• Save Uzbek Journalist Dilmurod Sayyid, Ill in Prison

    Dilmurod

    Dilmurod Sayyid. Photo via Uznews.net

    I just want to draw everyone's attention to the urgent case of Dilmurod Sayyid, an Uzbek journalist who exposed corruption in agribusiness in Uzbekistan and has been a political prisoner for many years. Committee to Protect Journalists has included him in their list of reporters jailed for their work.

    I just saw on Twitteran appeal in Uzbek on the BBC World Service for Uzbekistan posted by Khayrullo Fayz (@xayrullofayz), an Uzbek journalist, who summarized it for me in a few lines in Russian.

    The original Uzbek language story is here. Perhaps someone who reads Uzbek can supply more detail.

    Khayrullo did give me a summary of a few lines in Russian.

    As far as I understand, Sayyid's brother just visited him recently and found that he has lost 55 kilograms. He had already ill with tuberculosis. He has lost hope of getting out of prison.

    As some may know, several years ago Dilmurod suffered the tragic loss of his wife and small daughter when they were killed in a car accident on their way to visit him.  He was not allowed to attend the funeral. Dilmurod was sentenced in 2009 to 12.5 years in prison on charges said by human rights monitors to be fabricated.

    The US and other Western governments do work quietly to get prisoners of conscience released in Uzbekistan and has had some success, even recently. So I hope some attention can get Dilmurod's name put forward and appeals going out on his behalf ASAP.

    P.S. I've just found an English-language summary of the story here.

    – In December, I was able to see my brother in a prison in Karshi . I was given a date for four hours. In October, he had his chest x-rayed, and the doctors said that the results came out good. Therefore, after the Sangorod he was not returned to the colony for tuberculosis patients in Navoi, but was transferred to a labor colony in Karshi. During the last meeting I prepared some mean, we sat and talked. But he ate almost nothing. Brother was very thin, weighs about 55-56 kilograms, and has become so small, his hair all white. Dilmurod said that he was  working in the colony, perhaps he did not want to upset me and said that he was not given the hard work, – says Obid Saidov.

    Note the difference between lost 55 kg and weighs 55 kg. This should be clarified but the bottom line is that he is very sick and has lost a lot of weight.

     

  • Uzbekistan’s Delegate Pounds the Table at the UN — Denies Ample Evidence of Torture

    P de la Fuente Uzbek protesters

    Elena Urlayeva and Abdujalil Boymatov call for resignation of Karimov on Nov. 7, 2010. Photo by p de la Fuentes.

    The extraordinary scandals and dramas in the presidential palace and halls of the national security ministry in Uzbekistan lately seem almost larger than life. There are lurid tales of voices raised as the First Daughter wages a war against her sister and fights for a cousin arrested by the secret police, flinging ashtrays and slapping people — all leading to the aging and weakened president weeping in the garden.

    But all that is hard to confirm because it's hear-say and gossip, although the Christian Science Monitor and other mainstream newspapers are reporting some of it.

    Meanwhile, on a lesser stage at a UN panel, you could see the dramas actually playing out, with shouting and fists banging on the table.

    Long-time UN watchers are calling it the most incredible thing they've ever seen — well, none of them are old enough to remember Khrushchev banging his shoe on the table at the UN Security Council.

    The normally smooth-tongued and placid Akmal Saidov, chairman of the official National Human Rights Center, was literally shouting and pounding the table at a recent session of the UN's Committee Against Torture, the body charged with assessing countries' compliance with the Convention Against Torture.

    Uzbekistan is notorious for torture in its prisons and other facilities of incarceration, and also notorious for backing and filling and double-talking its way out of pressure from the international community. Tashkent is infamous for perpetuating old Soviet methods; when the International Committee of the Red Cross came to visit a prisoner who had filed complaints of torture, the wardens simply substituted the real prisoner with a prompted fake who said everything was fine. Relatives were able to uncover the deception, and eventually this fraud and other difficulties — like not being able to obtain conditions usually required by the Red Cross for visiting prisoners privately — led the ICRC finally to withdraw from Uzbekistan.

    If you have patience to work with a laggy video and know Russian — or even if you don't — you can get a gander at all this emotional defensiveness here.

    Although this is a bit simplified, Steve Swerdlow of Human Rights Watch was live-tweeting the session which will give you the flavour. The UN, particularly under pressure from Russia, China and other major-league human rights abusers is always trying to take away NGO privileges at the sessions, but cell phones, lap-tops and i-Pads are allowed in the session, mainly because the UN diplomats and experts refuse to do without them.

    RFE/RL also covered the story of the yelling and fist-banging.

    Saidov accused committee members of using outdated information.

    "You also refer to 'systematic torture' — an antiquated, hackneyed expression that has long been thrown in our faces," he said. "There is no such phrase as 'systematic torture' in international law. That's not my conclusion, but that of the former UN special rapporteur on torture, Manfred Nowak."

    After Saidov's angry outburst, Felice Gaer, vice chairperson of the UN committee and the country rapporteur for Uzbekistan, said the committee dealt only with the facts. She recalled the saying, "If you can't cite the facts, you cite the law, and if you can't cite the law, you bang the table," and said that's what the committee had witnessed at the review.

    The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights produced a rather sanitized version of the session, without the histrionics, but everyone knows they were there.

    There were some other highlights — CAT has repeatedly asked for what was being done in terms of redress for families of victims of the Andijan events, the massacre by Uzbek troops in 2005 of hundreds of civilians who came out on the public squares to demonstrate, following a jailbreak by armed opposition, the murder of several policemen, and the taking of hostages. (Human rights NGOs tend to emphasize the first part of that sentence and not mention or minimize the second part, but the two have to be mentioned together — violence did beget violence.) Saidov's answer: "Andijan is a closed subject for Uzbekistan. It's over." Once again, he claimed that the fact that Human Rights Watch could send observers to the trials of some of the people in the Andijan case was somehow the same thing as providing a full and frank report and permitting impartial investigators. It was not.

    Another creepy note was sounded when the Chinese member of CAT — this is the UN, and any country can run for elections and be voted into these bodies — praised Uzbekistan for "making so much progress" — why, it already had drafted several "national plans of action" — which is the usual sop to UN requirements — avidly encouraged by the UN bureaucracy — to try to do something about bad human rights records.

    Saidov responded: “We’re studying the Chinese experience” and “Your experience is highly valued by us.”

    Ugh. Nobody wants to think about what it means in real terms when China buys up half the gas and mineral companies and such in Central Asia. Well, that's what it means.

    The official summary record also failed to mention all the names of the cases — representing every issue from absence of lawyers to coerced confessions from torture to unjust imprisonment, etc.  brought to Uzbekistan's attention, which I obtained:

    1st day

    Ruhiddin Komilov, Rustam Tyuleganov and Bakhrom Abdurakhmanov

    Vahit Gunes

    Solijon Abdurakhmanov

    Turaboi Juraboev

    Sergei Naumov

    Zahid Umataliev

    Dilmurod Saidov

    Azam Turgunov

    Bobomurad Razzakov

    Gaibullo Djalilov

    Rasul Khudoynazarov

    Norboy Kholjigitov

    Yusuf Jumaev

    Elena Urlayeva

    Tatiana Dovlatova

    Azam Formonov

    Rayhon, Khosiyat, and Nargiza Soatova

    Gulnaza Yuldaseva

    Mehrinisso and Zulhumor Hamdamova

    Katum Ortikov

    Mutabar Tajibaeva

    2nd day

    Erkin Musaev

    HRDefenders :

    Nosim Isakov

    Ganihom Mamatkhanov

    Chuyan Mamatkulov

    Zafarjon Rahimov

    Nematjon Siddikov

    Batyrbek Eshkuziev

    Ruhiddin Fahruddinov

    Hayrullo Hamidov

    Bahrom Ibragimov

    Murod Juraev

    Davron Kabilov

    Matluba Karimova

    Samandar Kukanov

    Gayrat Mehiboev

    Rusam Usmanov

    Rashanbek Vafoev

    Akram Yuldashev

    The Uzbek delegation didn't have any answers, but apparently they may provide them in writing later.

    Kyrgyzstan will be reviewed November 11th and 12th at the UN CAT.

     

  • Uzbek Teachers Tell Students What to Say to ILO Inspectors

    Karakalpakstan2- 5th grade

    Fifth-grader in Karalpakstan, Uzbekistan picking cotton. Photo by Uzbek-German Forum.

    The Cotton Coalition (where I worked as a web editor for two years) regrettably pulled their punches when it came to the ill-advised ILO mission to Uzbekistan this year.

    The mission shouldn't have gone, because they couldn't get all the conditions they needed to do a proper independent monitoring without interference. They then participate in the sealing of a bad situation instead of maintaining standards.

    As I pointed out, no human rights groups should have endorsed this and should have loudly and forcefully condemned it.

    That's what you do when you're an NGO and not a government.

    To reiterate:

    Yet, the Cotton Campaign (funded by the Soros Foundations, although EurasiaNet, also funded by the Soros Foundations doesn't tell you that) cautiously welcomed this rigged "monitoring" visit.

    Human Rights Watch signed their cautious welcome, yet their Uzbek researcher still felt called upon to object to the conditions:

    Campaigners are concerned that the observers will not gain unfettered access to the cotton fields. “It is essential that monitoring teams be comprised only of independent observers and not include any Uzbek officials,” Steve Swerdlow, Central Asia Researcher at New York-based Human Rights Watch, told EurasiaNet.org.

    Yet surely HRW knows that it's too late to insist on conditions when the mission is already deployed and the bad terms already set. While HRW received $100 million from the Soros Foundations to establish them as the leading human rights group in the world, they should have long ago told the Soros strategists that they were withdrawing from the Cotton Campaign because it was ineffective and wishy-washy when it needed to be strong.

    I don't understand how it is that the Cotton Campaign couldn't keep its distance from both State and the ILO on this, but I think it has to do with a variety of factors:

    o the wish to stay "engaged" — these post-Soviet authoritarians are masters at guilt-tripping liberals into staying involved with them for fear that they are "missing opportunities" or "moving the goal-posts" or "never being able to say yes". The fact is, the only things these regimes understand is a consistent "no," pressure, and the refusal to legitimize

    o possible promises from State that they'd either move Uzbekistan down to tier 3 on the trafficking report, or some other gesture — I've been told by officials myself that "after 2014, things will get better" because the US won't be under pressure to maintain the NDN;

    o former State Department officials who have revolved into Soros or Human Rights Watch or other groups who feel beholden to their old comrades and/or a perspective that says you must "stay engaged"; Tom Malinowski, the former advocacy director of Human Rights Watch, a former Clinton Administration official and great engager of Russia and the post-Soviet countries, is now Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor; HRW received $100 million from the Soros Foundations;

    o some members of the coalition, i.e. in the apparels industry, who don't want to appear too radical.

