umarali Quvvatov in Dubai is discussed, nobody seems to care about disappearance of Shamsiddinov within the country:

    Over the last ten days, journalists and internet users in Tajikistan have actively discussed the ‘disappearance’ of a Tajik opposition leader
    from a Dubai-based detention center. Meanwhile, they have largely
    ignored another recent disappearance of an outspoken critic of the
    regime within the country itself. Salim Shamsiddinov, 58, has been missing since he left his house in the southern city of Qurghonteppa early in the morning on March 15.

    For GV, Quvvatov is tarnished by his association with the fuel business, but not for many Tajiks:

    Despite commanding some support, Quvvatov, as a once-successful
    businessmen, also has his doubters in the country. Before appearing as
    an ardent opponent of Rahmon, Umarali Quvvatov was a successful
    entrepreneur, the head and founder of two private companies that
    transported oil products to Afghanistan through Tajikistan. Quvvatov
    claims that his share in these businesses was taken by force by
    Shamsullo Sohibov, the son-in-law of the president.

    However, the majority of internet users in Tajikistan seem to support
    him. Quvvatov has also attracted some followers due to his religious
    views. In one of the interviews that he gave [ru]
    to RFE/RL’s Tajik service, Quvvatov described himself as a “Sufi”,
    practicing the tradition that focuses on the “esoteric” dimension of
    Islam. In Tajikistan, Sufis are popularly known as “pure Muslims”, which
    partly explains the support for Quvvatov among some religious people.

    TAJIKISTAN – WHERE THE RUSSIANS ARE A DISAPPEARING NATION

    Paul Goble from Windows on Eurasia:

    The ethnic
    Russian community in Tajikistan has declined in size from more than 400,000 in
    Gorbachev’s time to about 40,000 now, the smallest number of ethnic Russians in
    any CIS country except Armenia, a trend that has had a major impact on the
    internal life of that Central Asian country and on its relations with Moscow.

              But according to Arkady Dubnov, a
    Moscow commentator, the situation with regard to Russian language knowledge
    there is somewhat better, largely because of the continuing impact of
    Soviet-era patterns and the more than 700,000 Tajiks who have gone to work in
    the Russian Federation

    LESS POVERTY IN TAJIKISTAN?        h/t @e-tajikistan

    Well, according to the plan, anyway…From Asia-Plus:

    The official poverty statistics show a noticeable decline in the poverty rate in Tajikistan.

    According to Tajikistan’s Livelihood Improvement Strategy (LIS) for
    2013-2015, the Tajik poverty rate is expected to decrease to 31.5
    percent by 2015.  

    ***

    The Tajik poverty rate reportedly decreased from 50 percent in 2008 to
    46.7 percent in 2009, 45 percent in 2010, 41 percent in 2011 and 38.3
    percent in 2012.

     MIGRANT LABORERS DYING TO WORK IN RUSSIA

    From EurasiaNet.org:

     Each day an average of three Tajiks return from Russia in simple
    wooden coffins. They are the victims of racist attacks, police
    brutality, dangerous working conditions and unsafe housing.

    They go for the money, earning up to four times more in Russia than they would at home – if they were lucky to find a job in in dirt-poor Tajikistan. “They are saving to get married and build a house,” said Rustam Tursunov, deputy mayor of the western town of Tursunzoda.

    LIBEL SUIT EXPOSES DISGUST WITH TAJIKISTAN’S JUDICIARY

    In 2010, Rustam Khukumov was sentenced to almost 10 years in a
    Russian prison, charged, along with three other Tajik nationals, with
    possessing nine kilos of heroin.

    Khukumov is the son of the powerful head of Tajikistan’s railway
    boss, Amonullo Khukumov. The senior Khukumov is an ally and relative of
    the Tajik strongman, President Emomali Rakhmon (Khukumov is
    father-in-law to Rakhmon’s daughter). Could that have anything to do
    with why the Khukumov scion was released early, under murky
    circumstances, only a year into his jail term?

    For asking that question, the weekly “Imruz News” now owes Khukumov over $10,500 in “moral damages,” a Dushanbe court ruled on February 25. The paper vows to appeal, which means more embarrassing attention on Khukumov.

    TAJIKISTAN STOPPED BLOCKING FACEBOOK — AGAIN

    In case you care — and it may not last:

    After blocking the social network for about a week, Tajik authorities
    have gone back on the decision and opened up access to Facebook once
    again, AFP reports.

    Last week, Facebook, along with three other websites, were blocked in
    Tajikistan, after authorities ordered ISPs to block access to them.

    Facebook, along with several Russian news sites, namely
    zevzda.ru, centrasia.ru, tjk.news.com, and maxala.org, were blocked
    after several articles were published, criticizing the country’s
    president.

    AFGHANS FAILING SECURITY TEST IN BADAKSHAN

    As EurasiaNet.org’s David Trilling (@dtrilling) about this situation, “Look what’s just across the porous and poorly secured border from Tajikistan“:

    For years, Badakhshan Province enjoyed life away from the action, an
    island of stability as war engulfed the rest of Afghanistan. But as the
    broader conflict winds down, the northeastern province is offering a
    bleak view of the future.

    That’s because NATO last year handed over security duties in Badakhshan
    exclusively to the Afghan National Army (ANA) and National Police (ANP),
    but the transition has coincided with a spike in violence and increased
    militant activity.

    BFz739CCcAAEUnd.jpg large
    Amb. Susan Elliott samples Tajik national cuisine March 2013. Photo by @AmbElliott

    US AMBASSADOR CELEBRATES NOVRUZ IN TAJIKISTAN

    Amb. Susan Elliott, our envoy in Dushanbe, is not dancing like our US ambassador to Uzbekistan, George Krol, last year — she’s more serious.

    But does this picture, well…sort of say something about US-Tajik relations? It belongs to the Soviet genre of “bread and salt celebration” photos that are an iconic staple for the region’s media. But this more impromptu Twitter version can’t help evoking a little bit more beyond the rituals. There’s that studied indifference to her menial task — or glassy-eyed boredom? — of the young woman in front, and the faint half-smile of the one toward the back; and the very faint frown from the ambassador herself, which could be a wince from having to taste some kumys sort of thing — although that grass looks yummy…

    BGWzkkGCYAIL5uI.jpg large
    Photo by Amb. Susan Elliott

    WOMEN ENTREPRENEURS IN KHOROG

    Lest you think women are only pressed into their bread-salt routine, here’s a photo of women in Khorog described as “fantastic entrepreneurs” by our ambassador. Of course, it’s the usual “women’s work” of embroidery or sewing, from the looks of it, but that’s a start…

     

    TAJIKISTAN SHAKES, TOO

    There was a moderate earthquake today in Turkmenistan, but it’s not the only shake going on there.

    Joining in the worldwide craze, Tajiks have turned in at least four Harlem Shakes: here, by the Tajik Debaters’ Society, illustrating that without the props of the rich world, as in other Shakes around the world, the students have been ingenuous with tape and paper and bags; here, sort of a partial Harlem Shake in Tajik national dress; here, which may be the only Harlem Shake performed in chapans by menu.tj; and here, by crazy dudes, which may get the vote for “most minimalist Harlem shake, anywhere”.

    Kate Dixon OSCE
    A village on the Afghan-Tajik border on the banks of the Amu Darya River, 16 October 2008. Photo by Kate Dixon for OSCE.

    OSCE SUPPORTS AFGHAN, TAJIK EXPERTS ON WATER, ENVIRONMENT

    The OSCE Office in Tajikistan hosted an extracurricular day for 30
    Afghan and Tajik students from the faculties of Engineering and Natural
    Sciences at universities in Dushanbe. The event is part of an initiative to strengthen co-operation on
    hydrology and environment between Afghanistan and Tajikistan in the
    Upper Amu-Darya River basin.

    Tajik Border Guard
    A Tajik border guard on patrol. Photo by Carolyn Drake for OSCE.

    OSCE TRAINS TAJIK BORDER GUARDS

    Twenty-four officers from of the Tajik Border Troops, Customs Service
    and the Interior Ministry worked on evaluating context and potential
    risks, identification, analysis and classification of risks, and risk
    assessment at airport and land borders. The course was delivered by
    serving police and border police officers from Turkey and the former
    Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

    Mansur OSCE
    Afghan students and their instructors take part in a high-altitude
    training exercise in preparation for two weeks of winter training on
    survival, mountaineering, search and rescue, avalanche awareness, and
    snow analysis in Khoja Obigarm, 50 kilometers north of Dushanbe, 12
    February 2013. Photo by Mansur Ziyoev

    AFGHAN BORDER POLICE COMPLETE OSCE-SUPPORTED WINTER PATROL COURSE

    This has got to be the most extreme OSCE activity, bar none. Those spotted coats make them look like snow leopards!

    Afghan border police officers completed a two-week practical course
    on winter patrolling at the Tajik Border Troops Training Centre in
    Gissar today. The course was organized by the OSCE Office in Tajikistan.

    Fifteen mid-rank and front-line officers from the Afghan Border
    Police attended the course, which was held as part of the OSCE Office’s
    Patrol Programming and Leadership project.

     

    Tajikistan Gorge

    Photo by Eric  Haglund

    GORGEOUS GORGES

    Go and see all of Eric Haglund’s photos — and perhaps someone can explain to me how they get the water that particular shade of blue in Tajikistan. Is it some chemical property of the rocks? Or?

    MORE LINKS

    In case you missed the interview with me in CA-News, here’s the English version — there’s a bit on Tajikistan.

    The definitive from Blake and my take — The US Will Not Use Tajikistan as Its Backyard on the Way out of Afghanistan

    Electricity Governance in Tajikistan things can only go up, right?

    On the one hand, the working group found that there are no formal
    barriers to obtaining key documents or to public access to policy and
    regulatory decision-making processes. At the same time, there is no
    legal framework to facilitate public scrutiny and involvement, nor
    practical mechanisms to place information in the public domain. In
    practice, the lack of formal procedures makes meaningful public debate
    or oversight of the sector all but impossible.

    MORE PHOTO LINKS

    o Pamir bicycle tour, part of a whole wonderful series on Central Asia

    o Uncornered Market, another great Central Asia collection

    o This has got to be the most incredible flight over the mountains of Tajikistan in what the authors describe as a “lunchbox with wings” — must see

    o Pamiri home — which seems very simple until you read about all the symbolic elements of faith in it

    o A Russian tortoise in Tajikistan.

     

  • EurasiaNet’s Trilling Does a Hatchet Job on His NGO Colleagues

    Karimov rumours
    A photo that is implied to be of Karimov on March 28, 2013 at his residence in Tashkent. Photo by gov.uz presidential news service.

    Idrisov
    A photo from the meeting he is said to have taken with the foreign minister of Kazakhstan, with different wallpaper. The news story says that Karimov received Idrisov. Photo by gov.uz.

    David Trilling of EurasiaNet has a piece called "Anatomy of a Heart-Attack Rumor" that is supposed to impress us with the leet reporting skillz of "real journalists" who are able to cut through the fog of emigre and NGO obfuscation to get us "the real story" — which is that rumours about the possible heart attack of Uzbek strong man Islam Karimov may be unfounded because most seem to trace to a single emigre source.

    Indeed, the state media is reporting that Karimov met with the foreign minister of Kazakhstan on March 28 seeming to indicate that he is really just fine — even if we need more proof, as we can trust fellow dictators to close ranks on a story like this. Although those nicely-sharpened pencils in the photo can't tell us whether they were sharpened on March 28 of this year or 10 years ago, the difference in the shades of wall paper between Karimov's picture and the picture of the minister could hold a clue to a more favourable presentation.

    So yeah, we get it that news is so hard to get out of Uzbekistan that you study wallpaper in official state photos for clues. That's my point — about how absurd it can get. And seemingly Trilling's — you can't trust biased NGo critics of Karimov.

    His blog post falls flat, however, because EurasiaNet is essentially yet another NGO, funded by Soros like all the other NGOs in this field, and as biased as they can be in its selectivity. That's why you have to ask why this hit job was so necessary.

    Yeah, we get it that the emigres have an axe to grind, and NGOs like CPJ, even if very careful — and they were, with this story! — can report rumors without any facts behind them as they seek to make a larger advocacy point about the awful treatment of journalists in jail in Uzbekistan.

    But hey, when it comes to an aging and not-so-healthy dictator in a closed society, that's okay to do, you know? Even Trilling admits that it's hard to get news out of this society.

    Trilling also too hastily dismisses CPJ's all-important second piece of information from the Kazah opposition newspaper Republika that probably convinced them to run with the story — that Karimov's daughter had rushed back home. To counter that perfectly legitimate take on the daughter's travel, Trilling makes it seem like as UNESCO's diplomat from Uzbekistan, that she would go home frequently and we shouldn't read meaning into every little trip. Huh? No, she wouldn't. She lives in Paris. And with good reason, because there is no more grand business for her or her more infamous sister, Gulnara, inside Uzbekistan as there once was.

    And with the wonders of email and Skype, she can keep in touch with her minders — such as they are — in the government back home and of course her father and other relatives and doesn't need to physically return  home for instructions — that in fact she'd get from the Uzbek ambassador in Paris in any event, most likely, if necessary (it's pretty much a ceremonial job).

    There's also trouble enough in the Karimov empire even without heart attacks.

    We all get it about Muhammad Solih. I have no relationship to him or any particular use from him, and have never even met him, as far as I recall. I think he's been sly at times in portraying him as opposition to Karimov without explaining the theocratic Islamist tendencies he represents in that opposition. (BTW, the "People's Movement of Uzbekistan' is a mainly collapsed and failed umbrella movement that he tried to start; he was originally known as the head of the opposition Erk or "Freedom" Party).

    But this is par for the course with such regimes. The oppositions these regimes get are often as bad as, or worse, than the regimes themselves — a fact that those regimes never tire of informing you — and gleefully so. They like to keep things that way, in fact, and at times artificially incite it. They especially love to keep the groups quarelling with each other — and for good measure, in the case of Uzbekistan, there seem to have been not only dirty tricks and discrediting and intimidation campaigns, but even assassinations of opposition figures abroad.

    The Uzbek opposition isn't unmindful of the capacities for anonymous social media to do its work — but hey, so is the MNB or secret police of Uzbekistan.

    I instantly thought of another "anatomy of a rumour" that David Trilling in fact exploited to knock on the opposition and the human rights activists, instead of even conceding that there was just as much a chance that the intelligence agencies planted it as the opposition.

    That was the story of the "suicide student" in Uzbekistan who existed only on Facebook, as it happens.  I took part in directly by reporting it skeptically and fully — unlike Sarah Kendzior of Registan.net who reported it from her perch as fact — and weeped for the woman who was killed by telling too much about herself on Facebook, supposedly.