    Well, all of these issues are endemic to any coalition that ranges from radical to conservative on an issue. There are reasons to keep coalitions like this going, but individual members should feel they can step out and criticize Uzbekistan when they need to.

    Today the Chronicle of Forced Labor translated a broadcast from Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe's Uzbekistan service, Radio Ozodlik:  International Monitors are still in Uzbekistan:

    International Monitors are still in Uzbekistan: Authorities are instructing students what to say to them

    23.10.2013

    A father whose child studies at Yangier Construction and Communal Services Vocational high school in Syrdarya region, called Radio Liberty. After requesting anonymity, he reported on a meeting between the international monitors and students of his child’s high school on October 22.

    Prior to the meeting, all the first-year students (ages 15-16), who recently returned from one month picking cotton, received special training on what to say to the visitors and were thoroughly coached.

    "My daughter told me that her teacher told them that a commission is coming to visit, so they need to teach the students what to say to the commission. The director himself came and taught the students what to answer if they are asked questions. While in the cotton fields, these children were taught what to say to anyone who asked. Back at the school, they were taught to say that they didn't go to pick cotton, that they studied, that their facilities are great and warm and they don't have any difficulties," said the father.

    On October 22 a commission accompanied by government officials arrived to meet with students and schoolchildren in the Syrdarya region. Residents assume that the commission members were the international monitors, because since September these international observers have been monitoring across the country and researching the situation with child labour and forced labour.

    Despite efforts by officials in Tashkent to keep children under the age of 18 from participating in cotton harvesting, the many fatal incidents involving students and schoolchildren who were forced to pick cotton is reflecting the real situation. Particularly, on October21, 16-year old Yuldoshev Erkaboy died. He had been forced to go to pick cotton and stay in Galaba village, Urganch district of Khorezm region.

    It's highly troubling that so many deaths have occurred this year at a time when the government claims it is no longer using young children and international monitors are coming on the scene. That suggests a condition of pressure and disintegration. I wish the international community had more access. It doesn't and hasn't really sufficiently tried to get it.

     

     

  • WikiLeaks Propaganda Stunt “Mediastan” Smears, Endangers Local Central Asian Journalists

    Pressure
    WikiLeaks barged into offices all over Central Asia, pressuring independent journalists like these reporters at the highly-respected Asia Plus to instantly sign agreements on WikiLeaks' terms to publish US cables about their country. Here Marat Mamadshoev and a colleague are being told to sign the agreement immediately, but decline.
     

    I'm sickened by Mediastan, the latest propaganda piece by anarchist impresario Julian Assange.

    This is my quick take upon first view of this video (so sorry if there are mistakes or names missing, they will be fixed). It's available for rent ($2.99) or pay $7.00 plus on Vimeo. Naturally, I'm unhappy that I had to give a dime to WL, which I oppose on principle — and I have to wonder how it is that Paypal could agree to accept these payments when it has blocked payments directly from WikiLeaks (and I plan to raise this issue with both Vimeo and PayPal).

    This piece of vile stuff is supposed to be Assange's attempt to provide an "antidote" to a movie about him coming out in theaters October 18 which he doesn't like called The Fifth Estate (it's too critical) which he trying to kill off in various ways.

    Perhaps he's counting on the fact that most people don't know anything about Central Asia, and will merely be impressed that he and his merry band of hacksters caroming around the perilous but picturesque mountain roads of Central Asia — complete with Soviet-style policeman stopping and searching traffic, tunnels under repair until who knows when, and lots of sheep blocking the road — are the coolest of cypherphunk hipsters going on a " journalism" trip through dangerous territory.

    Except it's not at all that. What this journey consists of is a bunch of people from the region whose first names only are given within the film (but see the credits below), and the discredited journalist Johannes Wahlstrom, son of the notorious antisemite and provocateur Israel Shamir. Discredited — because of the tendentious way he has covered Israel-Palestine issues, and disgraced because he is accused of falsifying quotes and of antisemitism.)

    So an unintended bonus is that with Wahlstrom narrating most of the film — when the Great One Himself isn't butting in and pontificating — is that WikiLeaks cannot claim anymore that Shamir and Son don't have anything to do with them and don't represent them. They most surely do, as this film proves.

    Johannes is a Russian speaker because he likely grew up in Russia or at least speaking Russian with his father — who has played a sordid role in the Snowden affair, too, about which you can read on my other blog, Minding Russia. But he and the other handlers or minders or whoever the hell they are really have no sense of this region, whatever their Russian language ability, and burst in aggressively — and disgustingly — to try to strong-arm local news media in dire straits in Central Asia, where there is a huge list of murdered, jailed, disappeared and beaten journalists, into publishing WikiLeaks cables.

    Another bonus is that one of the Russian-speaking journalists on the tour admits openly that he fabricated stories at his job (supposedly because he felt himself to be pressured to do so by  his bosses and their need to sell newspapers) and then was ultimately fired. This is just about the level of journalistic quality we can expect throughout this film.

    (The reason I mixed up Wahlstrom and this Russian in an earlier version of this blog, since corrected is because both are accused of fabrications; the Russian admits it in the film, Wahlstrom denies it. And while some WikiLeaks operative @Troushers is accusing me of "lying" here in my summary of the dialogue of this Russian journalist, I stand by it — indeed he openly admits he fabricated letters and indeed the implication is that he was pressured by his boss, who needed to sell papers even if he didn't say literally that phrase — Internet kids are so literalist. The  obvious reality is, the theme throughout the entire film is that editors and journalists in mainstream media only do things to sell newspapers — i.e. the obvious point of the snarky portrayal of Bill Keller and Sulzberger talking about traffic for a column of Bill's "half supportive" of Obama. Here's the script verbatim from Dmitry Velikovsky, from Russkiy Reporter, who has been active in covering Manning's trial in the past. Russkiy Reporter also sponsored the showing of the film in Moscow.

    Velikovsky: I began with some funny study. I was obliged to edit the column "letters of readers". But the problem was that there were absolutely no letters to edit. But the column should be published twice a day. And so I was obliged to to invent those letters me myself. And I just invented a lot of them.

    Wahlstrom: did you get some, any letters at all from real readers?

    Velikovsky: Yes we got some maybe three, four or five in two months but they were all containing some critics.

    Wahlstrom: but these letters you didn't publish.

    Velikovsky: I wanted to publish those letters in the factual content of the newspaper because I found it rather important to have some kind of self criticism. But our marketing department had no self criticism and they forbid me to publish it. So i invented letters about problems of veterans, problems of pensioners, problems of no matter whom. So that's how I became a journalist.

    Cue tinkly music…

    Astoundingly, this aggressive, beligerent crew have no sense of themselves in this film, so imbued are they with their self-righteousness, even as they beam in Julian Assange on Skype who instructs the locals how they are to treat this material.

    It's very clear WikiLeaks has absolutely no interest in the substance of the local stories, they just want to collect partners — or conversely, shame those potential partners who refuse to deal with them for various reasons by making them look like they are boot-licking lackeys of the United States.

    They tape phone conversations with people that are rather sensitive — like a journalist in danger discussing whether he should publish a story about somebody who wants to run a coup in Tajikistan (!) — and we have no idea if the people involved were informed that these calls would be taped — and included in the film.

    The single most damaging aspect I've seen in this agitprop trash is that the utterly unsupported claim is made that the local press are paid by the US Embassy to print flattering things about the US in order to get the leaders and publics of these countries to bend over while the US uses them as a launching pad and staging area for their war in Afghanistan.

    The WikiLeaks people are too ignorant and blinded by their anti-American ideology to understand that a) the US has no need for this because these countries have cooperated anyway b) these tyrants have their own interests in playing off the US against Russia and China c) it doesn't matter as the US is  pulling out of Afghanistan next year anyway.

    Now, I write as someone who for six years worked at EurasiaNet and Open Society Foundation and wrote critically about the US role in Central Asia, particularly about the severe human rights and humanitarian issues — about which the US government was oftne silent — and the issues around the Northern Distribution Network, the supply path to Afghanistan from Russia which enabled the US to bring non-lethal cargo to NATO troops.

    I probably wrote more than anybody on the WikiLeaks cables in Turkmenistan, strategically located between Iran and Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries with heavy US involvement, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. You can search for all these articles and those of my colleagues here eurasianet.org

    I also worked in the past as a free-lancer for RFE/RL ("(Un)Civil Society" and "Media Matters") and never experienced any censorship — I wrote and published directly to the site. I recall only instances when care was taken in covering mass demonstrations once in Ukraine to make sure that the article didn't incite people — as RFE/RL has a history of being charged with causing uprisings, i.e. in the Hungarian revolution and invasion by Soviet troops. RFE/RL is funded by Congress, but it doesn't have overlords hanging over you as you write — there is far more independent coverage there than anything you'd see at RT.com, the Kremlin-sponsored propaganda outlet or Al Jazeera.

    I have no relationship whatsoever to the US government, so I am certainly qualified to say that this film is an unfair hatchet job on people in harm's way — oh, so typical of WikiLeaks.

    The film opens with the WikiLeaks crew rolling through the mountains with Mehrabanb Fazrollah of Pyandj, Tajikistan, born 18 October 1962, in the back seat of the car telling his story. He was held five years in Guantanamo about which you can read some here.

    Through a series of astoundingly leading questions, broad innuendos or outright promptings, the WL gang incites Fazrollah into saying he really knew nothing of any military significance, and his jailing was all for nothing, and boy is he mad. I don't know anything of his case except what I've read in the papers, but the duplicitious smiles and repeating of what foreigners want to hear are very old stories to me from having traveled in this region (I haven't ever been in Tajikistan but I've spent years travelling to Russia and other countries and interviewing Tajiks outside of Tajikistan).

    Assange claims bitterly that this poor fellow spent five years ""to find out about a couple of fucking refugees in Tajikistan".

    Actually, that's not even what the cable said or even what the man in the film says. They said there were 100,000 refugees. This is relevant of course regarding the Northern Alliance and the Tajiks in Afghanistan. The fellow is charged with membership in the Islamic Movement of Tajikistan (IMT) allied with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a group on the American list of terrorist organizations.

    Sorry, but this is not nothing, these are real terrorism movements, even if supposedly in decline (like, you know, Al Shabaab was in decline and chased out of their stronghold when they hit Westgate Mall in Kenya?)