    I reported on the story as one that the human rights groups in Uzbekistan were researching in good faith — after all it sounded serious — a woman studying abroad is summoned for interrogation when she went home, and threatened, and then winds up committing suicide. Say, Registan not only reported that one faithfully and breathlessly, in ways they never report on human rights stories most of the time, just like they reported on the threats of the MNB against two students they adopted. When Kendzior did concede it was a hoax, both her post and the numerous nasty comments under it took the regime's perspective

    When Trilling's "freelancer" (and you know who you are!) then turned in an astoundingly bad-faith piece on this hoax blaming soley the opposition — and worse, claiming that a human rights activist, Elena Urlayeva, was "gullible," I sought to dispel this hit job. I was stunned at the curious willingness to believe a known intelligence-related publication uzmetronom.com as a source — and creduously, as they claimed that instantly, they had accessed not only Uzbek authorities — understandable, given their role as a tip sheet for such authorities — but German border authorities, a stretch even for a government somewhat disposed to be friends with Uzbekistan for the sake of their military base in Termez.

    I had to wonder about that — but certainly there was never any reason to trash Urlayeva, who was just doing her job and who exhibited extraordinary persistence in researching this story on the ground, where it mattered (unlike all the other swaggering Western journos) and who herself ultimately pronounced it as a hoax — as the story continued to live, through other odd permutations involving RFE/RL, BBC, and a strange couple bearing the tale — with the woman finally denouncing her partner as an intelligence agent.

    There, too, Registan rushed to tell us all it was the opposition, if not Salih, others, and never conceded that it could just as likely be intelligence operatives stirring up trouble — the claim of the agent who is sent to assassinate someone and then turns to support him against the regime is an old, old meme in this region and in the KGB-style operations. We may never know. But there's no reason to impugn the opposition or the human rights activists in these stories, as there is no evidence that they concocted it, and in fact researched it and ran it to ground. Would the opposition be really stupid enough to make a fake FB page with a fake (and strange) occupation as working for their organization (!) and claiming the person was interrogated and killed themselves when there was no body and no evidence, and they'd only be shown up as fakers? Why would they deliberately do that to themselves?

    In this story of the heart-attack, we may never know, but again, you have to ask: why would the opposition put out a story easily shown to be untrue if a) they really believed it to be true b) merely reported what sources they thought were reliable told them? Couldn't it just as likely be Karimov's rivals inside the regime in Tashkent, who surely exist? Trilling's implication here as with the suicide story was to imply that if all sources lead to Solih, he is "making up stuff". And maybe he is. But showing him as the source of a rumour hasn't achieved the "anatomy" that Trilling imagines. It just shows that exile leaders believe stories told them, or feel they need to publicize them. It's not like Karimov is young and in the pink of health.

    Zakon.kz, an independent Kazakh website which Trilling tries to slam as yet another gullible purveyor of Solih-based rumours in fact ran a story (that Trilling links to!) with the headline "President's Daughter Denies Rumours of His Heart Attack; In Fact He's Dancing". Trilling did not speak Russian a year ago  — he may have learned more of it in the last year. He should know enough, even using Google-translator (which is what all the non-Russian-speaking reporters at EurasiaNet do) to see that the headline is not about purveying a Solih rumor, but the opposite.  The story is in fact about a heated Twitter exchange that @realgoogoosha — Karimova — had with someone who questioned her about her father's status — she said he was dancing at Novruz. To be sure, we don't seem to have the kind of lovely state TV footage of Karimov dancing that we had last year, that also showed our own Amb. George Krol dancing at the mass Novruz event.

    Says Trilling:

    That’s when the rumor really took off. Who went next isn’t clear, but
    it’s now all over dozens of Russian-language sites covering the former
    Soviet Union – mostly verbatim from Solih. Today Vechernii Bishkek cites Zakon.kz in its lede, noting that another source has come forward. But the Zakon.kz report cites Solih and Rosbalt (so Solih) and Newsru.com, which cites Solih. So Vechernii Bishkek's second source is via Solih.

    Here's what else Zakon.kz says — hardly sounding like the dupes Trilling implies:

    Сведения об инфаркте Каримова распространил сайт «Народное движение
    Узбекистана». Информация была не раз опровергнута (в частности, информированным
    источником РИА «Новости»), однако один из главных политических оппонентов
    нынешнего президента настаивает на версии сердечного приступа.

    The news about Karimov's heart attack was disseminated by the site "Popular Movement of Uzbekistan". The information has been repeatedly rebutted (including by the information source RIA Novosti); however, one of the main political opponents of the current president has insisted on the story of the heart attack.

    CPJ merely took the opportunity to ask questions about media freedom in any event and clearly state that rumours were swirling. So why the hit job on them? Not for the first time from the Friends of Registan crowd either, as CPJ suffered a savaging by Joshua Foust merely for reporting on the way in which the US administration differentiates between Belarus and Uzbekistan in its advocacy.

    In this case, Trilling could have called up his fellow Soros-funded NGO and asked for a comment and clarification before making it seem as if they are bad journalists. They aren't. They are reporting on what regional media is saying and making it clear that it is only that — reports, allegations.

    So this sort of snark from a swaggering non-profit reporter who himself isn't in Uzbekistan just doesn't seem merited, given in fact how CPJ and its sources, which Trilling mischaracterized, really told the story:

    CPJ cites Kazakhstan’s Respublika, which cites, you guessed it, Solih. And Rosbalt. So Solih. Respublika adds that Karimov’s younger daughter (the one who sued a French newspaper
    for calling her a “dictator’s daughter”), Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva, has
    rushed home in recent days. (As Uzbekistan’s permanent representative to
    UNESCO, Karimova-Tillyaeva presumably visits Uzbekistan from time to
    time.) CPJ also cites Lenta.ru, which cites Solih and Rosbalt. 
    So, in other words, we have Solih – a Karimov rival who fled
    Uzbekistan almost 20 years ago – as the only source. Unfortunately,
    that's how we get a lot of our news out of tightly controlled Uzbekistan
    these days: from single sources who are often abroad.

    When the word comes about Karimov's real illness or demise, it may be from these single sources who are most devoted to watching and most stand to benefit from transition — so it's not somehow inappropriate to listen to them and report on what they say. And neither regional opposition newspapers or CPJ did anything wrong.

    As for this Church Lady admonition at the end — one has to marvel at that sort of strange chiding given the numerous pieces gleefully enjoying the dictator's daughter's demise and of course speculating on the succession — including one I co-authored with an OSI program director at his behest more than a year ago.

    Certainly, Karimov’s incapacitation or death would be big news, possibly ushering in a struggle for power. Until we see the man in person, there’s no sure-fire way to confirm that something isn’t up. But the sourcing on the heart-attack rumors is desperately thin. It’s almost like someone is wishing Karimov would have a heart attack.

    Let me also point out that in Russian, as the language this might get reported in anywhere along the chain, "serdechny pristup" doesn't mean necessarily a heart attack as we understand it. Many's the Russian friend we've had who would tell us in the morning about their "heart spell" using this term, who might even call from a hospital, but by evening be available for hopping around bars or restaurants, smoking furiously. Karimov may have only felt faint if he danced at Novruz.

    EurasiaNet turns out stuff like this so they can seem "balanced" and go on pretending they aren't an advocacy operation. I've never understood the need to do this, given that they are a nonprofit funded from a single source, and it's okay to be a "community journalist" or a page where a lot of "citizen journalists" have their say. If you want to be hard-nosed about the five Ws, you'd go to work for AFP or AP or Reuters, but Trilling prefers to have a safety Eurasianet.

    I can just hear Justin Burke and the other EurasiaNet editors and managers grumping that they are a professional news operation and can't be expected to just cut and paste press releases from avid NGO colleagues who might be a little more eager than they are to report the demise of dictators (if Central Asia were just another region, George Soros would have no reason to support a nonprofit news agency about it, and indeed he may be expected, like other funders and the US government, to shift his focus from this region after US troops leave to China and the Middle East along with the other pivoters of the world.)