    You would never know from Assange's sneers that this is a country that was in a civil war for years, that it had the highest number of journalists murdered — some 50, nearly as many as Algeria, also in a civil war at the time, that these journalists were killed by Islamists because they were secular or visa versa because they were not approved Muslims killed by state security. The war is a complicated one but to pretend that terrorism and war isn't a factor here — right next to Afghanistan — is absurd.

    This is of course the game, too, of the International Relations Realist school in Washington and elsewhere, who minimize terrorism and laugh it away as a fantasy of Pentagon planners. But the reality is that both are true — real terrorist acts have occurred here and there are in fact real Islamists pressuring secular society including press, and there are also fake terrorists that the oppressive government thinks up to keep itself in power. And you know something? I surely do not trust Julian Assange and his crew of losers to tell the difference.

    I will never forget in my life the terrified face of a Tajik journalist  who had been receiving death threats that I helped rescue from Tajikistan in the 1990s — and it was a brave man going the extra mile inside the US Embassy actually that got him and his family out of there.

    In the film, after reading some cables on Gitmo — and as I said, the cases may be innocent, but the WL goons are hardly the judge, and there are real complex problems of terrorism and pressure on secularism in these countries — Assange and Wahlstrom sit and guffaw about a line in a memo they've found about Bildt getting in touch with Karl Rove instead of really trying to understand the complexities of the region They find this such a smoking gun and so "evil" that they roar for minutes, but we don't get the joke.

    The translator asks outrageously leading questions and they all laughed and carried on and made it clear they sympathized with the Tajik taken from the battlefield from Gitmo and don't interview him impartially or critically at all. In the same way the pick up a memo from someone named Michael Owens, and start roaring about the US "empire of the 21st century" — which is of course a rather lack-luster claim these days — some empire of the 21st century which they are just now leaving, eh?

    Then they read from cables — only partially — with a "scene-setter" — talking about how the Tajiks have "unfailingly" allowed their overflights, which is all they really wanted from them. They then purport to read from a cable implying that these "imperialist Americans" in Dushanbe want to "make the local media more pro-American" and will first plant positive stories in the Russian media, then pay the local media to reprint them in the local  press.

    They don't actually cite from any document or give any source, and it isn't in any known cable from the WikiLeaks Cablegate already published that the US Embassy engages in this practice.

    So without anything to bolster this claim, WikiLeaks smears gazeta.ru, Interfax, and Ekho Moskvy, claiming that they've somehow engaged in this practice.

    It really is an outright lie. I have read the Russian-language press in this region for years. They are critical of the US and there aren't these glowing planted pieces they imagine. And the US doesn't need to engage in such a silly, crude practice.

    First of all, CENTCOM, the US military command for the region of Central Asia, has its own official news service, but more to the point, it has its own supported English- and Russian-language Internet news service everyone knows they are behind as they tell you, that it uses to put stories for the local media  to pick up – where they are identified as such and sourced from this page, not hidden under bylines or mastheads from the indigenous media.

    Secondly, none of these papers in the region have very big readerships — they don't have the capacity. We are talking about newspapers with 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 possibly at the most, but more at the low end. It's just not a way to reach people. Internet penetration is very low in some of the countries — it's about 60% in Russia but drops down sharply as you go East.

    The US already has Voice of America as an outlet to cover the perspectives of the US, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty which serves to enhance or enable struggling local media — they have open partnerships with some local stations, and because they are far more independent than the official media of these authoritarian states, they have more credibility. To be sure, RFE/RL are not going to be radically antithetical to the foreign policy of the United States, any more than the BBC or Al Jazeera or RT.com. But unlike Al Jazeera and RT.com, RFE/RL really tries to cover critical local news without fear or favour, and proof of that is just how many journalists have been arrested, jailed or expelled over the decades. The US government doesn't need to crudely pay somebody to hide behind, in other words. But these, too, don't have a huge audience outside the intelligentsia in the big cities.

    The fact is, WikiLeaks has not produced proof of this disreputable claim, because they've cited one cable only partially where it sounds like a proposal that one doesn't know was fulfilled, and in citing another cable, in Kyrgyzstan, it appears that the Kyrgyz foreign minister presents this idea, and that it doesn't come from the Americans.

    To be sure, paid-for press and infomercials and advertorials are rampant in this region in the official and unofficial press. But to claim that these brave independent outlets take payments to portray te US nicely is just an outright smear for which there isn't an iota of proof. It puts these brave people in danger to suggest it.


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  • Will the CSTO Be Used to Put down Internal Unrest in Central Asia?

    CSTO meeting 2010
    August 20, 2010. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko(left) , Kyrgyz President
    Roza Otunbayeva, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Armenian
    President Serge Sarkisian at unofficial summit of the leaders of the
    CSTO member states in Yerevan, Armenia © PanARMENIAN Photo / Davit
    Hakobyan

    This was the question addressed by Yulia Nikitina of MGIMO (the Moscow State Institute of International Relations) during her policy memo presentation and discussion at the annual two-day PONARS conference.

    Because I asked it.

    Her talk was actually about "How the CSTO Can (and Cannot) Help NATO" –  given the 2014 withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan. "Afghanistan is on its way to becoming a missed opportunity for NATO-CSTO cooperation," she said — and she wasn't really delving into the nature of the CSTO per se and why NATO may not wish this cooperation.

    But naturally, cooperation does hinge on the nature of the CSTO and its intentions.

    Nikitina's talk came just as a summit of the CSTO was completed, and a statement was released that the security group did not plan to add more troops to Tajikistan, but planned to help Tajikistan "strengthen its border" in light of 2014.

    To put this in perspective, think of 6,000 Russian troops already in Tajikistan, considerable wrangling still over how much Russia will pay Tajikistan for its base there and other arrangements, and a border more than 1,000 kilometers long. 

    The numbers of troops available in the CSTO — which Uzbekistan has not joined — is not officially released, but here's what Nikitina has to say: 

    In 2012, hard security issues disappeared from the agenda of potential CSTO-NATO cooperation. They were replaced by an emphasis on conflict resolution and crisis management, to which in 2013 peacekeeping was added. But what specifically can the CSTO offer in the fields of crisis management and peacekeeping?

    The CSTO has four types of collective forces. These include two regional groups of military forces (Russia-Belarus and Russia-Armenia), prepared to react to external military aggression; a 4,000-strong Collective Rapid Deployment Force for Central Asia; a 20,000-strong Collective Rapid Reaction Force (both of which have been designed to react to crises short of interstate conflicts); and collective peacekeeping forces, including about 3,500 soldiers and military officers and more than 800 civilian police officers (exact figures for all types of forces are not publicly available).

    So the last "collective peace-keeping forces" which isn't the same thing as the Collective Rapid Deployment Force, has 4,300 troops, but roughtly a fifth of them are civilian police officers. Interesting.

    Basically, my question was this (with some explanation in parentheses):

    In 2010, during the pogroms in southern Kyrgyzstan in Osh and Jalalabad, then-acting President Otunbayeva reportedly asked the CSTO to come in and help restore order. (At least 400 people were killed in these ethnic riots, thousands injured, and hundreds of thousands displaced, many temporarily to neighbouring Uzbekistan.)

    All along before then, the CSTO said they were not designed to handle internal unrest, and that was not their purpose, but they were asked anyway, and we know there were emergency meetings about this question in Kyrgyzstan.

    I had understood from talking to some diplomats that Uzbekistan opposed having the CSTO deployed in its "back yard" so to speak (as they disliked the encroachment of what they saw as a Russian-dominated entity – and that's why they refuse to join it – in a neighbour that already had several Russian bases and at that time the US base as well in Manas.)

    So the CSTO was not deployed in Kyrgyzstan (and I could add that the effort to get some 50 police from the OSCE countries to deploy for "technical assistance" to the Kyrgyz authorities was also pretty much demolished because the all-powerful mayor of Osh did not want foreign meddling and Bishkek did not have control  over him).

    In any event, after these tragic events, this question was further discussed and in due course, you heard CSTO head Borduzhya and even Foreign Minister Lavrov speak of adding the competency to address mass unrest to the tasks of the CSTO.

    Will they? I also asked if these troops could be deployed in Tajikistan, where an armed
    group was involved in clashes with law enforcement in which 30 or more
    were killed last year.

    Likely there are others more knowledgeable about the details but I think it's good to ask Russians directly about this because they don't seem to want to define either what "extremism" is or what "unrest" is or anything about this.

    I expected, since there was a news story out in Izvestiya, that this would get a "normal" answer, much like the last paragraph of this article, which reflected the official view:

    Vladimir Putin also proposed using the CSTO forces in the capacity of peace-keeping forces.

    This was first discussed after June 2010, during the period of inter-ethnic clashes in Kyrgyzstan, when CSTO forces could not interfere in the conflict due to the absence of legal mechanisms.

    Of course, peace-keeping and unrest-stopping are really different things as the UN endlessly learns to its chagrin — but I thought I'd ask.

    That Izvestiya piece made it sound like it was a mere absence of legal mechanisms, although we knew it was both an absence of political will (on Russia's part) and an unwillingness to have deployment encroaching sovereignty on others' part.

    In any event, Nikitina replied with that tone of prickly, moral-equivalency high dudgeon that seems to characterize so many interactions with the official Russian intelligentsia these days.

    She said she often got this sort of question and "just couldn't understand it". After all, no one expected NATO to go to the south of France in 2005, she noted tartly. You can't just have military alliances going hither and yon, and so on.

    It wasn't the sort of format where I could object that NATO wasn't invited to the south of France, and 400 people weren't killed in the south of France, and half a million didn't flee over the border, either.

    In any event, she said she didn't know about Uzbekistan objecting, but in fact, she said, Belarus objected. (I had never heard that before).

    Belarus said that it would be hard to tell the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks apart, Nikitina noted. I would like to think that what Belarus meant by this was not that "all Central Asians look alike" but that civilians and marauders would be hard to tell apart.

    Of course, you could start just by separating, oh, the men riding around in police or army vehicles that mysteriously seemed to become available to them, wielding guns also mysteriously obtained, and stop them from going into places with women in scarves carrying young children and fleeing in panic. That should be fairly easy to "tell apart". In any event, urban hand-to-hand combat is a difficult setting and I'm not going to tell the military or police their business. I really don't know if Russian-led troops swooping into Osh might have made a difference — especially if they didn't have a robust Chapter 7 equivalent sort of mandate to actually battle the pogromshchiki. I can't imagine that the attitude toward Russian-led forces would be intrinsically welcoming, either, although Otunbayeva, herself educated in Moscow, reportedly did ask.

    In any event, I also asked Nikitina if 4000 troops was enough to do the job. She didn't answer. The thrust of what she replied — and I await the videotape — was that while response to disorders and/or extremist attacks was now in the remit of the CSTO, it was mainly about inter-state interactions.