    Yet they are selective in their exposes — this gotcha was apparently too glee-producing to pass up, but EurasiaNet never criticizes Human Rights Watch, e.g. the months and months of silence they maintained as their office in Tashkent was put under pressure and finally expelled — indeed, I was  asked to observe an embargo on this development. EurasiaNet writes about reports on itself or Soros operations abroad as funded by Soros, but they never write that HRW has a $100 million gift from Soros, and is Soros-funded like themselves for work in Central Asia.

    In fact, if there were a disclaimer about every Soros-funded operation featured in EurasiaNet, the world might see it for what it is, a foundation newsletter about events in the field. And it's okay to be such a thing, and I myself was once proud to work for such an entity. Yet some of the swaggering journalists there have greater aspirations and can shore up their own flagging egos over the fact that they don't work in "real" commercial news operations by stepping on other NGOs.

    The reporters at EurasiaNet are also not above merely conveying the official media as proof that the opposition and NGOs are "lying" — even though we have far less grounds to believe them, knowing of their constant manipulations.

  • Scant Output On Human Rights in Uzbekistan after Foreign Minister’s Washington Trip

    Kerry Kamilov
    US State Department. Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov and Secy State John Kerry, March 7, 2013.

    As we know, before the Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov came to the US last week,  Sarah Kendzior did her best to convince us that it was pointless to raise human rights problems with him, and Human Rights Watch nevertheless came up with a whole concrete list of what they wanted Secretary of State John Kerry to raise.

    Mike Posner, the outgoing Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights, recently criticized his fellow NGOs, now that he had been on the other side of the table from them, as needing to become more concrete in their proposals and focused on policy to reduce abuses rather than merely documenting human rights violations.

    I think the human rights industry would still do well to keep documenting because there really are wars over the facts, especially on strategic countries like Uzbekistan, and because the US government does really keep resisting doing even partially the right thing due to geopolitical constraints and exigencies. Especially when there's a system in place to give military aid or not depending on whether there are mass human rights abuses, you have to play the game of documenting, naming and shaming and not getting sucked into partial "solutions".

    Why can't we document human rights, guys?

    Oh, dear, I remember the CATO Institute essay of 1979 that spoke of "the endless chasing after human rights violations," i.e. the-then infant human rights monitoring industry that seemed to endlessly document, publicize, name and shame, but never effect the kind of systemic changes of democracy and free enterprise that CATO and others would see as pre-requisites for getting human rights results. Then, we had 30 years of democracy movements and colour revolutions and regime changes and Arab springs — and then everybody went "off" democracy again because it didn't have enough rule of law, you know, human rights. As Democracy Lab's latest sour-on-democracy piece lets us know.

    So Human Rights Watch does come up with a list of concrete proposals, but it is based on documentation. To be sure, some of it is the sort of "be good! right now!" stuff that always sounds so ridiculous, especially when it's selective. And when Melinda Haring and Michael Cecire essentially say, "Your democracies turned out crappy! You must have the rule of law right now! Stop, thief!" it also seems kind of, well, hortatory. Where are those concrete proposals that Mike Posner so desperately wanted?  In fairness, there are some in the Democracy Lab piece of the incremental USAID-style "rule-of-law" program variety, like "let's make Georgia's notion of plea-bargaining more like the West's" or "let's praise Georgia for amnestying officials with non-violent offenses from the previous government even if that's not quite the ROL per se". And…that's just it. The things to do in these countries still under Russia's shadow with creepy intelligence agencies from the Soviet era often amount only to those little incremental steps.

    But having concrete proposals and the human rights rather than the democracy focus means you do have to keep documenting, and keep exposing, and keep saying "be good!" about things like child and adult forced labour in Uzbekistan, and it is absolutely perfectly fine to propose as a policy to the United States that it stop giving Tashkent a pass on this. After all, the US has laws — it has the trafficking statutes that require the US not to do business with countries using slave labour. And it has a whole system where countries get automatically downgraded in their status if they don't follow the proposed reforms — often easy things like at least sign laws or at least make task forces, the sort of anodyne stuff that multilaterals and governments come up with.

    Yet the US doesn't do that with Uzbekistan, but gives it a pass for the simple reason that we need it due to the war in Afghanistan — to get supplies in, and more to the point now, to get soldiers and expensive war equipment out. So here we all are, this won't last forever (past 2014?) and we need to just keep asking and not worry about the futility. Remember, "For us, there is only the trying/the rest is not our business?"

    So what happened?

    Well, there was a photo op, then secret talks. Then the noon day press briefing. And a query:

    QUESTION: Can we get a readout on the Uzbek Foreign Minister
    meeting, specifically on any human rights issues that Secretary Kerry
    would have raised?

    MS. NULAND: Well, as Secretary Kerry said himself in the spray
    before the meeting, we always raise our human rights concerns and our
    view with the Uzbeks that the more progress they can make in democratic
    rights, human rights in Uzbekistan, the more stable and prosperous and
    secure the country will be. I’m not going to get into details of the
    bilateral other than to say, as we always do, it came up this morning.

    I checked with the US Embassy in Tashkent on Twitter, noting that this read-out was rather scant. Answer:

    @usembtashkent

    @catfitz not much to share at the moment. pls follow our website postings and/or tweets.

    Share.

    Okay.

    Here's a piece making the arguments by Bennett Freeman and Mark Lagon; the former is part of the businesses, unions and NGOs forming the cotton campaign; the latter is a former US administration official responsible for trafficking issues.

    Senior U.S. officials need to make clear to the Uzbek government that to
    avoid sanctions it must agree to allow the ILO to monitor the harvest
    this fall. The ILO is the most competent international body to determine
    the true scope of the problem and to begin working with Tashkent on a
    serious plan to address it.

    It's good that a very clear call has gone out to make the condition for the prevention of a downgrading essentially the invitation to the ILO to inspect the harvest — seriously, not as just some dialogue in the capital, but having experts go out to all the regions.

    There's some faint notion this is gettable, because the Uzbek government already quietly works with UNICEF to allow UNICEF to do some sample monitoring and make some recommendations — although this is very hushed up by UNICEF, Tashkent, and governments — and in any event is not a substitute for serious labour conditions monitoring such as the ILO does.

    But while it's great that the focus has finally been brought more forcibly to bear publicly on the Obama administration by these largely Obama-supporting groups, the US isn't the leading actor in this drama. Uzbekistan, Russia, India, China, Pakistan are. We need every single one of them for our other drama involved in getting the troops out, especially Russia

    So I think NGOs and the Soros gang need to step up much more comprehensibly in a full-bore, comprehensive agenda on Russia-US relations, not just Uzbek-US relations.  More direct and international focus and coalition building is needed on the ILO. But since they tend to always fall back to doing American things more than any other, here's what they simply must do: They need to call on Obama not to go to the G20 meeting in St. Petersburg coming up — and there is reason to do this because Putin dissed Obama by not coming to the US to the G8 meeting last year, but sending Medvedev instead.

    It's a no-brainer, easy to do, costs nothing, and is an awareness campaign. Mr. President, don't go to Pitir because the human rights violations for which Russia is responsible abroad and at home are so great, that you should not lend them your luster as leader of the free world.

    For extra credit, overcome the usual reluctance to rain on the sports parade and call to boycott the Sochi Olympics — or call on Obama not to lend his presence to that jamboree, either. He need not go. He can send Kerry. This is how you build the Wall of Shame around Russia that needs to be built.

    They need to make a coalition of groups — cite Syria first and foremost because Russia is the greatest factor in supporting mass crimes of humanity there; they need to cite Russia's own abysmal record citing the Magnitsky List; and they need to cite the Caucasus crimes which are massive — more than 400 disappearances even by the state's own admission; and then they need to cite things like Russia's purchase of Uzbek cotton; Russia's army bases in the region fraught with human rights violations such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, etc.. The stakes are too high, the abuses too large to keep pulling punches, giving Russia a politically-correct or timid pass, and focusing with the avidity of safe surrogacy on the US. "Blame America First".