    She also stressed that the involvement of the CSTO in a domestic matter could only be at the invitation of the country itself.

    I do think we are not back to a Warsaw Pact type of situation where the need to protect peace-loving fraternal socialist peoples serve as an excuse to do something like invade Czechoslovakia.

    Of course, what we don't know is what would happen if there was a situation such as has occurred in Kyrgyzstan, where mobs end up toppling corrupt governments, sometimes it seems with some very skilled help (those sharpshooters you can see in some videos skilfully hiding behind trees and moving to scale fences didn't get those bazookas out of a tulip bed).

    i.e. if Russian special forces stealthily took down a government, mixing in with mobs, and then whistled for the CSTO to put down any one objecting.

    Or a scenario like in Moscow itself in August 1991, where one government leader is spirited far away and kept under house arrest, and an illegitimate coup plotters' committee appears, and then another government leader comes on tanks and defeats the coup plot but deposes the leader taken into exile. See, any one of those figures could be whistling for a CSTO. Then what? Which are the fraternal peace-loving peoples?

    Nikitina seemed to indicate that invitations for such deployment might only be a remote possibility.

    There are other troubles — Uzbekistan isn't in the CSTO, and Nazarbayev, head of Kazakhstan didn't come to the summit, even though he wasn't sick and ended up having meetings at home and then going to Monaco. Monaco?! What's that about? "I could have come and chatted with all of you about what we're going to do when hordes of terrorists come pouring over the Afghan border into our countries and destabilize us in 2014, but instead, I chose to go speak to the Prince."

    Says Izvestiya:

    President Nazarbayev’s presence was important; after all the foundation for the military component of the CSTO is the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces (CRRF). These are the divisions that will actively participate in various operations. For now, the lion’s share of the CRRF are made up of Russian and Kazakh soldiers.

     All of this requires further watching and research. Where have there been Russian "peace-keepers"? Well, in Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia.

    How would the CSTO peace-keep? Like ECOWAS or the African Union?

    Thinking of all the cases of violent unrest in Central Asia in the last 20 years, Andijan stands out as the worst or among the worst — and Uzbekistan is not part of the reaction force or the peace-keeping force (I'd love to know more about how they differ). Kyrgyzstan is part of the CSTO, but there is already this precedent where it wasn't deployed because of objections and difficulties.

    So where would the CSTO be deployed? Tajikistan?

     
    CSTO Summit PanArmenian

    CSTO summit 2010, photo by PanARMENIAN.

  • Youtube Feed of Uzbek Suspect Fazliddin Kurbanov — Hate for Russians, Americans, Love for Jihad, Explosives, and Power Rangers

    Boise da id. Email lingiz ishlayaptimi

     Fazliddin Kurbanov commented and liked 2 months ago

    I love idaho and exactly boise and eagle. This is. A wonderful place on the world. Very niat. Welcome. Idaho

    Moving to Idaho

    ourotherplanet by ourotherplanet • 3,232 views

    Fazliddin Kurbanov and 15 others liked 11 months ago

    Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)

    deseagle42 by deseagle42 • 10,593 views

    http://alemarah-iea.com/eng… Real news about Afghanistan

    bbc aljazeera Taliban طالبان Afghanistan افغانستان nuristan نورستان islam terrorism…

    As it happens, there are quite a few people named "Fazliddin Kurbanov" in the world. But as this particular Fazliddin Kurbanov has a very heavily used Youtube account with hundreds of videos in Russian and Uzbek about jihad (that would be much harder for him to do in Uzbekistan itself, where Youtube is blocked), and as he mentions Boise in a comment on another person's Youtube account, and even writes in English "I love Idaho" four months ago — it seems like it is the same person as the suspect. How many Uzbeks with this particular name could there be in Idaho?

    Even if it is not, but some other would-be jihadist, it deserves a close study because it seems to be an anatomy of the "self-radicalizing" jihadist — the Youtubizing would-be terrorist who learns to hate from agitprop videos made in the Russian language by…whoever it is makes these youtubes in Russian (we know the Russian government itself funds iran.ru, so I wonder if the Russian intelligence services also run the youtube jihadist business too in order to annoy the West).

    Watch as he lurches from hating Russians and loving Idaho to hating American soldiers and then studying how to make bombs…

    I'm going to reject in advance any claim that analyzing the social media of suspects — whether it turns out to be right or wrong — is somehow an illegitimate or immoral activity. If you make a public account on social media and put comments and content on it, sorry, but other members of the public will comment on your content, especially if you become a suspect in a crime. If it's not you, but your content draws critical comment — too bad. Don't go on Youtube then if you don't like being discussed. There was far, far too much net-nannying around the Boston marathon bombing suspects, with the liberal and leftist media being the worst at silencing critical speculation and debate about Islamists and anarchists, and then turning around and indulging it in themselves with speculation about the right-wing extremists.

    I have no confirmation that this account belongs to the same person who has just been arrested, but it seems as if it is, and it deserves discussion in any event.

    As you can see from this page of numerous videos, Sarah Kendzior's (and the other Registanis') theories of the Russian language disappearing and people preferring only their native Uzbek is shot all to hell. Maybe the behaviour is different in a 20-year-old or a 15-year-old (although I don't see that it is), but in this 30-year-old, we see the classic pattern of the post-Soviet space — Russian as in fact a lingua franca, often written in Latin letters, used to be able to be understood to more people — other Russian speakers, whether they are Chechens or Kyrgyz or Russians themselves. The post-Soviet space is a very big space, and the far-flung empire includes Eastern Europe where people also still understand Russian. So this is the language of the Internet, like it or not. You wish people spoke English, and might then be more educated — they aren't.

    To be sure, Fazliddin uses Uzbek too. But he uses Russian more. Maybe it is easier for him to express himself in a language that was one he was forced to learn in school, and it works for the technical things he wants to express — oh, about how to make ammonium nitrate.

    Every youtube you can see in this list is "legal" — there are none of those blank spaces from where Google has pulled some of the most severe jihadist videos as you can see from Tamerlan Tsarnaev's much smaller Youtube list. This list has numerous violent, hateful videos — showing American soldiers being killed; cheering on Chechen resistance leaders and terrorists; showing sorrow for Muslims killed and blaming America — maybe Google isn't as active in removing Russian videos. There are also numerous jihad videos in Uzbek and various classic Islamic videos, i.e. how to wear the hijab, what kind of beard to grow.

    What stands out for me in this stream is the hate. Youtube is an infamous place of hate, with people writing the most hateful comments imagineable, but usually they are anonymous. Here's a guy, under his own name, spending hours and hours writing in Russian, with Latin letters, the most vile statements about Russians.

    Kurbanov's likes are a strange medley of everything from Power Rangers to jihad videos to news about drones to Chechen warriors.

    Drones – License to Kill for example, and a video about the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan — a number shared from Muhammad Foruq in Albania who also collects Islamist videos with Russian subtitles like this one from the Islamic Jihad Creative Studio Badr-at-Tauhid.

    Like the other jihad kids, this guy likes to learn about Free Masonry, the secret society. There are a lot of truck videos, suggesting that like other Uzbek emigres and emigres in general from the FSU, he is driving a truck for a living (Muhtorov did as well).

    But most of all, there is the vile stream of hate to Russians.

    "Russians are fucked," he wrote two weeks ago.  "Chechens are good guys," he wrote about Chechen Diary which is a famous documentary series by the Belarusian film-maker Pavel Sheremet, who himself suffered reprisals in Belarus and Russia for his work covering the Chechen wars.

    Most of all, he feels resentment — to the "new Uzbeks" — affluent Uzbeks in an advertisement that others admired but which prompted him to say "herd of sheep".

    So much does this guy hate Russians — and official Uzbeks like the president's daughter, Gulnara Karimova — that interestingly — for someone who was planning a terrorist act in America — that he has his to say about the Russian spy Anna Chapman:

    Пидаразы а не ученые где вы были 20 лет назад. Говорили абезяны были чумошники руские всё варуют у американских ученых бараны

    That's typed in Cyrillic (other Russian-language comments are in Angrusski with Latin) and he uses a term that is a huge insult, with a kind of variation that means something like "You vile pederasts". "Pederast" is usually the term people in this part of the world use for any gay person, not just child molesters.

    "You are pederasts and not scientists where were you 20 years ago. They say Russian chumoshniki were monkeys, they steal everything from the American scientists, the sheep."

    I see this word "chumoshniki" as in "dirty chumoshniki" on Internet fora in Central Asia all the time and I think it's an ethnic slur based on the word "chum" or nomadic tent or something. Someone in the field may know.

    Every other clip has a comment to the effect that "Russians are monkeys" — a typical insult.

    A clip on "Obama's minimum wage disappointment." Let's crank up the mal-adjusted immigrant theme, shall we, because if you are poor, you get to blow up a building!
    A number of videos sympathetic to the Chechens, devastated in two Chechen wars, and also about the Soviets in Afghanistan.
     
    "You're a fool," writes Fazliddin about a video on Kadyrov, the Putin-installed head of Chechnya. "You listen to the Russians."
    A video on Chechen resistance leader  Shamil Basayev, responsible for a number of terrorist acts and killed by the Russians — Fazliddin writes something like "you Russians come here, we'll fix you."
     
    Here's another sample of his typical comments, this one on a video of a fight between Chechens and the OMON riot police, apparently addressed to the guy who uploaded the video:
    Oleg feliks slishay huella. Вы руские отсосали наши хуйи и дасехпор сасете ачем ти гавориш ебан ебаныч мы вас и ваш омон мочем ти смотришь видео вы руские чмошники проиграли все гасни как и раньше гаснули свами уже переписоватся заподло алкашы недоделоные
    Oleg feliks, listen, are you fucked. You Russians sucked our dicks and still suck them and you fucking tell us you'll fuck us and your OMON, look at the video, you Russian chmoshniki lost, you're dying out, it's even shameful to take your census, you're pathetic alcoholics.
    Interesting — four months ago, Kurbanov wrote a comment about a Russian-language video on female suicide bombers that condemns them:
    Te beliy baran poprobuy is za svoyey religiy pojertvovat saboy mi umerayem I ubevaeym vas. Ati chto zbelal bla svoyey religie kazol huy drachil I drachil balshe. A perebacha tak perebelano chto zombi eto ti I nekto bolshe. Kafiri
    You are a white sheep. Just try to sacrifice yourself for your religion we are dying and we will kill you. And what have you you done with your fucking religion you goat jerking off a cock and more. [?] You're a zombie and nothing else. Kafiri (infidels).
    And yet on another video in this series about the shakhidki (female suicide bombers) he writes matter-of-factly "Because do not fear death as you do." This comment was five months ago; the other one was four months ago, maybe his mind shifted on this issue.
    A video about Zhirinovsky — and more "Russian goats" comments.
    The film "Chechen Trap" gets this comment: "Posholti nahuy beliy russkiy baran i ruskiy rab" which is "Go fuck yourself you white Russian sheep and Russian slave."
    As with other Russian-speakers in the Islamist set on Youtube, he has both videos with naked women, and quite a few videos showing how to wear the hijab.
    Anti-Christian propaganda — the real name of God is Allah in the Bible, Islam in the Bible, etc.
    To Russians who made a propaganda film about how Arabs fighting for Islam on Russian terroritory had been "liquidated," our Idahoan geopolitician has this to say:
    vot eto tochnoe dokozatelstvo chto ve obezani a asobeno ti samaya haroshaya i takimi vi i ostanetes poka ne achnetes i ne primite pravdu zasun tvoyu nauku ne sebe v jad a vzad tvoemu otsu i togda uvas budet nastoyashaya evolitciya a karan dlya ludey a ne dlya odezayan
    Here is exact proof that you are monkeys and you are especially good and you will remain that way until you come to your senses and accept the truth stick your science up your ass and the ass of your father and then you will have real evolution but the Koran is for people and not monkeys.
    Like I said — the wisdom of the ages.
    Fazliddin liked the video about the Taliban's jailbreak and the American soldiers crying after an ambush — a film that in fact someone was trying to use to illustrate what terrorist propaganda is.
    And here's some fuel for the argument that US support of the Karimov job fuels jihad — Fazliddin posts he video, made by a Russian  news team, about renewal of US military aid to Uzbekistan.
    Here's a popular video about an American jihadi. Films on Mecca; chants of "Allohu Akbar" to films about the Islamic resistance.
    Shaikh Muhammad Yasir / Advice to the Ulema and Dua'at. "Stop Killing Muslims in Burma".
    Here's a helpful video with a very helpful disclaimer that really worked1

    9/11 Hijackers – Mohammad Atta and Ziad Jarrah

    BruceLee2343 by BruceLee2343 • 23,673 views

    This video is soley for educational purposes and references and is not by any means used for incitement of terrorism. Or terrorist acts.

    Okay…

    A film about a thief who converted to Islam prompts the comment, "inshaallah kazakistan stanet islamskoy derjavoe" — "Inshallah, Kazakhstan will become an Islamic power."

    The losses of the Russian army in Chechnya…Shariah courts…more how to wear a hijab…

    As for one of the truther videos about how there weren't really planes at the twin towers, our Youtube jihad specialist exclaims:

    "vi shto vse sumashetshie eto teroristi neponatno"
    "What are you saying, are you mad, those are terrorists, don't get it."

    As for a video about the murder of Daniel Sysoev, well, that was alright in Fazliddin's book:

    vapervih etot chelavek ne svetoe a kazol potomushto oh sam nachel oskarblat musulman tak vam enado chumoshniki i vapsheto russkie narod kak vi sami govarili sozdani iz obezani obezyanii garilla martishka aran gunani ponemaete kto vi
    First, this person is not sacred but a goat because he himself began to offend Muslims, you deserve it you chumoshniki and in general the Russian people like you yourself are created from monkeys, you're monkeys, gorillas, chimps, understand who you are
    Power rangers…namaz (Muslim prayers…what is it with Power Rangers and Iron Man and jihadists?!
    About ten months ago, Fazliddin began to watch more 9/11 movies and movies about how to make flash powder, how to make igniters. How to make ammonium nitrate, and videos of massive explosions…
    A video about how to make a car bomb with C4…okay, bring him in…
    There are three or four videos from RFE/RL in Uzbek about Muhtorov, and he has substantial comments in Uzbek — maybe someone can translate those.
  • Asia is Beating the US on the New Silk Road

    When you see deals like this, you have to wonder how serious America is about investing in the New Silk Road — which is how the State Department describes the concept for "prosperity" in the Central Asian region after the withdrawal of US troops in 2014.

    Be sure to follow my curated news clips on Scoop.it called Northern Distribution Network-New Silk Road to see in fact how rocky things are — NATO troops continue to die in battle; a plane crashed recently killed 7; there are terrible scandals about the CIA's cash spent on Karzai and cronies going to waste; there are Pakistani tribal elders demonstrating against the NATO trucking routes. James Dobbins, Obama's new special representative to the region will have a very tough and unenviable assignment; his predecessors include Richard Holbrooke, who died of heart failure and Marc Grossman, who was said to keep a low profile.

    You'd be forgiven for thinking that "the New Silk Road" merely means NATO traffic and business through Afghanistan. It's also the rest of the old Silk Road of the ancient caravan-serai in the countries of Central Asia like Uzbekistan.

    That's where South Korea has just signed a $3.9 billion deal to build a gas complex, according to trend.az:

    Kogas signs agreement for $3.9 billion gas-chemical complex – Trend.az – The
    Government of Uzbekistan and South Korean Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas)
    signed a direct agreement on the construction of the Ustyurt Gas
    Chemical Complex

    Or look at China, which has $15 million just in Jizzak:

    Chinese companies implement $15 million worth projects in Jizzak SIZ – Trend.az –
    Jizzak SIZ was created in March of this year according to the decree of the President of Uzbekistan.

    I'm not suggesting that it's a good idea for American companies to invest in this region, given the corruption and massive human rights violations — which in fact are not good for business, as the same corrupt institutions that violate people's civil rights to stay in power are the same ones that take bribes or suddenly confiscate your investment; they are intertwined.

    The State Department can't really avoid reporting these bad things about the poor investment climate in Uzbekistan where Oxus Gold saw its stake confiscated and were forced to leave at a loss and where Turkish companies have been hounded, suspected of fueling religious extremism, and expelled, and there have been other debacles, for example, the Germans not getting their debts repaid. W

    With GM reducing its car sales in Russia — the market for the Uzbek-manufactured vehicles — I wonder how this joint venture, originally inherited from South Korea's Daewoo when it was taken over by GM, will be impacted. GM says it has doubled production in Uzbekistan in in 7 years. Even so, reportedly 94% of new cars in Uzbekistan are made by GM.

    Paging Mitt Romney to ask whether this helps or hurts American jobs for GM, which declared bankruptcy in the recession, got some government-backed bail-out loans but then claimed to have paid them back in full after restructuring in which numerous workers were fired, and some Congressmen questioned their pay-back as it came from other tax-payer funds:

    GM sold 121,584 vehicles in Uzbekistan last year, making the
    country the eighth-largest market for its Chevrolet brand. The
    joint venture produced more than 225,000 cars last year and will
    raise output to 250,000 units this year.

    At one level, if it keeps the company in buiness, even if the jobs go to Uzbeks, it's a plus.

    But on the other hand, the reality is, China, South Korea, even India are investing more in this region and apparently looking the other way when it comes to corruption and human rights problems that ultimately will haunt them. They are spending large amounts of money. And this is now a foreign policy fact of life which means that as the US "pivots" toward China for reasons I can never really grasp, they will find themselves with the harsh reality that the regions of the world that they think are "pacified" or "taking care of themselves" or merely "withdrawn from" are what are being Asia's powerhouse.

    And maybe the job is just to provide a bulwark to Central Asian leaders — who in the long term may become better as the tyrants age out — so they have choices besides being taken over by China — and of course, have a hedge against Russia, which has also had its failures in a region increasingly turning anti-Moscow:

    Not every foreign investor has met with success in
    Uzbekistan. Russia's top mobile phone operator, MTS,
    which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, has written off
    $1.1 billion after its Uzbek licence was permanently revoked on
    Aug. 13.

    There's a certain lobbying force in the US which seems to be over-friendly to dictators — and gets its way despite the objectsions of human rights groups and even others in government. Says the Asia Times:

    It was reported that the American business
    delegation, headed by Carolyn Lamm, chairwoman of
    the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce
    (AUCC), and including representatives of over 30
    US companies such as Boeing, Solar Turbines,
    General Motors, Merk, General Electric Energy,
    Anadarko, Zeppelin International, Case New
    Holland, Nukem and others, attended the business
    forum.

    Lamm is former head of the American Bar Association and you wonder why she doesn't get more challenge from her colleagues in the ABA, but then, the ABA is not really a human rights organization but a vehicle to expend USAID money for "training" that usually enriches US contractors.

    Senior Uzbek government officials
    in charge of the economic sector, including
    ministers of finance, the economy, foreign
    economic relations, investments and trade and
    other high level officials, were also in
    attendance to brief their guests on the state of
    Uzbek economy and to discuss possible investment
    and economic cooperation.

    The forum has
    been very successful, according to Uzbekistan's
    National News Agency, as the two sides reached
    understanding on 21 economic and investment
    projects covering areas such as machinery, metal
    processing, energy, oil and gas mining,
    petrochemicals, electrotechnical processes,
    uranium mining, pharmaceuticals, and others, with
    a total value of US$2.8 billion.

    Obviously, if the total value of US projects here is $2.8 billion, that doesn't even equal one project from South Korea noted above.

    Fozil Mashrab at the Asia Times last year interestingly said that Uzbekistan's "look East" policy seeking investment from places like South Korea or Malaysia was only a function of Western reticence, given that the West suspended ties with Uzbekistan after the Andijan massacre, when hundreds of people were gunned down by Uzbek troops for protesting injustices in 2005 after an opposition jail-break in which police were killed.

    But even though the US restored ties and even some forms of military aid, subject to review, it hasn't stopped the "look East" policy in fact, which I think was never going anywhere.

     

  • EurasiaNet’s Trilling Does a Hatchet Job on His NGO Colleagues

    Karimov rumours
    A photo that is implied to be of Karimov on March 28, 2013 at his residence in Tashkent. Photo by gov.uz presidential news service.

    Idrisov
    A photo from the meeting he is said to have taken with the foreign minister of Kazakhstan, with different wallpaper. The news story says that Karimov received Idrisov. Photo by gov.uz.

    David Trilling of EurasiaNet has a piece called "Anatomy of a Heart-Attack Rumor" that is supposed to impress us with the leet reporting skillz of "real journalists" who are able to cut through the fog of emigre and NGO obfuscation to get us "the real story" — which is that rumours about the possible heart attack of Uzbek strong man Islam Karimov may be unfounded because most seem to trace to a single emigre source.