    I've been critical at times of the Cotton Campaign, where I myself worked for two years, because it has tended to focus on reachable Western targets with fears of litigation or media negativity, like garment companies, and not focus on the actual buyers of most of the cotton, like Russia, India, and Pakistan — or the international bodies where Russia and Uzbekistan are a member and need to be challenged in that context, like the ILO.I'm glad to see this call for more work at the ILO, but it still has the feeling of the "buddy approach" or "working with" Uzbekistan — as if it had good will! as if it were going to do that! — instead of pressuring it to change directly.

    I've also felt that a campaign that always seems to focus on the #firstworldproblems of buying a dress at H&N or not (we can't really be sure if Uzbek cotton is or isn't in their supply chain) and evil corporations was more about the left's eternal fascination with undermining capitalism by seizing on its sins  than about human rights. There was also the lesser focus on the actual monitors in Uzbekistan, who, like the tiny cotton pickers, earned a fraction of the salary of Western campaigners, and the unjustifiable position of focusing only on children as being cuter — although it's a problem for adults, too. I felt this campaign just wasn't really grasping the nettle.

    To be sure, recently, now under new management, I saw this campaign do its first really successful media campaigns — first around the evergreen of Gulnara Karimova's antics, which is low-hanging fruit, but also the harder nut — getting mainstream network TV — CNN in the US — to finally pick up the story and do it right — featuring the children, the monitors like Elena Urlaeva, the success of enlisting some corporations, and then need to get Uzbekistan itself to do more and for those countries buying to be part of the pressure on them. This is one of the best things ever done on the largest state-run forced labour program in the world

    I don't say these campaigns are easy or that trying to move ILO resolutions isn't sometimes futile. I just think the problem of Uzbekistan is fundamentally not about Western corporations and their evils, even if they contributed, or about using "soft law" such as the OECD (I think that action was a flop because it silenced NGOs from their critique while reconciliation arrangements were made with corporations that weren't really that culpable).

    I think the problem with Uzbekistan is fundamentally about the Soviet past, the dependency on Russia (for the first time now we see the remittances mainly from labor migrants in Russia are higher than the income from cotton, see?) and not about evil Western capitalism or venal Western governments. The eternally popular Western NGO focus on these actors means that it becomes "about itself". The lefty labour and cause groups that populate this campaign could never bite down hard and blame state socialism for Uzbekistan's problem and advocate a free market — that goes against their religion. You always feel with this analysis that if Uzbekistan stopped using child labour, and paid the workers a living wage to hand-pick cotton in the fields, the left in the Western world would be happy to now buy the results of their labour for their infants' cloth diaper program, rather than worry that these toilers couldn't live a life of lattes and ipads such as they enjoy themselves — and which they can enjoy more of if they go and work construction in Moscow.

    Meanwhile, what's the real solution? Because even if a million girls don't buy their Gap shirts or whatever, it won't matter.

    The labor migrants could be doing the work that children are performing for free or for pennies, but they can't make a living with such back-breaking work so they go abroad. The Uzbek government has wised up and put out less kids visibly in the fields and made their teachers, policemen, soldiers, factory workers etc. work for free — which was always just as bad and the campaign always should have focused on that too, but opted for the cuter kid angle.

    But what the real problem back of all this is, is communism and Soviet-style control of the market. Farmers cannot sell their cotton on an open market. They have quotas which they turn over to the government, and the government sells it. They get loans for seeds and supplies — but they can't meet the payments or even get the loans. They are in a double bind, can't meet quotas or meet loan payments and use child or day labour as a result. If you suddenly mechanized this industry more, the way USAID is busy trying to do, you exacerbate the situation by depriving some families of that teenage labour and soldier labour that they really need to supplement the remittances. You also screw the farmers over as less of them are needed. Where are you going to put all those people, USAID? In prison, as suddenly "Islamic fundamentalists" as the government has done with about 5000 or more of their neighbours?!

    This is not an easy nut to crack, but the ideology that focuses only on Western perfidy or US government hypocrisy and not Russian complicity is really wrong. Yes, it's hard to focus on Russia. Nobody lets you do it. When you  try to do it, everywhere in the world, you are told that you are an evil war mongering anti-Islamic imperialist blah blah. Of course, it's not your military that killed the overwhelming majority of people in Afghanistan — it's the Taliban. So here we all are.

    It's a muddle and not easy but you have to keep hitting hard on it and not get caught up in what the State Department or the Registanis say fretting about realisms. They take care of themselves without you. There really isn't any reason the US can't change their trafficking rating and downgrade Uzbekistan. They can compartmentalize the realtionship because we all know that business really doesn't mean that much.

    I also think that the key to this is labor rights and the ILO and that more effort has to go back into that venue, as frustrating as it is, mainly simply trying to line up all the delegations of friendly countries, trade unions, and employers for the eventual vote that you will eventually get on the Commission of Inquiry or other relevant action. Only a labor rights approach — as distinct from the more hypothetical hate campaign on evil corporations who buy exploited cotton — will more directly save victims of trafficking and forced labor and the remittance workers in deplorable positions, especially in the nearer abroad like Kazakhstan — and that means slogging at the UN and OSCE even though this is a long proposition. What else is there?

     

  • Turkmen Foreign Minister Headed to Washington This Month

    Desert Trees 2
    Turkmens were turned out by the state to plant trees in the desert this week: will they take root? Photo by Golden Age turkmenistan.gov.tm

    This is interesting — Rashid Meredov, the only one of past dictator Saparmurat Niyazov's men left standing in the Berdymukhamedov administration — and still left standing there, too, unlike so many other ministers dismissed in disgrace! — is coming to the US "some time later this month".

    Robert O. Blake, Jr., Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs has a lengthy statement on Turkmen-American affairs, such as they are, at the Turkic American Conference this week.

    I was wondering to what do we owe the pleasure of some of the recent political prisoner releases. Such things don't happen "just so" in this part of the world — they happen as part of a careful bargaining. So somebody — our ambassadors, in Ashgabat, in Vienna, elsewhere — have been pushing for some of these "concessions" before Meredov got the gift of this trip.

    That's my hunch. Of course, it might not at all be that stark or that conscious or that stated. But it is sort of in the area of the sweeteners that have to happen to do transactions with these regimes.

    What does the US need from Turkmenistan?

    o oil and gas rights — but they won't get those, not any time soon

    o help to Afghanistan so they don't have to give it — and they get some of that

    o access to go in and out of Afghanistan and prosecute and wind down the war — which they get some of, and at a price

    o help with Iran, i.e. by not helping Iran — which they get some of

    o other stuff — regional cooperation on water, building the Wall of Shame around Russia, things like that.

    And then there's TAPI. TAPI strikes me as one of those totemic Silk Road illusions that never comes to pass but maybe is never meant to come to pass, as it is a metaphor to bring together people across borders, like the Internet…or something.

    But Turkmenistan has gas, Pakistan and India need gas, and Afghanistan does too, and there it is. It inches forward.

    Interestingly, human rights and democracy — or whatever passes for those issues in Ashgabat — are now always woven into the statements on Turkmenistan like a red thread in a Turkmen carpet. But not a red thread that will stand out compared to the orange thread of gas…or something. But still:

    In January I had very productive
    meetings with President Berdimuhamedov and other senior Turkmen
    officials in Ashgabat, and later this month Foreign Minister Meredov
    will come to Washington to meet with Secretary Kerry. In these talks we
    discuss frankly, as friends, all aspects of our relationship, including
    our appreciation for the support that Turkmenistan provides to
    Afghanistan and its leadership on increasing regional connectivity and
    economic cooperation; the growing commercial relationship between our
    countries; and the importance of building civil society and democratic
    institutions and ensuring respect for human rights.