    Indeed, the state media is reporting that Karimov met with the foreign minister of Kazakhstan on March 28 seeming to indicate that he is really just fine — even if we need more proof, as we can trust fellow dictators to close ranks on a story like this. Although those nicely-sharpened pencils in the photo can't tell us whether they were sharpened on March 28 of this year or 10 years ago, the difference in the shades of wall paper between Karimov's picture and the picture of the minister could hold a clue to a more favourable presentation.

    So yeah, we get it that news is so hard to get out of Uzbekistan that you study wallpaper in official state photos for clues. That's my point — about how absurd it can get. And seemingly Trilling's — you can't trust biased NGo critics of Karimov.

    His blog post falls flat, however, because EurasiaNet is essentially yet another NGO, funded by Soros like all the other NGOs in this field, and as biased as they can be in its selectivity. That's why you have to ask why this hit job was so necessary.

    Yeah, we get it that the emigres have an axe to grind, and NGOs like CPJ, even if very careful — and they were, with this story! — can report rumors without any facts behind them as they seek to make a larger advocacy point about the awful treatment of journalists in jail in Uzbekistan.

    But hey, when it comes to an aging and not-so-healthy dictator in a closed society, that's okay to do, you know? Even Trilling admits that it's hard to get news out of this society.

    Trilling also too hastily dismisses CPJ's all-important second piece of information from the Kazah opposition newspaper Republika that probably convinced them to run with the story — that Karimov's daughter had rushed back home. To counter that perfectly legitimate take on the daughter's travel, Trilling makes it seem like as UNESCO's diplomat from Uzbekistan, that she would go home frequently and we shouldn't read meaning into every little trip. Huh? No, she wouldn't. She lives in Paris. And with good reason, because there is no more grand business for her or her more infamous sister, Gulnara, inside Uzbekistan as there once was.

    And with the wonders of email and Skype, she can keep in touch with her minders — such as they are — in the government back home and of course her father and other relatives and doesn't need to physically return  home for instructions — that in fact she'd get from the Uzbek ambassador in Paris in any event, most likely, if necessary (it's pretty much a ceremonial job).

    There's also trouble enough in the Karimov empire even without heart attacks.

    We all get it about Muhammad Solih. I have no relationship to him or any particular use from him, and have never even met him, as far as I recall. I think he's been sly at times in portraying him as opposition to Karimov without explaining the theocratic Islamist tendencies he represents in that opposition. (BTW, the "People's Movement of Uzbekistan' is a mainly collapsed and failed umbrella movement that he tried to start; he was originally known as the head of the opposition Erk or "Freedom" Party).

    But this is par for the course with such regimes. The oppositions these regimes get are often as bad as, or worse, than the regimes themselves — a fact that those regimes never tire of informing you — and gleefully so. They like to keep things that way, in fact, and at times artificially incite it. They especially love to keep the groups quarelling with each other — and for good measure, in the case of Uzbekistan, there seem to have been not only dirty tricks and discrediting and intimidation campaigns, but even assassinations of opposition figures abroad.

    The Uzbek opposition isn't unmindful of the capacities for anonymous social media to do its work — but hey, so is the MNB or secret police of Uzbekistan.

    I instantly thought of another "anatomy of a rumour" that David Trilling in fact exploited to knock on the opposition and the human rights activists, instead of even conceding that there was just as much a chance that the intelligence agencies planted it as the opposition.

    That was the story of the "suicide student" in Uzbekistan who existed only on Facebook, as it happens.  I took part in directly by reporting it skeptically and fully — unlike Sarah Kendzior of Registan.net who reported it from her perch as fact — and weeped for the woman who was killed by telling too much about herself on Facebook, supposedly.

    I reported on the story as one that the human rights groups in Uzbekistan were researching in good faith — after all it sounded serious — a woman studying abroad is summoned for interrogation when she went home, and threatened, and then winds up committing suicide. Say, Registan not only reported that one faithfully and breathlessly, in ways they never report on human rights stories most of the time, just like they reported on the threats of the MNB against two students they adopted. When Kendzior did concede it was a hoax, both her post and the numerous nasty comments under it took the regime's perspective

    When Trilling's "freelancer" (and you know who you are!) then turned in an astoundingly bad-faith piece on this hoax blaming soley the opposition — and worse, claiming that a human rights activist, Elena Urlayeva, was "gullible," I sought to dispel this hit job. I was stunned at the curious willingness to believe a known intelligence-related publication uzmetronom.com as a source — and creduously, as they claimed that instantly, they had accessed not only Uzbek authorities — understandable, given their role as a tip sheet for such authorities — but German border authorities, a stretch even for a government somewhat disposed to be friends with Uzbekistan for the sake of their military base in Termez.

    I had to wonder about that — but certainly there was never any reason to trash Urlayeva, who was just doing her job and who exhibited extraordinary persistence in researching this story on the ground, where it mattered (unlike all the other swaggering Western journos) and who herself ultimately pronounced it as a hoax — as the story continued to live, through other odd permutations involving RFE/RL, BBC, and a strange couple bearing the tale — with the woman finally denouncing her partner as an intelligence agent.

    There, too, Registan rushed to tell us all it was the opposition, if not Salih, others, and never conceded that it could just as likely be intelligence operatives stirring up trouble — the claim of the agent who is sent to assassinate someone and then turns to support him against the regime is an old, old meme in this region and in the KGB-style operations. We may never know. But there's no reason to impugn the opposition or the human rights activists in these stories, as there is no evidence that they concocted it, and in fact researched it and ran it to ground. Would the opposition be really stupid enough to make a fake FB page with a fake (and strange) occupation as working for their organization (!) and claiming the person was interrogated and killed themselves when there was no body and no evidence, and they'd only be shown up as fakers? Why would they deliberately do that to themselves?

    In this story of the heart-attack, we may never know, but again, you have to ask: why would the opposition put out a story easily shown to be untrue if a) they really believed it to be true b) merely reported what sources they thought were reliable told them? Couldn't it just as likely be Karimov's rivals inside the regime in Tashkent, who surely exist? Trilling's implication here as with the suicide story was to imply that if all sources lead to Solih, he is "making up stuff". And maybe he is. But showing him as the source of a rumour hasn't achieved the "anatomy" that Trilling imagines. It just shows that exile leaders believe stories told them, or feel they need to publicize them. It's not like Karimov is young and in the pink of health.

    Zakon.kz, an independent Kazakh website which Trilling tries to slam as yet another gullible purveyor of Solih-based rumours in fact ran a story (that Trilling links to!) with the headline "President's Daughter Denies Rumours of His Heart Attack; In Fact He's Dancing". Trilling did not speak Russian a year ago  — he may have learned more of it in the last year. He should know enough, even using Google-translator (which is what all the non-Russian-speaking reporters at EurasiaNet do) to see that the headline is not about purveying a Solih rumor, but the opposite.  The story is in fact about a heated Twitter exchange that @realgoogoosha — Karimova — had with someone who questioned her about her father's status — she said he was dancing at Novruz. To be sure, we don't seem to have the kind of lovely state TV footage of Karimov dancing that we had last year, that also showed our own Amb. George Krol dancing at the mass Novruz event.

    Says Trilling:

    That’s when the rumor really took off. Who went next isn’t clear, but
    it’s now all over dozens of Russian-language sites covering the former
    Soviet Union – mostly verbatim from Solih. Today Vechernii Bishkek cites Zakon.kz in its lede, noting that another source has come forward. But the Zakon.kz report cites Solih and Rosbalt (so Solih) and Newsru.com, which cites Solih. So Vechernii Bishkek's second source is via Solih.

    Here's what else Zakon.kz says — hardly sounding like the dupes Trilling implies:

    Сведения об инфаркте Каримова распространил сайт «Народное движение
    Узбекистана». Информация была не раз опровергнута (в частности, информированным
    источником РИА «Новости»), однако один из главных политических оппонентов
    нынешнего президента настаивает на версии сердечного приступа.

    The news about Karimov's heart attack was disseminated by the site "Popular Movement of Uzbekistan". The information has been repeatedly rebutted (including by the information source RIA Novosti); however, one of the main political opponents of the current president has insisted on the story of the heart attack.

    CPJ merely took the opportunity to ask questions about media freedom in any event and clearly state that rumours were swirling. So why the hit job on them? Not for the first time from the Friends of Registan crowd either, as CPJ suffered a savaging by Joshua Foust merely for reporting on the way in which the US administration differentiates between Belarus and Uzbekistan in its advocacy.

    In this case, Trilling could have called up his fellow Soros-funded NGO and asked for a comment and clarification before making it seem as if they are bad journalists. They aren't. They are reporting on what regional media is saying and making it clear that it is only that — reports, allegations.

    So this sort of snark from a swaggering non-profit reporter who himself isn't in Uzbekistan just doesn't seem merited, given in fact how CPJ and its sources, which Trilling mischaracterized, really told the story:

    CPJ cites Kazakhstan’s Respublika, which cites, you guessed it, Solih. And Rosbalt. So Solih. Respublika adds that Karimov’s younger daughter (the one who sued a French newspaper
    for calling her a “dictator’s daughter”), Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva, has
    rushed home in recent days. (As Uzbekistan’s permanent representative to
    UNESCO, Karimova-Tillyaeva presumably visits Uzbekistan from time to
    time.) CPJ also cites Lenta.ru, which cites Solih and Rosbalt. 
    So, in other words, we have Solih – a Karimov rival who fled
    Uzbekistan almost 20 years ago – as the only source. Unfortunately,
    that's how we get a lot of our news out of tightly controlled Uzbekistan
    these days: from single sources who are often abroad.

    When the word comes about Karimov's real illness or demise, it may be from these single sources who are most devoted to watching and most stand to benefit from transition — so it's not somehow inappropriate to listen to them and report on what they say. And neither regional opposition newspapers or CPJ did anything wrong.

    As for this Church Lady admonition at the end — one has to marvel at that sort of strange chiding given the numerous pieces gleefully enjoying the dictator's daughter's demise and of course speculating on the succession — including one I co-authored with an OSI program director at his behest more than a year ago.

    Certainly, Karimov’s incapacitation or death would be big news, possibly ushering in a struggle for power. Until we see the man in person, there’s no sure-fire way to confirm that something isn’t up. But the sourcing on the heart-attack rumors is desperately thin. It’s almost like someone is wishing Karimov would have a heart attack.

    Let me also point out that in Russian, as the language this might get reported in anywhere along the chain, "serdechny pristup" doesn't mean necessarily a heart attack as we understand it. Many's the Russian friend we've had who would tell us in the morning about their "heart spell" using this term, who might even call from a hospital, but by evening be available for hopping around bars or restaurants, smoking furiously. Karimov may have only felt faint if he danced at Novruz.

    EurasiaNet turns out stuff like this so they can seem "balanced" and go on pretending they aren't an advocacy operation. I've never understood the need to do this, given that they are a nonprofit funded from a single source, and it's okay to be a "community journalist" or a page where a lot of "citizen journalists" have their say. If you want to be hard-nosed about the five Ws, you'd go to work for AFP or AP or Reuters, but Trilling prefers to have a safety Eurasianet.

    I can just hear Justin Burke and the other EurasiaNet editors and managers grumping that they are a professional news operation and can't be expected to just cut and paste press releases from avid NGO colleagues who might be a little more eager than they are to report the demise of dictators (if Central Asia were just another region, George Soros would have no reason to support a nonprofit news agency about it, and indeed he may be expected, like other funders and the US government, to shift his focus from this region after US troops leave to China and the Middle East along with the other pivoters of the world.)

    Yet they are selective in their exposes — this gotcha was apparently too glee-producing to pass up, but EurasiaNet never criticizes Human Rights Watch, e.g. the months and months of silence they maintained as their office in Tashkent was put under pressure and finally expelled — indeed, I was  asked to observe an embargo on this development. EurasiaNet writes about reports on itself or Soros operations abroad as funded by Soros, but they never write that HRW has a $100 million gift from Soros, and is Soros-funded like themselves for work in Central Asia.

    In fact, if there were a disclaimer about every Soros-funded operation featured in EurasiaNet, the world might see it for what it is, a foundation newsletter about events in the field. And it's okay to be such a thing, and I myself was once proud to work for such an entity. Yet some of the swaggering journalists there have greater aspirations and can shore up their own flagging egos over the fact that they don't work in "real" commercial news operations by stepping on other NGOs.

    The reporters at EurasiaNet are also not above merely conveying the official media as proof that the opposition and NGOs are "lying" — even though we have far less grounds to believe them, knowing of their constant manipulations.

  • Scant Output On Human Rights in Uzbekistan after Foreign Minister’s Washington Trip

    Kerry Kamilov
    US State Department. Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov and Secy State John Kerry, March 7, 2013.

    As we know, before the Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov came to the US last week,  Sarah Kendzior did her best to convince us that it was pointless to raise human rights problems with him, and Human Rights Watch nevertheless came up with a whole concrete list of what they wanted Secretary of State John Kerry to raise.

    Mike Posner, the outgoing Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights, recently criticized his fellow NGOs, now that he had been on the other side of the table from them, as needing to become more concrete in their proposals and focused on policy to reduce abuses rather than merely documenting human rights violations.

    I think the human rights industry would still do well to keep documenting because there really are wars over the facts, especially on strategic countries like Uzbekistan, and because the US government does really keep resisting doing even partially the right thing due to geopolitical constraints and exigencies. Especially when there's a system in place to give military aid or not depending on whether there are mass human rights abuses, you have to play the game of documenting, naming and shaming and not getting sucked into partial "solutions".

    Why can't we document human rights, guys?

    Oh, dear, I remember the CATO Institute essay of 1979 that spoke of "the endless chasing after human rights violations," i.e. the-then infant human rights monitoring industry that seemed to endlessly document, publicize, name and shame, but never effect the kind of systemic changes of democracy and free enterprise that CATO and others would see as pre-requisites for getting human rights results. Then, we had 30 years of democracy movements and colour revolutions and regime changes and Arab springs — and then everybody went "off" democracy again because it didn't have enough rule of law, you know, human rights. As Democracy Lab's latest sour-on-democracy piece lets us know.

    So Human Rights Watch does come up with a list of concrete proposals, but it is based on documentation. To be sure, some of it is the sort of "be good! right now!" stuff that always sounds so ridiculous, especially when it's selective. And when Melinda Haring and Michael Cecire essentially say, "Your democracies turned out crappy! You must have the rule of law right now! Stop, thief!" it also seems kind of, well, hortatory. Where are those concrete proposals that Mike Posner so desperately wanted?  In fairness, there are some in the Democracy Lab piece of the incremental USAID-style "rule-of-law" program variety, like "let's make Georgia's notion of plea-bargaining more like the West's" or "let's praise Georgia for amnestying officials with non-violent offenses from the previous government even if that's not quite the ROL per se". And…that's just it. The things to do in these countries still under Russia's shadow with creepy intelligence agencies from the Soviet era often amount only to those little incremental steps.

    But having concrete proposals and the human rights rather than the democracy focus means you do have to keep documenting, and keep exposing, and keep saying "be good!" about things like child and adult forced labour in Uzbekistan, and it is absolutely perfectly fine to propose as a policy to the United States that it stop giving Tashkent a pass on this. After all, the US has laws — it has the trafficking statutes that require the US not to do business with countries using slave labour. And it has a whole system where countries get automatically downgraded in their status if they don't follow the proposed reforms — often easy things like at least sign laws or at least make task forces, the sort of anodyne stuff that multilaterals and governments come up with.

    Yet the US doesn't do that with Uzbekistan, but gives it a pass for the simple reason that we need it due to the war in Afghanistan — to get supplies in, and more to the point now, to get soldiers and expensive war equipment out. So here we all are, this won't last forever (past 2014?) and we need to just keep asking and not worry about the futility. Remember, "For us, there is only the trying/the rest is not our business?"

    So what happened?

    Well, there was a photo op, then secret talks. Then the noon day press briefing. And a query:

    QUESTION: Can we get a readout on the Uzbek Foreign Minister
    meeting, specifically on any human rights issues that Secretary Kerry
    would have raised?

    MS. NULAND: Well, as Secretary Kerry said himself in the spray
    before the meeting, we always raise our human rights concerns and our
    view with the Uzbeks that the more progress they can make in democratic
    rights, human rights in Uzbekistan, the more stable and prosperous and
    secure the country will be. I’m not going to get into details of the
    bilateral other than to say, as we always do, it came up this morning.

    I checked with the US Embassy in Tashkent on Twitter, noting that this read-out was rather scant. Answer:

    @usembtashkent

    @catfitz not much to share at the moment. pls follow our website postings and/or tweets.

    Share.

    Okay.

    Here's a piece making the arguments by Bennett Freeman and Mark Lagon; the former is part of the businesses, unions and NGOs forming the cotton campaign; the latter is a former US administration official responsible for trafficking issues.

    Senior U.S. officials need to make clear to the Uzbek government that to
    avoid sanctions it must agree to allow the ILO to monitor the harvest
    this fall. The ILO is the most competent international body to determine
    the true scope of the problem and to begin working with Tashkent on a
    serious plan to address it.

    It's good that a very clear call has gone out to make the condition for the prevention of a downgrading essentially the invitation to the ILO to inspect the harvest — seriously, not as just some dialogue in the capital, but having experts go out to all the regions.

    There's some faint notion this is gettable, because the Uzbek government already quietly works with UNICEF to allow UNICEF to do some sample monitoring and make some recommendations — although this is very hushed up by UNICEF, Tashkent, and governments — and in any event is not a substitute for serious labour conditions monitoring such as the ILO does.

    But while it's great that the focus has finally been brought more forcibly to bear publicly on the Obama administration by these largely Obama-supporting groups, the US isn't the leading actor in this drama. Uzbekistan, Russia, India, China, Pakistan are. We need every single one of them for our other drama involved in getting the troops out, especially Russia

    So I think NGOs and the Soros gang need to step up much more comprehensibly in a full-bore, comprehensive agenda on Russia-US relations, not just Uzbek-US relations.  More direct and international focus and coalition building is needed on the ILO. But since they tend to always fall back to doing American things more than any other, here's what they simply must do: They need to call on Obama not to go to the G20 meeting in St. Petersburg coming up — and there is reason to do this because Putin dissed Obama by not coming to the US to the G8 meeting last year, but sending Medvedev instead.

    It's a no-brainer, easy to do, costs nothing, and is an awareness campaign. Mr. President, don't go to Pitir because the human rights violations for which Russia is responsible abroad and at home are so great, that you should not lend them your luster as leader of the free world.

    For extra credit, overcome the usual reluctance to rain on the sports parade and call to boycott the Sochi Olympics — or call on Obama not to lend his presence to that jamboree, either. He need not go. He can send Kerry. This is how you build the Wall of Shame around Russia that needs to be built.

    They need to make a coalition of groups — cite Syria first and foremost because Russia is the greatest factor in supporting mass crimes of humanity there; they need to cite Russia's own abysmal record citing the Magnitsky List; and they need to cite the Caucasus crimes which are massive — more than 400 disappearances even by the state's own admission; and then they need to cite things like Russia's purchase of Uzbek cotton; Russia's army bases in the region fraught with human rights violations such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, etc.. The stakes are too high, the abuses too large to keep pulling punches, giving Russia a politically-correct or timid pass, and focusing with the avidity of safe surrogacy on the US. "Blame America First".

    I've been critical at times of the Cotton Campaign, where I myself worked for two years, because it has tended to focus on reachable Western targets with fears of litigation or media negativity, like garment companies, and not focus on the actual buyers of most of the cotton, like Russia, India, and Pakistan — or the international bodies where Russia and Uzbekistan are a member and need to be challenged in that context, like the ILO.I'm glad to see this call for more work at the ILO, but it still has the feeling of the "buddy approach" or "working with" Uzbekistan — as if it had good will! as if it were going to do that! — instead of pressuring it to change directly.

    I've also felt that a campaign that always seems to focus on the #firstworldproblems of buying a dress at H&N or not (we can't really be sure if Uzbek cotton is or isn't in their supply chain) and evil corporations was more about the left's eternal fascination with undermining capitalism by seizing on its sins  than about human rights. There was also the lesser focus on the actual monitors in Uzbekistan, who, like the tiny cotton pickers, earned a fraction of the salary of Western campaigners, and the unjustifiable position of focusing only on children as being cuter — although it's a problem for adults, too. I felt this campaign just wasn't really grasping the nettle.

    To be sure, recently, now under new management, I saw this campaign do its first really successful media campaigns — first around the evergreen of Gulnara Karimova's antics, which is low-hanging fruit, but also the harder nut — getting mainstream network TV — CNN in the US — to finally pick up the story and do it right — featuring the children, the monitors like Elena Urlaeva, the success of enlisting some corporations, and then need to get Uzbekistan itself to do more and for those countries buying to be part of the pressure on them. This is one of the best things ever done on the largest state-run forced labour program in the world

    I don't say these campaigns are easy or that trying to move ILO resolutions isn't sometimes futile. I just think the problem of Uzbekistan is fundamentally not about Western corporations and their evils, even if they contributed, or about using "soft law" such as the OECD (I think that action was a flop because it silenced NGOs from their critique while reconciliation arrangements were made with corporations that weren't really that culpable).