    Increasing people-to-people ties
    and cultural exchanges are an important part of developing any bilateral
    relationship. Last November, our embassy in Ashgabat staged a three-day
    “U.S. Culture Days in Turkmenistan” event that featured American jazz,
    bluegrass, and rock groups; a painter and a jewelry maker, both from
    Albuquerque, New Mexico, with which Ashgabat has a sister city
    relationship; a delegation from the Smithsonian Institution, which has
    longstanding collaboration with Turkmenistan; and a chef from New York.

     

    A chef. Okay. Well, good! I can't seem to find out what he cooked. Cheeseburgers?

    What I do hope doesn't happen on this trip is that there are those sort of embarrassing moments with dictators that occur at things like round tables at museums where we pretend we're all interested in world culture together. Some of that is necessary to oil the wheels of commerce, but there shouldn't be any sort of Vint Cerf letters praising Berdy's contribution to the Internet as we've had in the past — ugh. Please, let's don't. Let's try to attend to appearances this time.

    Human rights groups, sharpen up your petitions. It's hard to have things to ask for concretely when some of the prisoners are out, others you don't know about or they show know progress, and it's hard to capture the deplorable situation in an "ask".

    Even so, I hope Kerry and others at the State Department do the following:

    o not praise the press law and make it clear it's not enough and forcing stringers or freelancers or blogger to register is not on

    o speaking of the Internet, open it up, stop blocking Youtube, Twitter, etc. and join the rest of the world

    o move forward on university, professional, medical, etc. exchanges and restore the Peace Corps which was kicked out

    There's lots one could add — "come clean and report all the revenue from oil and gas sales that go directly into the president's coffers" but State Department people like "doables" and "deliverables".

    As for TAPI, one could always ask them to be more transparent on any number of things. Good luck.

    What about a little thing like making the jobs exchange that is being held out as a boon to the impoverished people of these countries a transparent and accountable thing, so that the people in those countries get those jobs, get living wages, and it doesn't just get outsourced or people exploited? Use the Internet for something good.

     

  • Will There Be Conflict in Central Asia After US Troop Withdrawal? Interview with Me in CA-News (English Original)

    Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) propaganda video. Comments on Youtube suggest they get some resistance from their compatriots.

    I was delighted to give an interview to CA-News, which is a Central Asian news online publication based in Bishkek associated with AKIpress.org  (in Russian).

    But because there are a half dozen or so mistakes in the translation that makes me sound like I'm saying the opposite of what I actually said [fortunately fixed within a day!], and because not everybody reads Russian, I'm reprinting the original Russian questions and my answers in English below. I've asked them to make the corrections. I don't mind, because this is an important independent publication and I support its mission. I think they do a good job.

    I'm not sure how they came to ask me, a person who is not a formal expert on the region, for such an extensive interview, but they did, perhaps in search of independent analysis.

    Although I've spent a career of 35 years in this field where I have travelled extensively throughout Eurasia, and lived and worked in Russia and travelled frequently to Russia, Belarus, Poland in particular for OSCE, I have never been to a single Central Asian country. I worked in the Central Eurasian Program at OSI for six years without such a boon. It's not for any lack of desire; it just so happened that at different times when I was actually invited to go to Kyrgzystan when I worked with various human rights groups, or Kazakhstan when I was a public member at the OSCE, it simply happened that I couldn't go. I doubt I could get a visa to Turkmenistan, having written critically about it for OSI for six years, or Uzbekistan, where I also wrote critically for two years — and of course before that, I edited two weeklies for RFE/RL and other publications for many years.

    Even so, I study the regional Russian-language and English-language press very carefully, go to all the conferences I can, and interview people directly either when they visit the US, or when I see them at international conferences or over email and Skype. That's certainly not a substitute for a personal visit, where you can get the feel of things and have many important one-on-one conversations. But in lack of direct exposure on my skin of the winds of Central Asia, I'm no different than most pundits who have either never been there, or have been there only infrequently, and don't even speak any regional languages.

    I do think there's an advantage to having a critical independent view of this critical region. I think those not in formal structures can speak out more loudly about the corrosive effect on human rights that the US and Europe have had; the ongoing pernicious role that Russia plays; and the troublesome future of Chinese domination — not to mention the ways in which the oppressive autocratic regimes play these factors off against each other to keep themselves in power and their people miserable.

    You have nothing to lose if your job does not depend on some certain perspective. I find that the status quo in the human rights movement is to minimize the threat of terror or unrest and play up the awfulness of the regimes. That's a whitewash, given the groups in the region that have many, many more thousands of adherents that Western-style human rights groups — like Hizb-ut-Tahir.

    As for Washington, I find that far from there being the "neo con" belief that a) there is rampant terrorism and a horrible threat of Islamization and/or b) some imminent "Arab Spring" coming, there is actually nothing of the sort. Oh, there's that one paper at Jamestown Foundation or something, but that's it.

    That is, those on the left, the "progressives" and the "RealPolitik" adherents constantly pontificate as if there were some horrid neo-cons or hawks or conservatives saying these things, but in fact these groups, which have dwindling influence in any event, either are following RealPolitik themselves or don't even care at all about this region (mainly the latter).

    So in my view, there is this whole fake industry of anti-anti commentary, which runs like this:

    "There isn't any Islamic threat at all in this region, perish the thought, it's just a poor region with dictators who in fact go overboard suppressing legitimate Muslim activity"

    "There's no Muslim fervour in fact, these states are Sovietized and secularized".

    "Nothing is going to happen when troops leave, it is all wildly exaggerated and people who say that seem not to realize that the US troops are the conflict generator, not the IMU"

    "Russia has little influence any more in this region; it has less gas extraction, it has less money, it has length troop strength and its efforts to make a Warsaw Pact — the CSTO — or a Soviet Re-Union with a customs union have mainly failed."

    And so on.

    While each one of those statements can be true up to a point, they also lead to this strange endorsement of the status quo in these regions that in fact ends up serving the regimes, in my view.

    Russia's influence is considerable, and it has been behind unrest by its action (as it was in Bakiyev's ouster and its threats to Atambayev) or inaction (with the pogroms in Osh). The remittance economies are huge — for the labour migrants from Tajikistan in particular, but increasingly Uzbekistan and even Turkmenistan. That means that Russia winds up dominating the lives of these countries through some of their most vulnerable citizens — not just the mainly male workers but the females left back home as head of households with children. The Russian language did not disappear from this region, even if it is taught less, because dominating Russian mainstream media, and Russian-controlled social media like mail.ru and Vkontakte, are very big factors in the media space in this region.

    As for terrorism, sure, it gets exaggerated and the regimes "do it to themselves". But there are also real terrorist acts that occur. There is a sense that the presence of US troops in Afghanistan has ensured a kind of "frozen conflict" in this region that isn't on the official list of the frozen conflicts. The IMU has been tied up mainly fighting NATO troops. So when they go away, then what? Where do they go, those 5000 or 8000 or however many fighters there are? (And probably there are analysts saying they are only 2000, but who really knows, what, you did a door-to-door survey, guys?) Will they peacefully melt back into the countryside and farm happily? Or what? I think it's okay to look at that question critically without being branded as a terrorism hysteric.