    I think the problem with Uzbekistan is fundamentally about the Soviet past, the dependency on Russia (for the first time now we see the remittances mainly from labor migrants in Russia are higher than the income from cotton, see?) and not about evil Western capitalism or venal Western governments. The eternally popular Western NGO focus on these actors means that it becomes "about itself". The lefty labour and cause groups that populate this campaign could never bite down hard and blame state socialism for Uzbekistan's problem and advocate a free market — that goes against their religion. You always feel with this analysis that if Uzbekistan stopped using child labour, and paid the workers a living wage to hand-pick cotton in the fields, the left in the Western world would be happy to now buy the results of their labour for their infants' cloth diaper program, rather than worry that these toilers couldn't live a life of lattes and ipads such as they enjoy themselves — and which they can enjoy more of if they go and work construction in Moscow.

    Meanwhile, what's the real solution? Because even if a million girls don't buy their Gap shirts or whatever, it won't matter.

    The labor migrants could be doing the work that children are performing for free or for pennies, but they can't make a living with such back-breaking work so they go abroad. The Uzbek government has wised up and put out less kids visibly in the fields and made their teachers, policemen, soldiers, factory workers etc. work for free — which was always just as bad and the campaign always should have focused on that too, but opted for the cuter kid angle.

    But what the real problem back of all this is, is communism and Soviet-style control of the market. Farmers cannot sell their cotton on an open market. They have quotas which they turn over to the government, and the government sells it. They get loans for seeds and supplies — but they can't meet the payments or even get the loans. They are in a double bind, can't meet quotas or meet loan payments and use child or day labour as a result. If you suddenly mechanized this industry more, the way USAID is busy trying to do, you exacerbate the situation by depriving some families of that teenage labour and soldier labour that they really need to supplement the remittances. You also screw the farmers over as less of them are needed. Where are you going to put all those people, USAID? In prison, as suddenly "Islamic fundamentalists" as the government has done with about 5000 or more of their neighbours?!

    This is not an easy nut to crack, but the ideology that focuses only on Western perfidy or US government hypocrisy and not Russian complicity is really wrong. Yes, it's hard to focus on Russia. Nobody lets you do it. When you  try to do it, everywhere in the world, you are told that you are an evil war mongering anti-Islamic imperialist blah blah. Of course, it's not your military that killed the overwhelming majority of people in Afghanistan — it's the Taliban. So here we all are.

    It's a muddle and not easy but you have to keep hitting hard on it and not get caught up in what the State Department or the Registanis say fretting about realisms. They take care of themselves without you. There really isn't any reason the US can't change their trafficking rating and downgrade Uzbekistan. They can compartmentalize the realtionship because we all know that business really doesn't mean that much.

    I also think that the key to this is labor rights and the ILO and that more effort has to go back into that venue, as frustrating as it is, mainly simply trying to line up all the delegations of friendly countries, trade unions, and employers for the eventual vote that you will eventually get on the Commission of Inquiry or other relevant action. Only a labor rights approach — as distinct from the more hypothetical hate campaign on evil corporations who buy exploited cotton — will more directly save victims of trafficking and forced labor and the remittance workers in deplorable positions, especially in the nearer abroad like Kazakhstan — and that means slogging at the UN and OSCE even though this is a long proposition. What else is there?

     

  • Will There Be Conflict in Central Asia After US Troop Withdrawal? Interview with Me in CA-News (English Original)

    Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) propaganda video. Comments on Youtube suggest they get some resistance from their compatriots.

    I was delighted to give an interview to CA-News, which is a Central Asian news online publication based in Bishkek associated with AKIpress.org  (in Russian).

    But because there are a half dozen or so mistakes in the translation that makes me sound like I'm saying the opposite of what I actually said [fortunately fixed within a day!], and because not everybody reads Russian, I'm reprinting the original Russian questions and my answers in English below. I've asked them to make the corrections. I don't mind, because this is an important independent publication and I support its mission. I think they do a good job.

    I'm not sure how they came to ask me, a person who is not a formal expert on the region, for such an extensive interview, but they did, perhaps in search of independent analysis.

    Although I've spent a career of 35 years in this field where I have travelled extensively throughout Eurasia, and lived and worked in Russia and travelled frequently to Russia, Belarus, Poland in particular for OSCE, I have never been to a single Central Asian country. I worked in the Central Eurasian Program at OSI for six years without such a boon. It's not for any lack of desire; it just so happened that at different times when I was actually invited to go to Kyrgzystan when I worked with various human rights groups, or Kazakhstan when I was a public member at the OSCE, it simply happened that I couldn't go. I doubt I could get a visa to Turkmenistan, having written critically about it for OSI for six years, or Uzbekistan, where I also wrote critically for two years — and of course before that, I edited two weeklies for RFE/RL and other publications for many years.

    Even so, I study the regional Russian-language and English-language press very carefully, go to all the conferences I can, and interview people directly either when they visit the US, or when I see them at international conferences or over email and Skype. That's certainly not a substitute for a personal visit, where you can get the feel of things and have many important one-on-one conversations. But in lack of direct exposure on my skin of the winds of Central Asia, I'm no different than most pundits who have either never been there, or have been there only infrequently, and don't even speak any regional languages.

    I do think there's an advantage to having a critical independent view of this critical region. I think those not in formal structures can speak out more loudly about the corrosive effect on human rights that the US and Europe have had; the ongoing pernicious role that Russia plays; and the troublesome future of Chinese domination — not to mention the ways in which the oppressive autocratic regimes play these factors off against each other to keep themselves in power and their people miserable.

    You have nothing to lose if your job does not depend on some certain perspective. I find that the status quo in the human rights movement is to minimize the threat of terror or unrest and play up the awfulness of the regimes. That's a whitewash, given the groups in the region that have many, many more thousands of adherents that Western-style human rights groups — like Hizb-ut-Tahir.

    As for Washington, I find that far from there being the "neo con" belief that a) there is rampant terrorism and a horrible threat of Islamization and/or b) some imminent "Arab Spring" coming, there is actually nothing of the sort. Oh, there's that one paper at Jamestown Foundation or something, but that's it.

    That is, those on the left, the "progressives" and the "RealPolitik" adherents constantly pontificate as if there were some horrid neo-cons or hawks or conservatives saying these things, but in fact these groups, which have dwindling influence in any event, either are following RealPolitik themselves or don't even care at all about this region (mainly the latter).

    So in my view, there is this whole fake industry of anti-anti commentary, which runs like this:

    "There isn't any Islamic threat at all in this region, perish the thought, it's just a poor region with dictators who in fact go overboard suppressing legitimate Muslim activity"

    "There's no Muslim fervour in fact, these states are Sovietized and secularized".

    "Nothing is going to happen when troops leave, it is all wildly exaggerated and people who say that seem not to realize that the US troops are the conflict generator, not the IMU"

    "Russia has little influence any more in this region; it has less gas extraction, it has less money, it has length troop strength and its efforts to make a Warsaw Pact — the CSTO — or a Soviet Re-Union with a customs union have mainly failed."

    And so on.

    While each one of those statements can be true up to a point, they also lead to this strange endorsement of the status quo in these regions that in fact ends up serving the regimes, in my view.

    Russia's influence is considerable, and it has been behind unrest by its action (as it was in Bakiyev's ouster and its threats to Atambayev) or inaction (with the pogroms in Osh). The remittance economies are huge — for the labour migrants from Tajikistan in particular, but increasingly Uzbekistan and even Turkmenistan. That means that Russia winds up dominating the lives of these countries through some of their most vulnerable citizens — not just the mainly male workers but the females left back home as head of households with children. The Russian language did not disappear from this region, even if it is taught less, because dominating Russian mainstream media, and Russian-controlled social media like mail.ru and Vkontakte, are very big factors in the media space in this region.

    As for terrorism, sure, it gets exaggerated and the regimes "do it to themselves". But there are also real terrorist acts that occur. There is a sense that the presence of US troops in Afghanistan has ensured a kind of "frozen conflict" in this region that isn't on the official list of the frozen conflicts. The IMU has been tied up mainly fighting NATO troops. So when they go away, then what? Where do they go, those 5000 or 8000 or however many fighters there are? (And probably there are analysts saying they are only 2000, but who really knows, what, you did a door-to-door survey, guys?) Will they peacefully melt back into the countryside and farm happily? Or what? I think it's okay to look at that question critically without being branded as a terrorism hysteric.

    Ditto the question of "Arab Spring". No one thinks there is any Arab Spring coming to Central Asia. I don't know of a single pundit or analyst saying this. Yet again, there is the "anti-anti-" industry making this claim, mainly from the Registan gang. The problem is that when you adopt that scornful skepticism, you stop seeing reality when it appears. As Paul Goble put it, there is a way in which talking about the Arab Spring is a little spring in itself. And there are signs of unrest here and there, and you don't know how they will turn out.

    Remember, the same gang at Registan — Sarah Kendzior and Katy Pearce — were predicting with firm determination that discussion of oppression on the Internet was causing a chill in use, a decline in use, and even the shuttering of popular discussion pages. They implied that there would never be any Twitter revolution in Azerbaijan, that it was going to be slow and incremental and we shouldn't artificially speed it up by over-amplifying human rights cases.

    Yet thousands of people keep demonstrating in Azerbaijan despite the news of repression, and they keep using Internet tools to make their case — tools that Pearce is now blithely measuring with machinopology as if she had never written that Internet use would be chilled by such expression. It hasn't been. Facebook membership boomed. Will this "spring" last forever? I truly doubt it. Not with potential European and American oil interests — and actually existing Russian and Iranian oil interests — in this mix. Everybody will blame the West for the crackdown in Azerbaijan that is likely to be inevitable and thorough, and fume at the regime-tropic USAID grantees that they ignored last year (or even cooperated with) as the smoking gun of American perfidy.  But it will be Russia's money and military role that will be the bigger factor.

    This is how I'm seeing it, in the end: To the extent Russian wants or needs conflict, or is weakened and can't efficiently prevent or manage conflict, there will be conflict in Central Asia after NATO troops are withdrawn.

    Part of that resistance to Russian state intrusion will be Islamic ferment. If analysts were busy telling everyone these were secular Soviet states and Arab Spring can't happen, they will be uncomfortably confronted with the reality that Islam is a great organizing tool in countries where it has historic roots, and this need not be seen as a threat to the West. Yet because they've been engaged in such an industry telling us it's not a threat to the West, they will be embarrassed when in fact it will be — as they emblematically were when the Egyptian woman activist just feted at the State Department turned out to be such an anti-American hater, 9/11 celebrator, and horrid anti-semite on Twitter, and not because she was hacked — a fiction State had to indulge in to save face.

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