    Ditto the question of "Arab Spring". No one thinks there is any Arab Spring coming to Central Asia. I don't know of a single pundit or analyst saying this. Yet again, there is the "anti-anti-" industry making this claim, mainly from the Registan gang. The problem is that when you adopt that scornful skepticism, you stop seeing reality when it appears. As Paul Goble put it, there is a way in which talking about the Arab Spring is a little spring in itself. And there are signs of unrest here and there, and you don't know how they will turn out.

    Remember, the same gang at Registan — Sarah Kendzior and Katy Pearce — were predicting with firm determination that discussion of oppression on the Internet was causing a chill in use, a decline in use, and even the shuttering of popular discussion pages. They implied that there would never be any Twitter revolution in Azerbaijan, that it was going to be slow and incremental and we shouldn't artificially speed it up by over-amplifying human rights cases.

    Yet thousands of people keep demonstrating in Azerbaijan despite the news of repression, and they keep using Internet tools to make their case — tools that Pearce is now blithely measuring with machinopology as if she had never written that Internet use would be chilled by such expression. It hasn't been. Facebook membership boomed. Will this "spring" last forever? I truly doubt it. Not with potential European and American oil interests — and actually existing Russian and Iranian oil interests — in this mix. Everybody will blame the West for the crackdown in Azerbaijan that is likely to be inevitable and thorough, and fume at the regime-tropic USAID grantees that they ignored last year (or even cooperated with) as the smoking gun of American perfidy.  But it will be Russia's money and military role that will be the bigger factor.

    This is how I'm seeing it, in the end: To the extent Russian wants or needs conflict, or is weakened and can't efficiently prevent or manage conflict, there will be conflict in Central Asia after NATO troops are withdrawn.

    Part of that resistance to Russian state intrusion will be Islamic ferment. If analysts were busy telling everyone these were secular Soviet states and Arab Spring can't happen, they will be uncomfortably confronted with the reality that Islam is a great organizing tool in countries where it has historic roots, and this need not be seen as a threat to the West. Yet because they've been engaged in such an industry telling us it's not a threat to the West, they will be embarrassed when in fact it will be — as they emblematically were when the Egyptian woman activist just feted at the State Department turned out to be such an anti-American hater, 9/11 celebrator, and horrid anti-semite on Twitter, and not because she was hacked — a fiction State had to indulge in to save face.

    (more…)

  • Yes, It Matters if the West Gives Military Aid to Uzbekistan — So Don’t

    Oksaroy
    Gen. Petraeus meets President Karimov in Tashkent in 2009. Photo: US Embassy in Tashkent.

    Sarah Kendzior has a perfectly dreadful article posted on AlJazeera where she is a frequent contributor. "Does it matter if the West gives military aid to Uzbekistan?" she asks, sucking a thumb that she has turned up in fact for military aid because she's never seriously questioned it.  She and the other gaggle of former defense analysts at Registan.net generally support the status quo of US policy — and that means supporting these regimes, albeit with occasional criticism for credibility's sake — because we need them to get in and out of the war in Afghanistan.

    AlJazeera has a skewed view of the world tilting to the anti-American, pro-Palestinian, "progressive" line that dovetails with Kendzior's crowd — and they censor or just don't cover stories. I had never known them to censor comments that were legitimate, i.e. not spam or obscene, but for some reason, I saw my comment disappear, and then when I tried to respond to Richard Szulewski, I couldn't post.

    I have a few articles in the queue of Kendzior's I've been meaning to sit down and analyze for their flaws in thinking and bad faith, but I put it off until I have the time to really sit for hours and think and analyze line-by-line — I find most people who have swallowed her line whole need a very careful rebuttal line-by-line or they won't even think of resisting her — that is if they bother to pay attention in the first place. She is not well known in the fields of either anthropology for Eurasia or in the field of communications or Central Asian studies but she is aggressively making herself known by Twitter, the conference circuit and blogging — which pass for scholarship these days.

    Her article is a stupendous circle-jerk of thinking, as she links to her own piece in argument ("Stop Talking About Civil Society"); then she links to her fellow believers around Registan and Joshua Kucera, a like-minded comrade from EurasiaNet who turned in an awful piece back in 2011 in the New York Times that said "say and do nothing" about human rights because you can't influence Central Asia anyway. It really was pernicious, and seemed to serve the interests of those on the Hill and at State trying to get the Senate Appropriations committee to drop sanctions on Uzbekistan so they could get some modest military help which was a way of papering over a poor relationships and trying to keep the NDN going. An awful business, and Kucera even took a factoid handout from State later, that no one else got, and published it as evidence that State didn't think human rights progress was necessary really anyway, for exigency factors, even though before, they'd postured about progress as if it *was* necessary to convince reluctant senators concerned about human rights implications. Like I said, a bad business…

    But Kendzior's arguments are attractive to the do-nothing RealPolitik crowd, so it's worth thinking them through.

    Association for Human Rights in Central Asia proposes siging a petition against military aid. I signed it. Kendzior signed it too but she takes a pirouette to tell us she did it as a matter of private conscience, even if as a public intellectual and thinker, she doesn't believe in it. Way to show your hypocrisy, Sarah. And no need to bother.

    Says Kendzior:

    Analysts have long debated the ethical and strategic ramifications of providing Uzbekistan with military equipment – largely unidentified but allegedly non-lethal – in exchange for a transport route to neighbouring Afghanistan. But the heated discussion that has emerged has more to do with the moral anxiety of Westerners than with the rights or safety of Uzbeks. 

    What is intended as activism rooted in a critique of Western
    militarism actually amounts to an endorsement of Western effectiveness,
    because it rests on the belief that the West has leverage, that our
    opinion matters, that the fate of nations hinges on us. The hard truth
    is that in places like Uzbekistan, it does not.

    Well, that's supposed to mean that we ought not debate, because hard-assed authoritarians are going to be brutal anyway. Well, why not? We can move the slider up and down on this, surely. I will never forget a retiring general of the NDN who said at a conference that he told Petraeus and others that the US shouldn't have prostrated so much to Karimov. We shouldn't have. And neither should Kendzior. And that *is* what she does when she coldly and nastily tells every human rights activist they don't matter and therefore should do nothing, as if their advocacy is merely some bourgeois affectation of blinded Western imperialists who don't realize the evils of their own country or its clients (which is a line that plays nicely into the ALJ narrative).

    Yes, it's important to call out public figures' immorality when they get too clever by half. It is immoral.

    In fact, it *does* matter. Uzbekistan is avidly trying to keep us as friends so that it doesn't have to go into the arms of Russia and China only. It wants its independence from the former and doesn't want to become dependent on the latter. Oh, and Turkey, too. So they like dealing with the US in terms of business and military matters as it gives them some options and choices. We can exploit that to try to get concessions on political prisoners or terms of how we *are* going to prostrate ourselves which is *not that much*. We should always and everywhere call out the Uzbek regime's bluff — they claim they need help with terrorism and will be cooperate with the war effort in Afghanistan because of that need? Okay, be helpful then.

    But other than a few token political prisoner releases, what the US has gotten is only more expulsions of its own funded projects, and US-based non-governmental groups like Human Rights Watch have been expelled. So that prompts Kendzior to her hard-nosed, callused view of how to see this situation — which comes straight out of Karimov's vision of himself:

    And that is the point. Despite the changing relationship between the
    West and Uzbekistan, the brutality of the Karimov government has
    remained consistent, impervious to Western influence or Western demands.
    Uzbekistan's government will do what it wants regardless of how it
    hurts itself or others. There is no carrot and no stick, only cruel,
    cold dismissal.

    Well, yes and no. Lots of Uzbeks still want to come to the US to study — and do so and eventually they will grow up and some of them might have some influence on events in their country. Some of them got in political trouble even with very mild educational programs and were forced to remain here — Kendzior and Registan in fact adopted them. They openly discuss life after Karimov, who will not live forever. So cold or not, cruel or not, dismissal or not, water wears away the stone, exiles discuss, they interact with dissenters inside the country, alternatives are created, the US funds foreign broadcasting, support some NGOs abroad, provides aslyum for some fleeing — and an alternative political and civic space is made. Certainly more of a political space than would exist if we put Sarah Kendzior in charge of civil society, which she repudiates and says we should stop talking about.

    Citing herself, Kendzior discounts that any chaos is coming:

    The debate over military aid arrives among speculation that the
    departure of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 will leave Central
    Asia in chaos, an outcome predicted by several analysts. This argument assumes that the NATO presence played a significant role in achieving regional stability, a view I disputed in a recent article showing how Central Asian "peace" is structured on citizens' fear of their own governments.

    Well, except, she can't be sure. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition. And they didn't predict the Andijan uprising and massacre, the Arab Spring and crackdown, the big marches in Russia and crackdown, and so on. If we left it up to these armchair anthropologists that farm out their own surveys to others and don't visit the country to work (and maybe they can't), we wouldn't know anything about unrest in these societies and would be utterly prepared for various scenarios. Oh, I guess we do that a lot, then. But…You have to keep an open mind. Kendzior does not have one. She keeps hammering the same RealPolitik message home as if somebody's budget depends on it. And probably somebody's budget does, and I don't mean her university's.

    Kendzior believes ANY talk about possible terrorism or militarism and unrest are just ridiculous. That's insane! This is an area that *does* have some instances of terrorism, even if some are manufactured. There are something like 8,000 Muslim prisoners in jail. Many of them were wrongfully jailed, and that means their relatives are held down only by fear and intimidation — and that may not last forever, like it didn't last forever in Egypt where people were tortured. We have to care, and we have to develop ways of engaging the regime while in power, those people if they are released and come to power, and everyone else.

    She then claims that Akrimaya "didn't exist". But I've heard Uzbek exiles speak openly of its existence as a fact including some that took part in it — and by that they don't mean some terrorist operation like Al Qaeda, but a Muslim businessmen's society. Here's what I said on ALJ in case it is removed:

    It isn't so material to determine whether Akromiya is "real" or not, i.e. was it a fundamentalist Islamist group bent on terror. It was a group of Muslim businessmen who helped each other. And they went to break their fellow businessman out of jail because they thought his jailing on charges of corruption was unfair, and knowing the lack of due process in that country, that is likely. But then they killed policemen and took others as hostages and then human shields as they faced down government troops. So they committed violence, that's wrong, that's illegal, and the human rights groups protesting this massacre always seem to skip over that part way too lightly. Yes, there seemed to have been a lot of women and children who peacefully gathered in the square who were then mowed down by government troops. But government tanks and troops can rationalize their massive human rights violations when the incidents are started by gunmen doing a jail break and a shoot-out, you know?

    I think it's the right thing to do not to sell this government lethal weapons. We will not pry them loose from Russia or help them fight terrorism by doing that. Once troops are removed from Afghanistan, we should not be so craven to them. We should attempt to engage them with a series of incremental steps and if they reform or make concessions, adjust our behaviour accordingly.

    What's so awful about Kendzior's ideas is that she winds up with an unjustified quietism and endorsement of the status quo — the authoritarian regime about which we should do nothing because we have no leverage.

    ***

    I can only repeat what I've said before about why you have to keep a level head about terrorism and not just knock the Jamestown Foundation because they aren't in your tribe:

    But what happens when you mount academic theses that unrest can "never
    happen here" or that Islamic fundamentalism "can't happen" is that you
    are unprepared with policies when it does. If you've assured the world
    that there is no Hizb-ut-Tahrir problem whatsoever, forgetting even that
    there might be if the prison policy changes (and it must if we are to
    insist on our human rights ideals) — then when a country *does* grow
    more religious, even shy of the extremities of HuT, decision-makers are
    unprepared. If you've spent years telling everyone that Islamic
    fundamentalism in Tajikistan isn't really a problem any more and the
    civil war is over and the threat is exaggerated, then you have no
    framework to understand that pretty much all significant dissent in
    Tajikistan seems to take the form of Muslim activism, and then
    policy-makers may view what is normal and natural for a country as
    suddenly a threat. The very analysis that seeks to minimize unrest or
    religious revival in opposition to mythical promoters of these concepts
    then winds up fueling the hysteria they claimed to see in the first
    place.

    As I've said before, the US could do more to tighten up its act even within the circumscribed options it has with Uzbekistan — remember when Karimov threatened to shut down the NDN because the US gave a human rights award to an Uzbek activist?  Karimov is thinking not only about "after 2014" but his own succession. Public and private diplomacy on human rights can be more vigorous.

    Kendzior concludes by making it seem as if she is nuanced and thoughtful — although she's told everyone to stop talking about civil society, she's told everyone that it is pointless to sign petitions, and she's told everyone there is no terrorist threat — so it's all a sleight of hand and a propagandistic manipulation:

    Uzbekistan poses the tough question of what should be done about a
    country that does not respect international law or its own citizens.
    There are no easy answers, but one way to start is by acknowledging that
    the solution does not hinge on Western action, for good or for ill.

    Focusing on military aid addresses Western hypocrisy – a subject
    notable in its own right – but does little to address the everyday
    challenges Uzbek citizens face. As the issue of Western military aid
    brings renewed focus on Uzbekistan, we should make sure we do not
    neglect the quiet, more pervasive forms of violence, the routine
    brutality that takes place away from foreign eyes.

    ALJ eats up anything that talks about "Western hypocrisy" but "Western hypocrisy" is the least of the world's problems because it's dictated by the world's far worse problems: Pakistani intelligence support of the Taliban and related groups; the Taliban and its supporters itself; Al Qaeda; Assad in Syria; Bashir in Sudan and the ongoing state-sponsored civil war, essentially; Putin in Russia and the suppression of civil society there; China hacking the US and suppressing its minorities and extracting resources to grow stronger. Kendzior seldom waxes eloquent on the hypocrisy of any of these abusive forces.

    Indeed, the situation in part *does* depend on Western policy in support of internal actors. It has never depended on anything else. Nobody brought about a spring in Prague or Cairo by themselves; they had solidarity if nothing else, but more often somebody to help pay for printing presses, and today, circumvention software. It's a myopic, cynical and most of all immoral view (posing as amoral and pratical). There's nothing wrong with basing American foreign policy on morals.

    What's interesting to me more than my own censorship on this article are the people who manage to speak or who are "under moderation" and have to be clicked on now to see, such as Richard Szulewski (in case the post is removed, reprinting here):

    Whenever
    a person starts a supposedly serious article with the phrase…"the
    Association for Human Rights in Central Asia, a group comprised mainly
    of exiles from Uzbekistan,"

    It shows that further reading is not necessary.

    Ms. Kendzior…we get it. As a recent Anthropology PHD your insights
    are INCREDIBLY valuable to world affairs. You completely understand
    central Asian politics and the intricacies of Geo-politics…

    Or it could be that you hate America and are willing to use this
    incredibly valuable loudspeaker called AJE to bash anything pro-western.

    AKROMIYA is real. YOU have debunked nothing and claims otherwise
    shows your sheer hubris. My experience in the nation directly
    contradicts your claims and will be happy to show you proof of the same.
    Uzbekistan is a nation struggling to find itself after decades under
    the Soviet thumb. Troubles? Yes. Evil? No.

    And you left a quote out M'am…"The threat may not be imminent, but
    extending security assistance to the Central Asian states is
    justifiable, Blake maintained."

    Please Ma'm…stop your attempts at political analysis. You are embarrassing yourself.